Sunday June 28 2026 Forecast (8:40AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

A marine layer has enabled a lot of stratus and fog to form (or move in from the ocean) overnight. Sunshine is already out in some areas to the west and northwest, and eventually the stratus and fog will break up and dissipate enough so the region overall ends up with a mixture of sun and clouds today, but we’ll see cumulus clouds popping up once again, like yesterday, as the sea breezes redevelop during the day. It is near these boundaries that these clouds can grow enough to produce a few showers, even downpours and isolated thunder. The vast majority of any region stays dry and most areas that see any rainfall don’t see it for very long. If you have outdoor plans, just keep an eye on the sky and/or the radar. Any such activity dissipates with the setting sun and we’ll have a fair and quiet night with fog patches. High pressure will be in general control of our weather as we head through the last couple days of June and into the start of July. The large scale pattern configures itself so that the center of surface high pressure sinks to the south and we end up on the eastern side of a strong upper high pressure ridge to our west. This allows for the build in of summer heat as we get into the middle of the week. The other thing we’ll have to keep watch for are showers and thunderstorms that ride over the top of the ridge from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes then drop southeastward across the Northeast. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to passing activity. Sometimes such activity is benign, and other times it can bring strong to severe storms. It being very difficult to pinpoint these until they are only a number of hours away, it will be important to follow forecast updates and keep track of radar each day from Tuesday on.

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog to start, transitioning to a sun / cloud mix by late morning on. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest in coastal locations. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes, pushing inland somewhat.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Fog patches form. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early fog patches, otherwise sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 82-89. Dewpoint 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 86-93. Dew point 60+ Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 67-74. Dewpoint 65+. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 90-97 except 80s some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

Same general upper pattern that establishes during the next several days remains in place for this period. Upper high pressure does nudge eastward a little but also amplifies with its axis remaining to our west. July 3 features heat and humidity with a slight chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Probable back-door cold front provides relief from the hotter weather over the July 4-5 weekend but still can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm in otherwise mostly fair weather. A little uncertain for July 6-7 whether the maritime air holds or the hotter weather from the west makes a comeback. Leaning toward the former. Still can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm either of those days.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Most believable trend is for high pressure ridging to retrograde westward and a little more westerly air flow aloft takes over here with a return to the summer version of an up-and-down temperature pattern with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as disturbances / fronts pass by the region. Additional detail in time, as usual.

76 thoughts on “Sunday June 28 2026 Forecast (8:40AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    74 up from 64

    Ocean: 63

    Wordle: 4

    Coastal areas may be spared the worst of the heat for some of the days, but inland looks to have a prolonged heat wave. Logan may not even reach heat wave status due to possible sea breezes. We shall see. If they do, then likely 3 days and no more while inland could be 4-6 day heat wave. We shall see how it plays out.
    AND 100 is in play Thursday and Friday. Will we reach b it? We shall see. I think at least some areas do. Either way, plenty HOT!!

    1. Interestingly (as SAK pointed out to me earlier), the operational models of both the GFS & ECMWF run 5 to 10 degrees hotter than the ensemble mean for all 3 days Wednesday through Friday. It gets ignored about as much as the ensemble snowfall forecasts do during the winter. 😉

      1. 5-10 higher? Are the ensemble numbers always correct?
        I am going by previous times of heat. The Euro has been pretty awfully close. If it is high, it’s only been by a degree or 2 and not 5-10.

        I still say 100 is in play. Am I full of shit? could be as often I am.
        We shall see. 🙂

        Believe me I do NOT want the heat. NOT AT ALL!!!!!

        But it its going to be 97, then why not a 100 and be done with it. Not much difference there.

        In any case will be fun to monitor….

        2. BTW, I did just take a look at the EURO ensemble 2m temperatures and they were a solid 5 degrees or so LOWER than the operational run. So, I do see what you mean. I wonder if some of the ensemble members had more of a sea breeze knocking back the average?
          I dunno. Just because the ensemble mean says it will be 96, does not mean it will be 96. It could still end up the operational 100 or 101. I will be watching this as we move forward. Most interesting.

          1. This is exactly true. Just like in winter, the lower snowfall numbers on the mean are not always CORRECT. However, they are a better guide beyond a few days out.

    2. Awesome 4. I have two letters only both in correct place after 5 guesses and absolutely no idea what word Is

      1. I was totally CLUELESS after 3 guesses where I ended up
        with 2 letters in position. I set it down for awhile and then I came back to it and started substituting letters. Then all of a sudden out of the blue it came into my head and I got the word on guess 4. It is a common word and you will hit yourself on your head when you see what it is. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Good luck.

      2. Thank you, Today marks my longest streak now at 45 days.
        My previous longest was 36 days.

    1. Welcome to the 4 car. So far we are co-engineers. Will it say that way? time will tell.

  9. TK: Curious

    Last evening Jeff Harrington on Ch10 had 100 for Thursday.
    So, he was clearly going by the operational runs.

    Is this common for a professional on air Met? Wouldn’t it have been more prudent to go with the ensembles and paint a 96 or 97 for Thursday instead of the 100?

    There seems to be some inconsistencies across the on air profession. AND it can be very misleading to the public.

    1. I honestly don’t think most of these media folks have the time to consult every tool available. The demands between on-air broadcasts, promotional hits, and social media leaves them limited time to breathe. And there’s always the factor of “pleasing the boss”. That’s the real deal.

      1. Figures. That’s a crying shame. Oh well, such is life these days.
        Thank you for your response.

      1. I sure do. I knew there was a trick. Took me a bit to figure what it was. But finally was able to

      2. That chart is showing 2PM temps (already pushing 100 in many inland areas) with still a couple more hours of heating before the high temps are reached.

  13. NWS Philadelphia Mt Holly has already at this lead time issued an Extreme Heat Watch for Wed – Sat (exactly the four days we will be there) for heat indexes to 110. TWC has highs for those days of 100, 104, 104, and 97 with overnight lows of 80, 83, 80 and 76. Brutal.

    I assume NWS Upton and Norton will soon follow suit.

    1. I don’t think the heat will be quite as extreme here. Some days hot for sure, but not to that extreme.

      1. I think many inland areas in SNE will crack 100 on Thursday and Friday. At that point, what’s really the difference between 100 and 104? It’s putridly hot either way.

        The other issue is that this is not going to be a dry heat. With dew points in the 60s we are looking at heat indexes over 105. Again the difference between a heat index of 105 and 110 is not that discernible.

        1. I agree for inland. Boston? could be on Thursday and Friday. I think Boston is OK Wed and Saturday and although it will get warm to hot Tuesday it should only be upper 80s to 90 or 91. Beats the crap out of 100.

          NOT looking forward to Thursday and Friday.

          Down where you will be a different story. You are going to cook!!! NO WAY any BD makes it down there!

  14. JPD while that GFS op run may not be “spot on”, what it does depict is what can happen when we’re on the eastern side of a “heat dome” (still not really a fan of that term, being used like it’s something new – it’s not). Anyway, vulnerable to MCS renmants, sometimes full on complexes, even derechos, and of course, back-door fronts!

    All this makes forecasting quite complex and add in the holiday period with the added scrutiny. Fun times!

    1. Amen to that. I think Back doors and that East wind will save at least coastal areas from potential disaster. I sure hope so anyway. 🙂

  15. Gfs really wants to blast us on Friday.
    So, it looks like at least 2 really HOT days on Thursday and Friday.

  16. I think taking a 5-day weekend from Wednesday through Sunday was probably a good call on my part. 😉

    I’ll be at Hampton Beach Wed PM and Friday AM to mid PM. (Thursday plans are still TBD). Chasing is always possible if anything rides the ridge and drops into the area.

    I’ll be in Boston all day and evening on July 4th, as usual. Sunday July 5th is a bit of a recovery day when I’ll be mostly just around home enjoying the summer feel.

    My upcoming fireworks visits…
    Today: Wilmington (largest show in the history of their event).
    Tuesday: Somerville MA.
    Wednesday: Hampton Beach NH.
    Thursday: Either Lexington MA or Billerica MA.
    Friday: Gloucester MA.
    Saturday: Boston of course.
    Sunday: Milford MA.
    Monday (July 6): Groton MA.
    Wednesday (July 8): Hampton Beach NH.
    Saturday (July 11): Clinton MA.

    1. Sounds awesome. Will you also take time from woods hill. You sure have earned it and more. We can behave for five days. ……well, I’ll try my best. Everyone else will do great

      1. Blog will be updated daily as always. 🙂

        I may be checking in a little less. 😉

        1. Enjoy the fireworks!!!

          Better stay hydrated. Do have a stadium buddy????
          🙂 🙂 🙂

        3. Keep an eye on the fireworks schedules. Some towns have cancelled fireworks due to budget constraints; public safety concerns; lack of manpower; and some fire vulnerability.

          So far it’s Framingham, Rutland, Northampton, and Pittsfield. There are probably others.

          Due to drought and the possibility of igniting fires, there have been fireworks cutbacks in UT, FL, CO, and AZ. Not sure about CA. none of this is new or unusual.

          Some states have cut back due to weather situations.

  18. I hope the back door front materializes for the 4th and beyond. I still can’t help thinking about folks sitting out in that hot sun on the Esplanade. OUCH!!!

  19. Thanks TK. That sounds like a fun slate planned! Hopefully you get a good chase day or two in

    In additional to NWS IT issues, there are major delays/outages on the European side, which ECMWF is blaming on power infrastructure issues due to the ongoing heat wave. And judging by the forecast there the next 10 days, this may not be the last of that. A little bit of short term relief in the next couple days but the coming week looks *ugly* for Europe as another strong ridge builds in, potentially as hot or hotter than the recent event and long duration once again.

    It does feel like we’re seeing exactly the kind of outcomes you’d expect in a world where long term climate change (warming) is imposed onto what may become the strongest El Nino event on record. I’m not in the business of “attribution” but a little scientific common sense goes a long ways here. Of course, there are compensating cooler areas as well – snow in the Northern Rockies this morning! And I’ve got long sleeves on in SoCal today. But obviously the balance of risk is to the warm side, and extreme heat is going to be real problem globally, more than it normally is, over the next 6-12 months as this El Nino event peaks.

  20. 77/65 here. I was just doing a bit of work out in the yard and I am sweating bullets!!!! Can really feel the humidity!!!!

  21. In the better to be lucky than smart department, our vacation starts Wednesday on the Cape. Temps Wednesday there may be in mid 80s while Thursday and Friday look to still be easily over 90. Does this sound accurate? Thanks.

  26. GFS op run has been gradually trending away from the insane heat and now brings a strong back-door through on Friday July 3.

    This is the 18z op run. I won’t get to see the ensemble until later tonight as I about to head out for today’s pyro tour destination.

    There is no 12z ECMWF available at this time.

    1. Would that be with rain . Really need to get Thursday & Friday in . I need like 7-10 Friday to spread 12 yds of mulch . Thursday I need 7-12 to edge & install blue stone around a circular pool & install two new mulch beds on the left & right side of pool stairs into the pool , small jobs

    2. Thank you TK, I was just going to post something about that. If the gfs is correct, only1 really hot day and that would be Thursday. How things change around here. GO GFS!!!!!

    3. Enjoy tonight. We are sure getting rave reviews for Paul’s fireworks here last night

  27. 10th inning walk-off win to complete the 4-game sweep of the Yankees.

    Do the Sox still suck, fake fans? 😉

    No, they’re not a “great” team this year. They’ve had their issues. I suspect they will still struggle. I also suspect they’re turning things around and will do better, and end up near .500 for the season. Said it before the season started. Saying it again right now.

    #RealFan 🙂

  28. Ensemble means continue to run 5-10 degrees cooler than op runs.

    Surprised? Nope.

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