DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

We’re still immersed in an early spring cold-snap today, but we’ll be seeing it come to an end soon after one more gusty and chilly day today, albeit with more sun than yesterday, and one cold night tonight. Clouds move in Wednesday ahead of a warm front from a low pressure system heading for the Great Lakes. The low will move through the Northeast Wednesday night through Friday. Precipitation generated by the approaching warm front can be in the form of snow and/or sleet Wednesday night as the atmosphere will still be cold. Eventually, the warm front should push through on Thursday, but the low’s cold front should not be that far behind and will bring rain showers as it moves in from the west later Thursday and Thursday night, into early Friday before it pushes offshore. Friday itself will still be fairly mild ahead of a secondary cold front which will usher in cooler and drier air for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)

Fair weather dominates April 3-5 though a weak disturbance may bring some clouds and brief rain around April 4. Better chance for unsettled weather toward the end of the period (middle of next week).

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)

Early and late period stand better chances of unsettled weather in a somewhat active pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Upper level low pressure, a piece of “polar vortex” brings us a cold air mass to start out this week. Snow showers are ushering in the coldest air for parts of the region as we start the day today, and there may be a few additional snow flurries during the day as we see a gusty northwesterly wind, lots of clouds, limited sun, and high temperatures that will challenge record low maximum temperatures for the day. Surface high pressure will still be west of us on Tuesday, and with low pressure spinning over eastern Canada we’ll continue in a chilly northwesterly air flow, though it will be up a few to several degrees over today, and with more sunshine at a much higher sun angle in late March it will feel nicer despite the breeze and chill. High pressure moves over us Tuesday night which will be quite cold again as a clear sky and lighter wind allow good radiating. Clouds move in Wednesday ahead of a warm front from a low pressure system heading for the Great Lakes. Much like a system we saw recently, this broad low pressure circulation will move through the Northeast late this week. Precipitation generated by the approaching warm front can be in the form of snow and/or sleet Wednesday night as the atmosphere will still be cold. Eventually, the warm front should push through on Thursday, but the low’s cold front should not be that far behind and will bring rain showers as it moves in from the west later Thursday and Thursday night, into early Friday before it pushes offshore. But the air behind that front is not really going to be that cold initially, so Friday itself will be on the mild side to start April, with a sun / cloud mix and still a lingering rain shower possible.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, few intervals of sun. Snow showers with minor accumulation around early morning, especially southern NH / eastern MA, and a chance of a passing snow flurry at any other time during the day. Highs 29-36, coldest in the higher elevations southwestern NH / central MA. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)

High pressure builds in with fair weather but cooler for the April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 then another precipitation threat at the end of the period, but confidence on that part of the forecast remains low.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)

Forecast confidence remains low heading toward mid April too, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring the early part of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)

The last 5 days of March will contain a variety of weather. Let’s sort it out. Upper level low pressure spins over the region while drifting eastward during the next few days. Today, other than some patchy cloudiness near the MA South Coast and back over the hills of north central MA to southwestern NH, the balance of the region has dawned with a clear sky, but this won’t last, as cold air aloft will help trigger diurnal cloud development and those clouds will become dominant by midday onward. Today’s atmosphere is not quite as unstable as yesterday’s, so the chance of convective shower development is lower, but some of them that do form while being mainly rain showers may also contain wet snow and even graupel (rimed snowflakes). We’ll be cooler than yesterday as well, but the real cold air arrives tonight, with a cold front, which may bring a few snow showers, then a blast of blustery weather through Monday, a day that will feature a lot of clouds and maybe a few snow flurries, and also have a wind chill as high temps in the 30s often feel like 20s or even upper 10s at times. Tuesday, we ease the wind and lose a lot of the clouds but keep a chill as a northwesterly air flow continues between high pressure to our west and low pressure over eastern Canada. The high center will finally nudge eastward enough to allow the wind to diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday, but a warm front will be approaching on Wednesday and we’ll see the cloud cover increase from that. With enough lingering cold around, this front may generate frozen precipitation for parts of the region Wednesday night. I’m cautiously optimistic that the front will push through for a milder day Thursday, but this will come with a price which will be rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west – an unsettled end to the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably to mostly cloudy midday on. Isolated showers of rain and possible graupel and/or wet snow afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of passing snow flurries. Highs 34-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)

Upper level low pressure is expected to cross the region from west to east over the first few days of April with a transition from mild to cooler, but the greatest chance of any rainfall on April 1 followed by a drier April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 but confidence on that part of the forecast is much lower.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)

Forecast confidence remains low, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring April 6-8.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-27-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)

An upper level low pressure system will be the primary driver of our weather over the next few days. This means that our weekend, while unsettled, won’t be anything near a wash-out (or snow-out), but we can and likely will see the development of showers and even some thunderstorms (with possible hail) later today, and the redevelopment of some rain and possible graupel showers and eventually snow showers later Sunday as a trend to colder weather progresses. That cold will arrive in force Sunday night into early next week. Monday will still feature some instability so that we can see a few snow flurries in the region from passing clouds despite plenty of bright sun, and a wind that will make it feel more like January at times despite March’s high sun angle. The coldest temperatures of this stretch likely occur with Tuesday morning’s lows, with a modest recovery to several degrees over Monday’s highs that day, but with lots of sun and a little less wind helping to make the recovery seem a little greater. By Wednesday, while still in the chilly air, we’ll have lighter wind as the low pressure that had been impacting us forever finally lifts away, but just in time for a warm front to approach with increasing clouds and an evening precipitation threat which may include some of the frozen variety…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mid to late afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, with the potential for brief downpours and even some small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a lingering rain shower possible early, then partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers midday and afternoon, with late-day showers potentially containing graupel. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/sleet/rain at night. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

There is a lot of uncertainty in this period and obviously impossible for details this far out, but right now the scenario I see as most likely is low pressure passing northwest of our region March 31 with a warm front struggling to move through, and unsettled weather for the final day of the month, and then starting out unsettled and cool with upper level low pressure in the region April 1-2 (much like our current pattern), with hope for a brief warm-up and fair weather to finish the first weekend of April before we eye more unsettled weather by the end of the period. A lot of fine-tuning will be needed for this forecast in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)

Forecast confidence remains rather low, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring the middle of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)

Surface low pressure moves away today, but upper level low pressure is going to take its time crossing the Northeast from west to east during the next 5 days, during which time you’ll see a transition from mild to cold, with a few episodes of unsettled weather, and finally some dry weather. Today, as the storm of yesterday departs, the air mass is fairly mild, so a drying westerly wind will make for a nice day as we break the clouds for more sun, but never totally lose the clouds as the air above turns colder. This may help pop a few rain showers later today to early this evening. Saturday, it will be slightly cooler but still relatively mild at the surface, but colder still above us, making the atmosphere a little more unstable, so by later in the day a few more showers and even a thunderstorms may pop up, with the possibility of brief downpours and even small hail in some of them. Sunday, we continue the downward trend in temperatures both surface and aloft, and that atmosphere will still be unstable enough to potentially produce a few diurnal showers of rain, and by late-day and evening graupel and snow showers may occur as it is finally cold enough. When the coldest air arrives early next week, we’ll have a gusty wind and the chance of a few snow showers Monday as it is still somewhat unstable, then finally dry weather with plenty of sunshine by Tuesday.

TODAY: Clouds, patchy fog, and a potential sprinkle or some drizzle early, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of a rain shower by late afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A mid to late afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible, with the potential for brief downpours and even some small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers midday and afternoon, with late-day showers potentially containing graupel. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

Warm front approaches March 30 with clouds moving in, and a chance of rain at night that may start as snow and/or sleet for some locations. May get a quick warm-up March 31 before cold front comes by and returns colder air for the first couple days of April with some unsettled weather as well, and then lower confidence of dry weather and maybe a brief warm up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)

Continued low confidence forecast. Up and down temperatures, leaning toward cooler than normal, with episodes of unsettled weather between Canadian cold and southeastern US warmth.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)

Low pressure out in the Great Lakes has occluded and its frontal system swings out and around to the Northeast, with us on the cool side of a frontal boundary, which is where we will stay as the low redevelops at its frontal triple-point and that low travels northeastward just east of Cape Cod tonight and early Friday. Most of the sleet and any pockets of freezing rain are pretty much done with over interior locations and from here its just rain, in two main surges, one this morning and another one this evening and tonight to early Friday morning. Some thunderstorms may even take place from very late this afternoon into tonight over RI and eastern MA as the atmosphere will be rather unstable. Once the newly developed low moves beyond our latitude Friday morning our wind will switch to westerly and we’ll dry out, and also warm up as the air mass behind this system is not cold at all initially. It will not be until we have upper level low pressure cross the Northeast over the weekend and a trough and a front go by, with some unsettled weather, that we will see colder air finally work in, and once it does, you’ll feel it. Monday will remind you of winter with its gusty breeze and below normal temperatures, creating wind chills in the vicinity of freezing despite bright late March sunshine.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of rain, steadiest this morning, returning to RI and eastern MA late-day including the chance of thunder. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Rain likely with a chance of thunder, especially RI and eastern MA. Lows 38-45. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain and patchy fog, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers evening. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

Dry with below normal temperatures March 29. Back into a batttle zone between cold to the north and warmth to the south with unsettled weather in the March 30 to April 1 time frame. Fair weather may return late period, but low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)

A very low confidence forecast here. Likely some up and down in the temperature, but leaning toward cooler overall with additional unsettled weather. Medium range guidance is conflicted and we know it will still be cold in Canada and warm in the southeastern US, so likely some sort of battle goes on.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-24-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

High pressure tries to hang on today and does so enough to start us out with sunshine and lighter wind, but the sun will lose the battle eventually to advancing clouds as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low will redevelop to its southeast and move up over New England on Thursday, bringing us a rainy day, but this rain will start in the pre-dawn hours as sleet for some areas north and west of Boston, especially interior higher elevations from Worcester County to southwestern NH where a coating of sleet can occur before the rain takes over. The system will begin to pull away Friday, and the wind, which will be off the ocean during the storm’s passage, will shift back to regional land breeze, meaning we will start to dry out and be milder Friday, but we won’t see complete clearing as upper level low pressure will be overhead. We’re going to be dealing with something similar as upper level low pressure takes all weekend to move through our region, along with a cooling trend, so it won’t be a stellar weekend – no washout, but slightly unsettled with a few rain and even snow showers (later in the weekend) as we see that downward trend in temperature…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight but may begin as a period of sleet north and west of Boston, especially interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH in coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A touch of rain and/or drizzle with areas of fog possible early, then a chance of a passing rain shower later. Highs 52-59. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers, even mix/snow showers possible mainly interior higher elevations. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Dry with below normal temperatures March 28-29 as the cold air from Canada wins the battle. We get back into the battle zone between that cold and warmer air to the south in the March 30 to April 1 time frame with additional unsettled weather likely being the result.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up on the first weekend of April with warmer air winning the next battle (low confidence forecast though) before we’re back in the unsettled battle zone yet again.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-23-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)

A dry, windy, and cool day is ours for today as a ridge of high pressure sits to the west and a deepening low spins across the Canadian Maritimes. These conditions also increase the risk of the rapid spread of brush fires as we have rather dry ground and are in the pre leaf-out stage of early spring – basically our fire season here in New England. The wind will relax tonight as the high pressure area moves closer and then over the region. Wednesday will be dry during the daytime but we’ll see clouds moving in ahead of an approaching low pressure system which is set to bring us unsettled weather starting Wednesday night and lasting into early Friday. This system will arrive with just enough cold air in place that we may see some snow and/or sleet over interior higher elevations before rain takes over for the remainder of the system’s duration, which will be until sometime early on Friday before its redeveloped low center moves out of the region. However, upper level low pressure over the region will limit any clearing and keep us rather unsettled into the start of the weekend as well.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight but may begin as a period of sleet and/or snow interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog early, then breaking clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)

Upper level low pressure will still be over the region along with colder air with a chance of rain and snow showers March 27. Another disturbance brings the chance of some precipitation before the end of March. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up in the first few days of April as the pattern may re-adjust briefly, but this remains a low confidence outlook as some of our medium range guidance continues to show cooler and somewhat unsettled weather.