Thursday Forecast

85 Comments

10:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)
Here is your forecast update which includes weather for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Kwanzaa, the start of Hanukkah, Boxing Day, and even St. Stephen’s Day if you’re from Ireland. 😉 Happy Holidays to all of you!
The discussion is essentially unchanged from yesterday’s update, so expansion of details will take place in comments following this forecast update. Here it is.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of light snow/mix with minor accumulation in some locations mainly Boston/Providence northwestward morning and midday, and mix/rain areas to the southeast midday and afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W late with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers which may end as a mix especially northwest of Boston then partial clearing later. Lows 22-30. Highs 38-45.
SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Highs 38-45.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 20-28. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)
Storm track is north of the region and fronts associated with these systems pass through here early December 27 and likely December 29 based on current timing of systems. Rain showers are most likely, but some mix/snow cannot be ruled out. No major storms. Coldest day likely December 28 and 30, otherwise temperatures mostly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)
The same general pattern is expected with an overall milder than average regime and short-lived light to moderate precipitation events, favoring rain, a couple times.

85 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK.

    Visibility is lowering dramatically here. It just looks like it wants to snow any second,
    yet NOTHING. It looks like I could reach up a bit and it would be snowing.
    Looking at the sky, you can see it IS snowing up there.

      1. I do see some moisture on the streets below, but I can’t see
        anything coming down.

        Still 35 at my house, so I am EXPECTING SNOW, despite what
        you just posted. 😀

  4. We will have a widespread white Christmas in 2017. These “green” Christmas patterns have to end sooner or later.

  5. Is it ever DARK out there. NOTHING yet. I feel like a little kid on Christmas eve
    waiting for Christmas. Where’s the Snow? Where’s the Snow?

      1. According to all of the models, the conditions are not there for
        sleet. Either SNOW or RAIN depending upon boundary layer
        conditions.

  10. It’s either doing NOTHING now OR it has gone over to a little light rain.
    MOST of the precip seems to be sliding NORTH of here. Now there’s a surprise.

  12. SNOWING nicely now with visibility about 1 mile.

    Yes, despite the radar showing RAIN! HE HE HE HA HA HA 😀 😀 😀

      1. Temps above freezing and “should” it stay all SNOW, it won’t snow long enough to accumulate. (imho anyway).

        Translation: Don’t bother

          1. I am probably incorrect – although with a 6 year old at home you’d think I would have this one down no problem!

  14. The 6Z GFS parallel also has a colder solution for 12/29 and hints at getting closer
    to the Euro solution.

    I am most curious to see what the Euro has to say about the 29th.

    1. “Could” be interesting 1/15 through about 2/15. We shall see.

      I don’t see much (except “possibly” 12/29 and that’s a stretch) through about 1/7.

      We shall see after that. 😀 Looking forward to it.

      1. we been lacking the high pressure to the north needed to bump the energy off to the coast so far this winter. Its been a lot of parent low’s moving over the lakes with weak secondary development or none at all/to far north. It stinks of 2012 in terms of storm track. Cooler than 12.

    1. You know, now that I look at it more carefully, is that a little bubble of
      high pressure? I think it might be.

  19. 12Z Euro for the 29th. CLOSE, but no Cigar. Nice dump for Up North, but NOT here.
    Redevelopment takes place just inland from the coast. Need about a 50-100
    mile shift to the East. IF anything there will be NO re-development OR it will take
    place even farther inland. We can’t win for nothing!

    In any case, here is the surface map and the 24 hour snow totals for the 29th.

    http://imgur.com/a/kDpia

  21. JP Dave that is a nice 6 inch snow event in my area. Hopefully there is a change to get you in on the accumulating snow. This is no where near the final solution and I would not be surprised if its a rainorama for my area.

    1. It all depends upon where, when and IF there is re-development.
      Intially, the 850mb temps are AOK, so if there is development in the right
      location, it could/would be SNOW. NO development OR development too far inland spells RAIN.

      Frankly, I am leaning towards RAIN for ALL of SNE, but it is still a bit off, so
      I remain hopeful.

  22. Yesterday 12z EURO had no accumulating snow for my area. Today different story. I smell a rainorama but am hopeful for a snoworama.

  23. Vicki there are snow banks and some of the lawns have touches of snow but I think with the rain on Saturday only the snow banks will remain. 7 inches of snow fell here last Saturday.

        1. He seems to lack confidence or be jumping on small model shifts, and relying too much on the ECMWF as well.

  25. I am not sure Philip but reading this tweet from NY NJ PA weather there looks to be opportunities for snow with that set up. Here is that tweet.
    Evening Thoughts for December 22, 2016: Snow threats are growing! Torch? What torch?

    1. That’s the 29th event for which I have been posting. This is the 1st GFS run
      that shows the redevelopment. Now we need the development to slide
      some more to the East.

      1. That’s not the type of redevelopment that would really do much for snow in that setup. It’s a very progressive pattern and basically just an over-forecasting of triple-point development. That scenario will very likely be mild. CMC probably has a better feel right now.

  27. I realized that after the post. The second one I wanted to posted was the one that showed some snow at the end of that system.

  28. Ice buoy at 88.4 N : temp of -3.4C or 25.9F showing that warm surge near the Pole that has been mentioned in news articles. Data from psc.apl.washington.edu

          1. They do one at Rexhame Beach every New Years Day. There was a recent New Years Day that was very cold, in the teens, and my daughter did the polar plunge. I can’t even watch. 🙂 🙂

            2. They do one at Humarock also. I didn’t know rexhame had one too. Your daughter is very brave. My niece did it in her dads memory the year we spent January at Humarock…2012. Water was 46

  29. New post!

    Don’t go looking for any big snowstorms for quite a while. As the long range forecast stated, southeastern New England is not going to be the place for big snow. If you want more flakes, head way north. In other words, the pattern is behaving exactly as expected heading from the early to middle portion of meteorological winter.

Comments are closed.