8:53AM

They say the averages are made from the extremes, and this is true, but once in a while a season is “average” because there are not really any extremes, and this is such a Summer. Temperatures continue to run fairly close to normal for the season as a whole, but without heat waves and without really any heat at all – heat referring to days near or above 90. But we have not had all that many days that have sat far below the normal either. And nighttime temperatures have often been around the normals as well. Rainfall, though variable in spots, typical for Summer, is not all that far from normal in most locations. There has been some newsworthy events, of course (Revere tornado, flash flooding in heavy rain events, etc.), but this is not unusual either. These events are not rare in a general sense, though in a specific sense, some are (such as an EF-2 tornado basically on the coast).

The pattern we have been in this Summer, keeping heat at bay, is going to continue for another week or so before signs of change appear. This pattern has been driven by the tendency for a high pressure ridge over Greenland, allowing regular dips in the jet stream over eastern Canada and the northeastern USA, enough to keep any prolonged heat out of the Northeast. This pattern goes on for a while longer, with one trough over the region now, and an associated disturbance passing through the region on Sunday with a threat of showers. A low pressure area coming out of the Ohio Valley by Monday will pass south of New England later Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more cloudiness to the region, and perhaps some wet weather to the South Coast / Cape Cod, but odds favor this staying just offshore at this time. And later in the week this low will depart and with high pressure to the north yet another low to the south may need to be watched.

A large scale pattern change may lurk not far behind this, as it appears that the high pressure ridge will break down in Greenland and be replaced by an upper level low pressure system. It is ironic that we may be talking about some heat and humidity as August winds down, September approaches, and school bells begin to ring.

Forecast for southeastern New England….

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible interior MA and southwestern NH late. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning-midday. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 80.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 60. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Decreasing clouds. Low 58. High 77.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 76.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 75.

5:32PM original post

2:20AM update

Only 2 “weather systems”, i.e., fronts or lows, will impact the region during the next 7 days. The first is an upper low that will take its sweet time getting through the region (Friday-Sunday). But it’s not bad news. All it is going to do is cause some cloudiness and a few showers at times through early Friday, and grab a surface low and frontal system and swing it through during Sunday with an additional chance of showers.

The next one will likely be a low pressure area passing south of the region toward the middle of next week – but it’s too early for details on this now.

Oh, and again there are no heatwaves in sight. In fact, no 90 degree temps are expected during the next 7 days.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a risk of a brief thunderstorm. Lows in the 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 55-62. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain south? Low 58. High 76.

THURSDAY: Decreasing clouds. Early rain south? Low 60. High 80.

7:36AM

Low pressure moves through the region today. Frequent showers, some heavy, will be the biggest concern as some flash flooding may occur. There will be some embedded thunder with a slight risk of damaging wind in any storms, but this is a not likely to be a widespread problem.

The upper level low pressure will take a couple days to cross the region Thursday and especially Friday with some additional clouds at times, and perhaps a shower on Friday.

The weekend looks great with high pressure in control Saturday and a weak front crossing the region Sunday with no more than a passing shower expected, but also mostly dry weather.

The early part of next week looks warmer as high pressure tries to build offshore.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy with frequent showers and embedded thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours. Temperatures steady 65-72. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH inland 10-20 MPH with higher gusts along the coast. Splash over possible at the time of high tide.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with  many showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s to near 80. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 75.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 78.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 60. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

3:16PM

Sorry for the delay. So without further ado, here is a quick and to-the-point version of my usual Sunday night look at the coming 7 days.

With today mostly done, just summarizing that the end of the afternoon may see a few isolated showers as a sea breeze interacts with a southerly breeze inland and pops some clouds. This will come to an end by evening.

A deep trough (for this time of year) will drop through the Midwest and Great Lakes then swing through the Northeast Tuesday through Thursday. The wet day here will be Wednesday, with rain and thunderstorms. With this set-up, some embedded isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, with wind damaging being the primary threat. This is something that will be watched. Dry air will flow in from the west as the trough still hangs around Thursday then lingers Friday, with some diurnal clouds around each day. At this time, new weekend looks fair and dry with just some clouds popping up around sea breeze boundaries aided by the fact that a weakened version of the trough will still be hanging around.

REST OF AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Temperatures 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 inland. Wind light S to SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain late. Lows in the 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms. Highs 70-75. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 56-63. Highs 72-80.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-62. Highs 74-82.

4:18PM

The cold pool is gone, but the sea breeze front (where edge of sea breeze meets a land breeze) has been responsible for causing some pop up clouds again during the day Saturday, but no heavy showers, just a risk of an isolated sprinkle prior to sunset. Once the sun goes, the clouds will do so as well and a clear and coolish night will follow as high pressure builds over the region. This will lead to a spectacular weather day Sunday, high pressure in control, mild to warm air and lots of sun, with just some coastal sea breezes and a few clouds popping up (less than Saturday).

Once we get to Monday, this high will have slipped further offshore and started to open the door to a more southerly flow, albeit weak, with a slight increase in humidity but still plenty of sun and a few clouds during the day. Tuesday, the south to southwest wind will increase a bit between this departing high pressure area and an approaching cold front from the west.  The trough of low pressure driving the surface low that parents this cold front will dig deeper than usual into the Great Lakes and Midwest, as several previous troughs have done. This will push the front into the region Wednesday, which will be a shower and thunderstorm day. The front should push through the region by early Thursday, but another pool of chilly air above will have to cross the region Thursday and Friday, and though this will probably not be as cold and potent as the one we just saw, it will probably be enough to cause pop up clouds/showers Thursday, and some additional pop up clouds Friday. A very early look at next weekend looks promising, providing that trough moves along.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH EVENING: Clouds and an isolated sprinkle/shower possible mainly northwest of Boston otherwise partly cloudy to mostly clear. Temperatures coast down through the 70s, upper 60s coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes dying out.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Bright nearly-full moon. Lows in the 50s, lower 60s urban areas and immediate shoreline. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny through midday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 75 beaches to 80-85 inland. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A few evening clouds otherwise clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86, cooler South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 79.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered PM showers. Low 61. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 80.

9:34PM

An anomalous pool of cold air almost literally put Winter above Summer Thursday, as the air which was only a little cooler than normal for much of the day at ground level was much colder than average aloft. This made the atmosphere unstable and allowed showers and thunderstorms to pop up. The lack of haze allowed for great visibility and viewing of storms which included spectacular cloud formations, heavy downpours, lightning, and hail. Not every place saw these conditions, yet some saw them more than once. It all depended on where you were in relation to the storms.

Now to look ahead. The chilly pool of air will be moving away to the east but its western edge still still be over eastern MA and NH on Friday, allowing additional clouds to pop up with another risk of showers and thunderstorms. Activity will not be as widespread as it was Thursday.

The weekend: High pressure dominates with fantastic Summer weather – low to moderate humidity, lots of sun, mild to warm air.

Early  next week: High pressure starts to slip offshore allowing warmth and humidity to increase.

Middle next week: Frontal system and another advancing trough brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms with a cooling trend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 50s, around 60 urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, then sun/cloud mix with a risk of isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly afternoon favoring eastern MA and southeastern NH. Highs 73-81, mildest interior eastern MA and interior southern NH. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NW.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind light W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-63. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind light S with sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 80.

7:43AM

Quick forecast update, full discussion and new forecast later today…

TODAY: Lots of clouds with isolated showers morning. Partly sunny with a couple opportunities for scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Any storm may be strong. Highs 70s to lower 80s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Wind light NW to N.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers & t-storms. Highs 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Low 58. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 86.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 87.

11:30PM

As talked about in the previous blog, a trough of low pressure will slowly traverse the Northeast this week, with somewhat unsettled weather as we transition from warmer and slightly more humid air Tuesday into Wednesday to cooler and a drying trend later in the week. The only change is going to be to add a chance of a few lingering showers to Friday’s forecast. The weekend still looks great! An offshore frontal system will help steer Tropical Storm Bertha to the north then northeast between the East Coast and Bermuda, with the only impact being some increased ocean swells and rip currents later in the week at the beaches.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers/t-storms. Any showers and storms could produce downpours. Highs 73-80 South Coast, South Shore, and Cape Cod, 80-87 elsewhere. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-68. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable, mainly SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers & t-storms. Low 60. High 78.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Low 58. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 86.

8:12PM

Well here we are at the end of the first weekend of August. Summer’s rolling along and whether you like heat or not, I bet you are wondering why we haven’t had any prolonged spells of heat. It’s just not the pattern this year. The various atmospheric indices have combined and conspired to produce a southward-displaced jet stream and frequent troughs dropping from Canada into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, or Northeast. This has kept heat in check. This same general pattern will continue into the middle of August. But pulling back a bit it’s time to look at the upcoming 7 days for the weather systems and resultant weather during this time.

We’ll continue to have that old frontal boundary sitting offshore early in the week, and a broad but weak trough of low pressure traversing the Northeast from west to east. It will take 4 days (through Thursday) to do this, so there will be daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though it certainly will not rain much of the time, and some nice weather will also take place. By the time we get to Friday, the trough should be exiting to the east and a push of dry, cooler air will arrive. This sets up what looks at this time to be a great weekend as high pressure dominates. Again there is no major heat in sight.

Also, Tropical Storm Bertha will be taking a track between the US East Coast and Bermuda, passing well southeast of New England about midweek. The only impact will be some increased surf and rip current risks later in the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog.Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible morning-midday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 72-79 South Coast, southeastern MA, and East Coast beaches, 79-85 elsewhere. Wind mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. Lows 60-66. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 70s Cape Cod and coastal areas, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to general showers/thunderstorms especially late. Low 65. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Pop up afternoon showers. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 78.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

2:51AM

Brief update for now with a full discussion to be posted this evening with The Week Ahead.

Minor change for today – more showers further northwestern than expected, so a little on the wet side this morning, and less so this afternoon.

Approaching trough from the west and still a weakness in the pressure field along the coast will keep the risk of unsettled weather going for much of the coming week through Thursday, but shower activity will just be isolated to scattered with no long-lasting rain. Tropical Storm Bertha will move from the north central Caribbean into the eastern Bahamas today, then curve north to northeast between Bermuda and the US East Coast by the middle of the coming week. This path will keep the wind/rain from the storm well offshore but may increase surf and rip currents at the beaches by later in the week.

Low pressure trough may be slow to leave so some clouds and a shower may hang around even on Friday. High pressure should arrive by the start of next weekend with some nice weather!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Limited sun – lots of clouds. Episodes of showers, possible in any areas this morning but favoring southeastern areas overall through the day. Highs in the 70s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 80.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 58. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

9:47AM

A frontal system will be just offshore through the weekend and it looks like it will remain east of southeastern New England, keeping this area on the cloudier, cooler side. We’ll also be dealing with areas of rain sliding up along the front, most notably today, which will be the wettest day, coverage-wise, with rain for a good portion of RI, eastern MA, and southern NH to some extent, into the afternoon before the area pushes back to the east and out of the region. Clouds may even break late in the day with a few areas possibly (no promises) seeing some sun before it sets. With temperature and dew point hanging out around each other tonight, we cannot rule out areas of fog forming. It looks like clouds will be the rule Sunday but most of the rain should stay offshore, with another patchy area possibly forming but staying to the west of the region. This should leave southeastern New England in between with just a slight risk of showers.

The front that sits just to the east during the weekend likely dissipates by Monday as a  new trough from the west pushes into the region, but takes 4 days to pass by. What does this mean? It means humid, but not hot, and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday. Details and timing will be worked out as each day moves closer.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with rain ranging from steadiest and moderate at times in southeastern MA and RI to lighter and more occasional further north and west. Decreasing rain from west to east mid afternoon with all areas rain-free by day’s end, lots of clouds still remaining but some breaking clouds with even some sun possible later on. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable to mostly E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Daily risk of showers/t-storms. Overnight lows mainly 60s. Daytime highs middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low around 60. High around 80.

2:17AM

The next 2 days we will be under the influence of a very weak high pressure area but still in between a frontal boundary and another trough of low pressure to the west. The energy from the west will be enough to set off a round or 2 of pop up showers and possible thunderstorms each of the next 2 afternoons (today and Friday). Most areas will not see anything as coverage will be isolated to scattered, but anywhere that does see something could experience a downpour. The greatest threat for these pop ups will be along and northwest of a line from Providence RI to Boston MA.

By Saturday, the offshore frontal boundary will back up toward the coast, likely increasing the cloudiness over the region. The wildcard is how much rain gets involved, and there will be the chance of areas of rain, but at this stage my guess is that the greatest chance for this rain will be over Cape Cod and southeastern MA and less so elsewhere. Sunday, the boundary, though weak, will likely push further northwestward into the region, and it should be a muggy day with lots of clouds, some sun, and occasional showers and thunderstorms. This may linger into Monday as the front washes out over eastern New England. By Tuesday into midweek, weak high pressure should return and bring fair weather.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially inland areas. Highs 74-82, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, again mainly inland. Highs 75-83, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain at times, especially southeastern MA. Low 64. High 78.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

1:21AM

As July winds down and August approaches we’ll be dealing with the same issue, and that is watching the boundary of cool air to the west associated with a Great Lakes and Midwest low pressure trough, and warmer air to the east associated with upper level high pressure. Where the boundary lies will determine the weather in southeastern New England in the days ahead. For the most part this boundary will be far enough east that the focus of any serious rain will be well offshore, and only a few pop up showers are expected daily the next few days. There are some indications that retrogression (westward movement) of the pattern will take place over the weekend with eventually a better chance of wet weather, but there is still some uncertainty. For now, going to go with some wet weather, favoring the second half, but not a wash out of a weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers, especially inland. Highs 70s to near 80, coolest coast. Wind variable around 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm, again mainly inland areas. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly S, 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated PM showers/thunderstorms inland. Low 63. High 82, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM showers, mainly inland. Low 64. High 81, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, slight risk t-storms. Low 63. High 80, coolest South Coast.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM showers/t-storms. Low 64. High 84, cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85, cooler coast.

10:30PM

Eventful weather Monday. You know all about it by now, so we won’t spend any time going there on the discussion here, however feel free to continue to talk about it in the comments!

Now it’s time to look ahead. And first we have drier air sweeping in behind departing low pressure, that will make a very pleasant Tuesday. Narrow high pressure will hold its ground between a frontal boundary offshore in a trough to the west Wednesday through Friday with fair weather resulting, again with the lack of heat. By the weekend, we may see a squeeze-play as the front offshore tries to back westward and the trough to the west tries to push eastward, resulting in at least more cloudiness. It’s unclear this far in advance if any wet weather will become involved. High pressure may strengthen somewhat by early next week with a more typical feel of early August.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers mainly far NW of Boston through midnight, then clearing. Drier. Lows 55-63, coolest NW suburbs of Boston through interior southern NH. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-63, coolest interior valleys. Wind light W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 80, cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of showers Cape Cod. Low 63. High 80, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of showers interior MA/NH. Low 64. High 82, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 84, cooler South Coast.

6:41PM

This Summer’s weather could be a whole lot worse given the lack of high pressure ridging and the number of low pressure troughs coming through. We have seen temperatures not that far from normal overall, and despite some episodes of severe storms, we have not seen too much in the way of very nasty or excessively wet weather. And the coming week will be representative of the Summer up to this point – a bit of storminess, some great weather, and a lack of heat.

The stormy day will be Monday, because a low pressure area has to cut right across New England and this will bring many showers and some thunderstorms. There is a slight risk of some briefly severe storms, but widespread severe weather is unlikely as the timing of the activity will be before maximum  heating and other factors influencing severe storms and allowing them to form and sustain themselves will be mostly borderline. Nevertheless, keep an eye on current conditions during the day Monday should any severe storms develop.

The upper level trough responsible for sending Monday’s low pressure area through here is another one that is deeper than average, like the recent one, and will be hanging around the Great Lakes for a few days while slowly weakening. But dry air on the back side of the departing low Monday night will sweep into southeastern New England on Tuesday, which will be a very nice Summer day with lower humidity and mild air.

A weak area of high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday, keeping the weather fair, as the trough continues to weaken to the west and high pressure starts to build off the Atlantic Coast. This type of set-up is a fair weather one with sea breezes in coastal areas.

Later in the week expect a slow weakening of the trough to the west to continue while a slow strengthening of high pressure takes place offshore. It does not evolve into the classic summertime Bermuda High set up at this point but is enough to bring generally fair and mild to warm weather for the end of the week, though a disturbance may try to get going between these upper level systems to bring at least some cloudiness to the region by next weekend, though so far it looks largely rain-free.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouds push eastward across the region early then decrease for a while before increasing again from the southwest later. Showers/thunderstorms southwest of Boston before dawn. Areas of low clouds and fog forming as well. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, especially through midday then less so in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s coastal areas, around 80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Highs 72-79, coolest coast.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85, coolest coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Cape Cod showers? Lows 60-67. Highs 74-81, coolest coast.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM t-storms interior? Lows 61-68. Highs 77-84, coolest coast.