DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
The final full weekend of winter brings a stormy Saturday and blustery Sunday to our region. There are not really any adjustments to be made regarding today’s storm system. The trend we’d seen east on all guidance settled to a stop and we have a frontal boundary pressing eastward through the area today while up along it will rocket a developing low pressure area. The whole “bomb cyclone” thing has been mentioned, but I don’t really feel there was a need for the term this time – nor do I really ever feel there is since I don’t like it as it’s used as a hype tool, and has no real value in meteorological discussion. Yes, the low pressure area will start to intensify rapidly, and probably will deepen about 24-25 mb in 24 hours from now to early Sunday, but it goes by us later today as a moderately strong low, passing over the Cape Cod area. The “bomb-out” aspect adds to our blustery winds for tonight and Sunday, but doesn’t have much of an impact on our sensible weather today. Often, the public upon hearing that term will then be lead to believe in all aspects the event is going to be maximum potential. This is why further explanation, clarification, and probably just leaving the stupid term out is a better approach. So onto that further explanation about our sensible weather. We’re mild, and this starts as rain for us today, along with some areas of fog, some areas with fairly dense fog in fact. The rain is in more showery form here initially, and will solidify a bit more as the boundary moves through and the low center organizes as it moves by the region later today. During this time, colder air is waiting just behind the frontal boundary to turn the rain over to snow from west to east, with a narrow strip of sleet in some areas where the colder air gets in at the surface first. But as this process takes places, we’ll be getting ready to lose the main moisture / precipitation, so this is going to significantly limit how much snow can fall. The vast majority of the WHW forecast area is going to see insignificant flakes with little accumulation limited to colder surfaces, while once you get to hills over the interior you can see up to around 1 inch on mainly unpaved surfaces, with a maximum potential of 2 or 3 inches possible in central MA and southwestern NH. A more significant snowfall will take place west of the WHW area, from the Berkshires into the mountains of northern New England from this one – which will be good news for ski areas. Once that low has accelerated through the Gulf of Maine and into the Maritime Provinces of Canada tonight and Sunday we will experience the feel of mid winter with cold air and gusty wind, offset a little bit on Sunday by the higher March sun angle. And don’t forget to give up your hour of sleep tonight by turning clocks that don’t auto-set forward one hour (officially 2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT) Sunday morning as we switch from standard to daylight saving time. Behind the weekend fun, we ease things up as the jet stream becomes more zonal (west to east) early next week with cold air locked in Canada and milder Pacific air overtaking much of the US. For us this means milder weather with mostly fair conditions Monday through Wednesday, except for the chance of a passing rain shower sometime Tuesday as a disturbance passing to the north pushes a frontal boundary across the area.
TODAY: Overcast. Rain showers and areas of fog during the morning. Steadier rain for a while midday into afternoon, briefly to sleet in some aras before turning to snow and snow showers from west to east with accumulation 1 inch or less by evening, except 1-3 inches possible in southwestern NH to central MA. Highs 38-45 except 45-52 coast early morning, falling gradually from west to east during the day so all areas are in the 30-37 range by late. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming N-NW increasing to 10-20 MPH late.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers evening. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.
SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill below 10 in the morning.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 51-58 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
Zonal flow pattern continues for the balance of next week with a lack of temperature extremes. We’ll have to watch for low pressure to the south and a disturbance to the north to start the period and may end up between them with fair weather, but a couple of disturbances can still pass by during the course of this time with some minor precipitation events. No major storms foreseen, even though it’s too early to determine much in the way of detail. The vernal equinox – the astronomical beginning of spring – occurs at 11:33 a.m. on Sunday March 20.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
Despite what looks to be a continued fairly low amplitude zonal flow pattern overall, we will see some battling of early spring warmth to our south and lingering cold of winter to our north, leaving us vulnerable to temperature changes and a couple bouts of unsettled weather heading into late March.