C-19 Chat Post – November 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

As we honor those who have served and continue to serve our country on this Veterans Day, the weather will cooperate nicely for parades and ceremonies as high pressure dominates with dry weather and seasonably cool air but with light wind. Things change in a hurry though after this. Clouds roll in tonight ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, occluding off as its mature parent low moves into the Great Lakes. This will result in a breezy, mild, humid Friday with widespread showers moving in from west to east and lasting up to several hours before moving out during the evening. The frontal boundary does have enough push to continue eastward offshore by early Saturday, and the large low pressure circulation it came from is expected to drift eastward across eastern Canada through the weekend into Monday lifting gradually to the northeast with time. Another disturbance rotating around it will pass through our region Saturday evening. After much of the day is dry, another period of rainfall lis likely in the evening. This will move out quickly, leaving us with a dry but breezy and cool day on Sunday. While the main influence of the old low pressure area’s circulation will have lifted far enough north so we don’t feel its wind anymore by Monday, an upper low associated with it will still have enough influence on the weather so that the next disturbance heading for NY and the St. Lawrence Valley will spawn a new low pressure area offshore Monday, and we can expected a cloudier and chilly day with the threat of some rainfall, although much of that may stay offshore. By Monday evening, enough cold air will be around so that if there are any lingering showers, they can be in the form of rain or snow – something to watch as the potential first flakes of the season for parts of the WHW area.

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Sun and high clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 41-48 evening, then slowly rising temperature overnight. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Increasing showers from scattered to widespread west to east during the morning continuing afternoon. Slight chance of thunder. Humid. Highs 57-64. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Rain showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning / least sun afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable then SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a period of rain evening. Breaking clouds but patchy fog overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH becoming W.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, may end as rain/mix/snow showers evening. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

A west-to-east flow pattern will dominate the weather with a tendency for the mean trough position to be in eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast. Current timing of surface features suggest dry/cool weather November 16-17, dry but milder weather November 18, a frontal system bringing a rain shower risk November 19, then windy/colder end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

As we head toward Thanksgiving (November 25) the idea right now is for a fast-flowing pattern, west to northwest flow, limited precipitation chances and temperatures near to below normal. Will bring this important travel / holiday period into more focus as we get closer to it.

C-19 Chat Post – November 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

A cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast this morning with lots of clouds and a few rain showers (mostly to the north). Improving weather but with a cooling trend this afternoon and tonight sets up a fair but seasonably cool Veterans Day Thursday governed by high pressure. This high quickly moves offshore though as a broad area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes Friday, sending its occluding frontal system eastward into our region with mild, humid air and wet weather arriving during the day. The main band of shower activity, which may include embedded thunderstorms, will likely move off to the east by evening with a lesser chance of shower activity after that, and then drier air will arrive to make at least the first half of and possibly most of Saturday dry, but cooler. But the broad low pressure circulation will take its time moving across eastern Canada and a couple more disturbances will rotate around it and across the region during the course of the weekend. Right now, neither of these look to be significant precipitation producers, and it looks like they time out to mainly affect us during Saturday evening and Sunday night. Regardless of sensible weather, it will be cooler this weekend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers possible mainly north of I-90. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50 evening, then rising into the 50s overnight. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly late morning on. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Rain showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A disturbance moving through may spawn an offshore storm producing a northeasterly air flow with clouds, chilly air, and some wet weather November 15. Dry, chilly November 16. A moderating trend follows and the next system threatens with unsettled weather by later November 18 or November 19 depending on timing.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Another system threatens with unsettled weather probably mid period, but the overall trend will be for mostly dry but cooler to colder weather.

C-19 Chat Post – November 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Today will be the pick of the week, although yesterday wasn’t too shabby. Today’s combination sunshine, light wind, and being the mildest day of the week makes it the winner as high pressure sits over the region. The WHW forecast area has yet to see any widespread measurable rainfall this month. Boston had a trace on one day, and a string of zeroes otherwise. That will change not long from now, but not just yet. We do have a cold front that will be crossing the region Wednesday morning with a few scattered rain showers, but these will probably produce trace amounts of rainfall where they occur, and it will also be a mild day as it will take until evening for the cooler air to really show up. High pressure will bring fair but seasonably cool weather Thursday, Veterans Day, with favorable conditions for any outdoor parades / ceremonies. Clouds will be moving in as the day goes on though, and this portends a very different look to our weather by the end of the week. A large low pressure area will lift into the Great Lakes, a maturing cyclone that won’t be moving all that quickly but will send its occluding frontal system eastward into our region, bringing mild and more humid weather Friday with a pretty solid band of showers and even embedded thunder potential, with timing looking like most of the rain will fall during the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it does look like this system will be moving quickly enough to the east so that it will make it offshore by Saturday morning, with Saturday being a dry, cooler day.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Rain showers possible before dawn. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy morning with rain showers possible mainly north of I-90. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 43-50 evening, then rising into the 50s overnight. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly midday and afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Dry but breezy and cooler weather expected during the day on November 14 as we’ll be on the south side of a broad low pressure circulation moving into southeastern Canada. A disturbance moving across the Northeast Sunday night into Monday will bring the chance of rain showers except some mix/snow showers possible in interior higher elevations as it trends colder. Fair, dry, but chilly weather is expected November 16-17 and by the end of the period we should be watching for another low pressure area approaching from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The timing of systems will be hard to pin down but expecting two disturbances to pass through with precipitation chances in a pattern of up and down temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – November 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

High pressure provides continued fair weather with a warming trend through Tuesday. Low pressure sails eastward across eastern Canada Tuesday night and early Wednesday, dragging a frontal system through here with clouds and a rain shower threat mostly in southern NH and northern MA during Wednesday morning. This front will introduce a slight cool-down for the middle of the week, including Veterans Day (Thursday), but high pressure moving in on that day will bring dry weather, favorable for any outdoor observances / parades. Friday, high pressure heads offshore and a broad area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, but this will be a mature system and its frontal system will be pushing eastward more quickly than the parent low, so expect unsettled weather to quickly arrive with lots of clouds and rain showers as well.

TODAY: Limited sun Cape Cod & Islands into mid morning, otherwise sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy morning with rain showers possible mainly north of I-90. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

The question to answer for the November 13-14 weekend is whether or not there will be any additional rainfall. Right now it looks like the frontal system that approaches on Friday will have moved offshore by early Saturday but should be close enough that if a wave of low pressure moves up along it, and it probably will, that some additional rain showers may occur especially early in the day and favoring eastern areas. Will watch and fine tune this as we go through the next few days. Right now Sunday (Nov 14) looks breezy, chilly, and dry. A disturbance may bring rain showers for November 15 and this should be followed by drier weather but a shot of colder air later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Some temperature moderation is expected at least for the early part of this period and then we will have to watch for a disturbance / storm system to move through at some point which may be followed by another shot of early-season cold. There are uncertainties on the evolution of the pattern as we head through mid month so additional evaluation will be needed.

C-19 Chat Post – November 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Welcome back to Standard Time! If you haven’t changed your clocks that don’t automatically change, it’s time to do so! We have another nice day in store today, in fact we have a stretch of nice days that pretty much go right through this 5-day period through the middle of the coming week. As we anticipated, a storm stays far offshore today / early Monday as we are protected by high pressure, which extends its coverage through Tuesday. There will be a contrast in temperatures when you compare the cold morning lows occurring as I write this update (20s in many areas, 30s in urban centers and higher elevations), to the 60s many places will see by Tuesday afternoon. When we get to Wednesday, I’m still expecting a low pressure area to whistle by to our north, dragging a barely noticeable warm front / cold front combo across the region, made known only by some clouds and shifting and increased breezes. A bubble of high pressure will move in for a slightly cooler but dry Veterans Day on Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered in some areas by high clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy RI and southeastern MA, mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Unsettled weather is likely for the early through mid portion of this period, with the impact likely coming from two systems. We start out with a southwesterly air flow aloft and a system moving in from the west, with rain or rain showers likely at some point November 12 and based on current timing again sometime November 14 to early November 15. We start to get into colder air toward the end of the period which brings up the question of whether or not we end up with some mix/frozen precipitation before the end of the unsettled stretch – and we have lots of time to analyze the possibilities and answer the question before the event takes place. Colder air should be here by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Fair, cooler or colder weather to start and based on the overall expectations of pattern evolution we should moderate but have some unsettled weather before the end of the period. Far too future for any real details of course.

C-19 Chat Post – November 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

High pressure dominates our weather today. An ocean storm passes southeast of New England Sunday through early Monday as high pressure maintains its hold here and continues to do so through Tuesday as well. Low pressure passes north of the region Wednesday with a rain-free warm front / cold front combo going through the region. The coolest air of these 5 days will be around this weekend, followed by a temperature moderation.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

A more changeable and active pattern sets in during this period. Veterans Day November 11 is expected to see fair weather with high pressure in control. After this we enter a southwesterly air flow and more active disturbance pattern with milder but more unsettled weather expected. Details to be focused on as we get a little closer…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Some up and down temperatures with a more westerly flow. At least one disturbance should bring a chance of some unsettled weather but the overall pattern will be dry for this period.

C-19 Chat Post – November 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

A batch of low level moisture on the northern periphery of a low pressure circulation well offshore may bring a couple rain showers to the South Shore and Cape Cod / Islands regions of Massachusetts this morning, otherwise it’s dry times for the next 5 days as the first offshore storm moves away, a second and larger-sized but further offshore storm misses us by quite a distance later in the weekend, and high pressure dominates our weather. The coldest part of this period will be this morning and the two weekend mornings. Otherwise this forecast features the cooler days early in the period and then a moderating trend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds southeastern MA with a possible rain shower this morning, then increasing sun there. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Low pressure passes north of the area on November 10 with a warm front / cold front combo bringing some clouds but probably little or no rainfall. High pressure builds in with fair weather for Veterans Day November 11. Expected milder but unsettled weather as we get into a southwesterly air flow and the storm track in the November 12-14 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Some up and down temperatures with a more westerly flow. At least one disturbance should bring a chance of some unsettled weather but the overall pattern will be dry for this period.

C-19 Chat Post – November 5 2021