7:23AM
DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)
Mid July. Here we are. No heatwaves yet. But we didn’t expect that the chance of heatwaves (3 or more days of 90 degree or higher high temperatures) would be supported in this weather pattern. But we will see some hot weather in the pattern. Do we finally squeak out a heatwave in the next several days in any location? We’ll see. But odds are against it during this 5-day period. High altitude smoke remains in the sky from Canadian fires, and we can see that in and out of the region for several days to come as the upper winds shift around. Down here in the part of the atmosphere that impacts us more directly, we will feel an increase in humidity today, especially as a boundary passes the region this afternoon. Along this boundary, a shower or thunderstorm may pop up, with the greatest risk in north central to northeastern MA, and southern NH. Areas to the south will probably see nothing. Tonight, a trough will cross the region from west to east and kick off one or 2 line-clusters of showers/thunderstorms. We’ll have to watch these for torrential downpours, and there is a risk that one or 2 of the storms could produce some gusty winds. A cold front will cross the region on Friday and bring another risk of a passing shower/storm 1 or 2 times during the day, but the threat should be over by or before evening as drier and more stable air arrives from the west. This will set up a nice Saturday with high pressure in control. This high will sink to the south a little Sunday as a low pressure area crosses southeastern Canada and sends a trough through the region, but most of the shower and thunderstorm activity with this will be in northern New England, with only a slight risk of one making it down into parts of southern New England, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans for Sunday based on that minimal threat. A warm front approaches later Monday and may bring some cloudiness back but otherwise so far that looks like a nice day overall.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower/thunderstorm north central and northeastern MA and southern NH mainly between 1PM and 4PM. Increasingly humid. Highs 86-91, except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms probable after 9PM. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple passing showers/thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 80-87, coolest South Coast. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lowering humidity. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of a passing shower/thunderstorm favoring northern MA and southern NH. Highs 83-90, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 62-69. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind light variable.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)
General west to east flow with mean high pressure ridge position in the Midwest to upper Plains. Shower and thunderstorm threats will depend on timing of disturbances. There will be a couple during the period. Something to watch for is whether or not any moisture associated with a tropical system currently in the Gulf of Mexico gets involved in our shower/thunderstorm threat around the middle of this period. Temperatures will average a little above normal overall. A brief spike of higher heat is possible.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)
Overall pattern similar, though ridge center may tend to be further west (Plains) versus east (Midwest). Will have to watch for shower and thunderstorm threats based on passing disturbances but overall much of the time will be rain-free.