C-19 Chat Post – November 5 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Discussion…

A warm front is passing by now, and this opens the door for days of mild to warm & dry November weather as high pressure dominates. The remains of a trough coming through the region will probably bring us some cloudiness for the first part of Friday, but after the early clouds in eastern areas with the warm front today, and that minor interruption, we’ll be seeing lots of sunshine during the shortening daylights. Most of the time we’ll be in a fair warm west to southwest air flow, but a bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada should be strong enough to weaken the wind field as there is a boundary between it and high pressure to the south, and this should open the door for a slightly cooler sea breeze to develop Sunday. A sea breeze is less common in autumn than spring, but if we get warm enough land at this time of year we will get one to develop under these conditions. So that will basically be the most exciting weather to track over the next 5 days.

Details…

TODAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sunshine. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

The mild/tranquil pattern continues November 9-10 as high pressure rules. Finally a front from the west brings the chance of rain showers November 11 and may settle just south of the region with additional low pressure bringing unsettled weather for the remainder of this forecast period along with somewhat cooler air. Only low to moderate confidence for this scenario.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

This 5-day period may feature a couple bouts of unsettled weather as we’re in a southwesterly air flow and near the boundary of very mild air near the East Coast and colder air pushing into the Midwest. Much fine-tuning needed.

C-19 Chat Post – November 4 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Discussion…

A few rain and snow showers start the day in southeastern sections (further south than I expected originally) but these will not cause any significant travel issues and will be gone in short order, leaving the region with a breezy, but bright Election Day. If you are in-person voting, dress for the chill because you’ll feel it. But this is the end of the colder weather for quite some time as we are flipping the weather pattern and will see the cold air make a return to the western US while here in the eastern US we warm up. This will be due to a fairly stable pattern of large scale low pressure in the West and a large ridge of high pressure dominating the East.

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds and passing rain/snow showers southeastern MA and RI early, then mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouding up overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

High pressure will be dominant with dry weather through November 10. Temperatures may cool very slightly November 8 before warming again, but will average above to much above normal. A cold front will be due about November 11 (Veterans Day) with some rain showers and an end to the warm spell, and low pressure may come along as this front sits just south of the region with at least cloudiness and possibly some precipitation at the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Unsettled weather potential early in the period as a frontal boundary pushes back to the north then low pressure drags another front through from the west to bring a surge of cooler/drier weather mid period before a late-period warm-up.

C-19 Chat Post – November 3 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

Discussion…

This week starts off with a shot of modified arctic air. You’ll feel it today, especially with winds from the northwest that will gust in the 35-45 MPH range, making temperatures around 40 feel more like they are near 32. The gusty wind is also likely to take down some weakened tree limbs and maybe even a few older whole trees, resulting in isolated to scattered power outages. Please use caution if walking and/or driving especially near trees. Tonight, a disturbance crosses the region with a few snow showers, except rain or snow showers southeastern MA and RI, and even a heavier snow squall may occur, especially north of Boston. This will usher one more surge of wind and cold into the region for Election Day Tuesday. If you are heading out to the polls, be ready for some additional wind and quite chilly air, although the wind will not be as strong as it will be today, and it will also turn out sunnier than today will be. And then things change when we get to midweek. A warm front will scoot through the region with little fanfare except for some cloudiness early Wednesday, and as high pressure takes up residence south of New England we’ll find ourselves in a mild pattern for the remainder of the week. The remains of a disturbance may bring a few more cloudiness to the region early Friday.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and clouds. A passing shower of rain, sleet, and snow possible. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing snow showers, except rain/mix/snow showers southeastern MA / RI. A brief heavier snow squall possible mainly northern MA and southern NH with a small accumulation possible. Lows 27-33. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds and a possible snow shower, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

High pressure will continue its dominance, with above normal temperatures. November 8-9 may end up slightly cooler than the other days due to a wind shift from a high pressure area to the north not well-forecast by guidance at this time. Previous thinking was that a cold front may arrive November 10 with a rain shower risk, but that currently looks more like the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Watch for a period of unsettled weather around November 12-13 as a front may settle just south of the region with a wave of 2 of low pressure on it. Generally fair weather and possibly another push of cold air follows this.

C-19 Chat Post – November 2 2020

COMMENTARY

Once up a blue moon, we have a white Halloween. Well… Now that Halloween and the month of October have come and gone, it’s onto November, the penultimate month of 2020, and despite the oddities and trials the year has given us, there is still weather every day, still people that need to travel, so it’s time to look ahead at the first half of this month, starting with the first 5 days in this section, as well as a quick teaser that I have a “Retrovember” treat for the blog starting as soon as I finish the update, i.e., a switch back to the original format of the blog that was used from its birth to earlier this year. WHW turns 10 years old at the end of the year, so I thought it would be fun to do something like that.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Discussion…

A warmer southerly air flow is now in place across the region. But as of 8:00 a.m. there’s quite a temperature contrast across the region, ranging from near freezing in some interior sections of MA and southern NH to the middle 50s on Cape Cod. Temperatures will become more uniform as the day goes on and the southerly wind exerts its influence on those colder areas. A weak disturbance will bring some rain showers to Cape Cod and a few others may pop up over southeastern MA this morning. An approaching cold front will interact with the moisture ahead of it and produce a widespread area of rain showers which will move in from southwest to northeast toward day’s end. With sunset now just after 4:30 p.m., we will get through most of our short daylight rain-free, but it becomes quite wet this evening as these showers move through, with enough instability that even a rumble of thunder may occur in some areas. The cold front pushes through overnight and offshore by Monday morning, and Monday will be a “cold-advection” day in which the temperature really doesn’t go anywhere after its initial fall behind the cold front, as the sun (mixed with clouds) tries to warm the air, cold air will be coming in. But what you will really notice Monday is the wind. Low pressure moving away will become quite strong while a significant high pressure area moves into the Great Lakes region and the pressure difference between these will be rather significant, creating a northwest air flow that will produce wind gusts in excess of 40 MPH. This will likely result in some tree damage and isolated to scattered power outages. The wind will continue into Monday night as a disturbance moves through, and this may produce some snow showers and even a snow squall in a few locations, into the first few hours of Tuesday before it departs, and we end up with a dry, breezy, but cold Election Day. High pressure moves overhead Tuesday night for a clear, calm, but cold night, and then the high slides offshore Wednesday and we see a significant temperature recovery, which will continue into Thursday as well when many areas reach or exceed 60!

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy this morning with a passing shower Cape Cod and possible shower remainder of southeastern MA. Mostly cloudy this afternoon with numerous rain showers arriving from southwest to northeast late-day. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THIS EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT): Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Temperatures falling to near 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain or snow showers. Temperatures steady around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing snow showers. Slight chance of a snow squall. Minor snow accumulation possible. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 except 25-32 immediate coast and urban areas. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Dry weather will be dominant through November 9 at least, starting out with above normal temperatures November 6-7 as high pressure to the south is dominant, then a frontal boundary sneaks through and high pressure to the north dominates with cooler weather November 7-8. Uncertainty for the end of the period but current indications are for a warm-up but also the potential for some wet weather arriving November 10 ahead of a cold front from the west. At day 10 though, low confidence on this.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Cooler / colder air may move back in and we’ll have to watch moisture to the south during the middle of this period for potential impact here.

C-19 Chat Post – November 1 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Discussion…

A rare sight greeted early risers today in a good portion of the WHW forecast area: snow covered landscape, much of it still foliated. We’re used to seeing this with some of the late foliage like oaks, or evergreen type trees, but it’s rare to see that much snow on trees with colorful leaves that haven’t dropped them yet, and that’s exactly what we had. I was fortunate enough to take a walk at a local pond this morning to witness some of this close-up, and photograph some of it (although poor planning meant that I not only ran out of storage space, but battery too, before the end of my walk – oops, about as good as my forecast was for yesterday’s storm, but that’s life!) … Now, as the sun warms the landscape enough today to rid the trees of the snow, and more leaves come down with that, we will only recover to the 40s as a chilly high pressure area moves overhead, but this is good news for any cities and towns holding trick or treating this evening, as winds will be light despite the chill. Last year, if you recall, it was very mild, but also quite windy, and showery in some locations. Tonight will have 2 distinctive parts to it. This evening, we’ll see quick radiational cooling especially where snow remains on the ground under a mostly clear sky with just some high clouds streaming in above, decorative for the rising full Halloween moon, a blue moon (the second full moon of the month, not actually blue), also known as the full Hunter’s moon. Our low temperatures will be reached before midnight. During the overnight hours, a southerly air flow will strengthen and we’ll not only have increasing high & mid level clouds with the a warm front coming toward the region but we’ll have lower clouds coming up via the waters just south of New England, and the temperature will rise gradually. Also, don’t forget, tonight is the night we turn the clocks back, ending Daylight Savings Time and going back to Standard Time, technically occurring at 2 a.m. Sunday morning. So remember to change any clocks that do not automatically adjust! You get the extra hour of sleep if you want it, but our sunset will also occur before 5 p.m. after today onward into early 2021. Back to the weather… A disturbance moving north northeastward may bring a few rain showers to southeastern MA around dawn to about mid morning on Sunday, but the majority of Sunday morning and the first half of the afternoon will just feature a lot of clouds but not really any rainfall. Later in the day though, as a strong cold front approaches from the west, there should be a decent swath of showers, and even the risk of some embedded thunder, moving in from the west, that will cross the region during the evening before pushing offshore overnight. This will introduce a much colder air mass on Monday, of arctic origin although somewhat modified. Nevertheless, Monday is going to be a windy and cold day with some sun but also a fair amount of passing clouds, and some of these clouds may produce a rain or snow shower. Later Monday night into the early hours of Tuesday (to around dawn), another disturbance will move through the area from northwest to southeast, producing a few snow showers, and maybe even a brief snow squall. This will reinforce our cold air for Election Day Tuesday. If you have doing in-person voting, expect a breezy, bright, but chilly day with temperatures in the 30s much of the time (peaking in the lower 40s for some areas). There will, even be some wind chill making it feel colder. Tuesday night will be a cold one with high pressure moving overhead, but Wednesday, after a cold start, we’ll see a nice temperature recovery as the high center shifts to the southeast and a west to southwest wind develops, bringing air from a milder source region into our area.

Details…

TODAY: 100% sunshine. Highs 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THIS EVENING (SUNSET TO ABOUT MIDNIGHT): Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (OVERNIGHT): Partly to mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the 30s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers southeastern MA and RI until about mid morning. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east by late in the day. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT): Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Temperatures falling to near 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain or snow showers. Temperatures steady around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing snow showers. Slight chance of a snow squall. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 except 25-32 immediate coast and urban areas. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

This period looks mainly dry, but temperatures are going to be dependent on wind direction and whether high pressure to the south of New England or in eastern Canada has a stronger influence. Currently I expect us to be influenced by high pressure to the south with above normal temperatures November 5-7, then high pressure from Canada with a cooler November 8-9.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Lower confidence in what happens during this period. Looks like a brief warm up, rain showers, then a chill-down through Veterans Day, a possible wave of low pressure with rain/mix/snow threat around November 12-13, then dry weather to end the period. A lot of uncertainty here so don’t put too much stock in this outlook right now.

C-19 Chat Post – October 31 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Discussion…

About 10 days ago I told a coworker many of us would see our first snowflakes before October was over. Well, many of you will indeed see that today. But this is not going to be a big snowstorm either. No repeat of 2011. And let’s get our priorities straight. People “freak out” (don’t know why) over relatively minor events these days, but for most of you, snow is not going to be the problem today. The greater danger comes tonight when temperatures fall into the 20s before the ground has a chance to dry off, even though the snow (and rain to the southeast) will have ended hours before. This is a recipe for black ice, and it would have been an issue even with out the snow. So don’t blame the snow for the ice that forms tonight. It’s time we got back to thinking about weather in a more practical sense. Getting lost in the drama of “flakes falling from the sky” prevents a lot of useful information from actually being heard. So be careful tonight if you go out. If you read this, and still do the icy slip n’ slide, don’t say you were not warned. So onto the rest of the weather. We have our little winter preview event as cold air meets departing low pressure today, then that cold air and black ice tonight. Thankfully as high pressure settles over the region on Saturday, despite a very cold start, the dry will “warm” back to the 40s with very dry air which will allow those icy patches to disappear. Saturday evening, for any outdoor Halloween activities, expect a sky that shows some high clouds arriving just in time to accent the rising full moon, the second one this month, the “blue moon” (not actually blue), or the Hunter’s moon. During the late night, expect more clouds and a temperature that may rise slightly as the wind begins to blow from the south. A warm front passes the region early Sunday and a cold front then approaches late in the day, but doesn’t pass through until Sunday night with its rain showers. Also, don’t forget that this is also the weekend we switch from Daylight Savings Time back to Standard Time as the clocks go back 1 hour at 2 a.m. Sunday. I’ve noticed a lot of folks lately having gotten into the habit of calling “Standard Time” by the name “Daylight Savings Time”. No. That’s what we are coming off of, and going BACK to Standard Time. Spread the word. Let’s call things what they are. And speaking of getting back to things, back to the weather I go, and back to the cold air we go on Monday and Tuesday with a nice delivery from the arctic via Canada. A few snow showers may accompany the incoming cold on Monday, but nothing series in the snow department. Tuesday, Election Day, looks dry, but there may be some areas that never get out of the 30s – so between today and that day, we’re going to see a couple of mighty chilly days for this time of year…

Details…

TODAY: Overcast. Snow or rain changing to snow, accumulating 1/2 to 2 inches, especially on grassy/leafy surfaces and other typically cold surfaces., while the South Coast / Cape Cod are mainly rain with a few flakes mixing in. Breaking clouds this afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NE shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28 except around 30 urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 31-38 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a passing snow shower possible. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind chill below 20 at times. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Dry weather dominates with a warm-up November 4-6, then cooling down again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Dry, chilly start then warming up again November 9-10. Strong cold front may bring rain showers and then another shot of cold by November 11. Watch for a wave of low pressure with possible unsettled weather late in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 30 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Discussion…

Today, you get spared a long discussion and instead just get this quick summary, because there is not really any change to my thoughts on this forecast. Low pressure passes south of the region tonight and Friday, starting as rain, which will be somewhat beneficial but not as much as some model forecasts have been – another few chips taken out of the drought. Colder air flips the rain to snow first in higher elevations north and west of Boston then eventually toward the city as the precipitation shield gets ready to depart during Friday. Minor snowfall accumulation on the order of a coating to 2 inches take place, greatest in higher elevations well north and west of Boston before things come to an end, and while most of any snow melts away later Friday, even with cold air moving in, some wet ground and puddles will remain and that sets up a good chance for ice patches Friday night as temperatures fall below freezing pretty much regionwide. No changes to the weekend with a chilly but tranquil Halloween, a full moon rising in the evening before clouds arrive, then a milder, breezy Sunday with a rain shower risk as a warm front passes and a cold front approaches. This cold front will bring a fresh shot of cold air by Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast. Highs 46-53. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix or turn to snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow likely especially northwest of I-95 with minor accumulation favoring higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH (coating to 2 inches maximum). Mostly cloudy afternoon with a passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NE shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28 except around 30 urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 28-35 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening becoming S up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Dry weather dominates but with up and down temperatures. Coldest November 3, mildest November 4 and 6 with cooler shots November 5 and 7, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Dry, chilly November 8, warming up November 9-10 then strong cold front follows with a cold shot by November 11. Watch for wave of low pressure with precipitation threat by the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 29 2020