Saturday July 4 2026 Forecast (8:16AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy 250th to the USA! While I think the majority of locations planning fireworks celebrations this evening will get them in without much difficulty, mother nature may try to put on her own fireworks show in some locations. It’ll come down to the details of thunderstorm development and movement of storms as we move through afternoon into evening. I’m still of the opinion that the majority of our region will deal with little or no significant activity, but there can be some scattered heavier showers and storms around, primarily from mid afternoon to very early evening from north to south. Some short range guidance has indicated a couple additional showers and storms can be in the region into early tonight, but I’m leaning away from this information being correct, as I have seen quite a few similar errors in this guidance of late (some of it is still in experimental mode). So I’ll lean optimistic for the evening hours when we start to see an air mass change from the hot and fairly humid one we’ve had into a less hot and less humid one that will make our Sunday quite nice. After that we turn our attention to the front that went by, as it will slow down and come to a stop just south of our region and be the focus for an area of low pressure moving along it early next week. Based on current expectation, I think our greatest chance to see additional rainfall will be south of I-90 on Monday and more widespread in the region for Tuesday. This should taper off with just a few lingering showers Wednesday as the low pressure wave departs. Tomorrow’s blog update will focus a little more on the Monday through Wednesday time frame. In the mean time, stay cool, hydrated, and safe today!

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, greatest chance being west of I-95 and south of I-90. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 parts of Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH shifts to NW late-day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible early mainly RI / eastern CT. Clearing overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point drops to 50s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Possible showers South Coast. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers possible South Coast evening then anywhere overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers diminish. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible especially south of I-90 early. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

A warm shot early period then a cold front may cause a thunderstorm and introduce a more seasonable air mass mid period before warmth and humidity and shower / t-storm chances return later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

64 thoughts on “Saturday July 4 2026 Forecast (8:16AM)”

  1. Extreme Heat Warning has been replaced with a Heat Advisory for today. No surprise there.

  2. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: 6. Once I saw the word, well, I would have liked to gotten it a little quicker 🙂

    Nice explanation on your thoughts for possible storms later on.

    Hopefully, the Monday, but especially Tuesday time frame for rain can end up beneficial for a large part of the region.

    1. How yiu feeling these days?

      You got the word. I’LL probably join yiu in the 6 car. About to give it a whirl now.

  4. Knowing that Mark Rosenthal often reads along here, I’d like to wish him a Happy Birthday today!

    1. One of my all time favorites.
      I wish he was still on air.

      Happy Birthday!!!!

  5. Good morning and thank you TK

    My equipment is reading 90. Same relection problem. Nearby locations are reading 86, so that is about what my temp is. I’ll have valid readings around 10-1030. However I can say low was 79. Logan low was 80 best I could tell.

    Ocean: 71

    Perfect day for swimming in the ocean.

    Wordle; 5. Almost joined you Tom.
    My starting word didn’t give me much to go on.

    RE; 4TH
    sorry as long as the orange menace and his band of idiots are dismantling our democracy, I have no reason to celebrate today. Just can’t do it. If we ger back to normal then let the celebration begin!!!

    1. Interesting. They moved the marginal risk to cover our area. Hope for “some” storms?
      Hope so

      1. I’m going to pass on that hoping for storms. I’m heading to the Esplanade.

  8. Thanks, TK!

    My sensor also caught the morning sun and hit 90. It’s now reads 86.

    Happy Independence Day on our 250th birthday!

    Hope everyone has a star-spangled day! 🙂

    1. Capt, I’ll be happy just to survive today.

      TUES. 89
      WED 96
      THUR 99
      FRI. 98
      SAT. 90+????

      ENOUGH ALREADY!!@

      Most grateful we didn’t lose power, not yet anyway.

  10. I’ve thorougly enjoyed this week’s weather as you all know because I’m a fan of summer heat that reminds me of years like 1995, 1988, 1983, 1980, and a few times in the 1970s. But as it prepares to end for this round, I also am a fan of what we’re about to get. Being easy to please is something I’m happy to be. 🙂

    Anyway, plan for today is to head out at noon and the Boston excursion starts with the North End before we end up in the security line for the 4p.m. esplanade opening.

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY USA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  13. Downslope Effect…
    When Boston hit 100 (99 really), the dew point dropped to 57.
    Once that effect had fully disappeared, the dew point climbed back toward 70 last night. See how this works?

    Also, many media members again saying we’ve never had a heatwave like this. We haven’t? Yes, yes we have. Many times. They can just stop making stuff up now in the name of ratings. Boston fell shy of their record on Wednesday, edge it out on Thursday, missed it on Friday, and will fall well short of it today. That is NOT an unprecedented heatwave. It’s a hot stretch in early summer due to an upper high pressure ridge. And when that ridge collapses and moves back to the west starting this weekend into next week, we’ll see the end of the hot spell. Funny how that works. #ScienceForTheWin … again.

    “I don’t ever remember it being this hot before”. Ok, well that’s either because you were not here, or you have a really bad memory. It’s one of those two. Calling it like I see it. 🙂

    1. You are 100% on!!! Thankfully, I can remember stretches this hot. I AM ready for it to end, thank you.

    1. They will be several degrees less hot than yesterday.

      I miss the days of going into Boston in early to mid morning and on hot days they’d have multiple misting tents and cooling stations set up, and people would use their best judgement as to what to do.

      Now, the easy way I guess is just to open at 4 p.m. instead of noon. I suspect any time the forecast is for over 90 degrees this is going to be the future procedure of this event.

    1. They reached “90” before anyone else, i.e., 89. 🙂

      Now that the censor read 91 it finally did touch 90. I’m 88 here in Woburn, but departing now for Boston. I’ll find out later what it got to here. My guess is 93.

        1. Of course it’s the longest one of the season. They haven’t had any before this one. 😉 And to think, this one came largely without dew points in the 70s. They dropped as low as 57 yesterday! Borderline DRY!

  16. Currently 89 in pembroke & just went In the pool for the first time as I couldn’t resist

  18. Thanks TK for giving us the detailed forecast on this holiday. We have had several power outages I. This area from 5-10 minutes in length. Need the cool down to happen. This weekend reminds me of summer of 99 4th of July which was also a scorcher. God Bless America!

  21. Thanks TK. Happy 4th all!!

    I think Boston makes out ok this evening. Much higher chances for disruptions in NYC, Philly, and DC.

    1. Thank you WxWatcher

      4 stinkers in a row here!!!

      I’d wager it doesn’t rain a drop anywhere in the city of Boston.

  22. I think the Boston side of esplanade was just evacuated due to lightning nearby . Everything is delayed

  24. Went mountain climbing in the Whites early today. Went with my son … good climb to Zealand Falls. temps stayed in the 70’s.

  26. What a storm cell that just passed over Hingham! Does anyone have that weather.gov page that tracks how much rain falls in a town every 15min for Hingham? It was a lot. Temps plummeted to 73.8 degrees.

      1. That must be what has the pops on a rain delay. I came here to see why cause I’m not seeing much on on radar

    2. Nothing in pembroke . The ponds In My hood our having an absolutely awesome fireworks shootout & I can watch from my driveway . Two more days off !!

  27. When Jane Lynch goes back to the “Pops Spectacular Archives” I wish the year it occurred was posted. Frankly I don’t know which is “previously recorded” or “live”.

    Nothing here in Quincy. According to Ch. 7 it was supposed to turn stormy here around 7:30 but that time has come and gone. It got dark for a couple minutes (literally) but cleared up once again.

    Did Boston miss as well?

    As I rant, it is now LIVE and the concert is about to begin (for real I hope). 🙂

    1. As I am now watching LIVE, dark clouds still over the Hatch Shell in the distance but I assume everything is ok.

  28. I got a severe thunderstorm warning for my area with a destructive tag attached to this.

  29. Thankfully no destructive winds where I am. Lot of rain thunder and lightning.

    1. It’s still a lot more than Boston received. Now I wonder if the evacuation/delay was necessary.

  30. I heard about this heat with the pops delayed . this was never done as a kid growing up . Folks have a choice & won’t go if it’s too hot , Society today is like oh it’s hot let’s close outside seating as folks will melt . Guess what some folks want to be in the heat & the ones that don’t will sit inside . I saw some hot pops 4th of July growing up & never recall a delayed opening cause of heat , give me a break it’s called choices . End of Rant

    1. I disagree. EMS crews might have been swamped. A lot can happen in 4 hours (12-4pm).

  32. * At 928 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Westerly, or
    near Mystic, moving southeast at 40 mph. There is an additional
    line of thunderstorms approaching from Salem through Niantic.

    HAZARD…70 mph wind gusts.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Expect significant wind damage to trees, power lines,
    mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

    * Locations impacted include…
    South Kingstown, Westerly, Narragansett, Hopkinton, Charlestown,
    and Richmond.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
    building.

    This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing
    widespread wind damage across southeast Connecticut. SEEK SHELTER
    NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

  34. I guess I will take some of my “rant” back. It did downpour on the Esplanade so the evacuation was necessary after all. No lightning but who wants to get drenched upon? 🙂

    That downpour definitely missed my area.

    1. We got out of there, and 1/2 hour were back in. Security and organization were fabulous!

      The security folks (and law enforcement) I talked to, and I spoke to a lot of them, were a little disappointed they didn’t start until 4. They also thought noon was adequate. It’s been hotter down there before than it was today, and the humidity was not oppressive. There was a very nice breeze and only limited sun, even before we got there. In fact, they started letting people in early. 😉

      100% worth going. The drone show was amazing, and the fireworks show was in the top 3 shows of the 36 I have seen there.

      What an awesome event!!!!

      1. Exactly disappointed is the right word . Many , many yrs growing up I’ve seen hot 4ths & the & it never affected the show . If it’s that hot folks have a choice & if someone disagrees with this you’re wrong . Today’s world is just different folks want to control things . People have choices to do things in life or not do things

  35. Quite a rainy late night on the South Coast with impressive lightning displays. My sister is in from Poughkeepsie and dealing with reports of damage to her house from a microburst – may have been a tornado

    1. All straight line / potential microbursts. There was no rotation on any storm.

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