DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

One more “feel of summer” day today with an increasing south to southwest wind ahead of an approaching cold front, which will deliver showers late tonight into Wednesday as we transition to a cooler air mass at midweek. Dry weather returns from west to east as the front moves offshore later Wednesday, though some areas south of Boston may not see clearing until after the sun goes down. Dry weather dominates Thursday through Saturday. This period of time starts breezy and cool with high pressure centered to the west, then goes tranquil but still cool Friday as the high builds overhead, then we see a temperature moderation Saturday as the high slides offshore and we get its return flow from the southwest.

TODAY: Fog and stratus areas limit sun in some areas early to mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with most sun late morning to mid afternoon and less sun from west to east later in the day. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely overnight from west to east. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Showers end midday from west to east with a clearing trend late-day from the west. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Radiaton fog patches. Patchy frost low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

The big question to be answered is how does the weather turn out for the balance of the long weekend (October 12-13)? Guidance is inconsistent on how to handle low pressure down the coast to the south. Run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistency is at maximum rendering the guidance untrustworthy. Given the pattern overall and recent guidance biases, in general, my tendency is still to lean toward the drier scenario with the low staying to the south. There’s at least some chance that it drifts far enough north to spread more clouds into the region Sunday and a chance of some rainfall, especially in southern areas, later Sunday or Monday, but this seems at the moment to be the most extreme foul weather scenario potential, which isn’t the best news since we are in need of rain to slow down expanding dry conditions. Either scenario is followed by mainly dry and slightly cooler weather heading into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Overall pattern still looks dry with zonal flow and a couple quick shower threats from passing fronts.Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure continues to deliver warm and dry weather to our region today, and this continues Tuesday too, but with an increase in both wind and cloud cover Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will cross the region at moderate speed Tuesday night through midday Wednesday with showers. This will be followed by cooler, drier weather from the end of Wednesday through Friday as another large high pressure area from Canada builds in our direction.

TODAY: Early fog patches dissipate with sunshine dominating. Highs 70-77 South Coast / Cape Cod, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except patchy ground fog forming. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start / cloudy finish. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely overnight from west to east. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Showers end midday from west to east with a clearing trend late-day from the west. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

There remains some uncertainty about the forecast for the long weekend (October 11-13). While it starts dry with high pressure in control, we have to watch low pressure to the south to see how far north it gets. Does it spread rain in or just clouds for a time? Remains to be seen. If rain does make its way far enough north, either or both October 12 & 13 are in play. Fair, cooler weather is expected toward the middle of next week. This entire forecast period will be fine-tuned as we go through this coming week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Overall pattern still looks dry with zonal flow and a couple quick shower threats from passing fronts.Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

No significant changes on this Sunday update from what’s been here the last couple of days. High pressure parks itself to our south the next few days with a continuation of the current warm spell, with fair weather. This morning is a little cool as a clear sky and light wind allowed for good radiational cooling, but we’ll warm up decently today, and then a lesser version of cooling takes place tonight and especially tomorrow night as we start to establish a more prominent southwesterly wind across the region. This also drives temps back up each day, with Monday probably being the warmest day for the region overall. An approaching trough sends more clouds into the region later Tuesday, and a cold front and associated band of showers will cross the region some time during the first 12 hours of Wednesday – timing to be refined further as the next few days go by. This will introduce a much cooler air mass later Wednesday and Thursday with the return of dry weather.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83 though a little cooler along the coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely overnight. Chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning. A sun/cloud mix in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Leaning toward a moisture-starved front going by sometime late next week (~October 11) with just some clouds, but the shower threat staying to the north. Also watching a low pressure area to our south, but expecting it to stay far enough south to keep rain away, but maybe toss some clouds into the region mid period. Otherwise, looking generally dry with a bit of temperature variability but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Previous hints of more trough / unsettled weather in this part of the country are less prominent on medium range guidance, so leaning toward a continued dry pattern and monitoring trends going forward. Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Our weather continues to be controlled by a large high pressure area which will provide fair weather and a warming trend for the next few days. As the high center settles off to the south and east, a trough will eventually approach from the west, and the first thing you’ll notice from this is a more prominent wind by Tuesday. Eventually, a cold front will push a band (or two) of showers through the region at some point between Tuesday night and midday Wednesday – based on current expecting timing. A cooler air mass arrives behind this, but up until then, other than cool early mornings today and Sunday, and some cooler afternoon sea breeze in coastal areas this weekend, the next several days will recall the days of summer.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82 though a little cooler along the coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely overnight. Chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning. A sun/cloud mix in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

High pressure brings fair weather early in the period and again later on, after a brief interruption from a frontal passage with a chance of a shower sometime October 11. Temperatures warm up pre-front, then cool down behind it.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Overall dry pattern expected, but a few hints showing up in guidance of a more prominent trough trying to move into the region later in the period that could bring a shower threat and cooler weather. This is not a high confidence outlook and I’ll monitor trends.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High pressure continues its dominance on our weather through early next week. We have a chilly morning ongoing as I write this, due to the high center being right over the region and a night of radiational cooling having taken place. But a nice temperature recovery takes place during the day today. Temperatures will then reside in above to much above normal territory as high pressure parks itself south of our region over the weekend and early next week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable under 10 MPH then SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82 though a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A cold front brings a good chance of showers for a portion of September 8 – timing to be fine-tune. Another high pressure moves in with another dry weather stretch for the balance of this period, temperatures cooling at first then recovering to milder again.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Two brief shower threats (~October 13 & 17), otherwise a mainly dry and variable temperature pattern, but no extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

High pressure dominates our weather through the next 5 days with dry conditions. The changes will come in the temperature department. Today, we’re still cool with an active breeze for a while between high pressure still to our north and far-offshore tropical activity. Tonight, the high center crests overhead, setting up strong radiational cooling. The daily temperature trend is up as the high pressure area settles to our south Friday through Monday, but even as temperatures go above normal, we’ll fall shy of any record highs in the region. The fair weather is great for outdoor activities, but is not-so-great for keeping drought at bay. Look for an expansion of drought conditions across the region once again, as well as increased fire danger in the days ahead.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable under 10 MPH then SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82 though a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Warm weather continues October 7, but watching for a frontal system from the west to bring a round of showers sometime between late that day into October 8, followed by the return to fair weather but with cooler conditions mid to late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

A zonal flow (generally west to east) pattern with some up and down temps and only a brief shower threat (~October 13). Early-period warm-up, then cooling back to seasonable levels.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

Welcome to October 2025! We’ll start the month off with a cool interlude, between some warm end-of-September days and another upcoming warm-up. First, we have a northeasterly air flow of cool Canadian air between a large high pressure area to our north and offshore tropical activity – where Hurricane Imelda is gaining strength and organization southwest of Bermuda while Hurricane Humberto, northwest of Bermuda, weakens rapidly and is set to merge with an upper trough before its remains become absorbed by Imelda, which will batter Bermuda later tonight through tonight, before quickly moving on and losing tropical characteristics heading into the North Atlantic waters. The only impact of note for our area, besides the gusty coastal breeze, will be some large ocean swells and rough surf along the coast during the next couple days, which can lead to some splash-over and minor flooding during high tide times. We are not at a time of astronomically high tides so this will lessen the impact somewhat. Weather-wise, we keep a dry spell going on through the coming weekend, with a significant warm-up in the cards as high pressure first drifts over our region then sinks to the south, giving us a toasty return flow, making the first weekend of October feel a tad bit more like late summer instead.

TODAY: Ocean-effect clouds MA South Shore to South Coast, dissipating later. Otherwise sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH eastern coastal areas including higher gusts, especially MA South Shore to Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable under 10 MPH then SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure parked to the south continues the fair, warm weather early next week until a cold front from the west brings a chance of showers sometime during the second half of October 7 through the first half of October 8 – based on current expected timing. This will be followed by a return to dry weather but with cooler air for the balance of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Expectation continues to be for a zonal flow (generally west to east) pattern with some up and down temps and only a brief shower threat (~October 13). The warm-up would occur before shower threat, then a cool-down after.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

This last day of September starts with filtered sun as the high cloud shield extending far north of TS Imelda and an associated moisture plume moves out, and the sun brightens as the day goes on. It will be a mild day with a weak high pressure area just to our south, but later in the day you’ll notice a wind shift to the north and northeast, and the breeze increasing by evening. This will be due to a fairly strong cold front that goes by otherwise unnoticeable – very few clouds and no rainfall whatsoever. At midweek we’ll be breezy and much cooler from a large, stronger Canadian high pressure area to our north and the tropical activity far to our southeast and south (Humberto and Imelda). Later this week the high center will build right over our region then sink to the south with continued dry weather and a warm up to start the weekend.

TODAY: Filtered sun becomes brighter with time as high clouds gradually decrease, otherwise just a few passing fair-weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH MA South Shore through Cape Cod including higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

High pressure to the south provides fair weather and above normal temperatures into early week. Watch for a cold front with a shower threat later October 7 to early October 8 followed by fair and cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Zonal flow pattern. Warm-up early period, shower threat with next front mid period, cool-down late period.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

High pressure provides fair and mild weather today with plenty of sun that may become filtered by a shield of high clouds fanning up from the south. Those clouds are a product of a plume of moisture connected to Tropical Storm Imelda in the Bahamas. “Big brother” Humberto, a strong hurricane set to curve northwest to northeast in the western Atlantic, west of Bermuda, over the next couple of days. Imelda’s track will feature a slow northward movement and a hard right turn, following Humberto out to sea other than threatening Bermuda while passing by there as a hurricane later this week. Back at home, our mild and fair weather continues Tuesday, but a strong cold front slides through the region from north to south. This moisture-starved front will produce nothing but some clouds (no rain) and a wind shift to north and northeast. A larger high pressure area in eastern Canada will then deliver a cool airmass to our region for midweek, along with more wind between it and the offshore tropical systems. By the end of the week the high to the north will build closer and the wind will ease as fair weather continues here.

TODAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds from south to north. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

High pressure sinks to the south providing dry weather and allowing a warm-up this weekend (October 4-5) as well as into the start of next week before a cold front swiftly moves through with maybe a brief shower threat about October 7, followed by a shot of cooler air from Canada with another high building in.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Zonal (west to east) general flow pattern expected. Overall dry regime continues. Cool at first, warming up, a frontal system may bring a round of showers before we cool down again.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

An area of mid and upper level moisture moved through overnight and will exit today with the last of the rain early this morning ending near the South Coast, and a clearing trend from west to east with increasing sun, and it will turn out quite warm this afternoon as well. A cold front will slide across the region from northwest to southeast this evening, and a few showers that it produces in northern New England will largely dissipate before getting to our area, but one or two may survive the journey as far as southeastern NH. Behind this, high pressure builds in tonight and we’ll see a rather significant temperature drop due to lower dewpoint air and calming winds. High pressure remains in control Monday and Tuesday with two mild days and a cool night between. We’ll see some high cloudiness fan into the region and filter the sun during Monday – associated with the happenings well to our south (more on that in a moment). Tuesday, another cold front will drop through the region, but not quickly enough to prevent one more mild day. It’s at midweek, Wednesday and Thursday, when the pressure gradient between the tropical system currently Tropical Depression 9 but likely soon to acquire the name Imelda as a tropical storm interacts with a large high pressure area building out of Canada. This will induce an active northeast wind here and also deliver a much cooler air mass to the region. A little more about tropical activity: Powerful Hurricane Humberto is expected to move northwest then curve northeast between Bermuda and the US East Coast – a little closer to Bermuda, while expected TS Imelda makes its way north northwest through the Bahamas, then gets captured by Humberto before fully reaching the US Southeast Coast, with a future path likely being more to the east and away from any land areas. There’s still some uncertainty with this and it needs to be closely monitored. Either way, some heavier rainfall can impact portions of the Southeast for a while, but it looks like the situation will not be as serious as it could have been.

TODAY: Early-morning light rain near Cape Cod / Islands comes to an end. Clouds give way to sun west to east. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower southern NH early, otherwise mostly clear, but patchy fog in low elevations overnight. Lows 46-53 rural / suburban areas, 53-60 urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW in the evening then diminishing to near calm overnight.

MONDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds from south to north. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

With the increasing chance that the tropical systems staying further south and moving to sea, and high pressure dominating our region, this looks like a mainly dry period of weather for our region with a temperature moderation early to mid period then a cool-down late period with the arrival of a cold front from the west, possibly producing a brief shower threat.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A little less uncertainty in today’s look out this far. Expecting a zonal flow pattern with a front or two to pass by, but little in the way of any rain threat. Variable temperatures will average out close to normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A generally dry and mild weekend, mostly dominated by high pressure, will be interrupted, kind-of, by an episode of cloudiness and maybe a little rain near the South Coast, mainly tonight as a plume of mid level moisture extending off low pressure to our south goes quickly by in the mid and upper wind, rendering the interruption nearly negligible. So, a nice weekend really. We hold onto the above normal temperatures Monday as well with more fair weather as high pressure continues its hold on the region. But some changes follow this as we say bye to September on Tuesday and hello to October on Wednesday. A strong cold front will move down from the north and northeast, pushed by a big Canadian high pressure area that will not only deliver much cooler air, but also more wind, as the pressure gradient tightens up between that high and tropical shenanigans occurring well to our south and southeast at the time. Shenanigans you ask? Well, these are the long-talked-about, well-advertised, and in some cases over-hyped tropical cyclones, you know the ones that some social media sites warned would “Fujiwhara” (or “Fujiwara” depending on your preferred spelling) into a monster hurricane that would basically swallow the entire eastern part of North America, and variations of that scenario. I hope that by now many folks are becoming wiser to the bogus information out there and paying less attention to it. What’s really up with these systems? Well, as of early this morning, we have Hurricane Humberto, located well south southeast of Bermuda and a significant distance northeast of the Leeward Islands. While Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane, the current forecast track takes it northeast of the Caribbean, well east of the Bahamas, well off the US East Coast, and re-curving west of Bermuda, sparing direct major impact there. If this takes place, that’s about as best-case scenario as you can have with a hurricane in the place it’s in now. Also, the second system, erroneously called “Imelda” over and over, before it’s named. Yes, it will likely end up with that name, because it’s likely to become a tropical storm today with nothing else in the basin to develop before that would happen, but until that moment it’s referred to in the present as “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine”. This system is forecast to become the “I” storm, strengthen steadily but not rapidly, maybe reaching minimal hurricane status over the next few days while approaching the US Southeast Coast. Now that model initialization is a little more trustable thanks to having a low center to initialize for the system, its solutions can be looked at a little more seriously. And immediately a trend emerges, and that is for a non-landfall scenario – a temporary impact with some heavier rain bands and flooding potential for portions of the Carolinas, coastal impact from heavy surf, but a non-direct hit, and in fact a situation where the storm then starts to move away from the coastline, following in the wake of Humberto out to sea. Will this be the final solution? We don’t know yet, but it’s a trend worth paying attention to…

TODAY: Sunshine become more limited as the day goes on. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain possible south of I-90. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds eastern and southern areas, then sunshine dominates. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Cool and breezy October 2 as high pressure sits to the north, then it builds over the region with continued dry weather and more tranquil conditions – chilly nights and slightly milder days heading through the balance of this period. The previous outlook discussed the need to watch tropical moisture to the south for possible late-period impact, but this was dependent on tropical moisture coming from the westernmost tropical system mentioned above, assuming a scenario that took it fully into the US Southeast. If the current trend of keeping it more offshore and eventually turning it away from the coast ends up the outcome, that moisture would be unavailable to be pulled northward by the pattern and we would never hear from it here. This scenario would allow high pressure to maintain control through the period. Again with the outcome still not certain, the confidence level of this outlook remains lower than average.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

A lot of uncertainty which is always triggered by previous uncertainty (you know how it goes by now). Leaning dry to start, wet weather chance later in the period with temperatures not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Here’s the outlook for the final 5 days of the month of September, including the first weekend of astronomical autumn. But let’s start with our Friday, today, featuring lowering dew points but still pretty mild to warm air behind last night’s cold frontal passage. This particular front, unlike several recent ones, is not delivering air as cool, so it’ll still be t-shirt and light jacket weather today with a sun/cloud mix, along with an active breeze at times. While I expect dry weather to be dominant, the approach and passage of an upper trough and surface reflection can trigger a passing shower, particularly north of I-90, from late afternoon to early evening, so watch for that. Any activity would be isolated and short-lived, but could provide a rainbow photo-up if occurring prior to sunset! This trough will introduce slightly cooler air for our upcoming weekend, which looks mainly dry. The only thing we have to watch for is a little light rain / shower activity on the northern edge of low pressure passing well to our south. This could bring some raindrops out of a period of heavier cloud cover especially south of I-90 in the Saturday night to Sunday morning time frame. Sunshine will be most abundant Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon. Early next week is one of those times where the weather will be interesting while not much is happening, at least visually notable. The set-up is large scale. As you know, the tropics in the Atlantic got more active this week, with Hurricane Gabrielle at sea, but now passing through the Azores as a post-tropical cyclone. TS Humberto is organizing and strengthening over water and its track is expected to be over water into next week, taking it west of Bermuda but well off the US East Coast. A disturbance with a very good chance of becoming the next named system (would be Imelda, but not there as of this update) has a less-clear future, but can be a threat to the US Southeast Coast in the days ahead. (There will be chatter about that in the comments and I’ll share future updates from colleagues as well.) Meanwhile, we’ll have a very mild Monday as a weak area of high pressure sinks to our south, but a strong cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, with no rain threat, but just some passing clouds and a notable wind shift. A large high pressure area will be building in eastern Canada, providing the push for the front and delivering cooler air by later Tuesday – that day itself still being on the milder side but not as warm as Monday. We’ll also notice, after fairly light winds on Monday, a pick-up of a north to northeast wind on Tuesday as part of the air flow between the big high in eastern Canada and the well-offshore and well-to-the-south tropical activity. So despite the fact that we are going into a quieter sensible weather stretch here, there is still much to follow.

TODAY: Sun filtered often by lots of high clouds into afternoon then developing puffy clouds from the west later with a slight chance of a passing shower, even brief downpour, mainly north of I-90 by late-day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Patchy ground fog low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine most dominate morning and more limited afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain possible south of I-90. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Considerable cloudiness early to mid morning including the chance of a little light rain near the South Coast, then increasing sunshine. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH / coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

Midweek next week features a cooler shot with a gusty breeze from the northeast between high pressure to the north and far-offshore Humberto. Fair, tranquil weather – cool nights & milder days – later next week. Potentially needing to watch moisture to the south by very end of period – more to say about this soon (could be remnant tropical moisture).

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Not a high confidence outlook with uncertainty regarding future behavior of tropical moisture to the south, but may hear from it in the form of wet weather to start this period before a drier pattern returns.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Low pressure passes to our northwest and north today and tonight, and its warm front / cold front duet will result in a pretty wet day and evening here. Beneficial rainfall occurs for most of the region, with many areas seeing up to or over 1 inch of rain, and a few areas seeing up to 2 inches. General rain areas with a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms will traverse the region with the warm front during the day, and showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will come along this evening with the cold front. Behind this system comes a day of mixed clouds and sun on Friday. Shower chances now appear absent, so dry weather is expected, and it will be fairly mild as there is not a big push of cooler air behind the cold front. High pressure builds in for Saturday with fair weather, and holds for most of Sunday, though as we’ve seen on several occasional recently, low pressure to our south will spread some cloudiness northward into the region on Sunday, although right now I think any rain from it stays south. This general idea will hold true Monday – limited sun, mild, but no rain.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Slight chance of thunder.storms. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas, during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Expected pattern would favor high pressure to dominate with dry weather here, while any rainfall and other impacts from potential tropical systems staying south of the region and out to sea to the southeast. A more pronounced north to northeast air flow brings in cooler air and creates a gusty breeze for a couple days early in the period between the center of high pressure and the offshore happenings.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Again leaning toward high pressure bring more dominant with a drier pattern here while we watch low pressure and maybe tropical remnants to the south to see if they can make it this far north … eventually.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

The overall pattern is a little wetter (and a bit warmer) than we’d seen for a while. The former is a step in the right direction in terms of slowing the progress of drought expansion in the region, so we’ll take what we can get. Ironically I mention a warmer pattern when today is going to be a fair number of degrees cooler than yesterday was across the region, but my words take into account the overall pattern, which features fewer Canadian cool shots for a while, rather than the comparison between 2 consecutive days. The warmth of yesterday is replaced by a cooler maritime air mass today behind a frontal boundary that moved slowly southward through the region late yesterday through overnight, triggering showers and even some thunderstorm activity in some locations. Today, the frontal boundary comes to a stop near or just off the South Coast, and a moist northeasterly to air flow across our region and some lift over the frontal boundary from the south and west will combine to generate some additional showers and drizzle, making today a grey, damp, cooler day overall. A more prominent low pressure area will make a northeastward run through the Northeast, passing northwest of our region Thursday through early Friday. This will drag that frontal boundary back north and northeast as a warm front Thursday, with periodic rainfall in our region, then following it up will be a cold front at night into early Friday with another round of showers and possible thunder. Current timing suggests that most of this activity will have moved through and offshore by dawn on Friday, with the daytime hours featuring a sun/cloud mix and just a low chance of an additional pop up shower. There also isn’t all that much cool air behind this particular “cold front” so look for generally above normal temperatures to dominate on Friday, and into the weekend as well which looks quite nice as high pressure builds in Saturday and tries to hang around on Sunday. In the previous update, I mentioned a shower chance on Sunday due to a passing trough, and while this disturbance is still likely to pass by, the moisture will be lacking for it to produce much more than some passing clouds, so currently I have removed the shower chance from Sunday’s forecast. Meanwhile, the tropics have gotten more active, and there are two potential systems in the western Atlantic, one of which is close enough to have a possible impact, eventually, on a portion of the US East Coast. In the comments section below, I am going to share a tropical blog written by colleagues.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW by late-day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower possible. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 68-75. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun mix. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Expected pattern would favor high pressure to dominate with dry weather here, while any rainfall and other impacts from potential tropical systems staying south of the region and out to sea to the southeast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

It seems we’ll be doing what we’ve often done again since late summer – watching low pressure to the south that likely stays down there with no impact up our way, and seeking systems from the west that might have a chance to bring some beneficial showers, but without much luck to that end. Overall pattern leans dry and seasonable.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

On this first full day of autumn – a taste of summer as high pressure sits offshore and a southwest wind blows, transporting in warmth and higher humidity. An approaching cold front will trigger a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm in a few locations, with activity favoring areas west of Boston by late day or evening. The main batch of shower activity is expected to hold off until tonight, however. As the front slows and settles slowly southeastward through the region, then comes to a stop just to our south, cooler air moves in, but it doesn’t dry out completely, and the chance of showers persists into Wednesday. Another area of low pressure tracking northeastward will drag that front back through as a warm front during Thursday, with a batch of rain traversing our area. While any rain is beneficial at this point, this still does not look like a big soaking. However, we will find ourselves briefly in the warm sector of this storm after the warm front goes by and before the cold front arrives, at which time additional showers and a few downpours can take place later Thursday to early Friday. Some guidance has indicated the shower activity persists into Friday, while other guidance has shown the system making a quicker exit. Leaning toward the quicker exit, but will leave the shower chance in the forecast for the first part of Friday for now. I’ve also considerably bumped up my temperature forecast for Friday based on the fact this system does not have a very significant push of cool air behind it. Currently I am expecting a narrow area of high pressure to provide fair, mild weather for Saturday.

TODAY: Lots of sun with patchy clouds trending to less sun with more clouds later in the day when a shower or t-storm may pop up mainly west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be briefly gusty near any showers or storms.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 61-18. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

A trough moving through from west to east may produce a passing shower on September 28 but most of that day looks dry. High pressure builds in beyond that with a stretch of fair weather expected to end September and start October. That said, there remains some uncertainty and low confidence in this forecast based on both guidance inconsistency and the potential for some tropical activity off or even near the US East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Low confidence outlook period continues but also continuing to lean toward a drier pattern with variable but mostly near normal temperatures, with a quick cooler shot or two possible.