10:36PM

Record high temperatures Sunday. More records may fall before the coming week is done.  A ridge of high pressure dominating the East Coast will promote mostly dry and warm weather for much of the coming week. But eastern New England will have a slight interruption today thanks to a back door cold front sliding across the region. This will introduce an onshore wind to many coastal areas which will keep temperatures down. Tuesday-Thursday, high pressure will build aloft and at the surface, and by Wednesday and Thursday temperatures more fitting of early summer will be with us. A frontal system should introduce slightly cooler air by Friday, and this step-down may continue over the weekend. It is too early to tell how chilly next weekend will get, or how substantial any unsettled weather will be, so regarding next weekend, my forecast will be general and of low confidence.

Important note: With the lack of precipitation, lots of sunshine, and lack of vegetation at this point, the fire danger will be quite high during the coming week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear but areas of ground fog. Low from the upper 30s inland valleys to near 50 at the coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. High from near 55 coast to near 65 inland but cooling back to the upper 40s coast and 50s inland by late afternoon. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Areas of fog. Low 40-45. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clearing. High 65-70 coast before dropping back in the afternoon, 70-75 inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 77.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 52. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 55.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

12:00PM

Hi all! No discussion here, just a fast forecast update to bring things up to date. You’ll notice a few minor changes from the previous, but nothing major.

Full discussion for the week ahead coming later today or early this evening!

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Sunny. High near 70 except cooler on portions of the irregular coast where wind passes over water first. Wind W up to 10 MPH, possibly 15 MPH coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog over valleys, swamps, and bogs. Low from the middle 30s in low lying areas away from the city and coast to the upper 40s in urban and coastal areas. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. High from near 55 coast to near 65 inland but cooling back to the upper 40s coast and 50s inland by late afternoon. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Areas of fog. Low 40-45. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clearing. High 65-70 coast before dropping back in the afternoon, 70-75 inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 77.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 52. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 71.

8:49PM

It looks like we do not have any more precipitation to talk about during the next several days (through the middle of next week anyway) as a large ridge of high pressure builds across the East Coast. Temperatures will warm a little bit for Saturday (50s most areas), but should be much warmer Sunday with a land breeze taking over most locations. Slightly cooler weather Monday will result from a weak back-door cold front, but this front will not be as interrupting as the recent bout, and by Tuesday into midweek most areas will be much warmer. We’ll still have to watch for a coastal sea breeze on Tuesday. If one day is going to be warm everywhere, even at the coast, it appears that Wednesday would be the day. By the end of next week, a trend toward unsettled weather may be the first signal of a new weather pattern. More on that in future blogs.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Low 36-41. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 53-58. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of fog mainly over inland valleys, swamps, and bogs. Low from near 32 inland valleys to the lower 40s along the coast. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 66-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 62.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 68 except cooler coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 76.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 53. High 72.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 55. high 63.

4:02PM

No, I wasn’t hiding from my bad forecast yesterday, though I felt like it. I fell victim to something I have before but on occasion have noticed. This time it escaped me. I did expect a back-door front to move in late yesterday, NOT in the wee hours of the morning. What accelerated this process? The answer lies in the thunderstorms that went through in the hours just before the marine air came plowing into eastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. As those thunderstorms moved offshore and weakened, they became ruled by downdrafts, or downward moving air. Once this air reaches the surface (land, ocean), it spreads out. There was a sufficient amount of this to basically create a new boundary of maritime air, which invaded in the pre-dawn hours. This resulted in my missing daytime temperatures by 15 to 20 degrees in some cases, and of course the sky in eastern areas was basically overcast all day, not the at least partly sunny that I had been expecting. Once again, owned by Mother Nature.

Onward…

The ocean is showing us how it can be in control even today as much of the region has been stuck in the cool maritime air with lots of clouds dominating.  This stays with us through tonight, and wet weather becomes involved as a disturbance from the west moves through the region in 2 parts tonight and on Friday. The first is pretty much in the area already, with some showers spreading across parts of north central and eastern MA as of 4PM, and these will be around through early evening possibly even mixed with a few pellets of sleet. More numerous showers will be around on Friday. All of this will be offshore by Saturday but just enough troughing overhead may result in some lingering clouds for at least part of the day. By Sunday, and much of next week, a high pressure ridge building over the Northeast will mean fair weather, and a warming trend. Temperatures of 70 or higher are possible in many areas by Tuesday through midweek, but the coastal areas will be a wildcard, as a relatively weak gradient may allow seabreezes to develop at least a couple of the days. Because of this, temperature forecasts for next week are not with high confidence.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH SUNSET: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possibly mixed with sleet crossing parts of eastern MA then diminishing. Temperature near 40. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle and a slight chance of rain showers. Low 33-38. Wind E up to 10 MPH diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY:  Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle early. Rain showers likely throughout the day. High 45-50. Wind calm then becoming S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas fog in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 39-44. Wind light variable becoming N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 51-56. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 61-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 67, probably cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 72, probably cooler coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 75, possibly cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 78, possibly cooler coast.

7:41AM

Clouds dominate through Friday, cool and raw especially near the coast today, showers Friday, improving this weekend, warm next week!

Full update this afternoon…

11:18PM

A cold front will cross southern New England overnight with scattered showers and thunderstorms as warm air in place begins to be pushed out of the way by cooler air advancing from the northwest. High pressure building north of the region later Wednesday through Thursday will eventually turn winds onshore and bring much cooler air into the region. This will continue into Friday, when another disturbance may bring some unsettled weather. The last of this disturbance will move offshore Saturday, and then we’ll enter a period of tranquil and warmer weather for the first few days of next week, as a large ridge of high pressure builds. We may be seeing some very warm air once again before too long, but the warmest of it may be delayed until the middle or end of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with storms most likely in areas along and north of the Mass Pike. Some storms will contain briefly gusty winds and very heavy rain. Low 45-50. Wind W under 10 MPH except briefly variable and gusty near storms.

WEDNESDAY: Sun & clouds mixed. Isolated rain showers possibly early morning and late afternoon. A bank of fog and area of low clouds may move into coastal areas before sunset. High 55-60 except lower 60s some inland areas before dropping through the 50s late day. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to NE late.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and rain showers. Low 38. High 43.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. Low 38. High 57.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 65.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 63.

7:57PM

It looks like our very warm pattern will have an interruption by way of the Atlantic Ocean for a few days from midweek into late week.

Hopefully most of you got to enjoy the beautiful 70-degree day (most areas) today! Sunshine faded late, but it was a splendid day, feeling more like May than mid March.

A disturbance and frontal system will cross New England from west to east on Tuesday, producing some morning rain showers, a break, and a few more at night in southern and eastern New England. Mild air will continue to dominate through the day. Cooler air will begin to move in at night and continue through Wednesday, as winds turn more north. A deepening trough offshore and high pressure building to the north by Thursday and Friday will likely result in a cloudier, cooler period of weather. We may break out of this somewhat on Saturday but more likely by Sunday as a ridge of high pressure tries to rebuild over and south of New England.

There are still indications of a very warm pattern for next week, but as always, we’ll have to keep an eye on the chilly ocean for its influence.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers after midnight. Low 43-48. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers ending from west to east in the morning then becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 64-69. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 45-50. Wind shifting to NW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers in the afternoon. High 53-58. Wind NW-N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 42. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 36. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny.  Low 39. High 63.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 72.

9:27PM

The question remains: Are we getting a reward for last winter, or are we setting ourselves up for payback sometime later? Either or neither, the overall weather pattern for southern New England will continue to be more like late Spring for the upcoming week, and probably beyond. The only real disturbance of any consequence will be passing through the region on Tuesday with some rain shower activity, otherwise mainly dry weather and above to much above normal temperatures will dominate. It even appears, based on reliable guidance, that a very warm and dry pattern will continue into the beginning of next week. We will likely see some 70 degree temperatures being reached either early in the week or toward next week in parts of the region. Will there be an 80 degree reading somewhere? I don’t see it for this week, and I normally do not talk about anything in detail beyond 7 days, but there are some signs that 80 could be approached or reached around March 21, which would make it feel like the first day of summer around the first full day of Spring. The Vernal Equinox occurs on Tuesday March 20 at 1:14AM. But it’s plain to see that the weather is not waiting until then.

A couple of negative aspects of the warm/dry pattern: Lowering water supply which can set up a summer drought if the dry pattern should continue, and of more immediate concern, drying of topsoil is accelerating as the sun angle increases. This increases the risk of brush fires, and some have already been occurring during this week. Look for the fire danger to remain high for at least a couple more weeks. The lack of leaves allows the sun to reach more of the ground, drying it out. This, along with fallen leaves from last season and broken branches and trees from recent storms (Irene, October snow, February 25 wind storm), allows fires to spread more easily. Use care if outside with anything that can ignite fires!

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to upper 30s coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. High 67-72, except cooler in coastal areas where wind passes over water first. Wind WSW around 10 MPH.

MONDAY  NIGHT: Clouding over from west to east. A few rain showers possible very late. Low 50-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers morning, ending west to east during midday then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny AM. Sun/cloud mix PM. Low 45. High 62.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 60 (except 50 coast).

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 67.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 71.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

REMINDER: Set clocks ahead 1 hour tonight (Daylight Savings Time begins at 2AM Sunday morning)!

6:22PM

At 5:45PM, the last sunset before 6PM occurred in Boston until October 16 2012. And tomorrow, of course, the sunset will be much later.

Tonight will be cold. Not excessively cold. Normal March kind of cold. But there is going to be very little normal about the temperature pattern coming up during the next 7 to 10 days, which may turn out to be one of the warmest stretches of March weather we have experienced. High pressure ridging will be in control, with only a couple weak disturbances passing by. Temperatures will be running above to much above normal starting Sunday through next week including into next weekend. Temperatures along the coast may be a little more tricky on a few of the days, depending on wind direction. If high pressure to our south is stronger than high pressure to our north, a more southwesterly wind will probably limit ocean winds and the coast will be warmer, of course with the exception of coastal areas that face south and southwest (South Coast, RI, Cape Cod). If high pressure to the north is stronger, we may see an onshore flow for a day or two, making east and north facing coastal areas much cooler. We will see how that plays out as the week goes on.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low from the lower 20s inland valleys to lower 30s coast. Wind SE-S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind S-SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 66-71. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 50-55. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 63-68. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 62.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 46. High 59.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 71.

11:40AM

With the coastal snow burst now just about a done deal, except for lingering snow over Cape Cod late Saturday morning, here is an updated eastern MA, RI, and southern NH forecast… But first a little about snow amounts. Clearly not an easy forecast to make, given the quick development, small size, and southward movement of a low pressure center just off the NH/MA coast during the early morning hours. When I saw the webcam at Hampton Beach NH at 4AM and saw heavy snow falling with what looked like at least 2 inches on the ground, I knew that somebody was going to be in a local jackpot area of significance. Stratham, NH, appears to be the winner, with 8.5 inches. But amounts of 4+ inches did take place in other locations, including parts of Cape Ann MA. Up to a few inches were reported on the South Shore, south of Boston, where I did not expected that much to fall. Here in Woburn, we had a brief coating on the unpaved surfaces, which is now long gone. Even areas that got significant snow will not hold onto it for much more than a day, as another March warm-up is on the way…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly to mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29 early then rising into the 30s. Wind variable shifting to SW around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds early, then mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 58.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

6:41PM

If you blink you may miss it, but winter weather is going to make a short visit tonight and early Saturday in the form of snow showers, with some accumulation in eastern MA and southern NH. Cold air, moving in during this evening, will stick around through early Sunday morning. The snow will be produced by the combination of a strong disturbance and a cold front passing through southern New England. The disturbance will ignite a low pressure area just offshore Saturday morning which may enhance snowfall in northeastern MA and southeastern NH, especially near the coast, where the most snowfall is expected. This will not be a major snowfall by any stretch, but up to a few inches may occur, and that will be enough to have to push off walks and driveways. Roads may see some slushy accumulation and may be briefly snowcovered and slick, but existing warm ground will not allow this to last very long.

By the time we get to Sunday and Monday, a new warm-up will be underway, and the mild pattern will last for much of next week, with temperatures closer to the coast being determined by the wind direction, as winds will be variable and at times off the ocean as we get to the middle of next week.

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clouds advance. Snow showers developing after 8PM from west to east, becoming more numerous at times. These may be mixed with rain at the start near the coast and south of Boston especially toward RI. Late night low 24-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts at times.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny through midday with snow showers, most numerous in northeastern MA and southeastern NH  including coastal areas to the immediate Boston area. Snow accumulation from brief slushy coatings around the MA/RI border and southeastern MA to 1/2 to 2 inches elsewhere except locally up to 3 inches  in parts of coastal northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 35-40. Wind shifting to NE 10-20 MPH in the morning then back to NW in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29 early then rising into the 30s. Wind variable shifting to SW around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds early, then mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 58.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

5:03PM

Though the roller-coaster temperature pattern will continue, the overall pattern is to be warmer than normal for some time. Only weak disturbances marking air mass changes will pass by from time to time.

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 40-45. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with stronger gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers from 10PM on. Low 22-27. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 53.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 60.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 62.

10:36PM

Many people will like what they experienced today better than they will like tomorrow, because of tomorrow’s wind. I’m having my doubts about Boston reaching 65 let alone challenging the record of 67. An airmass becoming more moist at lower levels, which is harder to warm, and an earlier increase of clouds, will probably put the brakes on a temperature rise during the early to mid afternoon.

A cold front will cross southern New England Thursday night with rain showers. This will introduce cooler and drier air for Friday, though a secondary front may produce a few rain and snow showers in isolated locations late Friday, and slightly colder air will follow this for Saturday, before a new warm-up gets underway on Sunday.

The next frontal system is due on Monday with a chance of rain showers at that time. I’m not sure of the timing of this front this far out, so temperature forecasts for Monday are with low confidence.

Eastern MA, RI, and southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 45-50. Wind SW around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. High 61-66. Wind SW 10-20 MPH increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-40 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers ending by midnight. Low 35-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated rain or snow shower possible late day. High 45-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 52.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 50.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 50.

3:56PM

The upswing is coming. High pressure sliding offshore will sent a southwest wind in during midweek with a significant warm-up. I do not think this will turn into record warmth at Boston. The record highs are 69 for Wednesday and 67 for Thursday and I believe Boston will fall well short on Wednesday (topping out in the 50s) and a few degrees shy on Thursday. Either way, it will be enjoyable March warmth other than a gusty wind to deal with at times. A cold front will move through Thursday night with rain showers, sending cooler air in for the end of the week. Temperatures rebound again by Sunday before the next front sends them back down a touch on Monday of next week. There are no major late-season winter storms in sight.

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Some clouds cross the sky from west to east but move out again around dawn. Low from the upper 10s valley areas to upper 20s coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 33-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 45-50. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 55.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 49.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 47.

8:32PM

Temperature swings continue to be the theme this week. No major changes from last night’s discussion,  other than a slightly faster timing on things later in the week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from near 10 inland valleys to the lower 20s along the coast. Wind N around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 20-25 inland valleys, 25-30 elsewhere. Wind diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 51-56. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.