1:39AM
DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
Nothing fancy. Let’s get right to the facts and my best shot at forecasting this upcoming storm and the weather heading out of 2016 and into the early days of 2017. First, the storm. No big surprises or breaking news here. Still looking at a parent low pressure system moving into southeastern Canada and giving way to a newly developing low on its trailing front, moving from off the Delmarva / NJ coast later today to across far southeastern New England this evening and then into Downeast Maine by early Friday, heading into the Canadian Maritime Provinces from there. What does this mean for southern New England? It means an area of snow/mix/rain moving in from west to east this morning and midday, snow mainly higher elevations western and northern areas of MA and into southern NH, rain to the south and with a mix area in between. As the new low takes over some heavier rain will move up across parts of RI and eastern MA later in the day and evening. The rain/snow line will likely progress pretty far to the west, to the vicinity of the Connecticut River. An exception may be the highest elevations of northern Worcester County and southwestern NH which may hold onto snow for most of if not all of the event. This very fast-moving system will then will drag colder air in behind itself as it moves beyond the region. The question is does the cold air come in quickly enough to change the rain to snow all the way to the coast in MA and NH before the precipitation comes to an end. I believe it will have the greatest chance of changing in the northern reaches of the I-495 belt eastward to the I-95 belt in northeastern MA and southeastern NH, but here it would be brief enough to limit snow accumulation at the very end of the event. Will monitor and update. See forecast periods below for expected accumulations. I expect all precipitation to be done by around midnight. Once the system accelerates away, look for strong and gusty winds overnight and into Friday, which will gradually diminish later Friday. Any snow on the ground and standing water will start to freeze up in the early hours of Friday. With luck some of the pavements will dry quickly in the strong and gusty wind, but be aware of potential icy areas Friday morning, even where snow did not fall. Looking ahead to the final day of 2016 on Saturday, a weak system will approach from the west and may bring a few snow showers to the region later at night, though it may be mild enough for a few rain drops near the South Coast. This will exit early Sunday, the first day of 2017, with a generally dry and pleasant day expected as high pressure moves in, but this will quickly slip off to the east and a broad area of low pressure organizing to the southwest will spread cloudiness into the region during Monday, and depending on timing, it may get wet before the day is over.
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain develops west to east morning-midday with minor accumulation of snow possible in higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH, then rain dominant except in highest elevations for most of the day. Highs 33-45, coldest in highest elevations of north central MA and southern NH, mildest Cape Cod. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH, increasing to 15-25 MPH in southeastern MA late.
TONIGHT: Overcast evening. Mix/snow highest elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, rain elsewhere, then changing to mix/snow eastward across northern MA and southern NH but remaining as mainly rain elsewhere, then all ending southwest to northeast by midnight. Snow accumulations of a coating to 2 inches mainly west of I-95 in southeastern NH and northeastern MA as well as the hills of central and south central MA and northern CT, building to 4-8 inches in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Becoming partly cloudy overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to NE then NW to the west of the storm track, SW then W to the east of the storm track, eventually W all areas 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH except 50-55 MPH southeastern MA later at night.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Watch for icy areas on untreated surfaces especially morning. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-26. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow showers except rain showers South Coast. Lows 27-35.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers South Coast early. Highs 38-46.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/ice late day or night. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-43.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)
Complex but weak storm system brings a chance of rain at least early January 3 before fair and slightly colder weather returns later and continues January 4-5. Next unsettled weather threat comes late in the period with odds favoring rain over snow.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)
Unsettled weather most likely to start and end this period with dry weather in between. Temperatures near to above normal.