DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 ā JULY 2)
A marine layer has enabled a lot of stratus and fog to form (or move in from the ocean) overnight. Sunshine is already out in some areas to the west and northwest, and eventually the stratus and fog will break up and dissipate enough so the region overall ends up with a mixture of sun and clouds today, but we’ll see cumulus clouds popping up once again, like yesterday, as the sea breezes redevelop during the day. It is near these boundaries that these clouds can grow enough to produce a few showers, even downpours and isolated thunder. The vast majority of any region stays dry and most areas that see any rainfall don’t see it for very long. If you have outdoor plans, just keep an eye on the sky and/or the radar. Any such activity dissipates with the setting sun and we’ll have a fair and quiet night with fog patches. High pressure will be in general control of our weather as we head through the last couple days of June and into the start of July. The large scale pattern configures itself so that the center of surface high pressure sinks to the south and we end up on the eastern side of a strong upper high pressure ridge to our west. This allows for the build in of summer heat as we get into the middle of the week. The other thing we’ll have to keep watch for are showers and thunderstorms that ride over the top of the ridge from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes then drop southeastward across the Northeast. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to passing activity. Sometimes such activity is benign, and other times it can bring strong to severe storms. It being very difficult to pinpoint these until they are only a number of hours away, it will be important to follow forecast updates and keep track of radar each day from Tuesday on.
TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog to start, transitioning to a sun / cloud mix by late morning on. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest in coastal locations. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes, pushing inland somewhat.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Fog patches form. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Early fog patches, otherwise sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 82-89. Dewpoint 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 86-93. Dew point 60+ Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 67-74. Dewpoint 65+. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 90-97 except 80s some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)
Same general upper pattern that establishes during the next several days remains in place for this period. Upper high pressure does nudge eastward a little but also amplifies with its axis remaining to our west. July 3 features heat and humidity with a slight chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Probable back-door cold front provides relief from the hotter weather over the July 4-5 weekend but still can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm in otherwise mostly fair weather. A little uncertain for July 6-7 whether the maritime air holds or the hotter weather from the west makes a comeback. Leaning toward the former. Still can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm either of those days.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)
Most believable trend is for high pressure ridging to retrograde westward and a little more westerly air flow aloft takes over here with a return to the summer version of an up-and-down temperature pattern with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as disturbances / fronts pass by the region. Additional detail in time, as usual.
Good morning and thank you TK
74 up from 64
Ocean: 63
Wordle: 4
Coastal areas may be spared the worst of the heat for some of the days, but inland looks to have a prolonged heat wave. Logan may not even reach heat wave status due to possible sea breezes. We shall see. If they do, then likely 3 days and no more while inland could be 4-6 day heat wave. We shall see how it plays out.
AND 100 is in play Thursday and Friday. Will we reach b it? We shall see. I think at least some areas do. Either way, plenty HOT!!
Interestingly (as SAK pointed out to me earlier), the operational models of both the GFS & ECMWF run 5 to 10 degrees hotter than the ensemble mean for all 3 days Wednesday through Friday. It gets ignored about as much as the ensemble snowfall forecasts do during the winter. š
5-10 higher? Are the ensemble numbers always correct?
I am going by previous times of heat. The Euro has been pretty awfully close. If it is high, it’s only been by a degree or 2 and not 5-10.
I still say 100 is in play. Am I full of shit? could be as often I am.
We shall see. š
Believe me I do NOT want the heat. NOT AT ALL!!!!!
But it its going to be 97, then why not a 100 and be done with it. Not much difference there.
In any case will be fun to monitor….
Not “always” but they are often better this far out.
š
BTW, I did just take a look at the EURO ensemble 2m temperatures and they were a solid 5 degrees or so LOWER than the operational run. So, I do see what you mean. I wonder if some of the ensemble members had more of a sea breeze knocking back the average?
I dunno. Just because the ensemble mean says it will be 96, does not mean it will be 96. It could still end up the operational 100 or 101. I will be watching this as we move forward. Most interesting.
Awesome 4. I have two letters only both in correct place after 5 guesses and absolutely no idea what word Is
I was totally CLUELESS after 3 guesses where I ended up
with 2 letters in position. I set it down for awhile and then I came back to it and started substituting letters. Then all of a sudden out of the blue it came into my head and I got the word on guess 4. It is a common word and you will hit yourself on your head when you see what it is. š š š
Good luck.
Thanks. Iām definitely taking my time with this last guess
Thank you, Today marks my longest streak now at 45 days.
My previous longest was 36 days.
Thanks TK.
Thank you, TK.
69/66 up from 62
Thanks Tk
Thanks, TK!
Murky morning š
Thanks TK
0Z Euro Ensemble for 2Pm Thursday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfct-mean-imp&rh=2026062800&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
0Z Operational for 2PM Thursday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-mean-imp&rh=2026062800&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
You can readily see the difference TK was discussing above.
71/66 right now.
Wordle in 4.
Welcome to the 4 car. So far we are co-engineers. Will it say that way? time will tell.
Jumping aboard as well!
Welcome! Your turn to drive. š
TK: Curious
Last evening Jeff Harrington on Ch10 had 100 for Thursday.
So, he was clearly going by the operational runs.
Is this common for a professional on air Met? Wouldn’t it have been more prudent to go with the ensembles and paint a 96 or 97 for Thursday instead of the 100?
There seems to be some inconsistencies across the on air profession. AND it can be very misleading to the public.