C-19 Chat Post – 5-6-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

A blocking pattern will control our weather for the next several days. High pressure at the surface brings fair and mild weather today, but a storm system to the south gets close enough to result in an easterly air flow Friday and the weekend, with cloudiness and some rain potential for southern areas, favoring the South Coast, later Friday and especially Saturday. Cautiously optimistic that a southward push of high pressure clears us out again during Sunday and through Monday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast, Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

May sit in battle zone between warmer high pressure to the south and cool high pressure in Canada, leaving us vulnerable to additional unsettled weather and variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-5-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

Low pressure moves through the region today, its center passing near or just south of the South Coast along a frontal boundary. This brings periods of rain and some embedded heavier showers, maybe even the risk of some thunder. But when we measure the rainfall, most of the region will have had modest amounts when it’s done. This isn’t all that helpful since we do need rain to keep up the water supply for the coming warm season, as well as put the brakes on fire season, which still goes on for a little longer. Additionally, despite blocking in the pattern, we end up mainly dry in the days ahead as it still looks after high pressure delivers nice weather Thursday, low pressure passes by but too far to the south for any appreciable rainfall late this week (Friday-Saturday). Another high pressure push from Canada should ensure dry weather for Mothers Day on Sunday, but it will remain cool due to an east to northeast air flow.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog evening. Lows 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle near the coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Not only is the forecast less certain because of how far into the future we look here, but also because it looks like we’ll be in another springtime battle between warm high pressure to the south and cool high pressure in eastern Canada. While some guidance paints a picture of very warm to even early hot weather, we can be vulnerable to much cooler shots of air from eastern Canada via the Gulf of Maine, including the classic back-door cold fronts. We should always be on the lookout for those at this time of year as guidance often doesn’t see them coming that many days in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-4-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

Weak low pressure exits and weak high pressure tries to build in today. We’ll lose the shower threat we have this morning but keep the clouds, with only a few breaks of sunshine possible at times later. A frontal boundary sitting just to our south will provide a pathway for low pressure on Wednesday, with cool air and period of rain. We get a break Thursday after this system exits and we see a stronger push of Canadian high pressure. With the air behind Wednesday’s low coming from a region that has had more sun, we’ll end up with a much milder day with just some coastal sea breeze activity keeping it cooler there relative to inland locations. Later this week we’ll be eyeing another strung out low pressure area to our southwest which will approach the region, bringing clouds back during Friday. My feeling at this time is that the low center will remain far enough south through Saturday to keep its rain away, but we’ll probably end up with a lot of clouds due to an easterly flow, which as you also know at this time of year means cool air as well.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with scattered showers possible. Mostly cloudy with a few episodes of sun possible late morning / afternoon. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, strongest near the South Coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the morning, becoming variable with afternoon coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle near the coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

It looks like we’ll be under the influence of a blocking pattern starting with low pressure far enough south to keep its rain away then high pressure in control with dry weather continuing. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Hints in here of a weakening / break-down of the blocking pattern and a more zonal (west to east) flow developing. This would mean progressive systems bringing up and down temperatures and a few chances for unsettled weather, but plenty of dry weather between.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-3-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

A warm front approaches today with thickening cloud cover and eventually some light rainfall in the area by this evening or tonight – not a big deal, but that front won’t make it in, and we’ll stay on the cool side of the boundary. Weak high pressure makes a feeble and generally failed attempt to clear us out Tuesday, so going with clouds to dominate, but no rainfall threat. Low pressure looks like it makes a run for regions just northwest of us Wednesday, but wait, it suddenly decides to bubble along the frontal boundary to our south and we stay north of its track with a cool easterly air flow and periodic rainfall. Finally a stronger push from high pressure takes place as that system departs by Thursday, which turns out to be a dry and milder day, though still somewhat cooler along the coastline. When we get to Friday, there’s significant inconsistency and disagreement in model guidance, with some outcomes ranging from dry and and mild to dry/breezy/cool to another low pressure system moving in with another wet weather threat. I’m between scenarios #2 and #3, leaning toward the unsettled side of things with clouds returning and some threat of rain, especially for southern areas. There will be fine-tuning to come…

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few glimpses of sun possible. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain, favoring southern areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We remain most vulnerable to cloudy and occasional wet weather in the May 7-8 depending on how far north low pressure is. Fair weather should follow this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

Similar pattern should continue as we approach and reach the half-way point of May, leaving us vulnerable to some unsettled weather episodes and variable temperatures that lean to slightly below normal. The confidence in this part of the forecast is fairly low though. There is still a fairly large spread in medium range guidance and one can make a case for any of these being potentially correct.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-2-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 1-5)

High pressure will bring us splendid weather for the first day of May today, with 100% sunshine, light wind, but a significant temperature spread from shoreline to inland locations, very typical of spring time in New England. Enjoy today especially since the timing allows it to be on a day off for many. The weather “goes downhill” for several days following, starting with the approach of a warm front Monday bringing clouds and an evening rain threat. But that front never gets through the region, first being held back as a wave of low pressure forms on the front and passes to the south of us Monday night, then staying down there as a little bubble of high pressure builds across northern New England Tuesday. Another low pressure area approaches Tuesday night and passes by during Wednesday, and while guidance shows what looks like a low that wants to pass just northwest of our area, it won’t, as high pressure in eastern Canada keeps the boundary just to the south and the low follows it, redeveloping or “wobbling” along the boundary until its passing to our south and out to sea, bringing wet weather for Wednesday. Finally by Thursday we should get a push of drier but cool air from Canada for a break in the cloudiness and occasional wet weather of the first part of the week…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 coastline, 63-70 inland, mildest interior valleys. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few glimpses of sun possible. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 6-10)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We remain most vulnerable to cloudy and occasional wet weather in the May 6-8 period before drier/brighter weather later in the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 11-15)

Similar pattern should continue as we approach the half-way point of May, but the overall pattern should weaken somewhat and the appearance of more high pressure to the south of New England means that the warm-up potential is a little stronger, but also leaves us vulnerable to additional unsettled weather due to the boundary between that and the cooler high pressure in Canada. No chance on finding any day-to-day details this far in advance though. Check back for that!

C-19 Chat Post – 5-1-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Last day of April – last day of impact from low pressure spinning offshore. The wind will be down from yesterday but it’s still to be cool with some clouds rotating around the back side of the low pressure area in our sky. Sunday, high pressure builds in with a very lovely day to start the month of May. Monday, low pressure in the Great Lakes stretches its way toward New England via New York, and as we often see in a pattern when things are not moving rapidly, this system gets pulled apart with the old low hanging back and its frontal system stretching out and trying to form a new low as it passes by. It will partially fail in that atmospheric endeavor but not enough to spare us from a cloudy sky by later Monday along with a risk of some light rainfall that night. I expect that the new low that does form, a fairly small and weak one, will exit the area early Tuesday as the old original low moves away via eastern Canada, with a little bubble of high pressure moving in to improve our weather during that day. But things at that time will start to move a little more quickly as the pattern evolves into a block that features high pressure in Canada and low pressure systems moving eastward to the south of that, so that our next unsettled weather system is already moving in Tuesday night into Wednesday with more rain.

TODAY: A lobe of high clouds dims the sun north to south this morning. Sunshine and passing clouds this afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clearing. Highs 60-67. Wind variable becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We’re vulnerable to unsettled weather especially in the late May 5 to early early May 8 time frame. Doesn’t mean clouds and precipitation the entire time. It means we’re vulnerable to unsettled weather. Some of this activity may stay to the south. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)

Similar pattern, weak blocking favoring cooler than normal temperatures. Must watch systems coming from the west, but they may be weak and/or pass to the south keeping us on the drier side.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

On we go with the upper low spinning about just to our east, keeping us breezy and cool for the last couple days of April. These conditions mean that brush fire danger will be on the high side as well. High pressure nudges eastward to bring a fair and milder day to start off May and end the weekend. A weak low pressure area arrives from the west later Monday with some threat of wet weather, but this should move out on Tuesday with fair weather returning.

TODAY: Intervals of sun & clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clearing. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)

Unsettled weather with the passage of low pressure and a frontal system May 4, with another episode of unsettled weather later May 5 into May 6. Cooling trend expected.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)

Similar pattern, weak blocking favoring cooler than normal temperatures and a tendency to be on the dry side.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-29-2022