Where The Boundary Lies

85 Comments

1:21AM

As July winds down and August approaches we’ll be dealing with the same issue, and that is watching the boundary of cool air to the west associated with a Great Lakes and Midwest low pressure trough, and warmer air to the east associated with upper level high pressure. Where the boundary lies will determine the weather in southeastern New England in the days ahead. For the most part this boundary will be far enough east that the focus of any serious rain will be well offshore, and only a few pop up showers are expected daily the next few days. There are some indications that retrogression (westward movement) of the pattern will take place over the weekend with eventually a better chance of wet weather, but there is still some uncertainty. For now, going to go with some wet weather, favoring the second half, but not a wash out of a weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers, especially inland. Highs 70s to near 80, coolest coast. Wind variable around 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm, again mainly inland areas. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly S, 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated PM showers/thunderstorms inland. Low 63. High 82, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM showers, mainly inland. Low 64. High 81, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, slight risk t-storms. Low 63. High 80, coolest South Coast.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM showers/t-storms. Low 64. High 84, cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85, cooler coast.

85 thoughts on “Where The Boundary Lies”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. The weekend is looking a little rough though as you said some of the heavier rain will be offshore. We have had a lot of good weekends this summer so no complaints. Thanks again.

    1. Yup. Down the road the CMC has a decent storm at out latitude, though well off shore. Euro and GFS do NOT have it. At 126 hours, the 2 hurricane models
      have it at various strengths of Tropical storm status.

      CMC @ 12Z Aug 6

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=180

      GFDL @ 6Z aug 4

      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2014073000-invest93l/slp21.png

      HWRF @ 6Z Aug 4

      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2014073000-invest93l/slp21.png

  3. Thank you TK. I am trying desperately to keep the rain away. Leaky roof.
    Roofing contractor secured, just waiting for job to be scheduled and the sooner the better!

    NO RAIN, please.

    1. GREAT finish. Thank you OS. And yep—-it is merely a cycle in which we share absolutely no responsibility.

  5. The Red Sox are out of their minds to let Lester go. This is insanity. What cheap bastards!!

    1. Yup I agree. He was to start tonight but has been scratched. Makes no sense. Some pitcher will come here who we never even heard of.

  6. Just read Eric Fisher’s blog about the tornado. Awesome. We are so lucky to have him!
    I wonder if most people understand how GOOD he is?????

    Please excuse me for repeating, but Eric talked about how this storm could have
    been warned at 9:34 and NOT at 9:44 when the NWS put out the warning.

    I was lucky enough to be monitoring NEXRAD radar and took a screen shot of the storm radial velocity at precisely 9:34! (see time stamp) It CLEARLY shows tight rotation. It SHOULD have been absolutely WARNED at this point for certain. In all honestly this storm should have been warned earlier when it was in the far SW suburbs of Boston.

    http://i.imgur.com/t7CnD6j.png

    1. He’s excellent OS. I was reading his blog last night and i thought it was his best yet!

    2. Agree that he is amazing – not only as a met but in the way he educates the viewer. OS – can you send him that screen shot. He seems very interested in viewer comments/contributions and tends to comment to posters on his blog often.

  7. Thanks TK. Your blog is excellent as well! Your title reminds me of the book Where the Red Fern Grows

  8. Thank you TK – hope you enjoyed the fireworks last night. I didn’t know the canal was 100 years old.

  10. Between the two American Models 6z runs only NAM showing any CAPE and Lift for thunderstorm development tomorrow. NAM Cape around 1,000 and Lift around -4
    If anything looks more like showers maybe a rumble of thunder.

      1. CMC as far as track goes, is the northern outlier. Ironically, it ends up in about the same location at hour 144 as the majority of other models

        1. Ok, But what I was getting at is that the CMC has been
          pretty good about forecasting these things WELL in advance. It just seems to have been better than the other models in this regard.

          We shall see if it is full of crap or not.

          Btw, the GFDL has it at 53 knots (or about 61 mph) at 126 hours from last run or Aug 4. And where it is located at that time is over WARM water. Of course, I can’t speak to whether or not conditions would be
          favorable or not at that time.

          http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2014073006-invest93l/slp21.png

    1. Yes i agree JJ. Mike’s weather facebook page noted improving conditions for intensification, but unless that dry air gets out of that area soon, it will have a tough time.

  14. This Jon Lester thing is driving me nuts! Unless there’s a “wink wink” “nod nod” thing going on where he gets traded for good prospects then comes back and signs with the Sox in the offseason, I can’t see letting this guy go. They will not get a fair return for him IMO since teams know there’s a chance they won’t be able to re-sign him. And with the watered down talent in baseball right now, top of the line prospects are far from a guarantee. I just don’t it. Ok, rant over 🙂

    1. I agree. Your not going to get big prospects for a guy like Jon Lester who may very well be a rental player for a team.
      A pitcher like David Price of Tampa you will get bigger prospects since he still has a year left on the contract but I don’t
      see Tampa trading him now with this surge they have had. They were 18 games under 500 in early June now only a game
      under 500 and playing the best baseball in the AL East.

        1. Which part? The Sox have told every contending team what it will take to get Lester but that doesn’t mean they will agree. If I was the GM of another team, there’s no way in hell I give up any high level prospects for Lester unless I knew without a doubt I would sign him long term the minute the trade went through. Lester’s camp made a mistake by saying he wants to be in Boston, major complications during any negotiations, especially trades. IMO, he will not get traded for this reason. Much hype around this, but in the end it will all be for nothing.

          1. Will be interesting to see what happens as we approach tomorrow’s 4pm non waiver trade deadline.
            Of course trades could still be made in August if a player could clear waivers.

            1. IIRC, the big deal that sent Beckett, Crawford, and Gonzalez to LA happened after the deadline sometime in Aug

          2. I disagree. Lester gets traded before the deadline.
            HOPE HE STAYS and I hope you are CORRECT.

  15. Excellent evening at the canal. I wish I’d been able to spend more time there but the work schedule of my buddies prevented an earlier departure. That’s ok! It was still great to be able to share a short time of the Centennial celebration with the rest of the people there.

  16. Must have more smoke above us today. The clear parts of the sky certainly look milk white, as opposed to blue.

  18. Im seeing conflicting forecasts for rain this weekend. Some say saturday, some sunday, some a complete washout.

    1. Sunday does NOT look good. GFS now has RAIN, whereas yesterday it
      was only the Euro. I’m NOT pleased at ALL!!!

        1. I’m Ok with Saturday, just NOT SUNDAY!!!

          I don’t like getting wet when I fish, period.

          Rain Rain go away, come back another day, like after Labor Day. I HATE RAIN!

    2. From NWS:

      US National Weather Service Boston MA
      2 hrs ·
      Tough forecast for this weekend. Does a heavy rain threat move in Saturday, or hold off till Sunday? Tricky setup, looking like a washout. We’ll have forecast details later this afternoon. Have the umbrellas handy if you’re heading out for some weekend festivities.

      1. What I get from that is they have no clue what day it will rain, but whatever day it does rain it will be a washout

        1. Agreed. Pretty silly isn’t it?
          If one doesn’t know WHICH DAY how the bleep can one
          tell it WILL be a washout when it does rain?

          These guys are out of their minds!

  19. Tropical Invest area with lowered chances for development. Down to 50% chance from 70%.

  20. Hey Charlie, with these cooler nights down into the 50s and no real summertime heat in sight, is it time to start thinking about late summer/fall lawn care? Or is it still too soon?

  21. Some CAPE and Lift being shown by 12z runs of NAM and GFS but nothing impressive. NAM a little more aggressive with CAPE and Lift for tomorrow. I would not rule out some rumbles of thunder tomorrow but more in the way of scattered showers than thunderstorms for tomorrow.

  22. A quick comment on last night’s commentary.
    You all worked things out as far as I can tell very nicely.
    It’s very easy to misunderstand people when typing online.
    All of you are important to this blog and I enjoy having you here.
    Thanks for setting a good example.

    If I missed something that I need to know about, let me know.

    This blog will have its own email address soon, but for now you can reach me at
    tk8888@hotmail.com with anything you wish to discuss privately.

    I TRY to remember to check that email daily – but be patient if it takes a few days to get a reply. 🙂

    1. Tk putting out your email for private conversations is a great idea and personly long overdue thanks. Was the blog down around 3:30 as I could not get on.

      2. It was down for maintenance. 🙂 Not on this end, but by the group of techies that run the servers.

  23. Thanks Old Salty for posting your personal experience and those residents of Brookline/Chestnut Hill regarding the tornado on August 9, 1972. It was very informative and I am quite surprised that this weather event has been kept so hidden over the years even though it was on a relatively small scale. The only reason I knew about it was from a Mark Rosenthal article in yesterday’s Boston Herald. Considering the tornado traveled down route 9 for a brief time, it is amazing there was not more damage or loss of life. Too bad about the young girl who was killed after trying to hide and stay safe. 🙁

    I was almost 12 years old at the time but I don’t even vaguely remember hearing about that tornado.

    1. I was considerably older and I don’t remember it but my focus was on dating and guys…..or at least that is my excuse and I’m sticking to it 🙂

        1. Mac and I met in fall of 1974 but we were just friends for a long while. Don’t tell anyone. I was engaged to someone else 🙂

    2. Philip,

      Thank you. I remember it like it was yesterday and it is a shame
      that girl was killed.

      It was a miracle no one was killed or even seriously injured with the
      Revere tornado.

    1. Harvey has two scenarios:

      #1 – Widespread rain throughout all of SNE…a total washout for Saturday. 🙁

      #2 – Rain for Cape only and the rest of us stay dry. 😀

      Harvey did not say which scenario is more likely at this time.

      2. No WAY scenario #2 comes to be. With my luck and leaky roof,
        we’ll need an ARK this weekend!!! Bank on it!

    2. John, I’m sorry, but there is so much model divergence it is difficult.

      I’m thinking it could be wet both days.

      We shall see.

              1. Yup, just came in from building my ARK!! Phew! I need a cold one. Oops I don’t drink. AN Italian Ice
                will have to do. 😀

    1. John,

      I was just looking at some charts. They’re all over the place.
      Maybe tomorrow it will be clearer.

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