Wednesday July 1 2026 Forecast (7:50AM)

124 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

This 5-day forecast period takes us through the holiday weekend as Independence Day is Saturday. July starts off with a spell of hot weather as an upper ridge builds in, though its center remains to our west, delivering heat from the Midwest and Great Lakes, while high pressure at the surface builds to our south, sending in higher humidity behind yesterday’s disturbance and warm frontal passage (which was responsible for some heavy downpours in parts of the region). Being on the eastern side of the “ring of fire” – the zone where thunderstorms can travel around the periphery of the high pressure ridge, we’ll have to watch for those, aided of course by the heat and humidity. Our chances are highest today through early Thursday morning, before they drop off during the day Thursday and through much of Friday when the ridge reaches its most eastward extent. As the ridge backs to the west a little and allows a cold front to drop through the region Saturday, we’ll again face a higher thunderstorm possibility. While this pattern supports high heat and humidity in general over this period of time, there are also modifying factors. They include: Local sea breezes, debris cloudiness from thunderstorm clusters, actual storms with heavy rain, and post-storm cooled air. These can all at least temporarily slow down or take the edge of the heat. It’s also not going to be across the board oppressive humidity the entire time for most areas either. We will see some dew points break the 70-degree mark, but many areas may stay in the 60s for dew points for many hours, and also a westerly wind can occur and create a down-slope effect which can drive down points even lower, especially in the coastal plain. Sometimes when this happens, however, the air temperature can end up higher, but the breeze and lower dew point can compensate for this. Additionally, you may have heard talk of “low temps in the 80s”. That will not be happening either. The closest we will come to that a night or two is a low temperature closer to 80 than to 70 in some of the urban centers, due to the “heat island” effect, most certainly not where the extreme majority of people are trying to sleep. So it’s very important to keep all of this stuff in its proper perspective, which I will for you. So, despite headlines you may have seen, this will not be “the hottest (or the worst) in years”. It will be a hot spell in July, the likes of which we’ve seen many times. Now that we have that cleared up, how about the rest of the outlook heading through the weekend? Well, Saturday is key obviously, since it’s Independence Day, and currently I am leaning toward an earlier-in-the-day frontal passage over a later one. A later one would mean hotter weather and a longer / later chance for showers and t-storms, while earlier could easily cap the temperature rise but also end the shower and storm threat much sooner. Additionally, you may have heard some talk about a front that doesn’t really make it through the region. I also disagree with that idea and believe the front moves through efficiently enough so that we see drier and “cooler” (80s) on Sunday with fair weather, courtesy of high pressure to our north.

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning-midday with a shower or thunderstorm possible. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96. Dew point 65+ Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 67-74. Dewpoint 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Early clouds, then lots of sun. Only a remote chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Highs 93-100 except 85-92 South Coast. Dew point 65+ but may drop to 55-62 in the coastal plain. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+ but may start out below that in some areas. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Plenty of sun. A few clouds. A remote chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 92-99 except 84-91 Cape Cod. Dew most mostly 65+ but can fall again in coastal plain. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially morning-midday. Highs 85-92. Dew point 65+ then lowering. Wind SW shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near any storms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point falls below 60 late. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Greatest chance of unsettled weather July 7-8 and again July 10. Overall pattern is less hot with high pressure to our north and a frontal boundary to our south. Details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal with the return of some hotter weather possible.

124 thoughts on “Wednesday July 1 2026 Forecast (7:50AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    75 up from low of 72. Dp 65

    Ocean: 64

    Wordle: 4

    TK, I see you now have 100 in play for tomorrow.

    Pete had 96 for today, 101 for tomorrow and 102 for Friday.

    NWS has 96 for today, 100 for tomorrow and 99 for Friday.
    Pretty much the top of TK’s range.

    So what will it be?

    I suspect here, nestled in the trees, we don’t make a 100.

    Last year when Logan made 102, we made an even 100 here.

    The watch is on…..

    Btw re: storms yesterday
    We just missed here. We got a touch of light rain, that just barely dampened the pavements. No puddle, nothing to show for it. JUST missed us to the North.

    I see that Logan picked up 0.16 inch. (Based on echoes, it sure looked like they got more than that)

    2. Their rain gauge (and thermometer) are f’ed. Especially the former. There isn’t a colleague of mine I chat with regularly who doesn’t agree. Trust me, we’re not wrong.

  3. Looks like relief will come next Monday and Tuesday when according to the NWS Heat risk map SNE is in the minor category.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: fail 🙂

    Word never came to mind with what I had. That’s ok. Onto tomorrow.

  5. So example #1 of things impacting the weather for the day: A large blanket of convective debris cloud over central and eastern MA and southern NH.

    While the media is already making it sound like it’s brutal this morning, the temp is in the mid 70s and dew point in the mid 60s as of 8 a.m. … Not brutal. Not even close. Yes it’ll change later. But let’s once again keep it in PROPER PERSPECTIVE. And I will continue to be the bastard from hell the media will hate because I will keep calling this out – over, and over.
    🙂

    I caught 5 seconds of WBZ radio this morning, just enough to hear them say how nasty it was outside “right now”. This was at 6:45 a.m. GOOD GRIEF. Had it been me on the air, I’d been telling the listeners that it was actually pretty reasonably comfortable for July 1st, but how they needed to prepare for it to be hotter and humid later in the day. Easy!

  6. Thanks Tk . I love hot summers , bring it on . Old salty I hope you guys stay safe .

    1. We’re trying. Yesterday wasn’t too bad all things considered.
      Today will be a better test.

      We’re able to cool the bedroom, dining room, kitchen, living room and bathroom with 3 ACs, total btus: 22,400 AS long as we don’t lose power, we will survive.

      We’re in the group of folks who can be severely affected by this type of weather as we are both 78.

      1. Ditto. And it is always a surprise. While I’ve always enjoyed cold more than hot perhaps due to years skiing, heat and humidity never bothered me

      2. I know you are . Even though I like it I have always felt bad for folks like yourself who can have serious issues with heat & that’s why I always like to check on you here . Be safe my friend & take care of your wife .

    1. Nice 4. Welcome to the 4 car. We’ll drive for now, but I have a feeling we’ll see a 3 or perhaps even a 2 today. 🙂

          1. Wonder how much affect losing the sunshine this morning will have on the high temperature?

  12. I’ll guess a high of 92 here today

    The dewpoint and I are not on speaking terms, so I won’t guess what it might be

    1. I’d say you go higher than 92. More like 94 or 95. We shall see.

      I’ll go 95 here.

  15. Lurker since the WBZ days, but never commented. Regarding the rain, we received 1.24″ according to my gauge in Swampscott. Our temperatures and rain usually mirror Logan.

    As for Wordle – got it in 5, had the wrong first letter on 4th try.

    1. Welcome Bill!!!
      Always nice to see new bloggers join and you jumped right in with Wordle!!! excellent!!!

      Look forward to your posts in the future.

  16. 80 here now with dp 69

    I see that dp is 70 at Norwood already!!!

    I officially call YUCK!!!!!!!

  19. Just moved to the air conditioned kitchen with my lap top. Now I can’t feel the humidity. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  23. Thanks, TK!

    83/68

    85 yesterday.

    JPD, wishing you and Mrs. OS the best throughout the next couple of days! Hang in there!

    1. Thanks Capt. Yesterday was OK. Worse today, so we’ll see how it goes. ACs are cranking. Can’t get by without those.

      Here’s hoping the power stays on.

  24. We just put some A/C units in the Elevator machine roooms to keep them cool during this stretch .

  25. Now it is 84 with dp 71

    Pretty slow tempersture rise. Makes me wonder if we ever
    make the mid 90s today. No matter, the DP is outrageous!!!!!

  27. I guess we’re on the rise.

    Currently 86 with a DISGUTING DEW POINT = 72 !!!!!!

  29. Bill in Swampscott, your comment has been approved and you should be able to continue to comment without going into moderation so long as you use the same email and username. You can change it any time, but it will go into moderation and I’ll have to re-approve. WordPress thing. 🙂

    Welcome to the blog comments section!

  30. 86/72 here in JP. Heat index 92.

    86 at Noon. Doesn’t bode well for high temps in the mid 90s.
    Could we still get there? sure, but will we? Usually we would be
    90 by now if it were going to go that high.

    I suspect we’ll be 90 by 10AM tomorrow. We shall see.

  34. General model trends today are for fewer t-storms over the next few days which includes July 4.

    Also trending a little faster with frontal passage on Saturday – though that’s not as easy to pick out. Also helps if you know which piece of guidance has the best simulation at this point. 🙂

    This is nothing that prompts me to change my forecast. It allows me to leave it unchanged after reviewing all the 12z info!

    I am on my way to Hampton Beach NH for end-of-afternoon until late evening. A little beach time, arcade time, dinner, fireworks, and ice cream. 🙂

  36. Logan has gone to a sea breeze!!!! THere’s a big surprise!!!!

    Temp down to 90 and likely to fall more. Will there be a wind shift so they can jump to 95??? We shall see.

    1. You may recall that I mentioned local sea breeze potential at some shorelines.

      They’ll need that shift back if I’m going to hit my Logan forecast if 95 today.

      I’m 4 degrees off so far.

      Also, most guidance no longer forecasts any 100+ readings, but media, since they already “went for it”, elected to keep it, for the most part.

      Going to stick with what I’ve said about this since the beginning.

      Most definitely not the “hottest in years”. Remember they also said that about a hot stretch last year? And the year before? And oh, I think the year before too. People are catching on to the antics. Meanwhile, I’ll continue to do what I’ve always done. Forecast the weather honestly and avoid the freaking HYPE bullcrap.

  38. 95/72. Here.
    It made it. Wasn’t sure it was going to. That hot sun and warming air mass did it.

    1. Nws has us at 95 also. Kestrel had 91.7.

      BUT I had to use myself to block the sun. So maybe not as accurate as it could be.

      I’ll say one thing ….its hot as …well you know the rest

    1. he he he so, how high did it get? I presume you had the sea breeze as well, unless you are back from the coast a way.

  43. Fitchburge and Westfield made 97 today. I see a bunch of 99s in Northern NJ and Eastern PA and a 102 in Maryland.
    What does this say about tomorrow’s temperatures here???

    I honestly think 100 is still in play. We’ll see tomorrow.

      1. You mean a West wind tomorrow. Plenty hot to the West as well. (did not see any 100 degree readings, many mid-upper 90s) West wind equals down slopping which can add to the heat, although likely to reduce the stinken DP which will be nice. I still say 100 is in play (Unless there is so much debri cloudiness that lasts most of the day) We shall see.

  44. I’ve been at Hampton Beach since about 4:30 p.m. and the entire time so far it’s been in the low 80s with a steady SSE ocean breeze at about 10 MPH.

    1. That’s nice. We were up to 96 so some parts of Boston made your prediction. Logan would have for sure, if not for the sea breeze.

  45. Drove straight through that MCS in Upstate NY yesterday that was barreling southeast as it crossed the NYS Thruway. It was pretty wild with blinding rain, high winds and cloud to ground lightning. Passed one section right after that had debris and numerous branches strewn about on the interstate. Many cars were pulled over.

    Today we arrived in Eastern PA and toured Villanova with my daughter. Beautiful campus but it was a brutal one hour walk with a heat index at the time of 106. NWS point and click for Philly has a high of 105 tomorrow (actual air temp). Softball games are scheduled for 930 and 1230. Not a good situation.

    1. Correction – Philly hit 97 today while the dewpoint was 75 for a heat index 110. That’s probably a tie for the most oppressive heat I have ever experienced. Seems tomorrow it’s several degrees hotter but the dewpoint is lower so heat index will likely be about the same.

      Looks like BDL topped out at 95 with a dewpoint of 75 and heat index of 106.

      1. We made 96 here with dp 72, heat index 105
        Later in the day it was 93 with dp 75, heat index 105

    2. Ugh! brutal. Those games should be cancelled. Hope the hell no one falls ill.

    1. problem is in this kind of set up, they can stay together right to the coast. Likely not close to severe, but still thunder and lightning and down pours. We shall see. May have to close the windows tonight. Was able to keep them open last night.

    1. Under / Over for tomorrow will be difficult to figure. Not sure I’ll be getting a sea breezes

    1. Well that worked.

      I went outside to get something that was just delivered As someone who always enjoyed all types of weather, i have only one word for tonight

      Putrid

      Too bad it’s not five letters I would recommend it for a Wordle word tomorrow

  54. Nice Lighting show, and gentle thunder and 0.01”.

    Warning expired

    But fun to watch

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