Friday July 2 2021 Forecast (7:48AM)

68 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

This holiday weekend (Independence Day) won’t be just like the previous holiday weekend (Memorial Day). Only about half of it will…….. oops. Ok, yes, it could be worse, but we are definitely not going to be looking outside or be outside and think thoughts of beautiful summer weather, unless your idea of it is overcast, wet, and much cooler than normal. But hey, if you were one of the many complaining about it being too hot for several days earlier this week, your complaints have been answered by Mother Nature. Happy now? 😉 So enough sarcasm and on to the actual reason our weather has turned 180. First off, it’s not really unusual. It’s not unusual to be hotter than normal and it’s not unusual to be cooler than normal, even in summer. The averages we go by are made up of these above-normal and below-normal episodes. This just happens to be a case where a strong version of each take place over a short period of time, and the timing is pretty bad if you were looking for some nice summertime weather for your outdoor plans. But not all is lost here. If today and Saturday held a lot of your plans, then it’s not good. If your outside stuff is more Sunday and/or Monday, things are not looking quite as dim. We have to deal first with a wave of low pressure passing by a frontal boundary that is sitting just to the southeast of New England now, and this brought in some significant rainfall last night, which has continued, especially in eastern areas, into this morning, but will taper to more of a showery / drizzly situation during the day today. But we still have to deal with an upper level low pressure area crossing the region, and it’s going to take all day Saturday and even until early Sunday to complete its journey. With a northeasterly air flow for much of the region Saturday, and still a lot of low level and mid level moisture around, this doesn’t bode well for what was previously a more optimistic forecast I had made. I can’t be optimistic about Saturday any longer, so expect an overcast day with occasionally wet and continually very cool conditions. Finally, on Sunday, the wind goes around to a drier northwesterly direction behind departing low pressure, but just enough cold air lingers aloft that when the air tries to warm a little bit, we can still see some showers pop up. These are not going to be widespread, and will probably be limited more to inland locations. The air will still be cooler than normal Sunday, though. Just without the more persistent dampness and frequent wet weather of the two days that precede it. With Monday being the observed holiday for many, the opportunity will be there to salvage one very nice summer day, as high pressure moves in, centered to the south, and although it will be a weak high it will be enough to push in a warmer southwesterly air flow and supply a good deal of sunshine, although that sun may start to filter out later in the day as the leading edge of hot and humid air mass starts to approach. The warm front marking the leading edge of this air will cross the region Monday night with clouds and a risk of a shower or thunderstorm, though most of that activity may end up passing to the north, and we’ll find ourselves briefly back in heat and humidity for Tuesday between that warm front and an approaching cold front, which may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, depending on its timing…

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers morning. Numerous to scattered showers this afternoon. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered showers. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered to numerous showers, especially afternoon. Highs 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Showers likely evening, diminishing overnight. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds break for partial sun. Chance of a shower early in the day. Scattered afternoon showers possible mainly interior higher elevations. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Frontal boundary sits nearby July 7-9 with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, with potentially enhanced rainfall by the middle of the period depending on the future track of TS Elsa (forecast to reach the Florida area) and its remains (which may move northward across the eastern US and exit via New England). Drier weather arriving later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Another period of higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances followed by drier weather again.

68 thoughts on “Friday July 2 2021 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. I do have a question. Your thoughts on P-town weather for today, tomorrow and Sunday? I am thinking lower rain totals, but might be wishful thinking…?

    1. I think they are just as susceptible as everybody to moderate rainfall today and light to moderate rainfall totals on Saturday. The stuff should linger there into early Sunday and then it’s gone.

  5. Longshot, hope its a great trip to P-town !

    I´d guess falling temps today (Friday) in P-town. Freshening NE winds, so some fog may roll in off the ocean. Hopefully a break from the rain, but drizzle and mist may arrive and persist on the increasing NE wind.

    Saturday: Chance for some showers or rain developing mid day or later in the afternoon. Perhaps continued misty, drizzly in the AM, NE wind, cool, high 50s.

    Sunday: Hopefully some breaks of sun in the afternoon and temps climbing into the 60s.

    1. Hoping you have a nice trip and can run between the raindrops, Longshot, as my dad used to tell my brother and me 🙂

      Tom, are you still in VT?

      1. Arrived back in Marshfield late yesterday. We had 1 more day scheduled, but were very happy with the trip and saw the rain coming and left yesterday. 🙂

        1. Thanks. I figured out how to “tag” others. Heaven help them all 😉 I looked at who I’m following last night and cracked up when I saw they were either majority or all meteorologists

  12. Driving to work this morning for 3am eta was Horrible as it was raining very heavily the entire ride in .

  13. Even when a storm is a legit, NHC still manages to find a way to screw things up. They upgraded Elsa to a hurricane, based on a report of sustained 74mph with a gust to 86 mph on Barbados this morning. So, NHC almost immediately upgraded Elsa to a hurricane, and issued a hurricane warning for the island. Well, the obs was almost immediately corrected to 65 mph, not 65 knots (still a gust to 86 mph), and the hurricane warning, which was less than 1 hour old, was changed to a tropical storm warning.

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=box&sid=TBPB&num=72

    A recon is heading out there this afternoon. We’ll see what the plane finds.

  14. Got about 3 inches of rain in Natick last night which was a bit more than I expected. Is it safe to say that it will be drizzly/showery over the next few days but only with an accumulation of a half inch or so? Looks like our next hope for a sunny long summer weekend is Labor Day.

    1. I just need 8-12 in pembroke tomorrow with no down pours . Landscaping can be stressful at times lol

  16. Received 3.33 inch since yesterday.
    Received 0.55 inch the day before
    and 0.24 inch the day before that

    that is a 3 day total of: 4.12 inches

    ENOUGH ALREADY!!!!!

  18. Thanks TK.

    July 4, 1978 was cold & rainy (1”+) with temps only around 65F for the high iirc. I believe the Esplanade Concert (with Arthur Fiedler) went on as scheduled. Not certain about the fireworks though.

  21. Longshot in case you missed it I answered your question at the very top of today’s comments.

  23. Was 100F 45 hours ago. It’s now 59F. If we have another 41F drop in the next two days it will be 18F on July 4th.

  24. Philip, I believe July 4th, 1978 was Fiedler’s last show on the Hatchshell. And it was relatively cool and rainy outside. He died on July 10th, 1979, but I think was too sick to conduct on July 4, 1979. I went to the show that was a celebration of his life, on July 15th, 1979. Unfortunately, that day was dreary, overcast, but not rainy. Concert was good, fireworks were not really visible except blotches of color in the sky.

    1. I am sure I have mentioned here that Mr Mugar was a family friend from Belmont. I remember when he began to sponsor the event. I was thinking Fiedler stopped after 79 when Mac and I were married and living in Framingham. We were married in 78 so I likely have the years confused. Mac and I always made a big deal out of the night. I’d find a simulcast on a radio station and play it through our stereo speakers. Amazing how far we have come technology-wise.

      Now my oldest grandchild watches every year with me and knows the words to most songs. I saw a quick lineup of the pops yesterday, and it looks very impressive. My favorite is when patriotic songs and tributes dominate the event.

      1. My first July 4th concert was 1976, and I’ve missed only 5of them since then.
        In 1986 the concert was actually on the 5th, because the Pops was at the Statue of Liberty on the 4th for its centennial celebration.

    3. Thanks Joshua. I didn’t realize that he died the following July. It’s been a lot of years now. As for that 1978 holiday I believe there are records for both rainfall and low high temp.

  25. Thanks TK.

    This is very much the pattern I envisioned several days ago which would lead to an extended stretch of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. I think Sunday will be relatively ok though, albeit cool, and Monday looks great. But definitely a tough break of luck to have our only two anomalously cool stretches of the warm season both fall on holiday weekends.

    What I see going forward, potentially for the rest of the summer: An unrelenting tendency for ridging and extreme heat in the West. I really think the mega-drought out there is starting to positively feedback on itself. I.e., heat and drought breeds heat and drought, and it’s having national if not hemispheric/global implications. What that means locally is that the we will likely see more instances of rain and storms due to troughing downstream of the Western ridge. And more ups and downs in the temperatures.

        2. You can infer from his comments, no. Up and down yes. That’s about the way I feel about the summer temps overall. We really only had 2 medium-length but somewhat intense heat episodes in June. That doesn’t say much about July, August, and September.

    2. Thank you, WxWatcher. If you are not able to get back here before then, I hope you have a great fourth!

  26. Vicki, fascinating that Mr. Mugar was a family friend. You had indeed said this before.

    Fiedler drove a black VW beetle. My father drove a yellow VW beetle. The cars looked identical, except for the color. Fiedler lived in Brookline, as did my father. He spotted Fiedler’s car several times.

    In the late 70s I attended the Hatchshell concerts and fireworks displays. Loved going with friends to the Esplanade. It was rowdier then. More public drinking. Still a lot of fun.

    2. Love your memory. So very special.

      As an aside….Mac drove a light blue VW beetle. They were awesome cars

  28. Can anyone help me identify a wunder station.

    I posted a cross stitch a woman in Belmont is making of the temperature every day in the town. She is using a wunder station on School street in Belmont. She said she would love to find the person the station belongs to I order to gift the crossword to him.

    I found a station on school street but have not idea how to drill down on identifying it

    Thank you

    1. The wunder map places the marker smack in the middle of the road, but it looks to be either 435 or 436 — five houses south of the intersection with Betts Rd.
      (I used to live in that neighborhood.)

      1. Thank you, Jean. I did send her the screen shot of that. But someone told her they are private weather stations. I did suggest she look for a weather station in the yard; but as you know, yards are close so can’t see into the backs.

        On another note…..did you know Dick Betts and family. Or did our families know one another?

        1. I didn’t know the family. We were renting half a house and we’re only there for two years. We enjoyed the neighborhood very much.

          1. Very nice. We rented multiple houses or half houses all over Belmont until we bought in 1963. But my mom lived there her whole life. Her dad and his brother owned a ton of the land and built many of the homes but most in the Cushing square and along common street area

    1. Thank you for posting this. I’d missed it. I’m going to send this to a lot of people.

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