7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
The wildcard was lower cloudiness, and we have some of that, but not too extensively, to start the day, so still some areas see sunshine for a while, but either way as the day goes on the higher cloud shield from the coastal / ocean storm to the south of New England will be increasing anyway, so sun eventually loses the battle either way. Rainfall from this system, as previously mentioned, must fight quite a bit of dry air to get going here and that particular battle won’t really be won until the early morning hours of Monday, south to north. This turns Monday wet for everyone eventually, and there still may be a few pockets of freezing rain over portions of central MA, interior northeastern MA, and interior southern NH. I don’t think the cold air will be deep enough to support any sleet. Any freezing rain will be fleeting too as temperatures warm to above freezing by midday Monday at the latest in those locations. Elsewhere, no icing issues with this. The low center passes east of New England Monday night and rain shuts off, but lower level moisture may keep drizzle going, and then Tuesday a lobe of energy or a trailing trough may produce another period of rain (maybe some mix higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH) as it pulls through the region during the morning hours. This is a change from yesterday’s thinking of temporary drying out timed for the morning. Drier air eventually gets in later Tuesday and may be more dominant than previously expected for Wednesday as another storm system evolves well offshore and is not a factor in the weather here, other than to help freshen a northweterly wind between itself and high pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. This high will pass south of the region resulting in a very nice Thursday, which puts us to exactly one week before Thanksgiving…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain arrives south to north overnight. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning through early afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain except possibly some ice/sleet central MA and southwestern NH. Variably cloudy afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Low pressure passes north of the region and drags a frontal system through on November 22 with unsettled weather. Dry/chilly November 23. Another low passes south of the region November 24, possibly close enough for rain and even some mix. Fair, chilly weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Will watch for another frontal system passing through around the start of the period from a low that will track across southeastern Canada, exact timing not clear this far out. Another relatively minor system should be passing by around November 29, but again timing uncertain. Overall westerly flow with changeable temperatures but nothing too extreme.

7:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
We are just beyond the mid point of this next-to-last month of 2019 and we’ve been feeling hints of winter, in some cases more than hints, like the sharpness of a couple cold air masses that had their sources in Siberia or near the North Pole. Santa must be in the spirit early! Anyway, another shot of that air is with us now, a little less stinging than the previous one, but nevertheless if you are outside today you’ll feel it, despite the bright but low angle November sunshine that rose in the 6AM hour and will say goodnight before 4:30PM. The high pressure area responsible for this latest batch of cold will not fully cross the region, but bank itself just to the north of here, then slide to the east. It will be strong enough, however, to hold a developing ocean storm south of New England somewhat at bay for a period of time, keeping it dry and at least partially sunny on Sunday as high cloudiness tries to increase across the the region while fighting dry air. A wildcard is whether or not we see any lower level ocean cloudiness come in from the east. This may be the case for some eastern areas of MA and NH and perhaps into RI. With this somewhat uncertain aspect of the forecast even 24 hours in advance I’ll keep simple wording in the details below then expand if needed for tomorrow’s update. Regardless, Sunday will be precipitation-free during the day, and probably for a good deal of the evening until finally later at night the moisture from the south starts to win the battle in more and more of the atmosphere. But this storm, unlike the NAM’s prediction of a close-to-the-coast track, is probably going to end up a little further offshore and we’ll be more on the outskirts of its envelope of moisture rather than right in the thick of it. Somewhat heavier rainfall may get close to or onto Cape Cod and perhaps near the MA eastern coast, but to me this looks largely like a lighter rain event. But what about that freezing rain/sleet that the news said may happen? Yes, it may happen, if we have enough precipitation, over interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH, so that will be something to watch for in the early hours of Monday. In some cases the ground is still too warm to support any freezing of precipitation, but there are exceptions, so it’s just better to be aware of what is possible. Any freezing/frozen stuff there will be short-lived as anything else that falls will be rain, but then the progressive nature of the system will bring it north and we’ll see a wind-down of rainfall. A few back-side patches of light rain/sleet may visit central MA and southern NH into Monday night. In previous updates I’d kept the clouds in tight for Tuesday, but enough dry air may get into the region behind the first system to clear us out at least partially for a while early Tuesday, and if we’re lucky enough it may not even by that bad a day. But what about the next system for Wednesday? Yup. It’ll be there – somewhere – probably too far offshore to have much of an impact other than a gusty northerly wind and a lot of clouds. We likely escape its entire precipitation shield but have enough unstable air over us for a rain or snow shower as temperatures will be borderline as far as precipitation-type goes. If I had to guess one way, odds favor rain showers over snow showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing slightly this afternoon. Wind chill in the 10s this morning, 20s at times this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain arrives south to north overnight. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning through early afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/ice/sleet possible central MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Weather systems should be moving along rather swiftly and we should see a nice day to start the period November 21, a quick-moving frontal system and low pressure area with unsettled weather for at least a portion of November 22 before a shot of chilly air arrives with wind which lasts into November 23 with dry weather. Watching for a passing low pressure system (quicker than previously though) November 24 with a precipitation threat, probably rain, but may stay south. If the pattern is as progressive as I currently think then we see dry weather back for the end of the period, kind-of, as there may be another trough approaching by late November 25. Note: Not super high confidence and this may still change.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Specific timing is iffy but there may be a departing trough with rain/snow showers to start then another system sometime later in the period (November 29?) with a precipitation threat. Looks like a fast-moving weather pattern with no major storminess at this time, and dry weather the vast majority of the time.

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A warm front went by overnight, taking away whatever remained of the cold air mass that was in place. Today will be a mild day with fair weather, but 2 cold fronts are set to pass by, one this afternoon and one tonight. The second front will be producing snow showers in northern New England but the moisture with it will dry up before reaching southern New England, so tonight just some clouds will mark its passage. But you will feel the return to cold air, along with wind, behind this front for Saturday. This bubble of high pressure from Canada is going to remain centered to the north of the region during the weekend, sliding to the east, and while this happens a low pressure area will organize off the US Southeast / Mid Atlantic coast but rapidly mature and peak in strength well to the south of New England, but as it fills, broadens, and weakens gradually, it will bump up against the departing high pressure area late in the weekend and bring a breezy wet weather event to southeastern New England Sunday night into Monday. We’ll have lost any cold air aloft by then, so whatever falls from the sky will be liquid. The only risk of anything frozen taking place is a bit of sleet or freezing rain in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH Sunday night and very early Monday as just cold enough air may be in place at the surface. That system will be out of here later Monday, but a general northeasterly air flow will keep low level moisture in place through Tuesday, so at this point it does not look like much clearing will take place initially behind the low pressure system. If the air flow ends up more northerly than currently anticipated, we’d see some clearing.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling to the 10s overnight.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Lowering overcast. Rain arrives south to north. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coast.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Another low pressure area has to be watched but current indications are it will pass pretty far offshore with just cloudiness and wind here on November 20, then a westerly air flow brings in slightly milder and dry air for November 21 before a low pressure area tracking eastward and passing north of the region November 22 brings its fronts through and results in more unsettled weather. Things moving right along means a return to fair weather for November 23, but by later November 24 we may already be eyeing low pressure tracking from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Thanksgiving Week may start with a coastal storm threat but it’s too far away to even start talking about any details. It could just as easily end up too far south for any impact. The remainder of the week looks like it will be back in a westerly air flow pattern with passing minor systems 1 or 2 times, but largely dry weather. There will be plenty of fine-tuning ahead as this is an important travel time.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
The high pressure area that brought a batch of mid winter feeling air here is on its way out and as it starts to warm both at the surface and aloft we’ll see more cloudiness today. The should be a largely precipitation-free process except the risk of some rain showers in east coastal MA and especially Cape Cod tonight. This leads to a milder Friday as a westerly air flow takes over, but a cold front coming through, also generally absent of precipitation, on Friday evening will introduce another blast of colder air for Saturday, although this one will not be to the magnitude of the one just leaving us. Saturday’s chilly blast will come along with a gusty breeze as high pressure builds across southeastern Canada. This high will sit up there on Sunday as low pressure organizes off the Mid Atlantic Coast, a low we’ll have to keep an eye on just beyond this forecast period. However it should already be spreading some high level clouds across the sky…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early sun, then mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW to S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible eastern MA especially Cape Cod. Lows 32-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Additional low pressure offshore through November 20 may result in more unsettled weather, mainly rain at times though a mix possible interior higher elevations. A more westerly flow takes over November 21-23 with a trough passage due around November 22 that may produce some rain and/or snow showers. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
May have to watch for one more system offshore with a precipitation threat around November 25 but not a high confidence forecast. Should be back to westerly flow mid to late period with brief rain/snow shower threats otherwise mostly dry.

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Cold air more like mid winter is here for a brief but stinging stay today, with wind making it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. Boston should break a long-standing record set in 1874 (36) for the coldest high temperature for the day (forecasting a 33). Bundle up if you’ll be outside! The bubble of arctic high pressure that brought this air to us will slide offshore by Thursday, and gradually warming air will bring more cloudiness and perhaps a snow or rain shower by evening but not looking for much out of that threat. This will hang on until early Friday and then a westerly air flow will increase as a moisture-starved trough approaches and passes, clearing it out. A cold front will pass later and bring in another brief shot of colder air for Saturday before a slight moderation takes place Sunday with high pressure in control. However this high will give way somewhat to low pressure to the south later Sunday allowing some increased cloudiness. I don’t expect that low pressure area to move too quickly or too far north to spoil the end of the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 except 33-38 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill frequently below 20.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 except 23-28 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Lows 32-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Watching low pressure to the south in the November 18-21 period, likely 2 centers, either of which can impact the region with at least clouds and a gusty breeze, but may be close enough for precipitation (favoring rain). By the end of the period a dry westerly air flow should be back.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
A zonal (west to east) flow pattern with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple rain shower threats, the greater one toward the end of the period.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
Get ready for a temperature crash! But before that, we have some fog, some rain, and a bit of snow to get through. No, not big snow – not even close. But there is one tweak to the forecast today and that has to do with timing and moisture. As the cold front passes today, many areas will mix with and change to snow, and accumulation will be very minor – under 1 inch on grassy surfaces and car tops, and maybe a slushy trace on cemented or paved areas that are cold enough. The change has to do with a surge of moisture coming up behind the front just enough to keep the snow going a little longer as it gets dark over parts of southeastern MA and Cape Cod for a better chance of a coating of snow there, and a little less time for surfaces to dry off tonight as the temperature really falls. So those same areas may see a little more coverage of frozen puddles and black ice heading into Wednesday morning. Anywhere that does experience that will see it dry/sublimate due to very dry air and windy conditions through Wednesday, a day that will feel much more likely January than the middle of November. But things change quickly around here, and even though Thursday will be a very chilly day too, it will begin to moderate a bit with much less wind, and with high pressure slipping off to the east as well, an increase in moisture should lead to a few more clouds than previously indicated. Another minor tweak for this forecast is the removal of the rain shower risk for Friday, leaving just some clouds in as a cold front approaches and passes. That day itself will be milder, but a quick shot of cold air will follow this for Saturday as high pressure moves across the Upper Great Lakes into southeastern Canada.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Rain overspreading the region west to east morning, ending as mix/snow west to east mid afternoon to early evening with minor accumulation (under 1 inch) in some locations, favoring unpaved surfaces. Highs 41-46 I-495 belt northwest of Boston, 47-52 Boston-Providence corridor, 53-58 to the southeast morning and midday, with a sharp drop west to east during the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially north and west of Boston, from west to east during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice on many surfaces that have not dried off or been treated. Lows 15-20 except 20-25 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10, approaching 0 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 except 33-38 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill frequently below 20.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 except 23-28 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
High pressure protects the region with dry weather and a slight temperature moderation to finish off the weekend November 17. The November 18-21 period is a little more tricky as we will have high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south, and there will be a bit of a battle between the two. The weather here can range from fair, to cloudy, to wet. It will be a more moderate temperature pattern so we would not likely have any frozen precipitation to worry about, just rain, but at this point I’m giving the edge to the high pressure area to the north keeping most of the wet weather south. It may not be as successful holding the clouds off, which may also be added to by an air flow off the Atlantic. But it’s early to go into any more detail than that. Just keep in mind the potential scenario which will be fine-tuned.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-25)
A return to a zonal (west to east) flow pattern with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple brief precipitation threats, mainly passing rain showers, depending on the timing of disturbances.

8:15AM

Veteran’s Day 2019. Thank you to all who have served us!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
A 5-day period that will start mild and end mild will have quite a different story to tell between those mild bookends. We start out with mild air and lots of cloudiness ahead of a cold front slowly approaching the region today. That front will almost make it into southeastern New England but will be temporarily halted by a wave of low pressure which will pass northwest of this area during Tuesday, but as it does so, it will whip the front through more rapidly during the afternoon, causing what starts as rain to end as mix/snow for some areas (minor accumulation mainly north and west of Boston), and a sharp temperature drop, and not just to levels cold for November, but levels that would still qualify as somewhat below normal for mid winter, along with wind, Tuesday night through Wednesday. Get ready! As high pressure moves closer, passing just north of the region, Thursday will still be cold but more tranquil. As the high starts to move away, a light south wind and increasing moisture will bring milder air in but also the risk of a few snow showers (at first Thursday night) then rain showers during Friday, returning the same kind of feel to the air that we will have today. By late Friday, we may already be seeing an increase in wind as the next weather change gets ready to occur…
Forecast details…
TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Brief very light rain showers possible central MA and southern NH midday-afternoon. Highs 45-50 north and west of Boston, 50-55 Boston southward. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain overspreading the region west to east morning, ending as snow north and west of Boston with a under 1 inch accumulation on unpaved surfaces afternoon, ending as snow/rain mix Boston southward with no accumulation later in the day. Highs 45-52 northwest of Boston, 52-59 Boston southward occurring in the morning, then a sharp drop from west to east during the afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts from west to east during the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Black ice on any roads and walkways that haven’t dried off. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Brief passing snow showers possible. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S late.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds move in. Risk of a snow shower. Lows 25-32. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W and increasing late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
High pressure from Canada centers itself north of the region over the weekend delivering dry, chilly air November 16 moderating slightly November 17. The high center will be close enough for fair weather November 18 then slip away enough to allow more cloudiness and additional temperature moderation November 19, but looking precipitation-free at this point. A new bubble of high pressure should arrive by the end of the period with fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
A general west to east (zonal) pattern is expected with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple brief precipitation threats, mainly passing rain showers, depending on the timing of disturbances.

7:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
A little change has taken place during the night. After an evening with a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky with just areas of mid level clouds when the temperature was allowed to drop off rather quickly with light wind, we’ve seen a southerly breeze and more cloudiness arrive overnight, capping the temperature drop and evening causing it to rise in some locations. This is a result of warmer air arriving both at the surface and aloft, and while there will be somewhat less sunshine today than there was yesterday, it will be noticeably milder. This more pleasant November feel will also hold on for Veterans Day Monday, not bad at all for outdoor ceremonies and parades, even if sunshine is not plentiful. The additional cloudiness will be the signal of a cold front pressing toward the region from the northwest. Similar to the system of last Thursday, a wave of low pressure will form on this boundary and will cross close to the region Tuesday, a day that turns wet and then ends with a mix or flip to snow in some areas, especially north and west of Boston, as much colder air arrives upon the departure of the low pressure wave and passage of the front. Not looking for any significant snowfall, but as mentioned previously, there will be the threat of some wet ground freezing up with areas of ice. A quick increase in wind and drop off in dew point will help to evaporate / sublimate any water / ice, but still be aware that there may be slippery spots later Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Wednesday itself will be the coldest day of the season so far, along with wind, making it feel more like January. Expect dry weather other than a risk of a few passing light snow showers. High pressure moves in Thursday, a day that will still be cold but much more tranquil.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with or change to snow late-day central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning, falling slowly afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A weakening disturbance along with a warming air mass will bring lots of clouds and a slight risk of scattered light rain on November 15. High pressure from Canada centers itself north of the region over the weekend delivering dry, chilly air November 16 moderating slightly November 17. The high center will be close enough for fair weather November 18 then slip away enough to allow more cloudiness and additional temperature moderation November 19, but looking precipitation-free at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
A general west to east (zonal) pattern is expected. At this time not thinking much moisture will be available from the south so will have to watch for systems coming along in the zonal flow, and one such should come by around November 21 with a rain shower risk, with otherwise mainly dry weather dominating for this period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

8:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
A quick drop off in wind overnight allowed many areas to fall below my forecast range for low temperatures. That chill will hang around today, but will be more tolerable today than yesterday with much less wind. Some warming aloft will produce more in the way of cloudiness for Sunday, but it will still be a nice day overall. This will continue well into Monday, Veterans Day, making conditions favorable for outdoor ceremonies scheduled in many cities and towns. Things change Monday night, however, as a front settles into the region and moisture, enhanced by a developing low pressure wave, arrives. But like last time, we’ll have mild enough air around for mainly a rain event developing Tuesday, and also like last time, we’ll see a race between the end of the precipitation and the arrival of a much colder air mass, so some areas will likely flip to snow before everything exits Tuesday evening. Once again the greatest risk for any accumulation of snow will be north and west of Boston. If snowfall numbers need to be discussed, they will appear in Monday’s blog post. One thing is for sure, the next surge of cold air arriving Tuesday night through Wednesday will be the coldest of the season so far.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with or change to snow late-day central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning, falling slowly afternoon. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH, becoming N 5-15 MPH later.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Quick transition out of the cold/wind to the chilly/tranquil with fair weather November 14. A disturbance arrives with milder air and a rain shower risk November 15 then high pressure from Canada brings a dry air mass for the November 16-17 weekend, starting out chilly then moderating, and should hold unsettled weather off well to the south through November 18 as well.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Will continue to keep an eye for potential unsettled weather originating from southwest of New England but still leaning toward dominant high pressure keeping it on the drier side for a good portion of this period. Temperatures for this period should average near to above normal.

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Our weather pattern is one that leaves New England vulnerable to shots of cold polar air from Canada, and one such shot is arriving now. Today will feel more like late December or early January due to cold air and a gusty wind, but other than the remote risk of a brief rain or snow shower from ocean moisture over Cape Cod and the remote risk of an orographically-induced snow flurry over the higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA during the day, it will be dry. The cold and wind will continue into tonight, making it rather uncomfortable for high school football games. If you will be at one of these, dress for mid winter conditions. The weekend, a 3-day for many as Monday is Veterans Day, will be generally nice, but starting out rather cold on Saturday. However less wind will make it more tolerable than today will be. By Sunday, some cloudiness may be around at times as a disturbance moves through, but it will be slightly milder. It looks like an approaching cold front will be sluggish getting through the region on Veterans Day Monday, and the front being starved for moisture initially means just some cloudiness is expected but with temperatures on the milder side. Just as the cold front is coming through later Monday and Monday evening it will likely be halted and temporarily pushed back a bit north as the progressive nature of the pattern is going to allow low pressure to develop sooner and move more quickly along the boundary, moving north of the region during the first half of Tuesday. This set-up will be similar to what we just went through and we should see a band of rain or rain showers which may end as snow showers or a period of snow especially north and west before the front pulls through and much colder air starts its arrival later Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill middle to upper 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible mainly midday and afternoon, may end as snow or snow showers north and west late in the day. Highs 43-50, but a sharp drop late-day or night. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-25 MPH late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Coldest air of the season so far along with wind and dry weather with only a slight risk of an isolated snow shower for November 13. Continued cold but less wind November 14 as high pressure moves in. Disturbance arrives with milder air and a rain shower risk November 15. High pressure returns from Canada with another dry and chilly air mass for November 16-17 but not as cold as the previous shot.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
A little tricky here as medium range guidance says “hey, watch for a coastal storm” but I’ve seen this indicated before in this pattern and it doesn’t really come to fruition, so I have my doubts for now and will lean toward southern energy staying south and northern energy staying mostly north and just sending fronts through with overall dry weather, brief precipitation (mainly rain shower) threats with overall moderating temperatures, not too far from or slightly above normal. This is not a high confidence forecast at this time.

6:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
A cold front will approach southeastern New England today, sending clouds and eventual rain into the region later today into tonight. This front is the leading edge of a cold polar air mass from Canada which will be moving in tonight as the precipitation gets ready to end overnight, and will be quick enough north and west of Boston to flip the rain to at least mix and probably snow before it moves out. There’s an outside change that the rain/snow mix makes it all the way to Boston but no guarantee. Either way, if there is any accumulation at all, it will be minor and fleeting in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. The bigger story will be the wind and cold air on Friday which will make it feel more like early winter. Brr! The wind will keep up into Friday night, and any late-season high school football games will be played with wind chills as low as the teens as the air temperature falls from the 30s into the 20s. Saturday will be dry and cold, but the wind will ease up a bit so it will not feel as cold as Friday. A slight change to the weekend forecast is that a small disturbance and warming air aloft will combine to produce some cloudiness for Sunday, though temperature moderation will occur. By Monday, Veterans Day, an approaching cold front looks like it will be a little slower, allowing at least the morning and midday hours to be reasonably comfortable for outdoor Veterans Day ceremonies that are scheduled for many cities and towns.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible favoring higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, and briefly mixing with snow into Metro Boston (staying rain further southeast) while tapering off around or shortly after midnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill middle to upper 20s at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to N late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
The front that comes through Monday will sit just south of the region and allow a wave of low pressure to move up along it on Tuesday (Nov 12) with rain/mix more likely than snow, but still need to watch as changes are possible. Wednesday (Nov 13) should see clearing, windy, much colder weather behind the departing wave, before high pressure moves in for a cool but more tranquil Thursday (Nov 14). Current timing would take a weak disturbance in from the west for Friday (Nov 15) with milder air and a risk of rain showers, before a chilly high pressure area approaches and clears the region out with a colder wind for Saturday (Nov 16).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
Dry, moderating temperatures as high pressure dominates early in the period. Some unsettled weather is possible middle or later portion of the period with milder air more dominant.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
High pressure provides a nice early November day today. A cold front approaches Thursday with clouds and eventually wet weather, though that may hold off until very late in the day. The front slides through at night as a wave of low pressure develops on it and moves across the region, intensifying after it moves away. As cold air is pulled in, it becomes cold enough to start supporting snow instead of rain north and west of Boston but this will also take place as drier air moves in and the precipitation ends, so brief snow is really all that possible in those areas, so a “worst case” scenario would only produce a minor accumulation at higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH that would melt shortly after it fell as the ground is still on the warmer side for holding onto any snow. However, Friday itself will be a windy and cold day, feeling more like early winter. The chill will continue through Saturday but with less wind, so other than a very cold morning, the daytime will feel less cold than Friday. A little more temperature moderation will occur Sunday with a southwesterly air flow ahead of another approaching cold front, but initially this front will be moisture-starved, so only a few clouds are expected to move in during Sunday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible favoring higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a snow shower (north) and rain shower (south) possible early, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
A front will be nearby, probably just to the south, November 11 (Veterans Day) so expect some cloudiness and cool conditions. From the night of November 11 into November 13 waves of low pressure will travel along that boundary south of the region with cloud cover and occasional precipitation in the form of rain and/or snow, depending on location. Not looking for a large winter storm type event, however. Drier weather arrives thereafter as high pressure pushes in but a disturbance may bring a rain shower risk around November 15 with milder air briefly.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
We may eventually need to watch a boundary to the south for the threat of unsettled weather but for now looking for high pressure to be dominant with mainly dry weather during this period, starting colder than average then moderating.

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
A low pressure trough swings through the region from west to east today bringing a warm front / cold front combo. A tongue of low level moisture will aid in setting up an area of soaking showers favoring southeastern and eastern MA this afternoon, where a rumble of thunder is even possible. Back to the west only a few showers are possible. This system will push offshore during tonight and high pressure will bring fair, seasonably chilly weather Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday, returning clouds to the region during the day. A low pressure wave will be developing along that front, and similar to yesterday’s thinking, it will be the dominant wave on the front while it impacts this area, with precipitation coming in late Thursday or Thursday night in the form of rain, but possibly flipping to a period of snow or snow showers especially north and west of Boston as it ends in the early hours of Friday, but at this point it looks like if there was to be any snow accumulation it would favor higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH and be minor at that. During the day Friday, the coldest air of the season so far will be arriving as it dries out and eventually clears out too. This will line the region up for a Saturday that will be bright but with a bite – feeling more like early winter than mid to late autumn.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers this afternoon, but an area of more numerous showers and possible embedded thunder favoring southeastern and eastern MA later in the day. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a snow shower (north) and rain shower (south) possible early, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
A weak trough will pass by later November 10 to early November 11 that may produce a rain or snow shower in a few locations but otherwise dry and a little less cold. Will watch low pressure to the south and southeast November 12-13 which should pull away by November 14 with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A disturbance to start the period may bring a few rain showers with milder temperatures then a stretch of dry, colder weather followed by some moderation.

6:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
High pressure hangs on today with fair weather then slides away and allows a trough to swing through for Tuesday, a day that will be a little milder but feature a risk of rain showers. Another bubble of high pressure brings fair and seasonably chilly weather for Wednesday. A quick shot of slightly milder air precedes a cold front which will slide through the region from northwest to southeast during Thursday, exiting slowly as a wave of low pressure tries to form on it. This system will bring a period or two of rain which may end as snow for much of the region, depending on moisture departure and cold air arrival, in the early hours of Friday. With some guidance turning this into a bigger event than I expect, it’s still worth watching, but for now expecting it to be a quick event with further development taking place too far south to impact the region, and Friday just ending up drying, windy, and cold.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Afternoon light rain possible. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, likely changing to snow at least north and west of Boston with some accumulation possible. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain/snow likely early, then clearing. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
November 9-10 weekend will be fair but cold Saturday with wind and highs in the 30s, chilly Sunday with less wind and highs in the 40s. Veterans Day looks mainly dry at this time but on the chilly side as a front moves in and brings an increase in cloudiness, and this may set up the possibility of rain and snow in the November 12-13 time frame as low pressure passes south of the region .. something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Quick glance ahead shows fair weather and temperature moderation November 14, a system passing by with rain showers around November 15, then another shot of cold air for the November 16-17 weekend and a moderation at the end of the period with generally dry weather.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)
An even quicker update for your Sunday, as there are no significant changes to the forecast at this point. A nice weekend continues, chilly early November weather, but pleasant during the day, although today will turn out to be a little more breezy compared to yesterday as a gradient sets up between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure pushing toward New England from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This high will control our weather through Monday, another nice day. A trough of low pressure swings through Tuesday when it will be milder but also carry a risk of rain showers. Another area of high pressure takes a similar route to the previous one on Wednesday, another nice late autumn day for southeastern New England. But quick-moving systems mean the next front will be in the area Thursday when more clouds and a risk of rain showers will be back.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a risk of rain showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Cold front comes through early November 8 when rain showers may end as snow showers as colder air arrives. Front should push far enough south to allow a wave of low pressure to pass south enough to keep additional precipitation south of the region but some clouds at least over southern areas for November 8. The November 9-10 weekend will be fair and cold, windy Saturday but more tranquil Sunday. November 11 (Veterans Day) will become breezy but milder, and a cold front passes late-day or evening with a rain shower risk. This front may sit just south of the region and keep clouds in place through November 12 and we may need to watch for a rain threat if a low pressure wave moves along the front.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Unsettled weather risk to start the period then overall drier weather with some up and down temperatures. A little low confidence on how things work out during this period at this time.