DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

We finish up June today and Tuesday with a warming trend as a high pressure ridge builds to our west. Sunshine will be initially limited by fog & stratus in parts of southern MA, RI, and eastern CT early today, but that will dissipate leaving a filtered sunshine by both passing high clouds and high altitude smoke, the latter of which has travelled our way in the jet stream from the western portions of North America. Most of this should be driven to our south by Tuesday with more of a northwesterly air flow on the eastern side of a ridge. One other things we’ll have to watch for in the upper flow is a disturbance riding over the top of the ridge and bringing a batch or two of showers and thunderstorms through our region Tuesday afternoon or night. Forecasting the details of these things is difficult, even sometimes in the short-term, so heading into Tuesday we’ll see a trend toward more cloudiness and we’ll have to eye observations and radar to see how things evolve, which could be anything from a few showers and storms to a more general rain / t-storm area passing by. The upper ridge will build eastward as we begin July, and Wednesday through Friday will be hot days here. The position of the ridge should deflect most “over the top” convection to our north, but we’ll still have to keep an eye out for a stray thunderstorm at times. This heat will also come with higher humidity. Those with outdoor plans, work or leisure, should take note, and use caution. We may have to be a bit more alert for a thunderstorm potential by Friday as a slight retrogression of the upper ridge gets underway. I’ll monitor that during this week.

TODAY: Early-day fog / low cloud patches southern areas, otherwise filtered sun with high clouds and high-altitude smoke. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm is possible afternoon and evening. Highs 82-89. Dewpoint 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Lows 64-71. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+ Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 67-74. Dewpoint 65+. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 91-98 except 80s Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible. Highs 90-97 except 80s Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

Watching for a back-door front to cool down at least eastern areas during the July 4-5 weekend, which will not be without a shower and thunderstorm threat, though the highest chance may shift to the west. Trend to more seasonable temperatures into next week with a few shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures slightly variable but averaging near normal overall.