DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

The cold is back! After a one-day break we’re back to the chill from Canada, and this time it will hang around for several days. We’ll at least enjoy dry weather with the cold for the next couple of days, but keep an eye out early today for icy patches on untreated surfaces in any areas where melt-water yesterday was not able to dry up before the temperature dropped last night. Friday, we see the clouds back along with the chance of some snow shower activity as another cold front moves into the area. While this is going on, a storm will be developing off the US Southeast Coast, destined to make a rapid run north northeastward just off the East Coast while rapidly intensifying, with cold air in place here. Yes, a pretty classic set-up for a significant snow (or mostly snow) event for us along with lots of wind. We won’t have a blocking set-up this time. Any wobble or wiggle in the storm’s path would be caused by its own upper level set-up. We’ll also be looking at coastal impacts because of combined wind and astronomical high tides as we head for a new moon (which occurs early next week on February 1). What’s left to figure out is the exact track of the low and the orientation of the precipitation shield (banding, dry slots, etc.) as to helping us figure out snowfall accumulation by numbers. I know that some maps are already out there, but I’ll probably make my first broad accumulation estimate in the comments section later today, and it will definitely be on tomorrow’s blog. I will see that a scenario of double-digit snowfall for a good part of the WHW forecast area is definitely on the table for a system that arrives Friday night and continues through Saturday. By Sunday, we’ll see improved weather and it will be a good day for post-storm cleanup as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +3 interior low elevations, 4-9 most locations, 10-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant snow accumulation expected. Slight chance of a snow/rain mix Cape Cod. Highs 18-25 except 25-32 South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off evening. Clearing overnight. Blowing and drifting snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

A dry and seasonably cold end to January. February likely starts with a temperature moderation and a couple periods of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Overall milder pattern but variable temperatures expected. Being near the border of mild to the south and cold to the north means episodes of unsettled weather are more possible.

C-19 Chat Post – January 26 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

The last bits of light snow are exciting Cape Ann and a mix of snow/rain are departing via Cape Cod as we have now seen a warm front pass by. A general coating to 1 inch of snow fell during the night ahead of the front. Today we get a relatively mild day before a cold front comes through later and returns the cold of mid winter to our region for the rest of this week. High pressure will bring fair weather for midweek, but later in the week things start to change. A disturbances approaches Friday with an increase in clouds and perhaps a few snow showers, and as this happens low pressure will be taking place off the US Southeast Coast. This system will have pretty deep roots to the south including Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture, and all signs point to a rapidly moving and intensifying low pressure system making a run up along and likely off the US East Coast. This would likely bring a significant snow/wind event to our region Friday night into Saturday, the amount of both determined by the exact storm track.

TODAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with snow likely morning, tapering off during the afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Fair, cold end to January. Unsettled weather to start February then fair and colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Milder trend, additional unsettled weather at times.

C-19 Chat Post – January 25 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)

A bubble of high pressure will bring fair and cold weather to our area today. A small low pressure area cutting north of the region brings a warm front toward us tonight and through the area early Tuesday with some light snow except mix/rain South Coast, followed by a brief interlude of milder air during the day Tuesday. After that, the low’s cold front will swing through and return cold but dry weather to us for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next disturbance which returns clouds and the chance of some snow showers by Friday…

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Periods of light snow late evening and overnight with accumulations of generally under 1 inch but up to 1 inch possible, Lows 18-25 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with lingering snow showers except mix/rain showers South Coast. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Watching the January 29-30 weekend for a potential winter storm threat. Model guidance remains variable and inconsistent, as is usually the case. However the pattern supports at least something nearby, if not directly impacting the region, favoring the first half of the weekend, followed by a shot of windy/cold weather. Cold end to January then perhaps a slight moderation and a little unsettled weather to start off February.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Transition to a milder pattern gets underway but may involve some additional unsettled weather between milder air trying to move up from the south and still cold air to the north.

C-19 Chat Post – January 24 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

While high pressure tries to control the weather here in New England it will have issues keeping a couple of small intruders out – those intruders being a couple of rather weak disturbances coming along via the Great Lakes. The first one will bring cloudiness today and perhaps some snow showers this evening. After a sunnier interlude during the day Monday, the next one will approach Monday night into Tuesday, with a shield of snow ahead of its warm front bringing a small accumulation to at least parts of the region. While we get briefly into the warm sector as this low travels just north of here, Tuesday ends up as our mildest day of this forecast period, because the cold front will then swing quickly through with colder air returning Tuesday night, and a second front will whistle across the region early Wednesday bringing in another shot of much colder air, a gusty wind making that feel even sharper. High pressure brings fair weather Thursday with a slightly temperature moderation but still sub-normal.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun possible. Highs 31-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds, more sun likely. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. A coating to 1 inch of snow possible overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow early morning. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 30-37 morning, falling into the 20s afternoon. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures are expected to remain generally below normal for this period. We remain vulnerable to potential storm systems as well with the first one to watch between later January 28 and January 29. Guidance, as expected, has been inconsistent with this and offers no help in trying to make many early guesses on the impact from this system, so that will happen later.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Pattern change starts to take place with a milder trend trying to develop as we see more upper level high pressure becoming established over the southeastern US, but with a lot of cold air in Canada this still leaves our region vulnerable to unsettled weather with temperature fluctuations.

C-19 Chat Post – January 23 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

The ocean-effect snow machine tends to work in relatively short bursts in our area, as it’s not too often we have the conditions perfect to have it persist for all that long, but this time is a little different. Since early Friday, this has been going on, starting over Cape Cod and the MA South Shore, with a brief tapering break, then a return to activity that then shifted more to the north to include Boston and Cape Ann as well, and heading southwestward into southern portions of central MA at times as well. I’ve even seen occasional flakes here in Woburn which is about 10 to 12 miles northwest of Boston, being right on the edge of the northernmost band at times. Snowfall accumulations with events like this are often very difficult to get exactly right, due to the sometimes narrow heavier bands that can shift back and forth, or remain in place, depending on the exact location of little convergence zones and overall wind direction at any given time. These snowfalls often present in very high snow to water ratios, as previously mentioned by a fellow meteorologist on the blog yesterday (20:1 ratios can be very common and even sometimes they can go much higher than that). It doesn’t take much moisture to pile up a few inches of pure feather fluff snow. This is very easy to clean, but it can make the roads slippery if there is partial melting and refreezing due to previous road treatment but also very cold air in place, or a quick covering of snow is then packed down by vehicular traffic. Some may wonder why an onshore wind off an ocean that is quite mild (40+ degrees) would create such fluffy snow. Well the quick answer is that the air heading from eastern Canada and Maine into and across those waters was very cold, in some cases below zero, so yes, it does modify, but maybe only to the teens and 20s by the time it’s crossed the water enroute to the shore, picking up enough moisture to deposit the fluff in the still very cold air, even after it’s been modified. I mentioned that this set up is less common to see here because our “average” weather does not create this set up of northeast winds for very long periods of time to create the ocean effect snow, in contrast to a place like Buffalo, where they average colder than we do anyway and also tend to see more persistent winds from the west, giving them more opportunity for lake effect events. Of course if you take the entire Great Lakes into account, you’re talking about a huge sample size compared to our very small area of coast, so it pretty much becomes an irrelevant comparison at that point – but you get the idea by keeping it in the proper perspective. 🙂 So how about the rest of the weather for this weekend and early next week? Well, we are being missed by a storm to the south today, as became clear would likely happen during the past few days. And we’ll have more cold but generally dry weather for Sunday and Monday as weak high pressure dominates our weather, although some upper level energy passing through will bring some varying amounts of cloudiness during Sunday before we end up with more sun Monday. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, it gets a little more complex. We’re going to be in a set-up that guidance can mess up royally even just a couple days out. Tuesday a wave of low pressure passes to our north, a warm front passing by in the morning with no more than clouds and maybe some spotty snowfall. We “warm up” in a relative sense that day, pushing 40 or so, and then a cold front swings by later. It would likely be mild enough for a rain shower with this but I’m not even sure there will be enough moisture to produce anything, and then we chill-down behind that front Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is going to be more energy back to our southwest so we have to watch for a wave of low pressure to form, just in case it’s a little more of something than guidance currently indicates. If this is the case, Wednesday could end up messy with overrunning precipitation, probably of the frozen variety, or it could all end up happening too far to the south and we stay mainly dry and chilly. This will be the puzzle I’ll be trying to solve over the next few days. For now, for forecast purposes, I’ll lean dry but add the chance of some snow/mix for southern areas.

TODAY: Lots of clouds northeastern through south central MA southward with occasional snow showers, but more persistent snow shower bands especially near and south of Boston where up to a few additional inches of snow are possible. More sun to the northwest. Highs 17-24, but 25-30 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 20-27. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow early. Maybe a rain shower late. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow southern areas. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. Watching for two potential low pressure impacts around January 28-29 and again about January 30-31. Too soon for any speculation on details.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

The beginning of a pattern change. Trending milder, some unsettled weather during the transition.

C-19 Chat Post – January 22 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

Cold and mainly dry weather will be the story for the next few days. Ocean-effect snow showers will be one exception from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod today, where some minor snowfall accumulations will occur, and a few more of these may occur tonight into Saturday as well as a storm passes to the south of our area, keeping the wind’s trajectory just onshore enough. High pressure will be the main player in our weather through through Monday, supplying the cold air. High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday with moderating temperatures, and a frontal boundary approaches from the west with a chance of some precipitation – and by then it may be mild enough to talk about rain showers.

TODAY: Clouds and snow showers MA South Shore through Cape Cod with a coating to as much of 3 inches of accumulation, except a band of greater than 3 inches likely over a narrow area. More sunshine elsewhere. Highs 18-25. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Possible snow showers Cape Cod and MA South Shore. Lows 0-8 north and west of Boston, 8-15 Boston through Cape Cod. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers MA South Shore and Cape Cod early. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of mix/rain showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south for potential impact early and again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 21 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A cold front has passed by our region and a wave of low pressure moving up along it, passing just to our southeast, will cause a period of rain to snow this morning with some minor snow accumulation especially near and south of I-90 / I-84 before we dry out. But it will be turning colder as the day goes on and any untreated wet or slushy surfaces will become icy with time. Much colder air moves in tonight through Friday, when some ocean-effect snow showers may occur over Cape Cod due to a northerly wind blowing that very cold air over relatively warm water. Some of these ocean effect snow showers may start to impact the South Shore of MA Friday night and Saturday as we get a temporary turning of the wind a little more northeasterly as low pressure passes southeast of New England during that time. High pressure will build in with cold and dry weather Sunday holding through Monday as well as another low passes far to the south of our area.

TODAY: Cloudy with rain changing to snow this morning, ending by midday. Snow accumulation from a coating to 1 inch with locally up to 2 inches possible, mostly near and south of I-90 / I-84. Clearing northwest to southeast later in the day. Highs 33-38 except 38-43 South Coast early, then gradually falling temperatures during the day. Wind NE to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except clouds and snow showers developing Cape Cod. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers Cape Cod and MA South Shore. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers MA South Shore and Cape Cod with a chance of a period of steady snow on the islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south for potential impact, but nothing clear-cut at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 20 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

A warm front moves through this morning, setting up a breezy but relatively mild day across our region. This warm front extends from low pressure moving north of New England, and its cold front will then cross the region during the early hours of Thursday with a few rain and snow showers. But just as the front is moving off the South Coast, a wave of low pressure will move up along it, resulting in some overrunning moisture which will meet the colder air to bring a brief snowfall to the region Thursday morning. This will move out by later in the day and then we’re dry and cold, but windy, Thursday night and Friday, although ocean effect snow showers are likely over Cape Cod late Thursday night into Friday as a cold northerly wind travels over relatively warm ocean water. The weekend also looks cold, and we’ll continue to watch a storm system set to pass southeast of the region on Saturday. Guidance has developed more agreement that this system will just graze southeastern areas or be a near-miss, and that remains my leaning as well, but it still has to be watched. High pressure builds in with dry weather Sunday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH with gusts to or a little over 20 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers then snow showers overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with a period of snow likely – accumulation 1 to 3 inches except under 1 inch southern NH and northern MA as well as outer Cape Cod and the Islands. Increasing sun thereafter. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early then NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Snow showers developing over Cape Cod. Lows 12-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-17. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring far southeastern areas. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. There will be low pressure systems to watch for potential impact, about 3 during this period, basically every other day. None of these are guaranteed hits – we just remain in a vulnerable pattern during this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.