C-19 Chat Post – June 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

A weakening cold front / trough will move through the region today. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be initiated by this system combined with humidity in place and daytime heating, with most likely a broken line of convective activity forming somewhere in southern NH and central MA early this afternoon then progressing southeastward with time. Before that, some shower activity is also possible again near the South Coast where there is also more low cloudiness and fog in place due to higher dew point air in that region. The rest of the region does get into higher humidity today as well as the trough / front moves through. The shower and potential thunderstorm activity that it generates will be non-severe, but a few of them can produce brief heavy downpours and short-lived bursts of gusty wind, so be on the look-out for that especially if traveling. Tonight, any remaining activity diminishes as it moves across the South Coast region, which may still be mired in some low clouds and fog, and with temperatures falling a bit to meet the still relatively high dew points this evening we may see areas of fog forming elsewhere in the region before finally some drier air arrives from the west toward morning to clear it all out. At most we may see some lingering cloudiness around early Saturday, otherwise the sun will take over as high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft, and this pattern strengthens during the weekend into early next week bringing much of the region its first heat wave of the season (heat wave being defined as 3 or more days with a high temperature of 90 or higher). There will be exceptions, most especially the South Coast, where a southwesterly component to the air flow is off the water and will keep it cooler there. There are a few land protrusions along the East Coast of MA that may also fail to reach 90 on one or more of these days for the same reason, but in general, the heat will be on for most during this time. There will be a frontal boundary not all that far to the north of the region at times, especially Sunday, and then after being pushed northward Monday it approaches again later Tuesday, but for now the expectation is this boundary will stay far enough north to have no impact on the weather here.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast. Chance of showers South Coast through midday. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms southern NH / central MA early afternoon through eastern MA / northeastern CT / RI later afternoon. Highs 73-80. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers South Coast region evening. Areas of fog, especially evening. Lows 58-65. Humid evening – dew point 60+, then drying overnight with dew point falling into 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early clouds especially southern and eastern areas then sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point under 60. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. A few fog patches inland lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Slightly more humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. More humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mostly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW to W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 9-13)

Upper level high pressure ridge axis shift westward enough to allow a cold front down from eastern Canada which may bring clouds and a shower at some point June 9 but mainly a cool-down back to the upper 70s and 80s. This boundary won’t be that far to the south and may allow some disturbances to ride along it producing at least some cloudiness at times and potential a few threats for shower activity in the region June 10-11 while we’re on its cooler side before it may lift back to the north and put us on the warmer / humid side with a shower or t-storm risk June 12-13. Don’t interpret this as a wet and cloudy pattern, just some activity to follow with the frontal system in the vicinity.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

Expecting a mostly zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats from passing disturbances, but dry weather most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – June 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 3-7)

A warm front approaches today with lots of clouds and some shower activity. The best support for most widespread rainfall is near the South Coast and especially Cape Cod through midday today. Any other area may see a few showers but expect activity elsewhere to be somewhat limited. The warm front crosses the region tonight with isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but again the highest coverage may be closer to the South Coast. We’ll be in the warm sector post warm front and pre cold front on Friday with a southwesterly air flow and higher humidity with lots of clouds and the chance of passing showers at any time, though again it looks like any one location will be rain-free most of the time. A weakening cold front will finally make it across the region Friday evening when one more shower or thunderstorm is possible from a diminishing line that forms to the west during the day but weakens as it moves across the WHW forecast area. That front, or what’s left of it, will lift back across the region early Saturday with some cloudiness, and then the door will be open to the arrival of much warmer air from the west as a ridge of high pressure takes over both at the surface and aloft with a westerly air flow. So Saturday turns out in the 80s for most (70s for Cape) and Sunday upper 80s to lower 90s for most with your cooler spots in the typical areas like Cape Cod, and right now it looks like the heat peaks on Monday with lower to middle 90s away from ocean influences, but this could be held back by some spill over cloudiness that arrives from thunderstorm activity in the Midwest, something that is not unusual to see in this pattern at this time of year. Either way, Monday should still have the feel of mid summer despite it being early June and still technically spring.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm South Coast, scattered to isolated showers elsewhere. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. More humid – dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 72-79. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Slightly drier – dew point upper 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Slightly more humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. More humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mostly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 8-12)

The axis of the upper ridge should shift westward enough to allow a back door cold front down from eastern Canada June 8-9 (exact timing uncertain) with mostly dry weather but somewhat cooler air arriving. Battle between high pressure in eastern Canada and the attempted return of warm/humid air may cause episodes of unsettled weather June 10-12.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)

Expecting a mostly zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats as a frontal boundary will often be nearby.

C-19 Chat Post – June 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

Transition time! So technically it’s still spring, until the summer solstice occurs late at night on June 20, but we can get early-season bouts of summer heat, and it appears we may be setting up for one of those to arrive toward the end of this 5-day period. Before we get there, we have some changes to go through – nothing drastic, but notable in the form of a couple more unsettled weather days, but this time not with temperatures that feel more like early April like we saw over the Memorial Day Weekend. Today you’ll notice an increase in clouds ahead of a warm front, which will be moving through the region tomorrow with a few rounds of showers (maybe a few thunderstorms) and an increase in humidity. The parent low for this front will be moving north of us and dragging its cold front through the region on Friday, which will be a rather humid and at times showery day, although a good part of that day may also end up rain-free. But in this case the term “cold front” does not mean that cold air is coming. It may turn a bit cooler and less humid on Friday evening as the front moves offshore, but it’s not going to be followed by a big high pressure area and cool Canadian air. Instead, the jet stream lifting to the north will push that boundary right back across the region as a warm front (with limited activity, just clouds and maybe a brief shower) probably early Saturday, and then during the course of the weekend we’ll build in the summertime heat with dry weather and a gradual increase in humidity, though not to oppressive levels…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 70-77. More humid – dew point climbing to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 72-79. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Slightly drier – dew point upper 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a shower possible early, then mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Slightly more humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93. More humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 7-11)

High pressure offshore brings warm to hot weather with a small risk of a few showers and thunderstorms around as a front from the northwest gets closer to the region, which should eventually push through with some slightly cooler weather mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

Expecting a mostly zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats amidst mostly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – June 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)

After a cool and wet Memorial Day Weekend, which dried out just as it was ending, we have some warmer days coming in as we begin the month of June. High pressure parks off the US Mid Atlantic Coast much of this week, but we still have to push out the lingering cool of the weekend today so the warm up, while noticeable, will be a bit slow to really get going, and there will be a lot of high cloudiness in the sky filtering the sunshine as warmer air moves in aloft as well. By Wednesday, we end up with a bit more sun, but then the clouds come back again later in the day as a disturbance approaches, and this may cause a shower at night, but nothing widespread. Thursday’s humidity and shower threat increases as a cold front approaches. I’ve been back and forth for a few days on whether or not this front fully pushes through the region or moves in and then hangs around. Right now I’m leaning in a direction of frontal passage and it moving offshore allowing slightly less warm and somewhat drier air in on Friday, although it will still be somewhat unstable with a shower threat there. Warmer air makes a return Saturday as that frontal boundary comes back as a warm front and should be moving through during the morning with some clouds and maybe a shower, then more sun and higher humidity…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 74-81. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. More humid with dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 71-78. Less humid. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 58-65. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a shower possible early, then partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. More humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 6-10)

High pressure offshore brings warm to hot weather June 6 with a minimal shower or thunderstorm threat. Maybe a slightly better shower and thunderstorm threat as a frontal boundary gets closer early next week, but unclear if that front pushes all the way through and dries out the air around mid week. Something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)

Low confidence outlook for zonal pattern with variable temperatures and a few shower threats amidst mostly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – June 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

Memorial Day 2021. We’ve all been talking about the unseasonably chilly and wet weather that we’ve had the past few days after having a relatively very nice spring overall. We can complain about it or accept it, hate it or love it, but let’s all take some time to remember why we get to hide from the weather or face it head on. A big part of that reason are people who served us and paid the ultimate sacrifice, and will never get to walk in rain or sun again. Please remember them as you go about your day today….. As far as the weather, we’re not quite out of this yet, but you’ll see signs of improvement today as the most numerous of the lingering showers are occurring as I write this blog update, and are moving through eastern MA and southern NH. In fact, I just had a tiny but heavy downpour cross my location (about 7:40 a.m.). As a low pressure center cuts right across the region and then slowly exits via the Gulf of Maine by midday and afternoon, we’ll see less shower coverage, becoming just isolated, but there will still be enough instability left in the atmosphere that a shower or even isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out right up until the end of the day. Tonight, the drier air finally moves in behind the low for some clearing. This will mark the end of May and meteorological spring, having seen four chilly and fairly wet days, not very representative of meteorological spring overall, which was mild in general, and had significant amounts of dry weather despite some episodes of beneficial rainfall, helping our precipitation deficit get reduced. Meteorological summer arrives Tuesday, the first day of June, and we’ll immediately see a turn in the weather pattern that will put you in summer mode. While Tuesday will only be somewhat warmer, with at least partial sunshine and high temperatures over 70, it will feel quite different than the days preceding it. This trend will continue Wednesday with another warm day, but some clouds will increase later in the day and at night as a weak disturbance approaches. At this time I think the shower activity will hang back mostly to the west of the region at least during the day, but a couple may wander in sometime at night. With high pressure becoming established off the US East Coast toward Bermuda, and a frontal system trying to move into the region from the northwest, Thursday and Friday should be fairly warm and on the humid side, featuring more cloudiness, especially Friday, and some risk of showers and thunderstorms, weighted more toward Friday as it stands now.

TODAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Cloudy with areas of fog and numerous to scattered showers morning. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W to NW 5-15 MPH during the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patches of fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. More humid with dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 73-80. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 5-9)

High pressure will anchor off the US East Coast and probably keep that frontal boundary I talked about mostly to the west and north of the region. Weekend of June 5-6 sees some clouds to start then overall more sun both days with increased heat and moderate to borderline high humidity, but probably no rain threat other than possibly a shower to start out June 5. June 7-9 will see that frontal boundary closer at times with a few opportunities for showers/storms.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

High pressure offshore should weaken, more of a zonal flow pattern arrives with variable temperatures and a few shower threats amidst mostly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – May 31 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

This middle of Memorial Day Weekend blog update will be short. There’s not much change to what was written yesterday. We’re in the midst of a chilly, unsettled stretch of weather that coincided with the long holiday weekend that’s the unofficial start of the summer season, taking on special meaning this year as we come down the home stretch of a year plus that’s been anything but “normal”. Many would love to get out and enjoy some nice weather, but if you get out there again today you’ll have to act more like it’s March. That’s the way it goes sometimes! The next low pressure wave brings its round of rainfall, which will turn more showery in nature as it goes on later today through tonight. Still have hope we get it to exit early enough to salvage a good deal of Memorial Day Monday rain-free. It will warm up slightly that day as well as we lose the northeasterly wind that we still have today. We’re finally free of this system as June arrives, and the first few days look more typically mild to warm for early June, along with slightly higher humidity and eventually the risk for some shower activity as a disturbance and frontal boundary move into the area during the middle of the week…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle especially near the eastern coast. Rain returns south to north during the morning, becoming showery later. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW during the morning then NW during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. More humid with dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 4-8)

An intrusion of cooler air may arrive early in the period before warmer air returns with the general pattern featuring high pressure offshore, high pressure in Canada, and a weak boundary nearby. Episodes of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible at times during this period, with timing uncertain this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

Overall idea right now is similar pattern will continue but shower threat may decrease somewhat.

C-19 Chat Post – May 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

The timing may not be great, but after a fairly warm and dry meteorological spring, we are going to end it with a stretch of cool and wet weather over the Memorial Day Weekend. This happens as a frontal boundary sits to the south of the region and a series of low pressure waves travel along it. The first of these spread its rain into the region late yesterday and provided a good soaking of 1 to 2 inches, much of it falling during the night time hours. Today, as that first low pressure wave departs, the rain will taper off and some residual moisture result in a few more areas of mostly lighter rain crossing the area in patches while low level moisture on a northeast wind creates pockets of drizzle, especially closer to eastern coastal areas. Temperatures that fell into the 40s during the night due to the combination of the advance of a chilly eastern Canadian airmass into the region and colder air being brought down from above by rainfall will hardly recover at all today. With the thick overcast in place, very limited solar radiation will make it through, only enough to “warm” us up a few degrees, so early morning temperatures which range from 42 to 49 across the WHW forecast area will only warm about 3 degrees maximum in any given location. In comparison to the middle 80s to lower 90s we experienced just 3 days ago, that feels pretty cold! However, we’ve seen this happen both in the cool-down and warm-up directions many times here in the spring. It’s just one characteristic of our climate. Another important note: While we’re not exactly experiencing good beach weather this weekend, over the next couple of days, the combination of astronomically high tides and an onshore wind up to moderate speeds will result in areas of coastal flooding around the times of high tides. Water levels may be up to around a foot above normal during peak high tide times, so keep this in mind if you will be near the water. Looking ahead a little, the next main low pressure wave will respond to an upper level wind that turns a little more southerly, and this low is now expected to cut across the Connecticut Valley late Sunday through early Monday, with a more showery rainfall pattern resulting, with fairly good coverage of showers any time Sunday into the morning hours of Memorial Day Monday. If we see a tongue of drier air move up from the southwest quickly enough, it may end up drier for some of the Memorial Day ceremonies being held on Monday, but that part of the forecast will have to be tweaked right up into that morning since it’s hard to predict the timing of showery precipitation, and it will come down to exact location of the low center and trough axis. With a bit more southerly air flow evolving during the latter portion of the weekend, we’ll warm things up slightly, so that some locations may get back to the 60s during Monday. So this ends Meteorological Spring, which was warm and dry overall, on a chilly and wet note, but provides some additional beneficial rainfall. Looking ahead, June begins on a warmer note with a bit more humid feel as high pressure sits over the Middle Atlantic region to just offshore of there on Tuesday and Wednesday, but while this goes on a frontal boundary will be drifting toward our area from the west, bringing with it some clouds, and possibly leading to the chance of showers again by later Wednesday…

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog especially near the coast. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH, strongest at the coast.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Showers likely in the afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW during the morning then NW during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day or evening. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 3-7)

Seasonably warm, more humid, and episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms with the general pattern likely to feature high pressure offshore, high pressure in Canada, and a weak boundary nearby. An intrusion of cooler air is possible around June 4-5, but not certain.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

Overall idea right now is similar pattern will continue but shower threat may decrease somewhat.

C-19 Chat Post – May 29 2021