Friday July 3 2026 Forecast (6:56AM)

88 Comments

COMMENTARY

Most of yesterday’s high temps in the region were in the middle to upper 90s. There were a couple locations that “officially” touched 100, though Boston’s sensor accuracy is in question so their 100 was likely a 99 (and won’t be corrected). They hit 100+ last summer (June 24) and some media is wailing how rare it is to see a 100-degree reading two summers in a row. Yes, statistically it’s fairly rare, but even more rare was the time it hit 100+ FOUR times in the same summer: 1911. There are always anomalies in stats driven by something with a significant chaos factor. That’s just how it works. Anyway, just keeping it real as always. On we go!

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

Our hot stretch continues for two more days, though tomorrow, Independence Day, is a transition day. Today we remain under high pressure aloft with high pressure at the surface to our south and a generally westerly air flow of high heat and fairly high humidity. Again a west northwest wind coming off the hills can dry out the coastal plain at time – which is what helped launch Boston’s temp toward the century mark yesterday – the dew point which had be in the lower 70s just hours before had fallen to the mid 60s. Watch for that again today, although officially I am not forecasting anybody to hit 100 – just many 90s. If the wind lightens up enough, feeble coastal sea breezes can occur, but for the most part, we’ll be looking at a land breeze and very hot weather. Parts of Cape Cod and of course Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard are more exposed to ocean influence so it won’t be quite as hot there, obviously. It will be rain-free today, in general, but I cannot rule out a pop-up isolated air mass thunderstorm today and a passing storm somewhere this evening or tonight with a weak disturbance coming through in the northwest flow aloft. Our transition out of the hot spell takes place on the Saturday holiday as a cold front drops through the region. My current thought is that a pre-frontal trough will trigger initial shower and thunderstorm activity as early as late morning into midday, with the threat of this activity lasting through mid afternoon north of I-90 then shifting to the south mid afternoon to very early evening. Cells may be more numerous the further west you are, and less so further east. I do think that all activity will be offshore by the time of the scheduled evening fireworks displays, as it stands now, but I will monitor the situation very closely. Humidity will remain high on Saturday and it will also be another hot day with many areas reaching or exceeding 90, but not getting close to the levels of yesterday and today due to more cloudiness and the shower / thunderstorm chance, as well as the front passing through and shifting the wind from north to south, introducing a new air mass to the region by the end of the day. With favorable timing, it will be quite comfortable in comparison to previous hours by Saturday night. Sunday looks like a decent summer day with a fair amount of sun, seasonably warm air, and lower humidity with an area of high pressure in eastern Canada. This high will hang out up there into early next week as a wave of two of low pressure ride along the frontal boundary to our south. Right now, I think some shower activity will skirt the South Coast but remain mostly to our south on Monday, before high pressure to the north retreats enough to allow it into our region by Tuesday, which looks like an unsettled day.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. A remote chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Highs 92-99 except 84-91 Cape Cod. Dew most mostly 65+ but can fall under that at times in the coastal plain. Wind W 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Lows 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially late morning to mid afternoon, except until late afternoon South Coast region. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+ but lowering from north to south later in the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW from north to south by late-day. Higher wind gusts can occur near any storms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point falls below 60 late. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Possible showers South Coast. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers possible South Coast evening then anywhere overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Showers may linger July 8. Shower and thunderstorm a slight potential about July 10 and a greater potential by July 12. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

88 thoughts on “Friday July 3 2026 Forecast (6:56AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    85 up from LOW of 81
    We made 99 here in JP yesterday.

    Ocean: 67

    Wordle: 3

    Last night Pete said Logan hit 101 yesterday. So what is the “official” word on that? 100 or 101 sensor not withstanding.

    Best I can tell, Logan”s low temperature this morning was 82.9. What was the official low
    AND was it a record high Low temperature for the date and all time for that matter ?

    And with such a high launching point this morning, why wouldn’t 100 be in play again? I believe it is in play. Pete had 101 for Boston today.

    Either way it will be another putridly hot day for sure.

    Very grateful we didn’t lose power yesterday. Hoping we don’t lose it today or tomorrow either.

    1. FWIW,
      The NWS point forecast for my location is 101.

      I’ll go with an even 100 for my O/U today. I missed by 1 degree yesterday.

    2. Superb 3 !

      The climate report for Logan yesterday says 101F at 3:23pm, per Norton NWS climate data. In btwn ob reports, that, interestingly were both 99F. The most 100F readings came in a bit later.

  5. It’s already 88 at Logan. I am showing 89, but I suspect it is 87 as reflection may be starting. My temp won’t be valid until about 10-10:30 then it wil be back on track. There are a couple of nearby stations I can use to judge when my sensor is back on track.

  6. On the Meso West site, if I select the 24 hour Minimum temperature, I get 82 for Boston. I had 81 here.

    Mark mentioned Philadelphia. The 2 stations there had
    82 at the Airport to the South and 84 at the station on the North side of the city. Pretty impressive low temperatures.

    1. 82.9 was the low at the airport here essentially tying the all time record warmest low temp of 83.

      It was still 92 with a heat index of 102 at 11:30pm when I went to bed last night.

      Just got to the softball field and already up to 90 at 8:30am. I don’t think Philly will break their all time record high today of 106 but they are not going to be far off. NWS saying dewpoints will be a few degrees lower today which should allow the air temps to be a few ticks higher.

  7. From what I can tell the 82 for a low this morning at Logan is a record for the date. Can anyone confirm that? Thanks

      1. BDL also broke their record high minimum for the day with a low of 77 (previous record 73).

  8. If I am reading correctly the LOW temp at Newark this morning was 87.1 and high yesterday was 105.1 ! Either that sensor is running a high or it is placed too close to the runway. Either way that is insanely hot.

    Central Park low was 84.

    1. The program is a mess right now and many sensors are either bad or placed in far less than optimal locations.

      1. I wonder how reliable the old data is. Does it make sense to finely compare current readings against those from many years ago.

  11. 90 at Logan which is 20-30 minutes earlier than yesterday.
    Not sure if it means anything, just pointing it out.

    1. Logan’s dp is 68. Every station N&W of Logan has a dp of 70 or higher. Is there an issue with Logan’s Dew Point sensor Or humidity sensor if the DP is calculated based on temp and humidity.

      1. Logan has tmrp of 90 and RH 49, so that calculates to dew point of 68. So I am thinking it is calculated and there might be an issue with their Relative Humidity sensor.

        Of course, I don’t know for sure. I can say that the DAVIS INstruments weather stations do NOT have a Dp sensor but rather calculate the DP based on temperature and Relative humidity.

        1. The ASOS equipment is pure crap.

          I can only imagine how those mets feel not being able to do a thing about it.

  12. Yesterday NY hit 100 for the first time since July 2012. There weather records are kept at Central Park. BDL hit 100 for the first time since July 2019. BOS hit 100 for the second straight year.
    Which place or places will see back to back 100 degree days???
    My guess is NY

    2. Boston’s 100 comes with an *.

      I maintain and firmly believe it’s off by 1.

    1. That is just I, fwiw. Bradley will be very close, so they also “could” make it. We’ll know later.

      If Boston does not make it, it will be close, like 98 or 99.

  14. All station to the South and SW of Boston have dew points of
    between 72 and 74.

    I have dp 72 here.

  15. Thanks, TK!

    87 right now.
    73 overnight low
    96 here yesterday. My nomadic sensor has finally a home. I think where it is now is very accurate. The readings match up pretty well with the East Taunton airport and the instruments at NWS-BOX. The East Taunton readings are hourly and the Norton office readings are recorded daily.

    ASOS at East Taunton recorded 99 yesterday afternoon. The reading from Norton has not been posted yet.

    The last time it hit 100 here in Taunton was July 20, 2013.

    103 is the all-time Taunton record (July 22, 2011) and the all-time minimum low was 78 in 1917. It was 73 earlier this morning.

    1. I don’t either. 99 for sure, perhaps even 100 but NOT 101.

      We shall see today.

  18. The Wayback Machine this morning stops at the nation’s Bicentennial, celebrated 50 years ago tomorrow.

    On July 4, 1976, Elton John (the original “Captain Fantastic”) played Foxboro’s Schaefer Stadium to celebrate the country’s 200th birthday.

    He came on stage dressed as the Statue of Liberty:

    https://imgur.com/a/qcFloyc

    Memory #2: CBS had 24-hour coverage of the nation’s Bicentennial with Walter Cronkite. At just the correct moment, CBS switched to the Boston Pops concert as the orchestra was about to play “The 1812 Overture” and “The Stars and Stripes Forever.” I think it was this nationwide coverage that created the phenomenon that is Boston’s own with the Fourth of July Esplanade show that we now know. I believe the Pops have always played a Fourth concert, but, because of the CBS coverage on the Bicentennial, it has become a huge event. I could be wrong on this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-fGZzS2M1s

    Speaking of CBS, I have been fondly remembering the “Bicentennial Minute” that the network aired nightly during 1976. The series told the story of the events leading up to and following our independence. I found the “Bicentennial Minute” explaining Boston’s Evacuation Day, March 17, 1776:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93s5mXL0WZk

  21. 92/70 here. Temperature rise is very slow today.
    We may top out several degrees below 100. Still plenty hot.
    About 4 or 5 hours more for that temperature to increase. We shall see.

  24. Thanks TK.

    (Do you know where the security entry points for the Esplanade are for the 4th?)

    1. Yes.

      The bridges on the end are entry. East is for oval. West is for island. Middle bridge is exit only.

      1. A couple of the umpires have gone down due to heat related illness so far today. Many of them are out there for 4-5 games in a row and don’t have the ability to take long a/c breaks like we have been doing. It’s just brutal. Only silver lining is there is a breeze again today.

  26. One more day to go with this heat and then from what I am seeing on X it will be the western part of the U.S. where the next heat dome will be come mid month.

  27. Dew point down to the lower 60s at Logan. 🙂

    Not surprised though.

  28. Having just stepped outside a little while ago I felt yesterday was worse.

  29. 1 p.m.

    91-98 most places. Dew point 61-68 most places (some 68-72 toward the South Coast).

    “Hottest in years” hmmm? Not quite.

    Truer statement: “hottest since yesterday”. 😉

    Sensationalized information needs to GO.

    It’s a hot summer day. Stay hydrated out there!

    1. Downslope.

      I read somewhere that would be a factor Thursday and Friday and therefore Wednesday would be the most humid day at Boston.

    1. we’re at 97 , dp 65 and it doesn’t look like it wants to go up any more. 🙂

  35. Temp…and dewpoint have remained stagnant at 99 and 75 respectively here for a sickening 112 heat index. So much for today being less humid and temps being a bit hotter. Wind was blowing pretty good today at up to 20 mph which felt like a hair dryer but helped a bit.

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch is up for this area till 11PM.

        1. You’re darn tootin’! 😉

          I’ll always stick up for the right way.

          Even if people in suits are forever blind to it.

      2. BUT, it will be all over the news how Boston had 2 back-to-back days of 100 degrees!!!!!

        1. Yes. The two MA state climatologists that I dealt with (both passed away) would be outraged at the lack of scrutiny of our climate data now. They’d be appalled, and 100% justified.

    1. Just across the harbor. I wonder where the censor is at Castle Island.

      We’re 6 miles from Logan and we made 98 today and 99 yesterday pretty much perfectly in line with your forecast highs, 🙂

  40. Wonderful day at Hampton Beach NH today!

    Just got home. A little break before I head to my pyro tour stop tonight: Gloucester!

  41. Atlantic City currently at 104 after a high of 105.1 in the last hour. They hit 102.9 yesterday. Another suspect sensor?

    Them aside, noticing that highs are mostly a degree or two lower today that yesterday.

  42. I had 100.3 yesterday and 100.2 today in my part of JP.

    Regardless it’s been very hot and dry.

  44. Thanks Tk . 94 in pembroke now . It’s hot but yesterday it was hotter .

  45. Boston’s first heatwave of the summer. A long way to go to get the record of 5 heatwaves in a single summer … 1949.

    So just to reiterate: Boston recorded highs of 101 and 100.
    The actual highs are 100 and 99.
    They won’t be recorded that way or corrected, but I’ll mention it here again, and I will also continue to point out the errors in temperature (and precipitation) as long as they exist, so at least here we are aware of what actually happened.

    I am a firm believer in accurate statistics. You’ll see many examples of this here on my blog going forward.

    1. Do you have any plans to report the NWS error to them or would it be a complete waste of time? I suppose 1 lousy degree isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things BUT if they don’t recalibrate soon does it get more inaccurate with time? 2,3, 4 degrees off etc.?

      1. 1 degree is a big deal.
        For example: Boston is now “on record” as having had two consecutive 100 degree days for the first time since 1944. Had the thermo been accurate, it would only be one.

        And given the behavior of such equipment, it would probably get worse. They actually need to use better equipment, period.

  46. The highs of “100F” that was recorded for Boston the past two days reminds me of the 27.5” that did NOT fall during the President’s Day snowstorm in 2003. IIRC the average for that event was more like around 18-20” regionwide.

    If I’m not mistaken all other official reporting stations recorded more like 97-99F. Unfortunately high heat returns again later next week. Sigh. 🙁

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