DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Discussion…

The long stretch of November warmth comes to an end today. If you look outside from a window this morning under a cloudy November sky, it may conjure up the feeling of late autumn chill when combined with the trees that are now nearly bare, save for the dark golds & browns of oaks and other rustics that are reluctant to let go of their foliage as if begging for summer to come back and make them green again. Alas, when you step outside through your door, you’ll feel 60+ degree warmth, and even air that feels somewhat humid. A few raindrops may be falling where you are, but this is part of a signal that things are about to change. Wait until this afternoon to step outside, and you will have lost your opportunity to feel the 60s, as it will already have fallen into the 50s in most areas and be on its way down from there, into the 40s tonight, maybe even a few upper 30s in outlying colder locations, as Canadian air seeps into the region. Friday, reality sets in fully as the temperature recovery only feebly attempts 50, and falls shy in many areas. The clouds will continue to be dominant, and a wave of low pressure will produce a few periods of rain during the day. Friday night, dry but even cooler air moves in, and we see the sky clear out. This sets up a weekend that will showcase 2 different weather moods, from the cool gusty breezy and bright sun of Saturday ahead of high pressure, to a more tranquil, slightly milder, but less sunny Sunday as high pressure slips offshore, low pressure heads through the Great Lakes. At this time, it looks like the warm front from this system will pass by during the day Sunday, but with limited moisture to work with, so rain chances are minimal. Sunday night and very early Monday, its cold front will traverse the region from west to east, bringing a band of rain showers, but I have my doubts just how substantial these showers will be. Any brief warm-up we get on Sunday will be replaced by a new incoming cool air mass Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly this morning and favoring areas south of I-90, especially the South Coast. Temperatures 60-67 through mid morning, falling into the 50s midday and afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH through mid morning, becoming NW 5-15 MPH during the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mainly late morning on. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59, probably occurring morning-midday, before falling. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Upper level low pressure moves through the region November 17 and 18 with lots of clouds and a risk of rain showers November 17 then more of a sun/cloud mix with a few rain and/or snow showers November 18 as temperatures fall to slightly below normal. High pressure moves south of the region with fair weather and milder air November 19-20, but a cold front around the end of the period brings a few rain showers and a transition back to cooler again.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Heading toward Thanksgiving (November 26) the trend is to see the region in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation, neither of which can be pinpointed in any detail this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – November 12 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Discussion…

Taking a moment to recognize and thank all Veterans for their dedication, service, and bravery. Understanding that most cities and towns continue with restrictions for activities, but if there are any small Veterans Day ceremonies outside this morning and midday there will not be any weather issues as we continue the summerlike pattern we’ve been in for several days. Today is Boston’s day to break a record high temperature as the morning sunshine and southerly wind should help temperatures take off quickly and make it to 70, besting the record of 69. This has been my expectation for several days for Boston in this stretch, and now it’s time to see if it plays out. Other locations have set some record highs in the days before this. What has been far more impressive than the magnitude of the warm spell, which hasn’t been exceedingly warm since we were not shattering records everywhere every day, was the longevity, being one of the longer stretches, and in some locations the longest, we have seen. Regardless, it’s about to end, and will do so as a cold front ambles its way eastward into and across the region tonight and early Thursday. However, it appears that the rain shower activity with this front will be somewhat limited, with the only shot of “beneficial” rainfall across the South Coast, while other areas get less significant activity. An initial moisture feed from Tropical Storm Eta heads south of the region. As the cold front settles just to the south of the region, one wave of low pressure will keep cloudiness in the region for a good portion of Thursday. A little influx of drier air will try to clear the region out at night but another disturbance coming along on Friday will thicken the clouds up again and deliver a shot of some rainfall. This will be a fairly-quick moving system and be on its way out quickly, opening the door for a chilly high pressure system to move in via the Great Lakes Saturday, a day that will be breezy and seasonably cool for us here. This high quickly moves offshore by Sunday and a warm front approaching will bring an increase in cloudiness, but right now it does not look as wet as it did previously – in fact, we may escape the entire day without any rain. This will be something to watch as we get closer to the weekend.

Details…

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. More humid. Highs 66-73. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers arriving, most numerous South Coast. Humid. Lows 53-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers around, mainly morning. Highs 60-67 morning, falling to the 50s afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Becoming cloudy. Periods of rain especially from late morning on. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing with areas of ground fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Cold front moves through early November 16 with a rain shower risk followed by breezy and cool but dry weather. Disturbance may bring additional cloudiness and a rain shower risk November 17 before high pressure builds in and then south of the region with fair weather the middle of next week. Next disturbance may bring clouds and a risk of light rainfall by the end of the period but this is very low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Still very low confidence out this far. May see another surge of mild weather, not as significant as the one we just had, with mainly dry weather. Alot of re-evaluation is needed to fine-tune the weather forecast for later this month.

C-19 Chat Post – November 11 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Discussion…

Our charmed weather life has but hours left before a shift toward reality. But even when that happens were going to reap some benefit from a couple rain chances to further chip away at the drought. Apologies for the late update, but now that things are up and running, just a quick summary, or reiteration, of the weather players the next 5 days… Today it’s high pressure surface and aloft, helping you recall the summer days of weeks ago, with the exception of the 4:30 p.m. sunset (heehee). Wednesday we get an approaching cold front, ahead of which we’ll see an increase in clouds, humidity, and eventually rain chances. This is also the day I think Boston breaks its record high temperature which stands at 69. Today’s 78 is out of reach. Once the front gets right into the area and slowly passes through, a wave of low pressure will pass by on it and bring most of its rainfall to the area Wednesday night and early Thursday. After that, high pressure from Canada pushes in Friday and Saturday with dry and more seasonably cool air, though watch for one final wave of low pressure that may bring some rain toward the South Coast on Friday.

Details…

TODAY: Early patchy fog & low clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 70-77 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of fog & low clouds forming. Lows 50-57. Wind SW under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a chance of rain South Coast. Breaking clouds & increasing sun afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A wave of low pressure will bring cloudiness and wet weather November 15. Upper level low pressure may keep it on the unsettled side at times early next week with a few rain showers at times before a turn to dry and seasonable weather

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

The large scale pattern trend is for zonal (west to east) flow, ridge southeastern US but occasional troughs trying to push in from Canada. General pattern here is on the dry side with variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – November 10 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Discussion…

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to provide us with fair and warm November weather for a couple more days. With longer night time hours now, there is a lengthy period of radiational cooling allowing for larger temperature diurnals (difference between high temps and low temps at one location) and in areas where the temperature meets the dew point, we’ve seen some fog and low clouds form as well. That will be the case again tonight and probably Tuesday night as well before more substantial cloudiness moves in and more wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will bring a change in our weather, first int he form of a band of rain showers later Wednesday into Thursday, and a shift to cooler air later this week. Once again a look at Boston’s record high temps show that today’s (74) has a slight chance of being equalled but I don’t think surpassed, Tuesday’s (78) is out of reach, and Wednesday’s (69) has a shot at being broken. Some of the moisture associated with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico may be involved with the cold front as it comes by late Wednesday into Thursday, but the bulk of that moisture will pass south of the region. One additional wave of low pressure on the front to the south of the region may hold cloudiness and possibly some South Coast wet weather in for a portion of Friday, but when we get to the end of the week, a push of high pressure from eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will bring drier weather back in.

Details…

TODAY: Patchy fog & low clouds early, then sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except patchy low clouds & for forming overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early patchy fog & low clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Areas of fog & low clouds forming. Lows 50-57. Wind SW under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a chance of rain South Coast. Breaking clouds & increasing sun afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

High pressure centered northwest of the region will bring dry and seasonably cool weather for November 14 before moving off to the east quickly and allowing a wave of low pressure to bring cloudiness and wet weather November 15. Upper level low pressure may keep it on the unsettled side at times early next week with a few rain showers at times.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The large scale pattern trend is for zonal (west to east) flow, ridge southeastern US but occasional troughs trying to push in from Canada. General pattern here is on the dry side with variable temperatures, but timing of shots of cool air and mildest days is not really possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – November 9 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Discussion…

A quick update today so you can get out and enjoy the great November weather! High pressure continues its dominance for a few more days with a warm & dry pattern, although today’s temperatures will be down a little bit over yesterday’s especially near the coast, due to a developing sea breeze. True sea breezes are more common in spring than autumn, but they will occur in autumn when the land is sufficiently heated and the water temperature is cool in comparison – exactly what we will see today. We’re still looking at a cold front to move into and through the region Wednesday with rain showers arriving, then the front will settle just to the south Thursday holding clouds in after wet weather departs and it turns cooler. As a reminder, Boston’s record high temps for the next 4 days, starting today, are 74, 74, 78, and 69. Monday’s and Wednesday’s will be challenged.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain early. Temperatures steady 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

High pressure is expected to push far enough south to bring fair but seasonably cool weather back for November 13 into November 14 before a wave of low pressure brings a chance of wet weather for November 15. Confidence drops off very quickly later in this forecast period as guidance is very divergent and inconsistent. Right now thinking dry/breezy/cool November 16, warming up with rain showers November 17, but this may change.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Confidence is far too low for a day-to-day outlook but overall pattern looks dry and seasonable to slightly milder than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – November 8 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Discussion…

The contrast from one week ago to now is a great example of the variability of weather we can see – from cleaning up from a 3 to 6 inch snowfall and barely getting above 40 last Saturday for Halloween to many areas heading for 70 or higher under full (though short-lived) November sunshine today. Over the last several days the weather pattern has made a significant shift from that trough of low pressure bringing the winter preview to the East to a ridge of high pressure pushing the jet stream well into Canada and bringing some weather that reminds you a little of those late summer days. The warmer than average and dry weather will continue for several more days as the ridge holds in place, and then we will see a change take place at the middle of next week as we have a cold front move in from the west while a plume of moisture from the tropics starts to stream northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico (where Tropical Storm Eta will be located). It remains to be seen how much of that tropical moisture gets involved with the cold front moving into the area, but it should be enough to bring at least a solid episode of rain shower activity. Boston’s record high temperatures for the next 5 days (November 7-11) are 77, 74, 74, 78, and 69. At this point, I think the most vulnerable record is the one for November 11, but I could not 100% rule out one or more of the others being challenged, especially today’s and Monday’s.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog forming over lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

The cold front that comes through at midweek will be hanging just south of the region with additional waves of low pressure bringing at least lots of cloudiness and the opportunity for some rainfall later next week at times, but with drier interludes as well including into the start of the following week. Temperatures average somewhat above normal but not as warm as the current stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Add struggling guidance to the normally lower confidence of a medium range forecast, a little A.M.E. technique, and my current call for this period is for one more surge of mild air and some wet weather to start out, then a trend to more seasonable chill and drier weather.

C-19 Chat Post – November 7 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Discussion…

While I don’t want to sound too repetitive, people like to hear about good weather, especially in what is statistically the cloudiest month of the year and typically much cooler than we’ll see over this 5-day period. As high pressure continues to dominate, we’ll have plenty of fair and mild to warm weather. I still feel Sunday will be the coolest day overall as we open the door for an ocean breeze. Despite this very mild spell, however, not many record temperatures are threatened, as many of those are several degrees higher than the potential high temperatures we will be seeing. Nevertheless, a great stretch of November weather – enjoy if you can!

Details…

TODAY: Clouds dominant this morning, sunshine taking over for afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

The long stretch of dry/mild weather comes to an end for this period with the passage of a cold front on Veterans Day November 11, bringing cloudiness and a chance of rain showers. That day itself will still be quite mild and may be the only day that Boston has a shot at setting a record high (which stand at 69). That front settles just to the south of the region and areas of low pressure may be close enough to bring some additional episodes of unsettled weather during the remainder of the period with temperatures close to seasonable levels for this time of year.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

This is a lower-than-average confidence period for forecasting with questionable model performance, and a few unknowns regarding tropical moisture connections, but for now the thought progress is a transition to a more zonal pattern starting with a brief cool down, then a quick warm-up, some rain showers but no big storm, then a cooler/drier finish to the period. There will be a lot of fine-tuning in forecasts beyond a few days in advance. So always remember to take more extended outlooks just as a guide to what may take place, knowing there can be significant changes (hopefully not daily!).

C-19 Chat Post – November 6 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Discussion…

High pressure will be in control of the weather for many days to come. A weak plume of tropical moisture will bring some lower clouds at times to the South Coast region today through early Friday, and mid and high level cloudiness from a weakening trough will pass by tonight and early Friday. Other than a generally warm west to southwest air flow many of these days, we’ll have a lighter pressure gradient between 2 high pressure areas Sunday which will allow for a cooler ocean breeze to develop especially in eastern areas, making that a cooler day.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny except partly sunny near the South Coast. Highs 59-66. Wind SW up to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sunshine. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

The November warm spell continues into Veterans Day (November 11) with dry weather the day before and a chance of rain showers on the holiday as a cold front moves through the region. This will put an end to the unseasonable warmth and bring temperatures back toward seasonable levels for the balance of the period. We will have to watch for low pressure south of the region around November 12-14 with an unsettled weather threat.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

This 5-day period may feature a couple bouts of unsettled weather as we’re in a southwesterly air flow and near the boundary of very mild air near the East Coast and colder air pushing into the Midwest. Much fine-tuning needed. Higher wet weather threats focused around November 15 & 17.