C-19 Chat Post – February 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

High pressure approaches today behind our departed winter storm. The air flow between the two will result in a cold day with a gusty breeze but with plenty of sun. The active pattern we are in sends the next low pressure system our way for Tuesday, and this system, while not very strong, will send its center passing just south of the region and a shield of snow moving across our area, with minor to borderline moderate snowfall accumulation during the day and early evening, though air just mild enough may allow rain to be involved near the South Coast. High pressure builds back in behind this for Wednesday, which will be chilly and dry. The next low pressure area makes a run at the region later in the week. Early indications are that this system may be a little further south to have a direct or complete impact, but we’ll have to watch for the next chance of snow/mix to occur Thursday & Friday with this system.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast, accumulation of snow 2-4 inches except 1-2 inches South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering snow or flurries possible evening. Clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow. Highs 24-41. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible snow. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Next storm brings a threat of snow/mix/rain to the region by February 14, and another system may threaten by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events but much of the time should be on the dry and cold side.

C-19 Chat Post – February 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Two jet streams throw energy at us today. The first will be a southern stream low pressure area that will race northeastward, passing southeast of New England, throwing a shield of precipitation across the region from later this morning to early this evening, arriving from southwest to northeast as snow for most areas but mix or rain in the coastal plain due to marginal temperatures, then end up as mainly snow for all, with a light to moderate accumulation, and a pocket of heavier accumulation over interior southeastern MA, before exiting from west to east between 6 and 8 p.m. (may linger a bit longer in far eastern areas). As this feature exits, a cold front associated with energy in the northern jet stream may help create a brief snow shower or even a snow squall, especially west and north of Boston, as it moves through the region later in the evening. After this, a shot of windy, colder weather will follow for Monday, but as high pressure moves toward the region, the wind will start to relax by later Monday, and high clouds will already be streaming in ahead of the next system coming along in the jet stream which will bring a minor snow/mix/rain event to the region on Tuesday. After this, fair weather returns for midweek. Some of the guidance has another system moving in quickly, about next Thursday, but at the moment I believe that may be too quick on the guidance and will go with a slower timing, holding that system off through the middle of the week.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast late morning-midday, starting as rain in the coastal plain of MA especially Cape Cod before changing to snow there, steadiest through the afternoon, heaviest over eastern CT, RI & southeastern MA. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH morning, NE 10-20 MPH afternoon except 15-25 MPH with a few higher gusts over southeastern MA.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early evening with snow ending west to east by 8 or 9 p.m. after accumulating 1-3 inches across central and northeastern MA and southern NH, 3-5 inches in the Boston-Providence region southeastward, except pockets of 5-8 inches mainly interior southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Variably cloudy late evening with a passing snow shower or snow squall possible mainly in areas north and west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast. Highs 30-35 southern NH and northern MA, 35-40 southern MA & RI. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Active pattern with one or two low pressure systems impacting the region during this period with snow/mix/rain, favoring February 12 & 15, but low confidence on the timing of the second threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events near the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path. Don’t misread this as a forecast of snowstorm after snowstorm. There is far too much uncertainty out this far to make a confident call.

C-19 Chat Post – February 7 2021

COMMENTARY

Ever open your tool box and grab the wrench you are sure fits, then it just kind of fits but mostly doesn’t fit and you try to angle it so it will do the job anyway, but then…it doesn’t? And so you get another one, and it looks perfect, but it’s too small, and it doesn’t go around the nut, and you can’t try to fudge that one. Admittedly I’m not much of a fix-it so this hasn’t really happened to me recently … unless those wrenches are the different computer models and the nut is the forecast. Well, forecasting can drive you nuts, but I’m not letting this one drive me nuts. I’ve been trying to figure out in the era of suffering model guidance due to pandemic-induced data shortages which models are messing up which things in which events, but sometimes I’m not sure I’ve made any real progress, so I find myself just repeating the process each time from scratch, sort of like trying to create something in the kitchen. Well, I’m not much of a cook either, so I’m just going to stick to weather and tackle yet another forecast. Should be an easy one right? Fast-moving, non-phasing systems, quick hit, not a ton of snow, maybe a marginal rain vs. snow area for a small portion of the region. Should be a fairly straightforward forecast with a few glances at the guidance to make sure you’re not driving the wrong way down a one-way street. And then you have short range high resolution models spitting out numbers that even your best experience tell you can’t be right while guidance with less resolution is painting a picture much closer to what you envisioned based on your experience forecasting. “Yeah, but the high resolution guidance is made to be better, isn’t it?!” And then I sit here at 8:30 a.m. waiting for just “one more run” of the HRRR model before updating. Meanwhile, I’m thinking about maps I see posted from a source I really trust that are quite a bit higher than the idea I have of how this plays out. Is forecasting a little snowstorm really supposed to be this much of a challenge? I guess so! Bring it on. Let met get started on this update ….. riiiiiiiight after that HRRR finishes coming in. 😉 Ok, it’s done, here we go!

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

High pressure provides us with a nice winter day today and then 2 non-phasing disturbances bring us some unsettled weather for Sunday. The southern energy will be in the form of a fast moving low pressure area moving northeastward and passing southeast of New England, giving the region a 6 to 8 hour shot of snowfall, except that it should be warm enough for this to start as rain or a mix over coastal locations of southeastern MA and especially Cape Cod, after which it should quickly turn to snow there. Due to the fast-moving, non-phasing nature of this feature, while it can produce a pretty solid band or two of snow during Sunday afternoon and early evening, its short-duration will prevent a more significant snowfall than we are going to see. The northern energy will be coming along during the evening and has the potential to produce an additional snow shower or squall especially west and north of Boston. This will lead a shot of colder air with some wind into the region for Monday. The next low pressure system comes along in a fast-flowing jet stream for Tuesday, but we won’t be holding onto that much cold air so this system, while probably a snow event for interior areas, may be snow or rain closer to the coast and in southern locations. Will iron out the details over the next couple days on that one. That system is gone and it’s back to high pressure and fair weather Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunshine & patchy clouds. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Thickening overcast followed by snow arriving southwest to northeast late morning through early afternoon, may start as rain southeastern MA and southern RI before changing to snow, steadiest through the afternoon, and ending rapidly west to east by early evening. Snowfall accumulation 1-3 inches north and west of a Boston-Providence line, 3-5 inches to the southeast except 5-8 inches possible near the MA South Coast to the Upper Cape Cod region. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH morning, NE 10-20 MPH afternoon except 15-25 MPH southeastern MA with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a snow shower or squall possible north and west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast. Highs 30-35 southern NH and northern MA, 35-40 southern MA & RI. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Low to moderate confidence forecast. System passes to the south early February 11. Next storm threat for this area comes later February 12 into February 13 before drier/colder finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather eventsnear the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path.

C-19 Chat Post – February 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Low pressure takes the express lane through the St. Lawrence Valley today and its trailing frontal systems (warm front / cold front / occlusion) produce a minor precipitation event for us, mostly rain, a bit of snow interior higher elevations. This exits tonight and is replaced by dry and seasonably chilly weather Saturday. As the temperature falls below freezing tonight into early Saturday, watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces that are wet from rain and/or melting snow! Continuing to watch 2 piece of energy in a split jet stream for Sunday. The current idea is that we’ll get clipped by the northern edge of the snow shield from the southern stream storm system during the late morning and early afternoon hours of Sunday which will result in a minor snowfall accumulation especially for the New England South Coast, while the northern energy will come along in the form of a cold front which may produce a few late-day snow showers or even a snow squall. This introduces colder air for Monday, briefly. Another low pressure system will race eastward in the jet stream and while a little bit uncertain on its fine details, I figure at this time that this system can produce a minor snow/mix event Monday night and early Tuesday as it comes through the region while weakening, as it won’t have a lot of support with it.

TODAY: Clouds thicken up. A period or two of rain from late morning through mid afternoon moving west to east across the region, except may fall as snow in interior higher elevations of central MA and southern NH with minor accumulation of under 1 inch. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow arriving morning and exiting afternoon with accumulation of a coating to 1 inch except 1-3 inches South Coast region. A few snow showers possible and a risk of a heavier snow squall later in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, variable 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix possible. Temperatures steady or rising slightly to 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix/rain possible early, then clearing. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Colder weather will likely be dominant as arctic air that enters the US well west of here spills slowly eastward in pieces while the storm track starts out mainly south of here but may edge closer by later in the period. More elaboration on this period of time in future blog updates.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events during mid February near the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path. Too soon for any details and trying to pick out any specific events.

C-19 Chat Post – February 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure hung around overnight with a few more snow showers, adding another dusting or coating of snow to some locations. Now, it’s moving out and after a lot of clouds to start we’ll get a break in the unsettled weather as a sliver of high pressure moves in to bring some sun today, but that won’t last long as another low heads for the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday and its trailing frontal systems combine to bring us more precipitation, starting out as snow with a minor accumulation in southern NH and perhaps parts of adjacent northern MA, with rain elsewhere, then rain in all areas as the day goes on. This exits at night and is replaced by dry and colder weather Saturday. Next, 2 systems will fail to phase as they move by the region on Sunday, a southern stream one passing well to the south of New England early Sunday while a northern stream system heads into the region with its cold front later in the day, perhaps with a snow shower or squall, reinforcing the cold air for Monday when we may have another system rapidly approaching by the end of the day from the west in a fast-flowing jet stream.

TODAY: Lots of clouds and a lingering snow flurry possible, then sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain south and mix/snow northern MA and southern NH with accumulation of up to but mostly less than 1 inch, then numerous rain showers in all areas during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A few snow showers possible and a risk of a heavier snow squall later in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Snow possible at night. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, variable 5-15 MPH afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

This period looks colder and mostly dry with a storm track to the south of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

This period looks a little less cold but with a more active and unsettled pattern for our area.

C-19 Chat Post – February 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

The broad low pressure circulation that constitutes the winter storm still having a minor impact on the region today will gradually drift off to the east and away from us through tonight, but during that process we still have a little bit of ocean-effect snow on the North Shore and into Metro Boston this morning and another disturbance passing by to the southeast that will cause some snow shower activity across southern and eastern sections this morning into early afternoon, so some spotty small snowfall accumulations can be expected. In areas that were a little warmer during the recent storm and some melting occurred, a lot of that froze up overnight so beware of icy patches if you are heading out today. A narrow area of high pressure moves in and provides us with one nice winter day on Thursday before the next system brings unsettled weather in for Friday. This will be a minor impact event as low pressure tracks well northwest of New England and drags its frontal boundaries through the region – warm front followed quickly by cold front. Enough cold air will be around for a minor snowfall event at the start of this mainly in northern MA and southern NH with minor accumulation there, but the bulk of what falls will be in the form of rain and come later in the day. This system will push offshore and open the door to colder air coming back in over the weekend. The next storm threat we are watching is for Sunday, but right now my opinion is that 2 pieces of energy needing to phase for this to become anything significant will not phase and we’ll just have some cloudiness and a chance of light snowfall. However, with it being day 5 of this forecast, apply the uncertainty of a forecast 5 days out along with the additional questionable guidance performance, and it goes without saying that we’ll have to keep a close eye on this.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of light snow or snow showers through mid afternoon. Spotty dustings and coatings of snow. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain south and mix/snow northern MA and southern NH with accumulation of up to but mostly less than 1 inch, then numerous rain showers in all areas during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or flurries. Highs 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Leaning toward a colder/drier period of weather with a weaker storm track to the south of the region. More about this in upcoming blog posts…

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Low confidence but leaning toward a slight temperature moderation but more active weather pattern for mid February. Elaboration to come…

C-19 Chat Post – February 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

I’ll start by saying that looking at the snowfall accumulation map from the NWS this morning, this may be the most “variable” snowfall distribution I have seen in all my years of forecasting with some of the sharpest snowfall gradients. Looking back, the forecast was “ok”, off for some areas, on for others. Areas that I thought may get a slushy inch or two saw a few flakes and a slushy coating at most before turning to rain, while my top range was ok except for a few 17 to 20 inch amounts. Amazingly, the 20 inch amount occurred in town that borders my home town of Woburn – Wilmington MA, while here at Woods Hill, while I still have to officially measure what fell since 1:30 a.m. when I was sitting at 9.5 inches, I’m probably around 10 for the total as it looks like about 1/2 inch managed to add up after that. And then you have the gradient from about 1 inch at Logan to 13 inches just down the road and up the hill at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton. Synoptic banding, elevation, and a coastal front all played major rolls in the storm – a forecaster’s nightmare in a way, but a weather nut’s fascination. I’ll say that the latter is the bigger deal for me on this one, personally. But now it’s time to move on and look ahead. We still have some impact from this storm system today and even into Wednesday as its complex elongated low center does a little dance just offshore before pulling away. So we’ll have a spotty mainly light variety of precipitation today and some additional snow or snow showers for a while on Wednesday, not producing any significant accumulation. Then we get a break Thursday as high pressure moves in with a nice day. The next low passes northwest of our area on Friday with its frontal system bringing some unsettled weather, probably starting with some light snow/mix and ending up as rain showers. Behind this comes drier but somewhat colder air for the start of the weekend…

P.S.: Punxutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, which means he agrees with the WHW long range forecast for the month of March. 😉

TODAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers of rain and pockets of freezing rain, sleet, & snow. No significant ice or snow accumulation but watch for slippery areas. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of light snow or snow showers through mid afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain/mix/snow possible in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Watching for a possible storm system to impact the region with snow/mix/rain on February 7, departing by February 8 with windy/cold weather in its wake. Fair and still cold but more tranquil February 9-11 but another disturbance may pass not that far south of the region about February 10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Temperatures look a little more moderate heading into mid month. Next unsettled weather threat comes during the early and middle of this period, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – February 2 2021