C-19 Chat Post – January 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

A disturbance passing through the region today will result in a very minor precipitation event with a touch of rain and snow at times, but with surface temperatures above freezing, any snow that falls will not cause any issues. Drier weather moves back in tonight and Friday as a small area of high pressure noses into the region. A large area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region on Friday will send an occluding frontal system toward the East Coast late Friday into Saturday, on which a new low pressure area will form and bring some enhanced rainfall into the region to start the 3-day weekend. This will move out later Saturday and be followed by drier weather for Sunday before the energy associated with the original low pressure area comes across the region Monday, along with colder air, with the potential for some scattered snow shower activity on Dr. MLK Jr. Day.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few periods of light rain & snow likely. Highs 35-42. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thin out. Lows 29-36. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning and midday. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (DR. MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

We will still be under the influence of a blocking pattern and as has been the case for some time, anything beyond a few days is rather low confidence. So outside of knowing that the blocking pattern goes on, the day-to-day details are nearly impossible to even approach. Recent guidance has shown two potential storm systems, but I’d lean toward January 22-23 as being the “best” opportunity for a storm to impact the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Weakening and possible breaking down of the blocking pattern should begin during this period which may increase our risk for a couple of low pressure impacts as a southern storm track shifts a little bit more to the north. Still low confidence but feel this is the most likely scenario at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – January 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

The quiet stretch of weather continues for another 3 days, although we have a tiny bit to watch for Thursday as low pressure passing well south of us will be raced by a disturbance passing through here, and their distant connection may help generate a bit of light rain and snow in our area. Finally a more potent system will make its way into the Northeast Friday night and Saturday, first as a broad area of low pressure entering the Great Lakes, and as its frontal system nears the East Coast we’ll see a new low form on it. There should be enough mild air around that the meaningful precipitation from this system falls as rain during the morning and midday hours of Saturday, based on current timing. While the exact track of that low is not nailed down yet, it should be close to or right over southeastern New England, and assuming it’s not moving more slowly than currently expected, we should see a drier end to Saturday, along with more wind, as snow showers stack up in the mountains west and north of our region. Probably should not rule out a stray snow shower making it into the WHW forecast area Saturday night. Sunday, expect a chilly day with a gusty wind but fair weather as low pressure drifts away via the Maritime Provinces of Canada and a sliver of high pressure approaches from the west.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period or two of very light rain and/or snow possible. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning and midday. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Lingering low pressure in the Great Lakes region finally moves eastward through New England while a storm generates offshore, but probably too far offshore for direct impact here on Monday (Dr. MLK Jr. Day), leaving our region with just a chance of snow showers with seasonably cold air. Blocking pattern continues and chilly/dry weather should dominate the middle of next week with any additional disturbances passing to the south, but we may need to watch for an approaching low pressure area by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Still low confidence, but a bit more indication that we’ll start to see the blocking pattern break down, or at least weaken. Watching for potential storm systems to impact the region to start the period, and again late in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – January 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

Blocking rolls on. We stay fairly quiet for a few more days before a low pressure system finally has a more notable impact on the region, but not until Saturday as it looks now. We will still some episodic cloudiness from weak disturbances passing by this area through Thursday. High pressure center in Canada will nose down into the region Thursday night and Friday, with a tranquil period of weather hanging on until a broad low pressure system enters the Great Lakes region and pushes its frontal boundary toward the East Coast where a new low pressure area will form southwest of New England, moving just west of or over our region early on Saturday. The set-up and track likely means a period of rain here Saturday morning. While it’s still several days away, it looks like this system may be moving along so we dry out before Saturday’s over, but will tweak the timing & resultant forecast as needed.

TODAY: Sun & clouds, sun ruling the morning-midday, clouds ruling later. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds dominant evening before decreasing during overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning. Breaking clouds afternoon from west to east. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

High pressure is expected to bring fair and seasonably chilly weather January 17. As we continue to be in a blocking pattern the general idea is to return to the set-up we’ve had much of this week with weaker energy moving through out area, so there is potential for some unsettled weather a couple of times but the early outlook is for no major storm systems.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

A very low confidence forecast period (lower than even typically for this far out). Continuing to monitor for possible weakening or break down of blocking, but also a more active pattern with increased chances for unsettled weather later in the month, as well as at least slightly better risk of colder weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

The atmospheric block will continue during the next 5 days, although this pattern has been resulting in dry weather and slightly above average temperatures and will continue to do just that during the next 4 days, although some episodes of cloudiness will be the result of weak disturbances moving across the region. Finally by Friday, a stronger low will take a track northwest of New England, dragging milder air in along with rain showers, likely ending the lengthy stretch of dry weather.

TODAY: Early sun otherwise mainly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early then clearing west to east. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through midday then some clouds returning again. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely especially afternoon and night. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

As low pressure continues to pass north of the region and move away January 16 may dawn showery and mild followed by drying & colder along with a gusty wind. High pressure brings fair weather for January 17. Watching 1 or 2 potential systems to bring unsettled weather between January 18 & 20 but this is very low confidence. Temperatures look somewhat closer to normal for the middle and end of the period but not seeing as strong a sign of a visit from arctic air as was previously indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

Continuing to monitor for possible weakening or break down of blocking, but also a more active pattern with increased chances for unsettled weather later in the month, as well as at least slightly better risk of colder weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

A strong blocking pattern continues to keep our weather on the quiet side. This will not be changing during this 5 day period either as we see yet another storm system fail to organize while passing south of the region Tuesday, and another batch of energy fail to materialize into much as it goes by the region fairly unnoticeable by the middle of the week.

TODAY: Sun & some high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

Blocking pattern continues. Activity in our area increases during this 5-day period, starting with a low pressure area tracking northwest of the region, a milder day with a risk of rain showers January 15 followed by a drier/colder start to the Dr. MLK Jr. weekend January 16-17 which may end with a rain/mix/snow threat on January 18 before fair weather returns again.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

Monitoring for a weakening of the blocking pattern and a somewhat more active storm track into the Northeast. A lot of uncertainties out this far.

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C-19 Chat Post – January 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

A quiet weekend as our ongoing blocking pattern shunts the storm track to the south, with one passing out to seas well south of the region today before high pressure builds in Sunday. While a few high & mid level clouds are around during the day from that storm passing well to the south, a northerly air flow will bring some ocean cloudiness into portions of southeastern MA today. Sunday’s sky will be cloud-free. The storm track will remain suppressed early next week although a little less so, so the next disturbance in the pipeline will have the chance to get a little bit closer to the region on Tuesday while another trough approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. So far, this period looks more like a cloudier time versus having any significant precipitation, but I’ll keep an eye on it…

TODAY: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy at times MA South Shore through Cape Cod. Highs 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

Another disturbance should scoot through from west to east at the same time temperatures moderate but only expecting a rain or snow shower threat for January 15 before a shot of colder air arrives for the MLK Jr Weekend. We may need to watch for a storm system before that weekend is over, but this is a longer range look with low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

A weakening of the blocking pattern is possible. This should allow for another cold shot at some point and at least one precipitation potential.

C-19 Chat Post – January 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

Strong blocking continues, keeping it dry here while the storm track is forced to the south through at least the weekend. The next system may get closer by Tuesday but the evolution and track remain in question.

TODAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 34-41. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

We will continue in a blocking pattern with active and changeable weather. We’re vulnerable to unsettled weather through January 15 followed by a shot of Arctic air to end the period. as a result of it, starting with a storm threat int he January 12-13 period, depending on how close low pressure from the southwest gets to our area, followed by what looks like a weaker system passing by around January 15 and a shot of arctic air potentially arriving at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Blocking should continue but may weaken. I continue moderately confident of a colder than normal period here but less confident about any storm threats.

C-19 Chat Post – January 8 2021