DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)

It seems like we’ve been talking about Patriots Day forever, but it’s here. This holiday is celebrated in Maine, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, so not every part of the WHW forecast area has this day as a holiday, but in Massachusetts, it’s a significant one in that we now see the return of the Boston Marathon to this day after 2020’s was cancelled and 2021’s was held as a limited-participant race and held in October. And of course there is also the traditional Boston Red Sox late-morning first pitch home game today. We’ve seen all kinds of weather over the years on the day of the Marathon, including snowflakes in the air, wind and rain, and temps as high as the middle 90s. Today, the early-morning low temperature at the start line of the Marathon in Hopkinton MA was 33. But there is bright April sun shining and the temperature, which has already reached the upper 30s there as of 8:00 a.m., will be climbing through the 40s and into 50s along the race course and across the region, although along the coastline that temperature rise will be halted right around 50 as we see a light northerly breeze evolve into a sea breeze. This sea breeze will penetrate a bit of a distance inland, so many of the runners, especially the middle and later runners, will be arriving in the city of Boston and running into a sea breeze head wind. This is also a good time to remind anybody planning to be out along the course to support runners, or at the baseball game at Fenway Park, or anywhere outside for more than just a few minutes, it’s a good idea to apply sun block as you can acquire a sunburn in under an hour if you’re in direct sunlight. Despite the chill of early morning and the afternoon sea breeze, the weather is “being nice” to us, waiting until all these activities are completed before it turns on us. This will be a result of a low pressure area developing and moving up the Middle Atlantic Coast and into our area tonight and early Tuesday. There is enough cold air in place as the precipitation arrives that some snow may fall in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, but a more certain snowfall will occur west of the WHW forecast area in the Berkshires – not unusual for April. But the vast bulk of this system will be a rain event with gusty wind, the direction at any given location determined by the low’s exact track. By Tuesday afternoon, the low center will already be heading away from us and into southeastern Canada via northern New England, and at that time we’ll see a drying trend and gusty westerly wind with chilly air. On Wednesday, we will still feel a bit of a chilly breeze between approaching high pressure and the storm over the Canadian Maritimes, but by late-day and nighttime that wind will be gone as the high center moves over us. But this will also set up a chilly Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and a large temperature diurnal (difference between morning low and afternoon high) as we get into a warming southwesterly air flow ahead of an approaching frontal system on Thursday. This system should pass by with limited rain shower activity later Thursday and early Friday, but a gusty shifting breeze and a cooler Friday…

TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 51-58, turning cooler coast midday-afternoon. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow with some minor accumulation interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late in the day. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)

Pattern evolution potential from zonal to blocking. Unsettled weather episodes around April 24 and April 27 are rough guesses at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28 – MAY 3)

Blocking pattern potential. Near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation. Detail this far in advance not possible.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-18-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)

Happy Easter to those celebrating today! It’s a bright and beautiful but chilly and breezy Easter morning as I write this, and it’s going to be a cool and fairly blustery day, but we won’t keep the bright sunshine all day. As a pool of even colder air moves overhead, we’ll see a significant amount of diurnal cloud formation starting later this morning and through afternoon, some of them potentially releasing rain showers, some of which may contain rimed snowflakes a.k.a. graupel, and a few of the stronger showers can even contain small hail and produce lightning and thunder, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans. That settles down by evening and we lose the clouds after, setting up a clear and cold night as high pressure builds overhead. We start Monday out quite cold, with even some below-freezing low temperatures in the cold spots, and 30s for most of the area. With sunshine abundant in the morning, we’ll see a quick temperature rise, but it’s not going to be a warm day by any stretch with highest temps in the lower to middle 50s, even getting knocked back to below 50 along the shoreline due to a developing sea breeze. For the Boston Marathon, runners will gather in a significant morning chill, but at least we’ll have lost the wind from today by then. At the starting line it will be warming through the 40s and during the race into the 50s. As runners approach the finish line they will likely start feeling a sea breeze coming at them with a slight drop in temperature. This will especially be true for later-finishing runners. At Fenway park, it will be a dry but cool day for the midday baseball game. Hey, it could be worse, we’ve dealt with significant coastal storms for Patriots Day in the past, and this time, we’re going to miss by a handful of hours, as a coastal storm takes shape and brings a period of rain (and even some interior higher elevation snowfall) to the region Monday night and Tuesday morning. Right now I feel that the best chance of snow in the WHW forecast area is still southwestern NH and north central MA, mostly near and above 1000 feet in elevation, where some accumulation may occur. These situations are hard to forecast in the spring and we’ll just have to watch it closely. Either way, the system will begin to move away during the second half of Tuesday, and we dry out but with a lot of lingering clouds, chilly air, and a gusty wind. High pressure builds in with fair and cool but more tranquil weather Wednesday. A breeze returns Thursday but this time it will be a milder breeze ahead of an approaching cold front, which may bring some rain showers to the region as well.

TODAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon which may contain graupel and/or hail, and a slight chance of lightning/thunder. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 28-33 except 34-39 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Diminishing NW wind.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 51-58, turning cooler coast afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow with some minor accumulation interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)

A westerly (zonal) flow pattern is expected to start this period and may begin to evolve into more of a blocking pattern before the end of it. Best opportunity for wet weather comes around April 24.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27 – MAY 2)

Leaning still toward a blocking pattern with near to below normal temperatures and the potential for a longer period of unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-17-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

The third weekend of April 2022 has arrived and will be as busy weather-wise as many of us are with weekend plans, and those of us in MA, ME, and CT, it includes Monday which is the observed holiday of Patriots Day… Weather-wise there are quite a few changes packed into the next few days. Today we have a lot of clouds and a gusty southwesterly breeze ahead of a cold front, which will have a broken but fairly wide band of shower activity with it, including some embedded downpours and a slight risk of thunder, but it looks like the vast majority of the WHW forecast area gets through the main daylight hours of today without the rainfall, as it hangs back to the northwest, just skirting north central MA and southwestern NH at times. The bulk of the wet weather occurs tonight as the front slides through from west to east. A pretty sharp temperature drop even before the showers end, especially to the west and north of Boston, allows for the possibility of some mixing and even a brief change to snow showers in higher elevations of southwestern NH and northern central MA before precipitation moves out. A cold pool of air has to cross the region during Sunday, which is Easter for those celebrating it, and it will be a cooler and breezy day. Most of the sunshine will occur in the morning (though it may start cloudy across Cape Cod), before diurnal cloud development takes over. Some of these clouds can produce showers of rain and even graupel, but I don’t expect them to be widespread – just isolated to scattered, before fading later on. Look for clearing but a fairly chilly Sunday night and early Monday, which will be a factor when runners and spectators gather for the start of the Boston Marathon (Hopkinton MA), where it may be as low as the middle 30s at sunrise. As mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, there will be a steady rise in temperature from there on in the morning, eventually to the 50s, but as runners head eastward toward Boston, especially the later-finishing runners, they will probably be contending with at least a slight sea breeze by then. For anybody going to the Red Sox game at Fenway which has a late morning first pitch, expect dry weather, increasing high clouds, a temperature in the lower 50s with a light northerly breeze at first pitch, a high temp of about 55 middle innings, and back to the lower 50s with a sea breeze by the later innings. The aforementioned clouds will be increasing ahead of an approaching low pressure system, and while this will not bother outdoor activities during the day, it will bring us a shield of rain moving in at night and through about the first half of the day on Tuesday. The track of the low pressure area will be just southeast of our region, and with chilly air already in place and cold air above us, some of the interior higher elevations may see a period of mixed rain/snow or even straight snow with the system, resulting in the potential for some accumulation (more on this as we get closer to it). Later Tuesday, with that system moving away, expect breaking clouds but chilly air with a gusty wind. High pressure moves in by Wednesday with fair but still cool weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy but occasional intervals of sunshine. Slight chance of brief rain showers north central MA and southwestern NH late morning on. Highs 60-67, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely including a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, ending west to east overnight possibly as a mix with sleet and/or snow showers in the highest elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA where a brief coating could occur on coldest surfaces. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Early clouds especially southeastern MA giving way to sun, then sun/cloud mix late morning on with isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers which may include graupel in isolated locations. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, variable under 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

Westerly (zonal) flow pattern. A trough and frontal system brings the threat of rain showers to the region later April 21 and/or early April 22. April 23-24 weekend looks split with a cool/dry start and a potentially wetter finish before a push of warmer air may arrive to end this forecast period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26 – MAY 1)

The hints of blocking that were present on recent guidance are not as prominent on the current guidance but given the time of year, I’ll not count out the possibility. This leads to a low confidence forecast with 1 or 2 periods of unsettled weather and variable temperatures, to be fine-tuned in the future.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-16-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)

The next 5 days will feature a lot of changing weather, and at this time of year hearing that can be agonizing, given that we have opening day at Fenway Park for the Red Sox today, a weekend, then Patriots Day aka Marathon Monday around these parts. In other words, there are a lot of events and plans outside over the first 4 of the next 5 days, and we all know how hard it is to pull that many “outdoor days” in at this time of year with the weather cooperating. Will it cooperate all the way through? Not exactly. But you will see by reading on that we will do just about as good as we can possibly expect, despite having to go through some changes. It looks like our next real storm threat holds off until we get across the finish line of the 4 days – yup, that was on purpose. 😉 Today, we have clouds departing behind our frontal system that brought us some wet weather last night, and today turns out to be quite a nice day with an area of high pressure sliding across the Mid Atlantic States with an extension up into New England. Many times April baseball at Fenway can be met with a chilly easterly wind, but this won’t be the case today as we will have a wind shifting from north to west during the course of the day, and fairly mild air in place, with plenty of sunshine for the game (first pitch 2 p.m.). The weekend will hold the greatest change, but the timing of the rain threat will be fairly good for daytime outdoor plans. As high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast we’ll have a mild southwesterly air flow on Saturday with some early cloudiness as a weak warm front goes through, and a gusty breeze during the day as a cold front approaches, trailing from low pressure heading for the St. Lawrence Valley. The front will be moving slowly enough so that we should get through most of the daylight hours without much of a wet weather threat, with just a few isolated to scattered rain showers (possibly a thunderstorm) skirting the northwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area in north central MA and southwestern NH. It will be Saturday evening when this frontal boundary will make its way eastward and across the region with more widespread shower activity. The thunderstorm threat will be limited by the loss of daytime heating. This system will keep on moving so that we are clearing out in time for Easter Sunday, although the sun may not initially be visible for sunrise services as there still could be some cloudiness lingering in the eastern sky to start the day. The balance of the day will feature sunshine and passing clouds, a few of which could release a brief rain shower, but not worth cancelling any outdoor plans over. The “issue” for Sunday is that it will be noticeably cooler than Saturday, along with a gusty breeze – enough to blow plastic eggs around – so keep that in mind. Winds will settle down Sunday night as high pressure moves over the region, but this will set up quite the chilly night and as runners gather at the starting line in Hopkinton MA for the Boston Marathon, the temperature will be hovering only a small handful of degrees above freezing (brr!). But with plenty of April sunshine it will warm quickly along the route (and elsewhere) into and through the 40s and into the 50s. Also, another game at Fenway Park starts in the late morning and while it will be a nice day, it won’t be nearly as mild as Friday. Also both Fenway and at least eastern parts of the marathon route could see a sea breeze develop by midday, so the later innings of the baseball game and later runners of the marathon will likely have to contend with that. During Monday afternoon we’ll also see an increase in high cloudiness ahead of a storm system, set to impact the region with rain and some wind Monday night into Tuesday. In fact enough cold air may be around so that the higher elevations of central MA and southern NH could see some snow for part of this event – something to watch as we get closer to it. The early call is that this system will be progressive enough so that we’ll already start to see a drying process and maybe some partial clearing before Tuesday is over – but that’s quite a ways off and there is plenty of time to fine-tune that part of the forecast…

TODAY: Early clouds especially eastern MA & RI otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early clouds, then partly sunny mid morning to mid afternoon. Mostly cloudy later in the day with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely evening including a slight chance of a thunderstorm eastern CT, central MA, and southern NH. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Early morning clouds especially eastern areas, then sun and passing clouds. Slight chance of a brief passing rain shower. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, variable under 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)

Westerly (zonal) flow pattern. Unsettled weather threats favoring April 21 & 24. Variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-30)

Early hints of some blocking trying to set up with temperatures near to below normal and additional unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-15-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)

A complex weather system will be with us today as we have a frontal boundary bisecting the region, setting up a significant temperature contrast, and an approaching frontal boundary from the west as well. There’s not a lot of change in the thought process outlined in yesterday’s discussion about the significant temperature spread from northeast to southwest today as well as the few showers around early today and the more significant shower and thunderstorm threat this evening. That threat looks strongest west of our area, but some of the downpours and storms can certainly make their way into the WHW forecast area as evening arrives, though they should be losing punch as they move east as they feel the influence of more stable air in place here. We’re still looking decent for Friday with drier weather. If you are in areas that are cool today, Friday will turn out milder. If you are in the warmest areas today, Friday will turn out a little cooler. Either way, Friday will still be a nice spring day after a slow start, and the afternoon continues to look great for Fenway baseball… Our weekend, a 3-day weekend for some, holds one significant weather change. We’ll have a mild Saturday but low pressure to our northwest will send a disturbance and cold front this way and a round or 2 of showers and even a few thunderstorms can visit the region, with timing right now looking like late afternoon or evening. I think Saturday’s outdoor daytime plans should be generally ok, although there will likely be a gusty breeze. Once that cold front passes by Saturday night, it sets up a cooler and breezy Sunday and just enough cold air aloft so that we’ll have some fair weather clouds and perhaps a brief sprinkle of rain – but most of the day looks dry. Monday looks cool but more tranquil at this time as high pressure controls, but we’ll start to see high clouds arriving as the day goes on ahead of the next unsettled weather threat. It looks dry for both the Boston Marathon and the traditional late morning first-pitch Red Sox game at Fenway Park.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-57 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 66-73 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely this evening including the chance of thunderstorms, especially west of Boston. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind N up to 10 MPH in the morning becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny mid morning to mid afternoon. Partly sunny later in the day with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring areas west of Boston. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight chance of a brief passing sprinkle of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)

Continuing to watch a storm system for rain and even possible higher elevation mix/snow early in the period. Next unsettled weather threat around April 22 in a somewhat active pattern with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-29)

Continued near to below normal temperatures with somewhat active weather – a couple threats of unsettled weather seem quite likely.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-14-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)

A warm front approaches today with a considerable amount of cloud cover, but not really a bad day at all – not too windy, fairly mild for mid April. It’s tonight when we see more cloudiness and some chance of light rainfall as the front enters the vicinity. It still looks like that boundary will come to a halt, somewhat bisecting our region with much of eastern MA and southern NH being on the cool side Thursday while to the southwest it warms nicely – a set-up not atypical of spring at all. Meanwhile, the low pressure parenting the boundary will also be sending another front eastward out of NY/PA into New England at night, and a pretty solid area of thunderstorms will have formed with it, and push into and eventually across our region during the night, weakening as it does so while running into increasingly stable air. However, it still can be good for some downpours and rumbles of thunder. Friday, it all moves off to the east and we get into at first a northerly flow behind a developing low pressure wave, and then eventually a westerly flow as the day goes on – turning out to be fair and rather mild. This is good news for opening day at Fenway Park. Low pressure still has to move eastward and pass north of our region, and will do so during Saturday. Somewhat similar to the set-up we had last week, we’ll find another disturbance moving along the eastern side of that larger low, and a cold front will swing its way across New England later Saturday. Ahead of it we get a mild day, and how dry it stays during the day will depend on the timing of the front and the showers (and possible thunderstorms) it triggers. For now I’m optimistic we make it through most of the day rain-free, but if you are making weekend plans, keep in mind this shower threat. For Sunday (Easter for those celebrating), we end up with a nice dry day, but the trade-off will be a cool breeze that arrives behind the cold front…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-57 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 66-73 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely including the chance of thunderstorms, especially west of Boston. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind N up to 10 MPH in the morning becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms especially late-day. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)

April 18 (Patriots Day for ME, MA, and CT), “Marathon Monday”, and the traditional late morning first-pitch Red Sox home game, and the weather looks just fine! A little bit on the cooler side, especially in the morning, but we are looking at high pressure bringing fair weather, although we’ll see increasing high cloudiness well in advance of our next unsettled threat. While this is day 6, the set-up we should have probably can allow for a sea breeze so you can take this into account if you plan to be at Fenway or along the Boston Marathon route closer to the city – obviously too soon for timing and details but putting the idea out there now for advance planning reasons, and will fine-tune. Looking at the threat of rain and even interior higher elevation snow for April 19 and another potential unsettled weather threat by the end of this period as we stay in an active weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-28)

Still low confidence on the outlook but staying with the idea of a zonal flow upper pattern and temperatures more likely to be on the cooler side of normal as the chilly air from Canada has the edge on its battle with the warmer air to the south. A couple of unsettled weather threats likely result from this battle zone and disturbances coming along the jet stream.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-13-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

Step 1: Try to bring these 5 days into a little more focus. With so much going on, the time of year, and touchy guidance, it’s a task to sort things in enough detail for a useful forecast, but here we go, with the process to be repeated for many days to come it seems. Today, a warm front went through overnight and early this morning, and a cold front will be coming along in short order – late morning and midday. Until around noon or so we run the chance for rain showers across the WHW forecast area. Ironically behind the cold front is when we’ll actually warm up as we combine a drying west to northwest wind, down sloping off hills / mountains, with higher April sun angle as the sky clears out. But tonight somewhat cooler air will be more felt, especially as a brisk breeze continues to blow. Wednesday, we’ll already see increasing clouds ahead of our next weather system, as its warm front approaches. This system is to be more complex than the one passing now. The parent low pressure area will be maturing and it will already be a redevelopment of this system that moves through the Great Lakes and stacks up with an upper low between there and Hudson Bay in Canada. When this happens we usually see an arcing frontal system way out ahead of the parent low, in occlusion mode, and that’s what we will see moving into our region. Will the warm front make it into southern New England? Yes, most likely. Will it make it all the way across the WHW forecast area? Probably not. I figure a cut-off zone somewhere around the MA South Shore to perhaps northern Worcester County of MA or southwestern NH Thursday, with a resultant big temperature contrast from northeast to southwest across the region, as well as a lot of clouds, some drizzle possible on the cool side of the boundary where wind will be coming off the Atlantic, and then an increasing chance of rain showers west to east later in the day and at night as the then occluding frontal system (cold front catching up to warm front) moves in and passes through. A weak wave of low pressure that forms on that front as it slowly goes by may delay our improvement on Friday, but it will eventually turn out to be a nice day as we get into a drying westerly air flow, especially during the afternoon, just in time for opening day at Fenway Park. While we have that nicer weather, the original low pressure system that causes the Thursday’s conglomeration will still be over interior southeastern Canada, but far enough away not to bother us with any unsettled weather. This system will still have an impact on the start of our weekend, however, as it the entire circulation will help spawn another disturbance that will drag its cold front into our region by later Saturday, with the chance for rain showers. While timing on this is iffy, we should be able to get through at least part of Saturday without that threat.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers especially late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

Step 2 is to try to make a little more sense of this 5-day period, and right now it looks like the front that goes by later Saturday will set us up for a dry, breezy, and cool Sunday April 17, which is Easter for those celebrating. Next day, April 18, Patriots Day, Marathon Monday, morning first-pitch Sox game, is a traditionally busy New England day with weather always under a microscope. At that time I believe we’ll see dry weather to start, but it may not stay that way until day’s end. It also looks like we’ll be on the cooler side of normal for temperatures, and I wonder if by nighttime we even see some interior higher elevation snowfall with the precipitation that threatens with the arrival and passage of low pressure. Many details to iron out on this. Leaning toward drier weather for the middle and end of this period, but may have to watch for a quick disturbance / frontal system April 20-21 with briefly unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Step 3 is to be cautious on the outlook this far in advance given questionable model guidance and just the time of year in general – volatile spring in the Northeast. Still leaning toward the upper level west to east (zonal flow) pattern but with the tendency for us to be on the cooler side. However, warmer air will reside not far away leaning any temperatures forecast vulnerable this far in advance. Being near the battle zone leaves me more confident we’ll endure a couple periods of unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-12-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 11-15)

There are a lot of things to sort out for the next several days as we head toward the half way point of April, so let’s get to it! First, a bubble of high pressure brings fair weather to our region today, with lots of sunshine – a nice change after several days of unsettled weather under an upper low. But the fair weather is short-lived. A low pressure area heading eastward, destined to pass to our north, will bring its warm front across the region late this evening with some light rainfall, with low temperatures occurring in the late evening before holding steady or even rising a little overnight in the warm sector. This low’s cold front will quickly swing across the region from west to east with a few additional rain showers until about midday Tuesday, and after its passage we will see a return to sunshine. As can be the case around here, it will be noticeably warmer behind the cold front as we will be experiencing atmospheric conditions that allow a significant warming at the surface – a drying westerly wind and full, high-angle sun, after not having the benefit of either while we are in the warm sector during the pre-dawn and early-morning hours. Tuesday night we do get a delivery of cooler air both from the normal exit of daytime heating from the lower atmosphere as well as advection of cooler air on a northwesterly breeze. Wednesday will turn out cooler than Tuesday, especially along the coast, as we quickly lose the gusty land breeze in favor of a variable to onshore breeze ahead of an approaching warm front from the next low pressure system. Clouds return during Wednesday, with an eventual rain threat as the front nears later in the day and at night. The forecast dilemma I have about this next system is trying to determine whether or not that warm front gets across the entire WHW forecast area. If yes, we break into warm air Thursday for several hours. If no, we’re rather cool, cloudier, and possibly wet. If somewhere in between, well, then we end up with one of those big temperature ranges that New England can be famous for in the springtime, along with a variety of weather ranging from overcast to sunny, depending on where you are. Right now, my leaning is somewhat optimistic, in that we get the front to come through at least most of the region for at least a few hours, so my forecast will reflect this, leaving the possibility open that northeastern MA and southeastern NH don’t get quite that lucky – and then the forecast will likely need adjustment ahead. Friday, we’ll be back into a mild westerly air flow as the larger parent low pressure area goes by to our north, and this looks like it will be accompanied by dry weather, which is great news if you’re a baseball (especially Red Sox) fan – opening day at Fenway Park!

TODAY: Sunny – some high clouds appearing later in the day from the west. Highs 58-65, but turning cooler in some coastal areas by mid-late afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH this morning, diminishing to under 10 MPH and shifting to SW this afternoon except for local sea breezes developing in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Light rain at times late evening and overnight. Lows 44-51. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain by later in the day. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may stay E in some southern NH and northeastern MA areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 16-20)

A lot of uncertainty for the April 16-18 period which for some is Easter weekend and also leads to Patriots Day often known as “Marathon Monday”. There are indications of a significant cool-down and eventual unsettled weather, which may even include some higher elevation snow. Model guidance is variable and inconsistent and is not of much help now. Fine-tuning will be required. Looks fair and quieter toward April 19-20.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 21-25)

No big changes in my thought process for this forecast period. Low confidence forecast leans toward an upper level pattern that is mostly a zonal (west to east) flow, but with cooler than average temperatures winning out but still with warmer air not that far away. Battle zone means a couple additional unsettled weather episodes.