3:34PM

THROUGH EVENING: Cloudy with showers likely. Pockets of heavier rain and a possible thunderstorm are most likely before 5:00PM. Temperatures holding in the upper 60s. Light wind.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a chance of a few thunderstorms. Low 60 to 65. Wind SE to E 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain in the morning. Isolated showers during the afternoon. High 65 to 70. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers. Low 60 to 65. Wind light E.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and isolated showers in the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 68 to 73. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. High 79.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 82.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 83.

10:58PM

Don’t let the headline scare you. We are not heading into a long-lasting period of crappy weather, just heading into a few days of unsettled weather and below normal temperatures. I already see a nice stretch of weather following this. And the coming weekend will not be a total loss, in fact, it may end up quite nice overall.

High pressure is hanging on, battling with approaching low pressure from the west. A warm front will position itself just south of New England later Wednesday, Thursday, into Friday.  Warm and muggy air south of this front will be riding up and over relatively cooler, drier air we have had in place over us, and this will lead to mostly cloudy, showery conditions from later Wednesday night, off and on through Friday. A cold front will try to sweep it all out of here late Friday, but it will take until a second front passes on Saturday to really get things moving.

Details forecast for the Boston area…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 60 to 65 except some upper 50s inland rural areas. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Wind light SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain, mainly after 10PM, heaviest after midnight. Low 60 to 65. Wind SE to E 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain in the morning. Isolated showers during the afternoon. High 65 to 70. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers. Low 60 to 65. Wind light E.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and isolated showers in the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 68 to 73. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. High 79.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 82.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 83.

11:37PM

There are no changes to the thinking on the discussion from yesterday, so here is just an updated forecast for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from near 50 inland rural areas to near 60 coastal and urban areas. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 60 to 65 Wind S up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: AM rain / PM showers. Low 61. High 73.

FRIDAY: Showers & thunderstorms. Low 67. High 74.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 63. High 78.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

7:03PM

High pressure will remain over New England for the next couple days then slowly push offshore by midweek, allowing low pressure to approach slowly from the west. This setup gives fair weather through Wednesday, then unsettled weather Thursday and Friday. As we get to next weekend, the question to be answered is how fast will the low pressure area move out? So far, I’m somewhat optimistic, but with many days to go, I’ll look at it daily and fine-tune the forecast as needed.

The details for the Boston area for the next 7 days for now go this way…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low ranging from the upper 40s over inland valleys to near 60 in Boston, 50s most locations. Wind NW under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny. High 78 to 83. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind S up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 60 to 65 Wind S up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: AM rain / PM clouds & sun. Low 63. High 83.

FRIDAY: Showers & thunderstorms. Low 67. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 63. High 78.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

High pressure will build right over New England today with fantastic, warm, dry weather for Father’s Day! This nice weather will last into the beginning of the new week as well, possibly into midweek, as high pressure is slow to move away. A disturbance will have to be watched on Tuesday as it may send a batch of clouds and potential showers down over the region from the northwest.

A low pressure area is expected to bring some unsettled weather later in the week, and current indications are that this is most likely to occur during the Thursday-Friday period. Hopefully this will clear out of here in time for next weekend to be nicer once again.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

TODAY: Sunshine may be filtered at times by a few high clouds. High 80 to 85. Wind N 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 54 to 59 except 60 to 65 coastal and urban areas. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny. High 77 to 82. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 77.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 84.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain. Low 62. High 73.

FRIDAY:  Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 76.

6:45PM

(This is an update of the previous post. A full new blog update will appear Saturday morning.)

A weak front will hang around into Saturday, providing focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from time to time. High pressure will build over New England Sunday (Father’s Day)  and Monday with fair weather dominating.

Conditions should be mostly favorable on Saturday for the Boston Bruins victory parade, with only a slight risk of a pop up shower occurring along the parade route. Congratulations Boston Bruins, 2011 Stanley Cup Champions!

Boston area forecast details…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 60 to 65. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph, higher gusts at times.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High 74 to 79. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind NW up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

THURSDAY: Chance of thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

10:43PM

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few showers and patchy drizzle. Low 48 to 53. Wind N up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing. High 69 to 74. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 44 to 49 inland valleys, 50 to 55 most other areas. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 78 to 83. Wind S 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Low 59. High 74.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Low 55. High 77.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 81.

4:35PM

Here is an update on the forecast for the Boston area, reflecting no major changes in thinking through Thursday, despite some forecasts of clearing on Wednesday. Not buying that yet. I am, however, slightly more encouraged by what I see regarding the end of the week. I’ll slide toward a more optimistic solution for this update but confidence is still on the low side.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and a few periods of rain, with the greatest chance for periods of rain coming from later Tuesday to midday Wednesday. Lows 51 to 56. Highs 56 to 61. Wind NE to N 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Clearing. Low 54. High 77.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 75.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 77.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 81.

7:33PM

The heat will take a vacation this week as low pressure is the dominant force in New England’s weather. One low will sit and spin off the coast for the next 3 or 4 days (drifting away by Thursday), keeping the region unsettled and cool. Another low pressure area will set up shop south of New England at the end of the week, but it is unclear how close it will be and how much of an impact it will have. The forecast confidence drops off late in the week due to this uncertainty, so stay tuned for updates as we go through the week.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 50 to 55.  Wind N up to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Isolated showers. High 60 to 65. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Isolated showers. Low 52 to 57. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High 57 to 62. Wind NE to N 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 53. High 59.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 72.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 74.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 77.

9:00PM

The calendar may not say it, but if you have any memory of June/July 2009, you may think we are back there over the next few days.

I’ll save an in depth discussion for tomorrow’s week ahead outlook and only torture you with a Boston area forecast for now…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Low 55 to 60. Wind light E.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms returning from west to east during the early evening hours. High 60 to 65. Wind E-SE 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog and drizzle late. Otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 54 to 59. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph shifting to N.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High 60 to 65. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/drizzle. Low 51. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/drizzle. Low 52. High 59.

THURSDAY: Clearing. Low 55. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms. Low 59. High 77.

12:30PM

Well folks, I tried to be optimistic and that forecast just isn’t working out. Everything is displaced a little further south and I expected, so most of MA gets the rain that I expected to be further west and north, and now I have my doubts about really busting into the warm air on Sunday as well. Updating the forecast to reflect these changes…

THROUGH SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Temperature ranging from the upper 50s to the upper 60s, coolest along the coast. Wind E to SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 56. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 80.

3:33PM

My apologies for the late update. I know many of you have been looking forward to a weekend forecast update. I wrote one earlier that was lost 1 second before upload, so this is take 2!

Boston Area Discussion: The heat of yesterday is a memory. Winds have shifted to northeast during the day today, but lingering moisture and a disturbance passing by, along with the push of cooler air, have all combined to result in a lot of clouds popping up. Winds will continue onshore tonight into Saturday, with clouds dominant, and cooler temperatures. An approaching warm front will set off areas of rain, but these are expected to stay mainly west and north of Boston, possibly even outside the 128/495 belt for much of the day and evening Saturday. A finger of rain may extend down into Metro Boston for a brief time on Saturday, but most areas in the immediate Boston area and on south and east will remain dry during the day and evening hours. Later at night, a more concentrated area of showers and possible thunderstorms will cross much of the region, but this should be on the exit by mid morning Sunday. It is a close call, but right now I am going with the warm front pushing all the way through the Boston area during late Sunday morning. This would put an end to the shower activity and even allow some sun to develop. Temperatures would warm well into the 70s where there is enough sun, and even touch 80 in a few locations, in contrast to the 60s that we would hold onto if the front remained to the south and west and we stayed cloudy & showery. A cold front will come along from the west by Sunday evening, setting off another round of showers and thunderstorms. Check later updates for the timing on these as the event gets closer.

Boston Area Forecast through the weekend…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind E under 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon and evening mainly along and outside Route 495 and mostly north of the Mass Pike. Dry most locations. High 65 to 70 coast, 70 to 75 inland. Wind E to SE around 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain north and west of Boston early. Showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east later on, mostly after 11PM. Low 60 to 65. Wind SE around 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely until mid morning, ending west to east, then becoming partly sunny midday and afternoon. Heavier clouds may return from west to east by evening with a chance of another round of showers/thunderstorms. High 75 to 80, but cooler along most coastal areas. Wind variable around 10 mph early, becoming SW and increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

A Look At Next Week…

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 57. High 69.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 62. High 80.

3:20PM

With the morning storms well out of the way, some sunshine has heated things up, and made the atmosphere ripe for more storms as a cold front slices into our short-lived burst of heat. These storms have already formed during the past couple hours over NY State & VT, and a solid squall line (as of 3:15PM) runs from west central NH across southern VT and into NY, including the northwest corner of MA. This line is expected to march east southeast, crossing eastern MA between 5PM & 7PM, a bit later toward far southeastern MA including Cape Cod & the Islands. This line has the potential to produce strong winds with some straight-line wind damage and an isolated downburst. Torrential rain, some hail, and of course, dangerous lightning can be expected with this line.

From experience, this setup often results in the strongest part of the line running along and south of the Mass Pike, with areas to the north of the Pike and into southern NH seeing less widespread powerful storms. This may occur today, but regardless of where you are, do NOT let your guard down until the storms has passed by.

I will update again as needed with any changes, and a full Boston area forecast will be posted this evening. A quick look ahead suggests a mild, dry Friday, and a cool and unsettled weekend.

Be safe everybody!

9:15PM

A complex of thunderstorms from Upstate NY merged with cells over eastern NY in the last couple hours, to form a complex of storms moving rapidly east southeast across VT, western NH, western MA, and western CT. Some of these storms have been severe with damaging straight-line winds. Some have produced hail and heavy rain. Though most of the storms are showing a weakening trend, part of this complex may hold together as it moves east southeast into the Boston area in the next 2 hours. These storms are moving very rapidly, over 50 mph forward speed. A shower or thunderstorm may occur especially west and north of Boston. Some of you may see a period of gusty winds, even if you do not see any showers or storms. Later tonight, all will be quiet. See the previous post for the remainder of the forecast…

3:15PM

The heat is turning up today, inland anyway. Along the shore, a cooling sea breeze has taken over. As of 3:00PM, Boston’s Logan Airport is a comfortable 72 with a wind off the water, while inland, temperatures in the 80s to near 90 are common. The humidity is on the increase, but is not too high as of yet. That humidity will continue to increase tonight through most of the day tomorrow, and the heat will be on in all areas tomorrow due to a southwest wind. Some instability due to the boundary of the ocean breeze and the inland warmth, along with a minor disturbance, may set off a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this evening. An approaching cold front will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region Thursday afternoon and evening. At this time, I still do not see any widespread severe weather with this, but any storms that do form can still become strong to locally severe. The main threat appears to be torrential downpours which could cause localized flash flooding. However, most people will not see this tomorrow.

High pressure pushes in Friday with a change to cooler and drier weather. And this trend continues Saturday with still cooler air but dry weather. Low pressure will bring unsettled and continued cool conditions on Sunday. This cooler than normal air that establishes itself over the weekend is expected to continue early next week as well.

Details…

THROUGH 9:00PM… Mostly clear to partly cloudy and hazy. Slight risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms, though most locations will remain dry. Temperatures in the 70s along the shore may jump up to near 80 before sunset. Temperatures in the 80s inland. Wind variable up to 10 mph, with seabreezes near the coast until shortly before sunset.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear, hazy, warm, and humid. Low 65 to 70. Wind SW up to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Hazy sunshine, hot, and humid. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. High 92 to 97. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Clear late. Cooler and less humid. Low 60 to 65. Wind NW around 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High 76 to 81. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 73.

SUNDAY: Chance of light rain in the morning, showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Low 56. High 66.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 71.