DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Tropical Storm Elsa will cut a path across southeastern New England today, its center crossing RI and southeastern MA between late morning and early afternoon, exiting the coast mid afternoon, and accelerating away via the Gulf of Maine by tonight. The impacts here will be moderate. As is typical with a tropical system or one just starting to undergo its transition to non-tropical, the heaviest (steadiest) rainfall will be to the left of the center, with the stronger wind gusts to the right of the center, though there we will also see some heavy shower and thunderstorm clusters. Thunder may occur with the heavier rain to the left of the track as well. The tornado threat, also typical with a system like this, will be limited to an area from about Plymouth County of MA and the South Coast of RI eastward through Cape Cod, but this is also minimal (just not a zero threat). Our biggest issues with this system will be localized flooding due to heavy rain after an already wet week for most of the region mostly near and to the west of where the center tracks, and isolated pockets of wind damage and resultant power outages mostly near and to the east of where the center tracks. This will be over rather quickly, so don’t expect an all-day event. Some areas, especially south and west of Boston, may be seeing breaks of sun before mid afternoon and even areas to the north and east may get in on that before the day is over. Tonight, a weak frontal boundary moves into the region from the west and may set off a few showers and possible thunderstorms, with the greatest chance of thunder being near and south of I-90. This boundary will still be around for a while on Saturday before settling off to the south, so the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms is still in play, again favoring areas mostly south of I-90. This activity will be gone in time for a quiet Saturday night into Sunday, weather-wise, but you’ll notice an increase in cloudiness again during Sunday as that boundary decides it wants to be a warm front and starts a northward creep back into the region, which will take until late Monday to happen, so we’ll be back into some unsettled weather later Sunday through Monday with lots of clouds and occasional showers. It remains to be seen if the front pushes its way all the way through by Tuesday to put us back into a sector of warmer and muggy weather. Some guidance says yes, other guidance says no, and I’m “on the fence” about it myself, so will cover both scenarios with generic wording in the detailed forecast below, then fine-tune as needed.

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with areas of fog / drizzle / rain to start, then a swath of heavier rain left of Elsa’s track and numerous moderate to heavy showers right of Elsa’s track mid morning through early afternoon from south southwest to north northeast across the region. Embedded thunderstorms possible all areas. Clouds may break for partial sun from southwest to northeast mid afternoon on. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind E shifting to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts left of Elsa’s track, SE shifting to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts right of Elsa’s track. Pockets of damaging wind may occur, including brief isolated small tornadoes, especially from Plymouth County and coastal RI eastward through noon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon but diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and a chance of a thunderstorm, favoring areas near and south of I-90. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s except remaining in the lower 60s South Coast. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, cooler coastal areas.. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

A frontal boundary and a couple of disturbances passing through the region will continue the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms at times July 14-16. Optimistic for a drier trend for the July 17-18 weekend with a bit more heat possible. The entire forecast is low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Lower confidence in the medium range forecast at this time, but still thinking it may be a little more “classic” summertime here with a bit more heat and humidity with a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – July 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

Our active early summer pattern continues, and we’ll be throwing a tropical storm into the mix, by name of Elsa. This will cross the region Friday during the day bringing a rain and wind event to southeastern New England. Before that happens, much of the region is now on the cooler side of a front that moved in from the north last evening, bringing another couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some with impressive lightning shows, as well as some pockets of wind damage. Another disturbance moved through at mid and upper levels from west to east right behind this front during the early morning hours, waking some of you up yet again with a round of heavy rain, lightning & thunder, but this has moved offshore. The frontal boundary now sits across far southern portions of southern New England and will set up a temperature contrast for today. The atmosphere above us remains unstable so as we go through the day there can be some additional shower and thunderstorms development. As we get to this evening, a plume of tropical moisture in advance of Elsa which will have pushed northward to our west will then slide eastward into the region and make the rainfall more widespread, though still showery in nature, and then the center of Elsa, while accelerating and just starting to lose tropical characteristics, will cut right across the region during Friday midday and afternoon. To the right of the track will come the strongest winds from the southeast and south, and to the left of the track a more east to northeasterly wind, gusty but less powerful, will occur, but here we will likely see some of the heaviest rainfall. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible, and this includes a small potential of a couple of tropical variety small tornadoes in some of the heavier convective elements associated with the passing system, with these most likely occurring to the east of the storm’s track. By late in the day Friday, the low center is already pulling away and we’ll all be into a northwesterly wind on its back side, rather gusty, but with less rainfall. However some lingering instability and a trough that has to sink through the region can still help trigger a few showers Friday night and a few more showers or thunderstorms, favoring southern areas, through midday Saturday. The majority of the region will be rain-free on Saturday. By Sunday, a warm front is lifting toward the region with cloudiness and eventually the risk of some showers – not a washout of a day by any stretch, but not a perfect summer day either. Monday, we should find ourselves back in the warm sector with humid conditions, lots of clouds, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible morning and midday. Increased chance of showers during the afternoon. Highs 68-75 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms, ending from southwest to northeast by late afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind E backing to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in southern NH and northern through central MA, and SE to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts southeastern MA and RI except 35-45 MPH with stronger gusts in coastal areas before shifting to NW later in the day and diminishing slightly. Potential damaging wind gusts in any heavier showers and storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds but still the chance of a shower. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts evening, becoming variable and diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms through midday favoring southern MA southward. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s except remaining in the lower 60s South Coast. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

A continued unsettled pattern overall with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with a frontal boundary in and around the region. Temperatures variable, not all that far from normal when averaged out.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

A little more high pressure dominant but still some disturbances passing through. The risk of showers and storms will be present at times and temperatures are expected to be variable but average near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Another very warm and muggy day today, with a bit more sun than yesterday, and with a cold front moving toward the region from the northwest, the ingredients will be in place for the development of showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon into this evening. Although the coverage of activity may end up a little less than yesterday’s was, some of the storms can still become quite strong to locally severe, so keep a close eye on the weather today. The cold front will move through the region this evening then settle just to the south of New England near the South Coast into Thursday, allowing cooler and only slightly less humid air to move in, but cloud cover will be extensive and there will be enough moisture around for additional showers, most of them Thursday afternoon and evening. A plume of tropical moisture in advance of Elsa, which at that time will be heading northeastward over land toward New England, will probably send the heaviest rain in advance of the system west of the WHW forecast area Thursday evening, and at the same time the frontal boundary that came through before will be lifting back as a warm front and returning higher humidity air to our region, just in time for the low pressure circulation of Elsa, which may still have some tropical characteristics, to move northeastward and probably right across southeastern New England on Friday. This is when our heaviest and most widespread rainfall will likely occur, along with embedded thunderstorms, some of which may rotate. We’ll have to keep an eye on these for potential pockets of wind damage. Otherwise the main threat on Friday will be local flooding from heavy rain. I remain optimistic for weekend improvement as a bubble of high pressure moves in behind the departing low pressure area for Saturday, but there will be enough residual moisture left behind so that a pop up shower cannot be ruled out. I do think the vast majority of the region will be dry for most of if not all of Saturday. A warm front may approach by later Sunday with more cloudiness, but for now this also looks like a rain-free and relatively low humidity day, not bad considering the pattern we’re in.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms can become strong to severe. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm possible. Areas of fog forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible morning and midday. Increased chance of showers during the afternoon. Highs 69-76. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms, ending from west to east during the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, may be variable with strong gusts in heavier showers/storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

This 5-day period presents higher humidity again with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with temperatures mostly near normal as we’ll be in a pattern somewhat similar to this week’s, but likely without the addition of the remains of a tropical system this time. It most definitely won’t rain all the time, but we’ll probably track several opportunities for it.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Continued indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.

C-19 Chat Post – July 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

Some of you may have been woken up by, or already were awake to see & hear, the overnight warm front thunderstorm activity that developed across central MA and moved eastward in the pre-dawn hours. This activity, while expected as at least a possibility, was a little bit more concentrated than I had thought it might be – an indication of some nice instability in the atmosphere which does not need daytime heating to be taken advantage of. We see that, espsecially with warm fronts, during the nighttime / early morning hours at times. The last of these showers and storms are exiting via the NH Seacoast and Cape Cod as I write this update. Our unstable atmosphere will be with us for a good part of today, and a trough moving across the region, with the aid of some heating, will trigger more showers and thunderstorms midday through afternoon from west to east. Some of these storms have the potential to become severe, with damaging wind being the greatest threat. A few of these storms may produce hail as well. Any thunderstorm can produce a torrential downpour enough to cause localized flooding that is hazardous for travel, and of course lightning, which is dangerous no matter how “strong” the storm is. So be aware of this today, especially if you have travel plans or any outdoor plans. Things settle down this evening after the trough goes by, but we remain in a warm and humid air mass tomorrow and with an approaching cold front we will likely see another round or two of showers and thunderstorms in the region. The severe potential for tomorrow’s activity is a little bit lower, but still some potent storms are possible. The cold front settles to a position just south of New England or near the South Coast Wednesday night, then sits there, and will be the running board for a couple low pressure waves, including the remains of TS Elsa, which technically may be more than “remains”, as it may hold onto its identity rather nicely for a system that’s been over land for a while, and pass close to or even right over the region at some point during the first half or two thirds of Friday, based on current timing. This is when we have our potential to have our most widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. I remain optimistic for an area of high pressure moving in behind all of this for a nicer summer day on Saturday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. An early-morning shower or thunderstorm near the NH Seacoast and Cape Cod, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from west to east this afternoon, with isolated severe storms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early in RI and southeastern MA. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely including the chance of thunderstorms, mainly mid afternoon on. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms., ending from west to east during the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

A little more optimistic for slower timing of movement of features meaning that high pressure can hold on for mostly dry weather July 11 to finish off the weekend, followed by a new stretch of unsettled weather as we have a series of disturbances move through with higher humidity and episodes of showers and thunderstorms at times.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.

C-19 Chat Post – July 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

The “gift” that kept on giving. The upper low sent one more lobe of energy down across portions of the WHW forecast area last evening, bringing some showers to the region pretty much just in time for a lot of fireworks displays, but the ones scheduled all happened, because at that point I think everybody was pretty much used to the unsettled weather, everything was ready to go, and it just went ahead. At least there were no thunderstorms, nor did we see the widespread heavier rainfall of the previous few days. Finally, today, we get to say goodbye once and for all to that upper low, but not before it sends one final batch of clouds across the region this morning. Today will feature warmer weather than any of the past three days did, but it will be a modest warm-up, as most areas recover back to the 70s for highs, with relatively low humidity. But a warm front is heading this way, and will be evident by an increase in clouds again late today and tonight. I’ve been slightly concerned about some shower and thunderstorm activity with this warm front but I am pretty sure now that any activity will be rather isolated and favor areas to the north, but still cannot rule out an isolated shower/t-storm or two getting into the area in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Regardless, heat and humidity makes a re-appearance on Tuesday, and a trough approaching the region during the afternoon and evening will bring a round of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. Greatest chance for the strongest activity will be in southern NH, northern and central MA and possibly into northeastern CT and northern RI, with a decent chance the activity weakens as it heads southeastward by evening. Nevertheless, anybody with outdoor plans or travel plans in the area should be aware of the storm risk and keep a close eye on the weather. A quieter but warm and muggy Tuesday night will be followed by a hot and humid Wednesday, but a cold front will move into the region and bring the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms. That front will move into, but not completely through the region, likely hanging up somewhere near the South Coast and sitting through there Friday. This will allow a couple waves of low pressure to ride along it, and some of the moisture from the remains of Elsa to become involved Thursday night into Friday, keeping the weather unsettled into if not through Friday. This time, however, we won’t see the temperatures drop nearly as low as they did over the holiday weekend…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy into mid morning. Mostly sunny later morning on, but some clouds returning from the west again by late day. Highs 72-79. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Weak high pressure should move in for a fair weather interlude July 10. After that, it’s back to unsettled weather as another low pressure area and frontal systems move in from the west and take their time getting out of here, bringing higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.

C-19 Chat Post – July 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy Independence Day!

You need no reminder that it hasn’t felt like early July around here for a couple days now, and today won’t either, but we’ll also start to see improvement in the weather as a slow transition back toward weather more fitting for the season takes place. Upper level low pressure is moving very slowly away, but still has enough influence on the region for a lot of clouds, eventual limited sun, and still some shower opportunities today. Drying accelerates a little tonight making pretty much all scheduled fireworks displays possible. Monday, we warm up a bit more with a small bubble of high pressure extends from the Mid Atlantic to just south of New England. But a warm front will be approaching later Monday when there will be an increase in cloudiness, and from west to east Monday night a round of showers and potential thunderstorms will visit the region on the leading edge of this warmer and more humid air, which will result in Tuesday being a fairly hot and humid day. A cold front will be moving into the region from the north northwest as low pressure passes north of the region, and this brings with it the chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The front won’t really push fully through the region and another front will approach from the northwest Wednesday, keeping the chance of showers and storms in the forecast. And the unsettled stretch will likely continue Thursday as that front also fails to fully push through and a disturbance comes along, along with some moisture associated with the remains of Elsa. This could enhance rainfall potential during Thursday for our area.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible evening. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

Frontal boundary sits just to the south and slowly pulls away with a slow drying process July 9, temperatures below normal. High pressure moves in with fair and warmer weather July 10. The next disturbance returns shower chances and higher humidity then may hang around to continue another unsettled stretch in the July 11-13 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

No big pattern changes. Should dry out then see another stretch of unsettled weather following that. Temperatures somewhat variable during mid month.

C-19 Chat Post – July 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

I’d like to be writing a short blog update on this Saturday morning of a summer holiday weekend, but with temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60, a chilly wind off the Atlantic, a low overcast, drizzle, fog, and showers around, maybe you need some extra reading material, so let’s stretch this one out a bit. 😉 If you happen to be reading from outside of this area, I hope you are enjoying much nicer weather than we are currently experiencing. After a solid heat spell earlier in the week, we’ve fallen back to levels very reminiscent of Memorial Day Weekend, chilly, raw, damp. At least in late May one can justify that type of weather, being springtime and much earlier in the “warm season”, without chilly ocean nearby and weather set-ups that can still often propel winds more sharply off the water, not the more gentle sea breezes that we more often see as we move into the early weeks of summer. But this time, the synoptics conspired in such a way to show us a little more of an extreme case, and for the second straight time it’s falling on a holiday weekend. That, I assure you, is pure coincidence. The atmosphere has no idea what we are celebrating and observing. It’s just doing what it does. All we can do is make the most of that, so I hope you find a way to do that if you had outdoor plans that have to be changed. The peak of our “bad” weather comes today when we have the strongest northeasterly air flow at the surface, and maximum amount of both low level moisture and moisture above us and upper level low pressure moving right over the region. This combination socks us in with thick cloudiness, with low undefined bases and sometimes fog as the air is pretty fully saturated. Drizzle is common and sometimes persistent, and the upper level low will help generate showers, a few of which can be on the heavier side. As of 8 a.m. today these already exist across the central MA and a good portion of southern NH, but can occur pretty much anywhere during today and into tonight as well. We’ll see a gradual, and I mean very slow improvement of the weather during Sunday. The overcast will start to thin at times, and you may see the sun trying to poke through. The drizzle will taper off, the fog will be more patchy, and while we still have the chance of showers as the upper low continues its lazy journey across New England. At least any shower activity will be diminishing and the last of it should exit by early Sunday evening. Full improvement finally comes during the overnight hours, leaving Monday, the observed holiday for some, as the nicest day we’ve had in a while with a good deal of sunshine, fairly dry air, and a nice temperature recovery. Unfortunately, many folks will have planned this as a travel day. Well, at least the roads will be dry! And now for the part where we add insult to injury. A warm front comes through the region Monday night with some cloudiness and perhaps a passing shower or thunderstorm, then we’re back into the heat for Tuesday, which returns after the warm front passes and ahead of an approaching cold front. This front may be fast enough to bring a shower and thunderstorm threat by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, but the early indications are that it will slow down and not really get all the way through the region, leaving us warm and somewhat humid and vulnerable to additional unsettled weather on Wednesday. Details will have to be fine-tuned for how that plays out…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered to numerous showers. Highs 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Numerous showers evening becoming scattered overnight. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible evening. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

The frontal boundary bringing unsettled weather chances from late Tuesday through Wednesday will still be in the region to start this period, and we’ll also have to watch the remnants of a tropical system from the south that may increase rainfall chances as well, but this should move quickly enough and high pressure should start to advance in from Canada so that we start to dry out by July 9 and set up at least a nice start to the July 10-11 weekend, which may turn unsettled before it ends from an advancing warm front and low pressure area, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances for the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

The pattern will be one of air mass changes and a couple opportunities for showers and storms again, but it’s impossible for specific timing this far out.

C-19 Chat Post – July 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

This holiday weekend (Independence Day) won’t be just like the previous holiday weekend (Memorial Day). Only about half of it will…….. oops. Ok, yes, it could be worse, but we are definitely not going to be looking outside or be outside and think thoughts of beautiful summer weather, unless your idea of it is overcast, wet, and much cooler than normal. But hey, if you were one of the many complaining about it being too hot for several days earlier this week, your complaints have been answered by Mother Nature. Happy now? 😉 So enough sarcasm and on to the actual reason our weather has turned 180. First off, it’s not really unusual. It’s not unusual to be hotter than normal and it’s not unusual to be cooler than normal, even in summer. The averages we go by are made up of these above-normal and below-normal episodes. This just happens to be a case where a strong version of each take place over a short period of time, and the timing is pretty bad if you were looking for some nice summertime weather for your outdoor plans. But not all is lost here. If today and Saturday held a lot of your plans, then it’s not good. If your outside stuff is more Sunday and/or Monday, things are not looking quite as dim. We have to deal first with a wave of low pressure passing by a frontal boundary that is sitting just to the southeast of New England now, and this brought in some significant rainfall last night, which has continued, especially in eastern areas, into this morning, but will taper to more of a showery / drizzly situation during the day today. But we still have to deal with an upper level low pressure area crossing the region, and it’s going to take all day Saturday and even until early Sunday to complete its journey. With a northeasterly air flow for much of the region Saturday, and still a lot of low level and mid level moisture around, this doesn’t bode well for what was previously a more optimistic forecast I had made. I can’t be optimistic about Saturday any longer, so expect an overcast day with occasionally wet and continually very cool conditions. Finally, on Sunday, the wind goes around to a drier northwesterly direction behind departing low pressure, but just enough cold air lingers aloft that when the air tries to warm a little bit, we can still see some showers pop up. These are not going to be widespread, and will probably be limited more to inland locations. The air will still be cooler than normal Sunday, though. Just without the more persistent dampness and frequent wet weather of the two days that precede it. With Monday being the observed holiday for many, the opportunity will be there to salvage one very nice summer day, as high pressure moves in, centered to the south, and although it will be a weak high it will be enough to push in a warmer southwesterly air flow and supply a good deal of sunshine, although that sun may start to filter out later in the day as the leading edge of hot and humid air mass starts to approach. The warm front marking the leading edge of this air will cross the region Monday night with clouds and a risk of a shower or thunderstorm, though most of that activity may end up passing to the north, and we’ll find ourselves briefly back in heat and humidity for Tuesday between that warm front and an approaching cold front, which may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, depending on its timing…

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers morning. Numerous to scattered showers this afternoon. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered showers. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered to numerous showers, especially afternoon. Highs 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Showers likely evening, diminishing overnight. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds break for partial sun. Chance of a shower early in the day. Scattered afternoon showers possible mainly interior higher elevations. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Frontal boundary sits nearby July 7-9 with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, with potentially enhanced rainfall by the middle of the period depending on the future track of TS Elsa (forecast to reach the Florida area) and its remains (which may move northward across the eastern US and exit via New England). Drier weather arriving later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Another period of higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances followed by drier weather again.