DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A strong cold front moved through from west to east overnight, putting a quick end to our brief warm treat. The cloudiness also blocked a fair amount of the lunar eclipse that was ongoing, but the clearing line did move in quickly enough from the west, combined with the moon lowering in the western sky, to allow many areas from the I-95 belt westward to view the last hour or so of the event (myself included here in Woburn). The moon in my area and others as well was then re-obscured by advancing stratocumulus clouds, which mark the arrival of colder air. We’ll see these clouds mixing with the sun today and later a few of them may grow enough to produce a brief shower of rain, graupel, or snow, with no impact from them where they occur. After high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s yesterday, today will be a “back-to-reality” day with high temperatures from the middle 40s to around 50 this morning before they hold steady or fall during the afternoon along with a gusty breeze. High pressure will move right over the region tonight into Saturday with winds dropping off. After a cold night and early morning, it recovers back to the 40s Saturday, which by then will feel nice because of the lack of wind. A warm front approaching on Sunday will bring more cloudiness to the region, but the day will be rain-free. We get into the warm sector for a while into Monday, but that will be a wet day as a cold front approaches from the west, parented by low pressure passing north of the region. Once the front goes by, it gets far enough offshore for drying out here, but low pressure will form on the front east of New England then get captured by upper level low pressure and do a loop to our northeast (Canadian Maritimes back to northern Maine) Tuesday. This will enhance a chilly wind here, and perhaps a few rain and/or snow showers may wheel southwestward back into our region, but not looking at any significantly stormy weather here.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing rain/graupel/snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling slowly through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving late evening or overnight. Lows 39-46. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers. Highs 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 40-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Low pressure offshore and high pressure approaching from the west means a breezy and cold start to November 24, but the day before Thanksgiving is expected to be dry with wind settling down during the day and good conditions for travel both local and into and out of the region. High pressure will bring fair and slightly milder weather for Thanksgiving Day (Nov 25). A weakening frontal boundary brings the risk of a rain shower later next Friday (Nov 26) and right now the weekend of November 27-28 looks generally dry and seasonably chilly.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Watching the chance for a precipitation event in the November 29-30 window of time followed by drier weather the first few days of December, based on current anticipated timing of weather systems many days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – November 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Many times this autumn, the “pick of the week” has been Thursday (coincidence), and this week is no exception if you like warm conditions. Yes, it’s mid November, and we’ve felt the chill of the season recently, but today will be a big exception. A warm front moved through the region last night and after low temperatures in the 40s during the evening, it warmed into the 50s overnight, along with the dew points as you probably noticed by the “wet ground but it didn’t rain” look early this morning. Those dew points will be left behind in the 50s today but the temperature will continue its climb on a freshening southwesterly breeze ahead of an approaching cold front, and it will be a battle between warm advection and length of daylight to determine who makes it to 70 today. At least 60s for all though! I’ve seen commentary out on social media about how “crazy” this is for November. Not really. Although a day in the 60s to 70 is not overly common for November, we usually get at least one instance of it every year, and sometimes more. It just tends to be very fleeting at this time of year in most cases (last year being an exception when we had an extended stretch of November warmth). Well, this one won’t be hanging around. The aforementioned cold front will be charging across the region from west to east tonight, with a band of rain showers. Some of the shorter range guidance has depicted strips of snowfall on the back side of the rain area as the temperature plummets directly behind the sharp front, and to some degree (no pun intended), this is likely a true representation, but even though the flakes may fly in portions of central MA and southwestern NH, they won’t last and they won’t stick, because the ground will simply be too warm. For most of us, the rain will come to an end, and the temperature will drop fast as the wind shifts. Of interest to sky watchers is the timing of the clearing, which should take place very quickly behind the precipitation. There is a partial lunar eclipse (not far from total) that starts in the 2 a.m. hour and lasts into the 5 a.m. hour, and hopefully we will get enough clearing in the WHW forecast area to see the last part of this event. After a slight recovery in temperature first thing in the morning, we won’t see them go up any further, but down gradually from there, and Friday will be one of those days that features a gusty wind and passing clouds, a few of which may release a brief rain or snow shower, though most of these will stack in the mountains to our west and north. Friday night, as high pressure from Canada moves closer via the Great Lakes, the wind will drop off and the temperature will follow suit, under a clear sky. Most areas will find themselves in the 20s by dawn Saturday. But Saturday will be a very nice day with lots of sunshine and light wind so the cold of the morning and the recovery to the 40s won’t be too tough to take if you are outside. Plymouth Massachusetts has its annual Thanksgiving parade that day, which the weather will be great for! As we get to the back half of the weekend, it’s time for more changes. A warm front approaches on Sunday with more cloudiness but a rain-free day. Low pressure will pass northwest and north of our region Monday, dragging a cold front and a ribbon of rainfall through our area, though it will be fairly mild for a good parts of the day as the frontal boundary will still be west of us until sometime Monday evening.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind SW 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east evening, ending west to east overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing rain and/or snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling slowly through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving late evening or overnight. Lows 39-46. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers. Highs 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Still working on the details of what happens once the frontal boundary clears the coast. A low pressure area likely does form on it to our east Tuesday and do a loop to our east through early Wednesday, far enough away to not bring stormy weather but close enough so that some showers of rain/mix/snow may occur during this time frame, along with windy and colder weather. A more tranquil period of weather later Wednesday (Nov 24) through Thanksgiving Day (Nov 25) as a small area of high pressure moves in. We will watch for a weak system coming through from the west with a minor precipitation later Nov 26 or Nov 27.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

The pattern does look a little more active in this time frame with a couple rain and/or snow threats from a more active Pacific jet stream resulting in near to slightly above normal precipitation and temperature for the period overall.

C-19 Chat Post – November 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

West-to-east zonal flow will dominate our weather for the next several days. This will bring some quick changes to our region as nothing lingers for long. High pressure sitting over us early this morning has allowed a decent early morning of radiational cooling with many areas having fallen to the 20s. Coastal and urban temperatures are a little less cold, partly due to some lingering nighttime cloud cover and a little more wind in those locations. We’ll have a decent day today, but you’ll notice more clouds arriving as the day goes on, this in response to a warm front moving into and across the area. This front will not produce any precipitation for our area, however. We’ll be in the “warm sector” behind that front and ahead of an approaching cold front tonight and Thursday, with Thursday’s high temperatures soaring by November standards well into the 60s for most of the region – and not out of the question that a couple locations achieve a 70. The records for the date are above that and will remain as they are. Enjoy the warmth because it will not be hanging around. A strong cold front will move across the region Thursday night and early Friday, accompanied by a band of rain showers. As its parent low moves across southeastern Canada and strengthens, and high pressure moves into the Great Lakes from central Canada, we’ll find ourselves in a blustery, colder northwesterly air flow on Friday with temperatures having fallen to the 40s just behind the front, then pretty much sitting there during the day (may reach the lower 50s some areas). High pressure will move closer and winds will start to drop off gradually Friday night and then this high will move over the region giving us a very nice but chilly day Saturday. But as noted above, nothing will be hanging around, and the high will move offshore Sunday and an approaching warm front will bring more cloudiness to the region.

TODAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Mostly clear with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind increasing to SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east evening, ending west to east overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloudy mix. Chance of a passing rain and/or snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling slowly through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Thanksgiving Week, a big travel, shopping, and gathering time for many. Perhaps no other week during the year faces such weather focus. What’s going to happen here? My thoughts have not really changed on this. The warm front that I spoke of above (for Sunday) will have passed by and we’ll find ourselves with a mild and wet Monday ahead of a cold front which will bring rain showers. As this front passes through we’ll likely see low pressure form on it in response to a vigorous upper level disturbanace. Model guidance has been all over the place with details on timing/movement of this feature with a wide variety of computer-predicted outcomes. No surprise there. My (and other forecaster’s) aim is to try to sort through it all and come up with the most likely scenario for our forecast. My having gone through that process yet again leads me to believe we’ll get colder air in fairly quickly behind that cold front but after the main precipitation is to our east. The low’s development will be rather rapid and it will likely intensify and do at least a partial and maybe complete cyclonic loop east and north of our region. The weather that results here would be unsettled, but not overly stormy in terms of heavy precipitation. It would be a blustery set up with rain and snow showers that could occur in the Tuesday to early Wednesday time frame. I still expect the system to have completed its tantrum and pulled off to the east enough so that we have calmer weather later Wednesday and for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. A weak low pressure system may approach and move into the region by Friday (Nov 26) with a minor precipitation threat (favoring rain over snow but either possible). I’ll continue to fine-tune this forecast as we go.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The pattern does look a little more active in this time frame with a couple rain and/or snow threats from a more active Pacific jet stream. Similar to yesterday, a summary of the period would be precipitation near to above normal, but I’m not as sold on the colder side of the pattern right now so near to slightly above normal for overall temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – November 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Our overall weather pattern will feature a west to east flow the next 5 days. But the fairly zonal pattern does not mean we’ll be without weather changes. No systems hang around long, so there are plenty of changes to be had. We start with a bright but blustery and chilly day today as a fresh westerly breeze blows between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure approaching from the Great Lakes. The wind will drop off as the high pressure center moves over our area tonight, but this will set up a fairly cold night due to radiational cooling, a process in which a clear sky and light wind allows temperatures to fall rapidly. This could be the night that Logan Airport reaches or drops below 32 for the first time. This can be made more difficult if the breeze stays too strong for too long, or a component of the wind blows over some of the water that around the airport before reaching the temperature sensor. So it’s not abnormal to have pretty much every area having dropped to at least several degrees lower than what the airport reading will be. This is yet another example of why Boston’s reported official temperature from the airport is not always representative of the rest of the city and its immediate surroundings. Anyway, 32 or not at Logan, a chilly night is ahead followed by a decent rebound Wednesday after the cold start. We will not see the day stay as bright Wednesday as it will be today though, because an approaching warm front will help to generate a fair amount of high and some mid level clouds. Precipitation is not going to occur in our region with this warm frontal passage, however, with any of that staying to our north in northern New England and southern Canada, closer to the warm front’s parent low. What will happen is a spike of unseasonably warm weather for Thursday ahead of the low’s approaching cold front. It appears that we’ll get through the daylight hours with a fair amount of sun before clouds eventually increase, but not before temperatures soar to the 60s throughout the region. The cold front will march through the region from west to east Thursday night and early Friday with a fairly solid band of rain showers accompanying it. Current indications are that the precipitation along the front will exit before nearly enough cold air arrives to end it as a mix or snow anywhere in our region. But the daytime hours of Friday will see the temperature turn out about 20 degrees colder than Thursday was, as any attempted diurnal warming is thwarted by strong cold air advection behind the cold front. This will come along with a fair amount of wind too. Cold air aloft will also help trigger some clouds which may produce a rain or snow shower in a few locations, though that will be a minor threat with no real impact of any kind. High pressure moves in with fair weather Saturday, starting cold but feeling nicer than Friday as while we’ll be cool during the day, it will be with much less wind.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind W 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east evening, ending west to east overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloudy mix. Chance of a passing rain and/or snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

This period, from the end of the coming weekend (November 21) to Thanksgiving Day (November 25) is a busy period of time for errands and travel both locally as well as into and out of the region, so it’s always heavily dependent on weather, and we will have a storm threat in here. The transition begins Sunday (Nov 21) as we have a warm front cross the region with some cloudiness but only a minor threat of any light rainfall occurring. The parent low of this front, like its predecessor, is expected to move from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada, and a trailing cold front arrives Monday with a band of rain showers along it. What we will be seeing is at upper levels a trough of low pressure will become more amplified in the eastern US so that a new low pressure area develops along that frontal boundary. Right now, it looks like this will take place late Monday into Tuesday (Nov 22-23) but with us on the milder side of the low, with a rain and wind event for the WHW forecast area to start out, and then once the frontal boundary is pulled offshore we see stronger cold advection along with wind, but with the main precipitation gone, leaving us with rain and snow showers – exact timing and details on these 2 days TBD. Enough overall west to east flow in the atmosphere should help to push this system away from the region with more tranquil weather returning for the middle of next week Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, but we’re looking pretty far ahead here so there can always be some adjustment needed to that part of the outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Earliest indications for the final days of November are for a bit more of an active pattern with a couple of rain and even potential snow threats materializing. Don’t panic in thinking we suddenly go into full fledged winter mode here. We won’t be quite there yet, but it’s also not impossible that some of us may need to reach for our shovels for the first time. If I had to summarize the last 5 days of November in terms of precipitation, near to above normal, and temperature, near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – November 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Our reputation as a place the weather changes a lot will be supported by this week’s pattern. A recently-formed wave of low pressure offshore is moving away after bringing some overnight rainfall, and the original disturbance that kicked off this low still has to come through here later so we’ll have the early return to sun followed by more clouds, and maybe a shower, but in general it will be a mostly dry and cool day today. Tuesday’s weather will be dry but chilly between low pressure departing to the east and high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure area will drift off to the southeast rather quickly and a warm front will pass through the region without much fanfare, just some clouds, during Wednesday. This will set up a short-lived by noticeable burst of unseasonably mild weather for Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will bring clouds in later Thursday and a band of rainfall through the region at night. This may end as a mix especially over interior higher elevations around dawn on Friday as it turns colder, and then the remainder of Friday will be a breezy and chilly day with a cloud/sun mix and maybe an additional rain shower or even higher elevation rain/snow shower as a disturbance crosses the region as colder air continues to flow in behind the now-offshore front.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible this afternoon, may be mixed with graupel or wet snowflakes. Highs 43-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving evening, may end as a rain/snow mix interior higher elevations before dawn. Lows 35-42. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A possible rain shower, maybe mixed with snow interior higher elevations. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings fair, cool weather November 20. Low pressure passes north of the region November 21 with a warm front moving through and producing some clouds but most precipitation may stay to our north. A cold front should move through November 22 with some rain shower activity. Will have to watch for an additional low pressure wave on that front to prolong clouds and possibly rainfall, but the overall trend should be for dry and chilly weather by November 23 and slight moderation by November 24 as a west-to-east flow remains dominant. No big issues expected for pre-holiday travel at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Despite some model flip-flopping again, staying with the idea of a continued dominant west-to-east flow pattern. One or two passing systems would bring our precipitation threats with temperature fluctuations and overall temperatures averaging near to slightly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – November 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

We’re not done with that low pressure circulation yet. Its initial arrival, coming after the third longest dry stretch of the year, has put us into a stretch of unsettled weather which started with a wet and windy Friday, featured a vigorous disturbance with more wind, thunderstorms, and even snowflakes in some areas on the back side of it on Saturday evening, and while much of today will be fairly nice, though breezy and cool, we will see clouds moving in later in advance of the next disturbance being influenced by the original low. This will be one moving east northeastward toward New England from the Ohio Valley and will spawn a weak secondary low. This will pass just southeast of our region tonight and early Monday, bringing a minor precipitation event, mainly rain, though a few snowflakes may mix in over interior higher elevations mainly pre-dawn of Monday. After this exits, we will dry out for the remainder of Monday right into the middle of the coming week. A period of breezy and chilly weather can be expected from Monday through Tuesday as low pressure moves away to the east and high pressure approaches from the west, along with near to below normal temperatures. As high pressure moves over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, we set up what may be the coldest morning of the season so far on Wednesday, when Boston’s Logan Airport may go below freezing for the first time, or at least get to the freezing point, while areas away from the city are all generally in the 20s. This day also has the potential to have a “big diurnal”, or a large spread between morning lows and afternoon highs when we start to see milder air arrive with a quiet warm front passage as high pressure starts to move off to the east. This will lead to a warmer than normal and breezy day for Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front, which at this point looks like it will be slow enough to allow dry weather for Thursday’s daylight before bringing nighttime rain showers.

TODAY: Sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Overnight periods of rain that may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with early morning rain/drizzle possible in eastern coastal areas, then partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers at night. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A cold front moves through and offshore in the early hours of November 19 with a rain shower threat, and may have to watch for a rain/snow mix briefly interior higher elevations if the moisture hangs around after the front’s passage. Remainder of November 19 to feature dry, breezy, chilly weather. November 20 should feature fair but cool weather with high pressure moving in. Next low pressure system is expected to track north of New England later November 21 through November 22. This track would bring a warm front through the region November 21 with some clouds and milder air arriving, then a cold front through on November 22 with a rain shower threat and a shift back to cooler but dry weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Staying with the idea of a less threatening pattern in terms of storminess. We’ll deal with one or two northern stream systems in a fairly fast flow with a lot of up and down in the temperature department, but overall, the weather for travel and other holiday activity for Thanksgiving (November 25 and the days around it is not looking all that bad. Timing and details will be brought into focus as we get closer to these days…

C-19 Chat Post – November 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

After a wet and wild Friday, we have a break in the action for a good number of today’s hours – basically the short daylight hours. With lingering low level moisture after yesterday’s rain, mild air, and humid conditions, this morning while dawning with a clear sky above has seen some fog patches in lower elevations. Any of these will burn off quickly as the sun climbs toward its low-angle peak in the mid November sky, but despite the low sun angle and short daylight, it will be a fairly nice day, temperature-wise, and with a relatively light wind. But things will start to change quickly as we head toward sunset. Clouds will advance from the west quickly ahead of a potent disturbance. This disturbance, as mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, is rotating around a large low pressure circulation in eastern Canada, and will dive through the Great Lakes early today before rounding the base of the circulation and heading east and northeast into our region, passing through in very quick fashion between about sunset and 8 p.m. An area of surface low pressure will be forming right as this crosses our area. What we can expect from it is 1 or 2 broken to solid lines of rain showers that may contain downpours, small hail, gusty winds, and possible lightning and thunder. As these move through, the worst of the weather will last literally a few to several minutes in any one location. Other locations may not see all that much if the line(s) contain(s) broken rather than solid convection. As the low center takes shape quickly, a lobe of wrap-around moisture on its back side may produce showers of rain and higher elevation snow from central and northern Worcester County into southwestern NH, which then would move eastward across the rest of southern NH and possibly northeastern MA as rain showers just before the system departs. With low pressure forming on the region, as you’d imagine, the wind direction will depend on where the low center is relative to any given location at a given time, but wind gusts of above 30 MPH are quite possible in the initial lines of convection, those likely being southerly to westerly winds, and briefly as the system departs, those likely being northwesterly winds. Later this evening and overnight we’ll see quieter weather, dry and chilly with a modest breeze. Expect a dry day on Sunday but with a cool and gusty westerly breeze as we feel the last of eastern Canadian low pressure. One more disturbance being pulled in this circulation will have a bit more independence as it approaches New England, spawning a new surface low near the northern Mid Atlantic Coast, which will then move northeastward, passing just southeast of New England by early Monday. This system will bring a period of rain late Sunday night and early Monday, and this may fall as a mix of rain/snow over interior higher elevations, although no snow accumulation is expected. The rest of Monday will be drier, but breezy and cool as clouds break behind the departing low pressure system. When we get to Tuesday, except a dry but breezy and chilly mid November day between low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure in the Great Lakes. While the center of this high likely passes south of our area Wednesday, it will extend far enough north to provide us with a tranquil day that starts rather cold followed by a nice temperature recovery.

TODAY: Lower elevation fog areas dissipating by mid morning, otherwise mostly sunny this morning and increasing clouds west to east after noon. Highs 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early-mid evening with rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving southwest to northeast across the region, some potentially producing small hail and strong wind gusts, and an additional area of rain showers and higher elevation snow showers possible from central MA to southwestern NH just behind the initial activity exiting as rain showers through southeastern NH and northeastern MA mid evening. Becoming partly cloudy late evening and mostly clear overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but short-lived stronger winds with gusts above 30 MPH mid to late evening, becoming NW then W 5-15 MPH late evening and overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Possible rain late evening and overnight which may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind variable becoming N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A chance of rain and drizzle favoring eastern areas early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Current expectations are for a breezy and milder November 18 ahead of a cold front from low pressure that will pass north of the region, dragging that front through here by early Friday with only a minor rain shower threat followed by cooler weather and a gusty breeze. Fair weather is expected for the November 20-21 weekend with a chilly start and milder finish. Watching for unsettled weather as low pressure arrives from the southwest at the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Some medium range guidance has recently presented a “scary” look to this period, which includes Thanksgiving on November 25, and while I feel we will have to watch for impact from one or two low pressure areas, I’m not seeing quite as stormy a pattern as some computer guidance “sees”. With colder air nearby and a general eastern US low pressure trough though, we will have to keep a close eye on it and work on the details going forward.

C-19 Chat Post – November 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Many weather changes will be taking place during this 5-day period, which is not atypical at all for this part of the country at this time of the year. Specifically, we will be starting with a windy, warmer, and somewhat wild Friday, eventually wet for all areas. This is a system we have been eyeing and talking about for several days now and it is going to be behave pretty much as advertised. This is a good example of how when we first see a potential system many days in advance, we have to talk about it in very general terms. You may recall seeing on this blog back when November 12 was still about a week away the talk of having to watch for potential unsettled weather in the November 12-14 window of time. As we got closer and closer to these days we (meteorologists) were able to keep track of trends on our most reliable guidance, weed out guidance we thought might not be quite leading us in the right direction, watch trends in current weather across the hemisphere, and with those and other elements of our scientific method gradually start to bring this forecast into more focus. Well, finally we arrive at November 12, and definitely with an imminent weather event. Is this going to come close to matching the powerful storm of just over 2 weeks ago? Certainly not. But this system will be significant enough on its own as it will produce decent wind and some heavy rainfall as well. The event is the result of a frontal boundary that is pushing well ahead of its parent low, a low that is moving into the Great Lakes as a mature system (no longer strengthening). However the pressure gradient between it and offshore high pressure, and the frontal boundary which is channelling a good amount of moisture northward, are enough to create this event for us. Some areas started the day with a briefly colorful sunrise as sunlight made it through breaks in the clouds to the east and onto the bases of the advancing clouds from this system. That will make the “red sky in morning…” saying come true this time. The clouds are thickening up and we’ll see our first rain showers coming through the region this morning, mainly in scattered form, though any of them can be briefly heavy. As we reach midday and afternoon, a much more solid band of rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms will cross the region from west to east, while the individual showers within it move more from south to north. Winds at the surface will already be moderate with stronger gusts, but just above us they will be blowing even stronger, and in this set-up you can have some of those winds be pulled down to ground level by heavier convective showers. So areas that see those carry the potential for damaging wind gusts above the sustained and more frequent gusts levels. As is often the case, the strongest winds will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations. There is also the remote potential in this set-up of a briefly rotating convective shower, whether it produces thunder or not, and sometimes those can result in short-lived, small tornadoes. It’s highly unlikely that any specific location will see one of these, but the risk being there, even if minimal, should be noted. With still many leaves on the trees that will be coming down in the rain and wind, we also need to watch for slippery roads from leaf coverage as well as flooding from blocked storm drains in roads and some parking lots. With the short daylight and early sunset, visibility of such hazards becomes rather difficult and will be this way through the afternoon / evening commute today, so use extra caution if you have to travel. Once we get to this evening, the band of widespread showers will be moving away to the east, lastly from Cape Cod, and we will end up with a better late evening and overnight as winds settle and it starts to dry out. But as we get to the weekend and even early next week we will not be completely done with this low pressure system. Its broad circulation will be moving across eastern Canada, along with its associated upper level low. A low pressure disturbance rotating around this larger system will approach us on Saturday, and while we get through most of the daylight hours rain-free, a short-lived by potent episode of rain and even possible thunder will cross the region from southwest to northeast later in the day through early evening. This may be accompanied by gusty winds too, and will make conditions seem like the ones we will see later today, but for a much shorter period of time. By later evening, it’s gone, and we’re turning drier and cooler. This sets up a dry, breezy, and seasonably chilly Sunday, but when we get to Sunday night and Monday, yet again another disturbance will be racing around the larger low pressure circulation and heading for our area. This one will spawn a surface low offshore which will pass southeast of New England on Monday, but close enough to turn our wind northeast and bring some precipitation to us Sunday night and part of Monday. It will be cold enough so that there may be some wet snow mixing in with any rain that falls mainly over interior higher elevation locations. This will not be an accumulating snow event, but a reminder of what season we are heading toward. When we get to Tuesday, we’ll be in a drier but chilly northwesterly air flow between departing low pressure to the east and high pressure approaching from the west.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers and embedded downpours this morning. Widespread rain showers, embedded downpours and possible thunder this afternoon. Humid. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH and isolated to scattered gusts above 40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Rain showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning / least sun afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable then SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers and a possible thunderstorm early evening from west to east. Breaking clouds late evening, clearing overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH becoming W with higher gusts overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Possible rain late evening and overnight which may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind variable becoming N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and drizzle favoring eastern areas morning and midday. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The overall larger scale pattern is expected to feature west-to-east flow. For this region expect dry weather with a temperature moderation November 17-18, a frontal system coming through around November 19 with briefly unsettled weather then a return to dry but cooler weather after that for the November 20-21 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

This is Thanksgiving week (Thanksgiving being November 25). The overall idea continues to be for a generally west-to-east flow pattern. An unsettled weather system would likely be passing through early in the week, followed by fair briefly colder weather, then some moderation, but possibly another likely minor system by the end of the period, which is low confidence as it becomes nearly impossible to time weather systems this far in advance. The overall take-away is that it doesn’t look all that stormy for this important travel / holiday period at this time.