4:16PM

While the overall pattern remains dry and on the chilly side in southeastern New England, there are interruptions, with one such interruption starting out the new week early Monday. This will be a strong cold front passing through from west to east Monday morning, with numerous showers, possible thunderstorms, and some gusty winds, along with very mild air through the middle of the day. Thankfully, we will not see the severe weather including tornadoes that occurred in the Midwest/Ohio Valley during Sunday. Once the front gets by the region around midday, we’ll see a transition to clearing, cooling, and drying, with colder air moving in by nightfall. This sets up a chilly but quiet pattern Tuesday into late week. Look for another frontal system to bring some rain/snow showers around the start of next weekend and a reinforcing shot of windy/cold air (timing uncertain this far out).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Periodic rain showers, then a more solid band of showers and possible thunderstorms arriving from west to east between 4AM and 6AM. Temperatures steady in the 50s. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy through late morning with numerous showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms. Clearing from west to east midday through mid afternoon then some scattered clouds crossing the sky again from west to east later in the afternoon. Highs 60-68 in the morning, then cooling into and through the 50s during the afternoon. Wind S 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH in the morning, shifting to W in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 46.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 48.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 32. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 44.

9:49AM

A mild weekend, clouds departing by midday Saturday as a disturbance exits the region, but clouds return during Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. Tropical moisture flowing northward ahead of this front may bring showers as early as Sunday afternoon and night, with the main showers and possible thunderstorms with the cold front coming through from west to east during the first half of the day Monday. This timing is a little faster than indicated on the last update. A transition back to colder weather takes place the second half of Monday with a dry and chilly episode of weather for Tuesday through the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

TODAY: Decreasing clouds through midday. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-40, coldest inland valleys. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms AM / breaking clouds PM. Low 50. High 65.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 44.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 49.

8:42PM

A short-lived but sharp cold snap is about to leave us as the air warms up through Friday. First, high-level warming will send some high and middle cloudiness into the region early Thursday, with more sun in the afternoon when you will notice that it is milder (50 as opposed to the 30s of Wednesday). The moderation will continue through Friday with a moderate westerly breeze with most areas maxing out between 50 and 60 degrees. High pressure will rebuild from the north on Saturday, which will be a slightly cooler day than Friday. Once we get to Sunday, this ridge will battle an approaching trough from the west, and try to hold off cloudiness from it, so Sunday’s forecast, though probably dry, is a little iffy in terms of sky condition. Once we make it to Monday, the trough will push in and we should be windy and wet, though fairly mild. Lurking behind that is another turn to cold air, which will come in 2 stages during “transition Tuesday”. The first shot will ease in during the day as the axis of wet weather tries to shift offshore, though may be delayed by a low pressure wave. With this so many days out, trying to get detailed will not serve much purpose, so suffice it to say for now that we may have to deal with some additional rain and possibly snow. A shot of arctic air will arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday, and may be colder than the one that we are just saying goodbye to.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear early. Variably cloudy overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs in the 40s, may touch 50 in some locations. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s, may touch 60 in a few areas. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 54.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 41. High 54.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, may end as snow. Low 38. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 17. High 34.

7:24AM

Arctic cold front bringing a little snow to the region this morning then wind today and cold for the remainder of today through tomorrow before a warm-up commences and lasts into late week. Pattern is still dry as high pressure dominates overall.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow tapers off NW of Boston earliest, around and south of Boston about midday, and rain/mix/snow toward Cape Cod diminishing during the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1/2 inch on unpaved surfaces. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 50.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 60.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.

5:28PM

Another week of changing temperatures but still not a lot of precipitation to show for it. So the overall dry pattern continues with a slowly building drought. The only weather system of note this week will be an arctic cold front that crosses the region from northwest to southeast Monday night and early Tuesday, bringing with it some rain and snow showers. An upper trough may hold lots of clouds in for Tuesday before high pressure takes over midweek (with a fresh batch of cold air over the region) and continues into late week (with moderating temperatures).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds evening. Decreasing clouds overnight. Lows 30-35 except 35-40 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY: Lots of sun morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting up to 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving from northwest to southeast then turning to snow showers except rain/mix showers southeastern MA and South Coast of MA & RI. Minor snow accumulation possible before dawn mainly in the northwestern suburbs of Boston through southern NH. Lows 30-35. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday then slow clearing northwest to southeast. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 19. High 39.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 27. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 51.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 50.

2:04AM

A wave of low pressure will pass north of New England this weekend but its broad circulation will send some clouds and possibly a few scattered rain showers through the region, along with a gusty breeze, especially Sunday. A cold front will approach late Monday and drive in some colder air for Tuesday into the middle of next week. A storm is likely to get going off the Atlantic Coast but will stay far out at sea (though should be watched in case it should come further north than currently expected).

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

WEEKEND: Variably cloudy – most sun Saturday AM & Sunday PM. Passing rain showers Saturday night & Sunday morning to early afternoon. Highs 45-50 Saturday. Lows 35-40 Saturday night. Highs 50-55 Sunday. Lows 30-35 Sunday night. Wind W 5-15 MPH through Saturday night, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts Sunday.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY: Sunshine then clouds arriving from the west late in the day with a chance of passing rain/snow showers at night. Highs around 50, colder at night.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30-35. High 40-45.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 50.

5:07PM

It’s a dry pattern. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We’re in a moderate drought in southeastern New England, but many won’t notice since we are rapidly moving away from the end of the growing season and still several months away from the next one. The drought is going to be a big issue in 2014 unless we have a wet Winter and/or Spring.

During the next 7 days, we’ll see temperature changes from the current chill to a mild midweek then back to a cooler weekend and early next week. The only “weather”, that is, precipitation, will be rain showers on Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Otherwise, quiet is the word.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog late. Lows in the 40s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Early fog burning off to variably cloudy in the morning then mostly cloudy with a period of showers from west to east midday & afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 48.

SATURDAY: Sunny AM; partly sunny PM. Low 29. High 49.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy AM; partly cloudy PM. Low 38. High 50.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 48.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

5:56PM

Weather changes the past several days brought some showers of rain, and even a few snowflakes. But what did not happen was any really beneficial precipitation. Nor will any take place this coming week, despite some additional weather changes. The weather pattern is just dry. It’s also mild overall, though the work week will start and end with a visit from cold air masses. And the weekend will probably feature an air mass change. The story will be written by a strong high pressure area to the north Monday, supplying cold and clear air, low pressure passing north of the region Thursday dragging a cold front across, with a moderating trend ahead of this front and a short but sharp cool-down behind it, and a very weak weather system that should pass north of the region sometime over the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows range from just below 20 inland valleys to just above 30 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25 inland valleys to 30-35 coast. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-53. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 60.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. PM showers. Low 50. High 67.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 35. High 49.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 36. High 48.

1:59AM

The mild air of Saturday is gone. A cold front passed by Saturday evening with rain showers and a drop in temperature. Some additional energy moving through the region Sunday morning will prolong cloudiness and some threat of rain showers over southern NH and eastern MA, with a snow shower possible interior higher elevations. Clouds will eventually decrease. Colder air will flow in on a gusty northerly breeze.

High pressure builds across the region Monday with the core of the cold air passing through and it will be a bright and cold early November day. More cloudiness is expected Tuesday as milder air comes in aloft. It will also moderate slightly at ground level and the day will not be as chilly as Monday. A more significant warm up is expected at midweek, but by late Thursday or early Friday a period of unsettled weather will mark a switch back to cooler air at the very end of the week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with scattered rain showers except rain or snow showers interior higher elevations. Decreasing clouds afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind N 10-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 30. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 60.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Showers/thunderstorms late. Low 53. High 70.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 50.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

5:27PM

Ups and downs in the temperature department during the first week of the new month with no major precipitation events. After Friday’s wind/shower/warm event, it will remain mild Saturday until a secondary cold front crosses the region Saturday night and throws a batch of colder air over the region for Sunday-Monday. Then we’ll reverse it and moderate toward the middle of next week back to above normal, before cooling again later next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouds southeastern MA and RI, partly cloudy to mostly clear to the northwest. Lows upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds linger southeastern MA before departing and a brief episode of rain possible outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. More sun but mixed with clouds at times elsewhere. Highs around 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds move back in from NW to SE. A rain shower in some areas late, may turn to a snow shower around dawn interior areas. Lows around 40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW by dawn.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 22. High 44.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 51.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 63.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Late rain shower. Low 50. High 70.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 50.

3:31PM

Mother Nature has decided it’s more of a trick than a treat for this Halloween Evening as an area of rain is racing into much of northern MA and southern NH, wetting areas especially north of the Mass Pike, with less activity in south central and southeastern MA and across RI. Enough activity is generating upstream to keep the chance of wet weather going, especially in northern MA and southern NH, right through the evening, then expanding into all areas during the night and through Friday morning. All the while, warm and humid air will be moving into the region on increasing southerly winds. After the low pressure area and frontal system responsible for this wet weather clears the region later Friday, we’ll have a period of drier weather, but a second cold front will cross the region Saturday night with more clouds and a rain shower risk as mild air will hang on until that front passes. By Sunday, we’ll be into a stronger northwest wind flow, transporting much cooler and drier weather.

A peak into next week shows that we’ll have a chilly start and a warming midweek with dry weather expected, as we start first with a cold airmass from Canada then build a ridge of high pressure along the East Coast, which may bring Indian Summer conditions by the middle of the week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THROUGH EVENING: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain especially Mass Pike northward, with a chance of showers to the south. Areas of fog. Temperatures around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Overcast with rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 55-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms through midday then a few lingering shower possible for the remainder of the afternoon hours. Areas of fog. Highs 70-75, 60s South Coast. Wind SW 15-30 MPH gusting  35-50 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind SW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 45. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain/snow showers. Low 35. High 50.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 25. High 45.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 65.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 75.

5:55PM

Several different kinds of weather will be observed around southeastern New England in the days ahead. High pressure cresting over the region will bring a cold night tonight, though the temperature fall will be capped by clouds increasing across the sky. These clouds may release a few sprinkles of rain or even snow in the area Wednesday morning, but have no worry. This will not hang around as it is just a quick-passing disturbance. By Wednesday night, it will have cleared again (with nice conditions for Game 6 of the World Series at Fenway Park), but that won’t last, because clouds will roll right back in on Thursday as a warm front approaches the region. The question becomes: Will it rain on trick-or-treat? For most of the region, although there is a chance of some light rain briefly passing through, it may remain largely rain-free during the early evening hours, with main shower activity holding off until very late at night, especially the further south and east you are. Warmer air will flood into the region Thursday night and Friday, but accompanied by showers, making the late-season warmth less enjoyable. That said, any rainfall is welcomed as we have been quite dry.

Looking into the weekend, the trough bringing the unsettled weather Thursday-Friday will be slow to exit, so we will see lots of clouds and a continued shower threat on Saturday, though it will remain mild. Sunday should be chilly and windy but drier as things shift to the east and a strengthening northwest wind takes over. Early  next week looks tranquil as high pressure dominates.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 20s inland valleys, 30s coast and urban areas. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Very light showers of rain or snow (mainly NW of Boston) possible in the morning through midday. Highs around 50. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Wind light variable.

**WEATHER FOR GAME 6 OF WORLD SERIES: Dry. Temperatures cooling through the 40s. Light wind.

THURSDAY: Clouding over. Highs around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

**WEATHER FOR TRICK OR TREAT: Cloudy. Showers possible after 7PM NW of Boston. Temperature in 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with numerous showers morning-midday. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Low 55. High 65.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 50. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 25. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 55.

12:10AM

A second version of the previous post with a few adjustments.

Highlights for the coming week…

-Cold front passes late Monday which will be a partly cloudy but dry day.

-High pressure builds in Tuesday bringing bright but chilly weather.

-Frontal system to the south of the area provides a slope for warmer air to ride up over during midweek, with more cloudiness and a slight rain threat.

-November opens windy, warm, and wet on Friday.

-Transition from mild and unsettled to colder/drier during the weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 55. High 70.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 50.

9:30AM

A cold front has moved offshore taking a band of showers with it, leaving southeastern New England with a nice Sunday as drier air flows in between low pressure in southeastern Canada and high pressure from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States.

The week upcoming will feature some transitions due to a couple passing weather systems, the first of which will be a cold front Monday, bringing nothing more than some clouds and a reinforcing shot of chilly air which will peak over the region during Tuesday. Moderating temperatures are expected for midweek ahead of a vigorous disturbance approaching from the west. The main low center from this system is expected to pass northwest of New England late this week, as November begins, bringing a push of warmer air followed by some wet weather, then a transition to colder and drier air later next weekend. The details and timing of this are somewhat up in the air and will be fine-tuned as the week goes on.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows upper 20s inland valleys to upper 30s coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early then diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 54.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 59.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 49. High 64.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 52. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 50.

5:54PM

This is basically a second version of the previous blog with basically the same discussion but a different idea about the end of the forecast (the middle of next week). For my weather model savvy friends and readers you’ll be able to tell I’m leaning heavily toward the solution of the ECMWF (European) model. Here’s a quick summary of the coming 7 days (or the final 7 days of October) followed by a detailed forecast…

-Frosty Saturday morning as high pressure moves across the region then sun followed by clouds during the day as high pressure gives ground to a low pressure area which will pass north of the region Saturday night. Precipitation should be absent (passing north of the area).

-Sunday will be breezy with sun and clouds including nice football weather for the Pats game at 1PM against the Dolphins.

-Monday may have a few passing areas of clouds as a weak trough moves through, reinforcing some cool air for Monday night and Tuesday, which will be a nice day.

-Midweek changes: Looks like progression of weather systems will slow down and put high pressure off the coast and low pressure well west of New England. This could spell a continued dry pattern and a milder trend beginning during this period.

Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear – few high clouds. Widespread frost by dawn. Lows in the middle to upper 20s inland, lower to middle 30s urban and coastal areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Frosty start, sunny morning, increasingly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 55.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 53.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 62.