DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)
Your weekend weather will be generally pleasant overall with manageable humidity and a lack of heat. Surface high pressure and a very weak upper trough provide generally fair weather. The weak trough aloft does provide the opportunity for a pop up shower (remote thunderstorm chance) each afternoon, but coverage would be very low and any areas that did see activity would not be wet for very long. A weak wave of low pressure does pass south of the region bringing some additional cloudiness mainly south of I-90 and perhaps touch of light rainfall at midday to the South Coast, while the eastern coastal areas see stratus and fog nearby due to more abundant low level moisture and a light onshore air flow. Surface high pressure hangs on and slips to the south and east Monday through Wednesday next week, with a warming trend. We may be looking at some 90-degree readings by Wednesday, but not before that. The upper pattern developing features a ridge of high pressure in the Plains to Midwest during this period, with our region in a northwesterly air flow on the eastern side of the ridge. That pattern always prompts us to keep an eye out for “over the top” energy which can bring shower and thunderstorm chances, usually in passing. Sometimes these can become more organized and have a greater impact. This will be something we’ll have to monitor by Tuesday and Wednesday.
TODAY: Low clouds and fog in and out along eastern coastal areas. A blanket of clouds limting sun south of I-90 through early afternoon with a touch of light rain possible midday near the South Coast. Otherwise, a sun / cloud mix with a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers mainly over inland areas. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s morning, gradually lowering during the day. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches late night favoring lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny start except early morning patchy fog in lower elevations, then a sun / cloud mix. Slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point below 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 86-93. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)
General pattern features a northwesterly flow aloft, which is a seasonably warm pattern here with higher heat held off to our west but some of it can sneak in here especially early in the period. This pattern is mostly dry, but also features the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to ride over the top of the ridge to our west and southeastward across New England. Sometimes these can be remnants, other times stronger and more organized.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)
Some guidance shows the presence of low pressure to the south increasing cloud cover and rain chances, but I’m reluctant to bite on this potential, with my outlook remaining generally the same at this time – a continuation of the pattern expected during the previous period.
Good morning and thank you TK
76 up from 65
Ocean: 62
WORDLE: 4
Pete had 97 for one day next week. I say NO to that. He even whispered that some guidance had 100.
I hope he was too high with that number!!
Thank you TK.
Over / Under today: 79F
Thanks TK.
Thanks! Wordle 5
Nice 5
I Sincerely hope these numbers are overcooked from the EURO!!!
Wednesday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026062700&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thursday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026062700&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
For next Friday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026062700&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
That is some HOT stuff. Over cooked? Let’s hope so!!!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
Logan has a healthy sea breeze ALREADY today. Wow!!!
Only 68 there
I’m enjoying the wonderful weather this morning!
Wordle in 4 today.
Welcome to the 4 car!!
Looks like on the visible satellite that a lot of the ice on Hudson Bay is finally melting.
Thanks TK.
Cloudy and 74 here in Westhampton, NJ (east of Philadelphia) with some light showers in the area. So far no impacts to the softball game schedule this afternoon.
We are back down to this general area (north of Philadelphia) next Thurs-Sat for another tournament. It would be a disaster if those temps the Euro are showing materialize Mid 100’s?!? I’m sure it is overcooked but even if it is overcooked by 10 degrees, that is still brutal.
Thank you, TK. Perfect parade day as you predicted. Just drove around sutton center for 40ish minutes. No parade parking spaces to be found. Will be sad not to see but and beyond thrilled that it’s so well attended.
75/65. Low of 62.
Yay on your 4s JPD and SClarke. Great 5 Thammer. Please may I join you again
Wordle 5
Nice 5.
Feeling the sea breezes here. My over / under for today is 79F and I am already doubting it. Not sure I’ll reach that. Currently, 68F.
72/62 here with that East wind that I can feel in the house.
Refreshing,even with the 62 dp. Can smell the ocean a bit.
Only 64 at Logan
Thanks, TK.
71/62
Thanks TK! Now on the New London ferry heading to Orient Point leaving the sunshine and heading into the fog. Meeting my siblings in Freeport for a two mile boat ride out into the Atlantic to spread our parents ashes into the ocean – today is 20 year anniversary of mom’s passing and with our dad passing in September it’s time. Company fully licensed to charter for this specific experience. Then off to JFK airport to pick up my daughter who will be landing after a 15 hour flight from Taiwan – then back home to the South Coast. Quite a day so glad weather is cooperating.
Happy the weather is cooperating for your special day.
How special. I know you’ll enjoy every minute
2nd JpDave and Vicki’s thoughts.
Best of luck
Thanks TK
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 6
Yes, I am home. 🙂
Best news, amigo! 🙂
Great to hear!
Welcome home!! How are you feeling?
Good you got the word.
Awesome news. So happy for you that you are home, Tom.
Glad you are home Tom
Welcome back tom , so glad you are back & hear if you need anything at all . Had a job going in Marshfield this morning .
Vicki .. looking great. There is a 1 in 10 shot at an isolated shower.
I continue to be unsure whether I finish a priority project in time to make it there (around a one hour and ten minute trek).
My back up plan is to go to Braintree, which I can reach in just over 20 minutes.
If I can’t make Sutton and where Paul is lead pyrotechnician, I’ll have him get some video!
Awesome. Thank you so much. Paul has a shell for mac in the finale. He said he’d take a pic if I can’t get there.
I am still going to try to make it there. All comes down to timing for me. 🙂
I actually have a 3rd option (reserved for the latest finishing time and the least amount of time I have to get anywhere). Middleton MA.
Good luck.
Thanks TK.
Obviously a ton of day-to-day details are TBD, but the emergency management community is going to be doing a lot of hand-wringing over the forecast surrounding July 4th in the I-95 corridor from Boston to DC. Both extreme heat and severe weather outcomes appear very much on the table. The heat potential in the mid-Atlantic late this week is particularly concerning. Will be awhile before we can have better confidence on the storm threat(s).
As I mentioned above, we are going to be just north of Philly next Thursday to Saturday for a softball tournament. Very concerned for the heat. The NWS point and click has high temps of 102F and heat indexes 105-110. Id much rather be dealing with the light rain and low 70s I am standing in right now in southern NJ.
By the way, we are very close to your old stomping grounds in Mt Holly. Went to a brewery and dinner there last night and was surprised to see that it had a nice little walkable downtown area.
Ah super cool! Just saw your post above! Village Idiot? Spellbound? It really is a cute little town. I lived in Mount Laurel right next door.
And yeah, there is brutal heat potential in that stretch. In fact I’d say it’s becoming harder to see there *not* being brutal heat during that stretch.
Yes! Actually went to both breweries…stratosphere first and then Village Idiot. A lot of locals singing some very bad karaoke at both but it was entertaining,
Couldn’t be me… lol. Small world!
The latest NWS forecast (which keep in mind is just the NBM) has 104 in Center City Philadelphia both Thursday and Friday. That would be a deadly heat event if it verifies. I never saw numbers like that in the time I was there.
And no relief at night…the overnight low forecast is 82! I hope the tournament directors make some adjustments like shortening the games and shifting them to as early in the day as possible. I can’t imagine standing out there in their long black softball pants. It’s downright dangerous.
There is a World Cup Round of 16 match in Philadelphia at 5 pm on Indpendence Day. Yikes!
A cell just popped up over us in the last 15 minutes. Awfully dark.
Nothing in the way of rain or thunder just yet.
The heat shown on the 12Z Euro and GFS is eye popping!
I am very concerned!!! We have the ACs to get through it, PROVIDED we do NOT lose power!!!!!!
We don’t need the stinken heat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ICON, GDPS and UKMET ALL have around 100 or more.
ALL of them.
NWS Heat Risk Map from today through next Friday
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/
YIKES!!!
Thank you.
Sox 4
Yankees 1
One more tomorrow for the 4 game sweep.
It’s a bizarre reversal of roles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR2AXVkIIgU
Today was game #81. Halfway through our miserable season. Can’t wait until Patriots training camp on August 25th.
Correction: July 25th!!! 😉
I already feel bad for folks out on the Esplanade next Saturday waiting for the Concert to begin in that intense heat. They will need shelter (tents) and LOTS of water!
With security the way it is nowadays, I wonder if those above items will be allowed in? Hope so.
The items allowed in will be the usual. There’s a list published annually. Tents have always been allowed. They come down at 7 p.m. Why would they stop people from drinking water? I’ve been at this event every year since 1990. It’s very, very well organized. I currently expect highs in the 80s that day with a light wind off the ocean.
I second what you’re saying.
The Esplanade concert and fireworks are incredibly well-organized in every way. Been either going to it in the 70s, 80s, and 90s when I was in the country, or vicariously enjoying it since the 2000s from my apartment located a few hundred yards away.
I like your forecast! 😀 May it be.
What do you think about Thursday evening out there?
I think it will be a classic warm & humid summer night. It remains to be seen if any convective activity will be in the mix.
Thanks!
Thanks, TK.
18z gfs has 850 mb temps in Boston area from 22 to 24 C supporting surface temps 99 to about 103. Even if over cooked. The potential is there for a 4 day heat wave. Thank you NO!!!!!
73 here and 63 at logan!! Wow!!!!
Thanks Tk . Couple big jobs going end of the week & hoping the weather cooperates.
TK – Just curious. Are coolers allowed?
For a number of years I worked in the event security industry and coolers were NEVER allowed under ANY circumstances.
I hope those at the Esplanade stay safe and healthy next weekend! 🙂
Whatever. I plan to watch the concert and fireworks inside my AC’d apartment. 🙂
Also, as for tents, I could have sworn that tents were not allowed during some years.
TK – With all that upcoming intense heat, will there be severe storms next week/weekend?
WxWatcher said severe weather out comes are on the table.
As WxW (and I) stated, there will be opportunities. But opportunities are not guarantees. And often when severe weather does occur, it’s not “everywhere”. In fact, it’s virtually never “everywhere”.
We’ll probably be talking about some instances of severe weather between June 30 and July 5. But does that mean everybody is going to see severe thunderstorms for 6 straight days? Nope. Not at all.
Well said Mr. TK.
65/63. Lovely night to sit out and watch a phenomenal fireworks display
I just got video sent to me by the lead pyrotechnician from beside the launch mortars during the finale. 🙂
Ohhhh can’t wait to see.
New post…