DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

This “work-week” through Friday is also the final 5 days of June, and the theme of the weather will be generally the same throughout as upper level low pressure will gradually drift eastward across the Northeast and New England, all the while undergoing a very slow weakening process while disturbances rotate around it, providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at various times. Getting a little more detailed where I can, we start today with extensive stratus and areas of fog. Ironically one of the areas with breaks of sun is the outer portion of Cape Cod, and while the South Coast and Cape will be in and out of low clouds and fog today and much of the week, they will also have “nicer” intervals. The stratus deck will break up across much of the region for at least partial sunshine today, but any sun will help fuel showers and thunderstorms, and today’s activity is most likely to occur during the afternoon over eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH, while areas to the east are less likely to see them, at least until tonight. That’s when one of the aforementioned disturbances will swing into and across the region, keeping a shower and thunderstorm chance going through the night and into the early hours of Tuesday. I think if one day is to see the least amount of sun regionwide during this 5-day period, it will be Tuesday as we deal with a return of low clouds to start the day and above that an extensive canopy of mid to high level cloudiness associated with the remains of a Midwestern MCS (mesoscale convective system – aka a sizeable cluster of thunderstorms). Additional showers/storms can pop up in our area at any time regardless as another disturbance enters the region, courtesy our upper level low. Wednesday’s idea is more of a sun/cloud mix evolving as a slightly stronger southerly air flow tends to help the cloudiness line up with the wind in bands, but some of these can still evolve into bands of showers and thunderstorms. In this case you can get bands of showers staying over the same locations for longer periods of time as they line up with the wind flow, which will be southerly both at the surface and aloft. This set-up can lead to “training” or multiple shower and/or thunderstorm cells moving over the same region, which increases the chance of flooding, so we’ll have to watch for that. This activity should subside at night, but it may take its time doing so – will have to re-evaluate this based on monitoring short-range guidance leading up to it and then the radar that day and evening. By Thursday, the weakening upper low will be crossing overhead, and that day will feature a fair-weather start but pop up showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon and evening. These tend to cluster and then drive themselves via outflow boundaries when you have the upper low right overhead and no real strong steering wind, and then the activity diminishes with the lowering / setting sun. Also a higher hail potential can exist Thursday with the cold pool right atop the region. I’m optimistic that this low gets east of the region by Friday with a drier overall outlook, but still enough cyclonic flow and cold air aloft that we cannot rule out some pop up showers and storms, just with more isolated coverage and probably with a movement more to the southeast, in contrast to the more northward-moving showers/storms the first half of the week and the chaotic movement of any convection on Thursday. So you see, even within a pattern governed by the same system over several days, the details of certain things can change. There will be a lot to monitor as we go through these final June days.

TODAY: Extensive low clouds start the day, along with areas of fog especially South Coast. A sun/cloud mix follows but clouds may hang longer South Coast. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe, are most likely in eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH, with only isolated activity east of there. Highs 70-77 immediate coast, 77-84 elsewhere but warmest interior valleys. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH but can be variable, strong/gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Areas of fog, likely most dense in coastal areas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70 Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH, can be variable/gusty around any showers/storms.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Another but likely weaker upper low will be around for the July 1-2 weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms both of those days. Exit upper low and enter weak high pressure with less shower/storm chance, better weather, more seasonable but no major heat July 3-5. Moderate confidence on that forecast trend with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

We should head to the 1/3 of the way through July mark with a pattern that features no sustained major heat, and a weaker version of the late June pattern, with the trough a little further west than we’ve seen it, reducing the shower/storm chance somewhat, but still with a few opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

No real changes to yesterday’s discussion, so here’s a shorter summary of our weather as we head through the next 5 days. It will still be governed by upper level low pressure as the most dominant feature, with today being the warmest day. humidity being pretty high throughout the period, and a daily chance of showers and some thunderstorms. How it breaks down for shower and storm activity is today’s activity being most likely from early to late afternoon favoring areas along and north of I-90, isolated to scattered, Monday’s favoring showers over thunderstorms with more of an easterly air flow, and activity more likely west of the I-95 belt, Tuesday and Wednesday seeing the most shower/storm activity as the upper level low moves more into/over the region from the west, and Thursday seeing the start of a drying trend with still scattered showers/storms popping up. Tracking/refining of the day-to-day short-term weather will take place…

TODAY: Low clouds and fog abundant in the South Coast region, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with early-day patchy fog elsewhere and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas along and north of I-90. Highs 78-85 except 71-78 South Coast, also may chill back in East Coast sections of MA / NH. Dew point 65-72. Wind S to variable at times up to 10 MPH, including sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Periodic showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, favoring the region west of the I-95 belt. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog. Isolated showers evening. Scattered to numerous showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds with lingering showers possible evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

One upper low exits to the east early in the period with still a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms 30 but an overall drying trend into the weekend. Next disturbance from the west tries to move in around July 2-3 but may run against a little more high pressure and be held at bay with a more isolated shower/storm chance and a trend to dry for the holiday. Still no significant or sustained heat in sight.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

General idea is for troughing in the eastern Midwest / Great Lakes / interior Northeast, with weak high pressure off the Atlantic Coast much of the time. This pattern features episodes of showers and thunderstorms but less active than the current pattern and still no major episodes of heat with more of a seasonable temperature pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

On this final weekend of June and first weekend of astronomical summer, we’re still talking about an unsettled pattern which has been with us pretty much all month. But that must be followed by the statement that we’ve had some pretty nice days in there too. As I’ve stated before, media will often focus on the negative so much so that they nearly prevent you from enjoying the good weather we have between the unsettled weather episodes. It’s also important to mention that the rainfall we’ve gotten this month has been preventing the region from slipping back into drought. Ironically though, the rainfall for the month, despite the above average days with rainfall, is still running near to below normal in many areas. But anyway, back to this weekend. We’ll be on the eastern side of upper level low pressure this weekend, in a southerly flow of warm, humid air. Today, a pretty solid disturbance goes by this morning and midday with a good swath of wet weather, but once it lifts beyond the region early this afternoon, we break into a sun/cloud mix across the region with only isolated showers and thunderstorms being a potential, but most areas staying rain-free, allowing later-day and evening outdoor plans to go on. Low clouds/fog may be stubborn at times along the South Coast both today and Sunday, limiting sunshine there while other areas see more of it. Sunday’s weather is a little less threatening in a coverage sense, as I now feel that instead of a scattered to numerous shower and storm situation, the coverage will be more of the isolated to scattered type, favoring the afternoon and early evening hours, but Sunday will also be the warmest day we’ve had in a while, with many areas in the 80s, except a cooler South Coast. An extension of high pressure to our northeast likely bends the wind flow around to more of an easterly set-up across the region by Monday, which can end up about 10 degrees cooler for high temps than Sunday in many areas. And it may take until later Tuesday to lose that and see more of a southerly air flow. Either way, the large scale wind pattern is at least partially if not directly onshore for either the eastern coastal or southern coastal areas Monday-Tuesday and even into Wednesday of next week when we should be in more of a southerly air flow regionwide. This would be in response to that many-times-talked-about second upper low that moves toward our region then slows down, like many others have done. The summation of this is that a humid, unsettled pattern continues into the middle of next week, but despite the gloom-and-doom look of your weather apps, you will likely find many hours of rain-free time in there as well.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with episodes of showers, becoming most widespread late morning-midday, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Clouds break for sun at times mid afternoon on but with the chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH while most areas are rain-free. Highs 76-83 likely occurring mid to late afternoon, warmest inland. Dew point 65-72. Wind variable but most often S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Areas of fog, most extensive South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Low clouds and fog dominate the South Coast region, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with early-day patchy fog elsewhere and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 78-85 except 71-78 South Coast. Dew point 65-72. Wind S to variable at times up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Periodic showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and numerous showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

One upper low exits to the east early in the period with still a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms June 29 & 30 but an overall drying trend. Next disturbance traverses the region during the first 3 days of July from west to east but this one is going to be up against less favorable conditions to hang together so shower / thunderstorm chances will be limited and temperatures will attempt to hang out closer to seasonal normals heading into the Independence Day holiday period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

Still not the highest confidence on the outlook this far in advance but still the overall trend is for a minimal shower and thunderstorm chance during this period but also a lack of significant heat. Plenty of fine-tuning to come…

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

Once again the general outlook going through the weekend into early next week remains the same as previously prognosticated. One upper level low pressure area to our west, meandering and eventually wandering eastward while weakening through the weekend, will be overtaken by a second, stronger and quicker-moving one heading eastward through the early to middle portion of next week, while a weak upper ridge sits off the Atlantic Coast. This combination is warmer relative to recent weather, but not hot. However it is also a more humid and unsettled pattern. We are introduced to the higher humidity during the course of the day today as a warm front lifts northward across the region. This front will only be accompanied by limited shower activity. Even the clouds associated with it have been struggling to maintain themselves while pushing northward, as you may have noticed by yesterday turning out sunnier than predicted just hours earlier – not that anyone complained about that given our recent weather. Today, there is a blanket of stratus clouds across east central and southeastern MA into RI and even some coastal fog to start the day, and some of this will try to break up as the morning goes on, but much of the cloud deck will remain in place, and then expand, but become a more organized, broken south-to-north moving deck of low clouds as we increase the moisture similarly across the region today. Meanwhile, the mid and higher level clouds associated with the warm front have struggled to move north against drier air but will eventually win that battle in a more substantial way, although not completely enough so that breaks in both the higher and lower clouds can’t allow breaks of sun even into later today. If there are any heavier showers in the isolated assortment, they will likely occur over the region just east of the CT Valley. Tonight into Saturday morning, a disturbance adds to the shower chance while the humidity continues to bump up, and these will be scattered, along with some downpours which carry a slight chance of thunder into late morning. After that, the tendency will be for slightly more stable air to arrive from the South Coast through eastern MA and southeastern NH, while areas to the west can see a few diurnal showers and thunderstorms into Saturday afternoon before activity diminishes for a quiet but humid Saturday evening – the first night that feels like a more classic summer night. Another disturbance approaching from the west on Sunday will help ignite showers and thunderstorms along with the help of solar heating and higher humidity during Sunday’s midday through early evening hours. Similar weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, but showers and storms may end up more numerous on Tuesday with a slow-moving cold front moving into the region from the west in response to a stronger push from upper level low pressure starting to move eastward with a bit more momentum. We’ll continue our mild to warm (not hot) humid pattern through the beginning of the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 71-78, coolest South Coast. Dew point passing 60. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming SE this morning-midday eventually shifting to S increasing to 5-15 MPH by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms mainly RI and eastern MA through mid morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT during the afternoon hours. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers, mainly overnight. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming isolated. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Upper level low pressure will still be moving eastward across the region at the beginning of the period with showers and thunderstorms most likely. After that, a gradual transition to a more westerly / zonal flow will take place as the upper low lifts out and weakens and a combination of westerly flow sinking southward through eastern Canada and weak high pressure off the East Coast pushes the tendency for a trough further west and south into the Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley region by the start of the new month. This would be a drier trend for our region, but without major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Not high confidence, but slightly more than yesterday, that we are in a less active pattern with minimal shower and thunderstorm chances and no major heat. Continued re-evaluation of this pattern evolution will take place with daily updates.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

I don’t have many adjustments to make to yesterday’s discussion and forecast. On the large scale, we remain in a transitional but somewhat repeating pattern. Transient Rex block (high pressure eastern Canada / US Northeast with low pressure to the south southwest of this region) moves into a transient omega where the trough to our southwest becomes the eastern member of a pair of upper level lows (Ohio Valley and West Coast to Rockies initially). But this pattern will be transitional, as in not generally stationary upper features but ones that progress eastward, albeit not at the same speeds. The easternmost low takes its time drifting eastward through this coming weekend while the one further west is moving along more swiftly, and the reason the “omega” setup is short-lived is because the western upper low catches up and overtakes the eastern one in the Northeast by early next week. What sensible weather to we get as a result of all of this. In summary: An unsettled overall pattern lacking any real heat, but not lacking humidity. We start today again with some areas of stratus, most of it set to dissipate as the sun rises higher into the sky, but look for increasing high to mid level clouds from the south north. Why? A warm front will approach today into Friday and likely take until late Friday to get full through the region. I’m not expecting widespread rainfall from this feature, as initially it will battle dry air, and some previous model forecasts of a rainy Thursday afternoon/evening will not come to fruition. Some sprinkle/rain may work into the South Coast and a few areas south of I-90 by this evening, but not enough to cancel any outdoor plans you have. Some patchy rain moves up through the region tonight and when we get to Friday it’s more a domination by clouds and not so much by rain, with just a few passing showers possible as the warm front works its way across the region. If there are any heavier showers Friday they are more likely to occur in the western reaches of the WHW forecast area (toward the Connecticut Valley). Despite the inability to really heat up as the warm front passes due to the abundant cloud cover, you will notice the humidity spike up. And the higher humidity is to be with us through the coming weekend and Monday as well. During this time, we’ll see the upper low to our west meander a bit and then edge eastward, making it close to the region by Sunday, while the second low will be playing catch up and reach the Great Lakes / Midwest by Monday. Along with the aforementioned higher humidity we’ll also see shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend and Monday, but I suspect Saturday’s activity will be more on the isolated to scattered side, favoring Cape Cod early in the day and interior areas mostly well west and northwest of Boston from the afternoon through evening, so Saturday itself may not really be that bad a day with warmer temperatures and the chance for more sun, as long as you don’t mind the humidity increase. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday and Monday, but there will be a diurnal component to them, with most numerous activity likely reserved for the afternoon and early evening hours. And while it will certainly not be raining all the time any of these days, any rainfall that occurs has the potential to be heavy.

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. A light shower possible South Coast later and anywhere south of I-90 by evening. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few light showers around. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 71-78, coolest South Coast. Dew point passing 60. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring Cape Cod early and eastern CT / central MA / southwestern NH later. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Upper level low pressure traverses the region from west to east into the middle of next week with shower and thunderstorm chances and high humidity through June 28, then as a weak ridge moves in behind the departing low expect a drying trend and slightly warmer conditions June 29 through July 1.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

While this forecast is still low confidence, the trend is similar to the thinking of yesterday. A weak block may reappear with high pressure north and low pressure south, but displaced a little more so the high is further east and low further southwest. Placement and oscillation of features would determine day to day weather but the overall idea for now is a little drier and temperatures that run near to slightly below normal with a tendency for more large scale flow off the Atlantic instead of a land breeze. This would prevent major heat through the holiday period.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

In case you forgot, summer officially arrives today – solstice 10:57 a.m.! Early this morning a blanket of stratus clouds covers the rising sun from the Merrimack Valley northward, save for a few breaks in the overcast, while a veil of high clouds filters it somewhat along the South Coast, and some stratus patches have also made their way into MA East Coast locations, with a few more patches of stratus in northwestern RI and northeastern CT too. The patchy stratus will dissipate as the high-angle sun rises into the sky, and the more extensive stratus deck to the north will initially be fed by the eastern MA stratus which can increase for a while into mid morning, but otherwise will begin break up before undergoing a transformation into diurnal cumulus clouds as morning becomes afternoon. The onshore flow should eventually prevent these from forming over the coastal plain. Some of the cumulus may grow enough to produce a few showers over the interior higher elevations from southwestern NH through central MA and perhaps as far southeast as northwestern RI, but these will quickly dissipate with the setting sun. With high pressure sliding into the waters to our east, a light east to southeast air flow will allow additional patches of stratus to form tonight as the aforementioned shield of high clouds to the south starts a northward trend. That cloud area, associated with low pressure and a warm front to our south, will thicken as the day goes along Thursday, but right now I expect any of the showers associated with the warm front to struggle against dry air and hold off until late evening or overnight / early hours of Friday. That front will continue a slow northward push and Friday, once prognosticated by model guidance to be a summery day with sunshine and highs of 90+ will actually end up as a mainly cloudy day in the 70s with rain showers. Our weekend is so-so as it stands now. I think the warm front does lift northward through the region by Saturday, with both days at least having a shot of 80+ in all but immediate coastal areas, especially the South Coast, where a southerly air flow will keep those locations sub-80 for high temps. Higher humidity will be noticeable, as we haven’t had much of it so far. Also, it’ll be unsettled, not in the way it was last weekend with upper level and surface low pressure plaguing the region, but this time just from pop up showers and possible thunderstorms, which will become more numerous on Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west…

TODAY: Sun/cloud variety. A pop up shower possible southwestern NH, central MA, and northwestern RI this afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible in southern areas especially South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

Upper level low pressure lifts from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, and we’ll be in a southerly air flow with a slow-moving frontal boundary the first part of next week with periodic showers/thunderstorms. This system loses grip with improving weather by later in the week. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

There’s a lot of uncertainty in this forecast for the early days of July. Oftentimes it can be really hard to see a persistent pattern just vanish, and I don’t think we’ll see that, but I also don’t think it’ll be as unsettled as previously. I see a few hints that a Rex-type block may return. We have to watch eastern Canada for high pressure, which if strong enough, can trend the region drier but also prevent significant heat. If such a high is too far north, unsettled weather can sneak in as there will still be a tendency for upper level troughing in the Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic, and if, though less likely, the high ended up pushing further south, the door could open up for hotter weather. I see that final “option” as least likely though. Will monitor and give this outlook a better shot in the coming days. For now, I’d lean toward a drier overall pattern with temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

The final full day of spring will feel like mid spring with below normal temperatures, lots of clouds, and a shower chance from a passing upper level disturbance. An onshore flow will prevail, setting us up for a low clouds and patchy fog tonight after any showers have dissipated. As a transient Rex block sends high pressure this way and pushes low pressure to the south at midweek, we’ll have fair weather, for a short time, and a warming trend of sorts – not to summer heat levels for sure even as we welcome summer with the solstice at 10:57 a.m. Wednesday. A light wind field allows a sea breeze to get going Wednesday, and while Thursday will be a warmer day overall, a more southeast to south wind will still have an ocean component for most coastal areas, keeping them cooler. Wildcard for Thursday is that recent trends in guidance have been to advance clouds and a shower threat more quickly. For now I haven’t jumped on this trend, but know that it may not end up as sunny as my forecast currently indicates, and that in a worst-case scenario, if that guidance is correct, we may end up seeing showers arrive for at least southern areas before the day has ended. Later this week, we’re back in a low pressure trough with a warm front pushing through Friday including the chance of showers and an increase in humidity into Saturday, which will carry the chance of showers and thunderstorms, but at least it’ll have a bit more of the feel of summer with higher humidity. 😉

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH

TONIGHT: Low clouds, patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind E under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Low clouds and patchy fog give way to sun. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine, some clouds later. Highs 76-83, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible in southern areas especially South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 75-82. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

A series of troughs / upper lows will be around, centered mostly to the west, with a humid and unsettled pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. This is not a “rainy every day” pattern, as there will be dry times too, but too early to work out a more detailed forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A more relaxed version of the 6-10 day pattern is expected for the 11-15 day period, still seeing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at times with no significant heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

A pattern change of sorts is underway – more like a pattern readjustment, because there will be some things that are similar to recent weather and some differences as well. Let’s try to sort that out for these 5 days. Upper level low pressure still has control over the weather early this week. It’s a weaker version of what we had during the weekend, but it’s still enough to result in unsettled weather at times in terms of scattered shower activity later today, tonight, and again Tuesday. While this is happening, a high pressure ridge to the north, completing a Rex block set-up (high over low) will start to push southward and accomplish the task of drying us out for midweek, along with a warming trend. We welcome summer with the solstice, which occurs Wednesday at 10:57 a.m., and we’ll have more of the feel of that season Wednesday and especially Thursday when more of a westerly wind will occur after coastal sea breezes Wednesday. By Friday, a deeper southwesterly air flow will overtake the region as high pressure sits to the south and southeast, and it will be a warm day, but also a more humid one. Medium range guidance is split on whether or not any pop up showers / thunderstorms can occur Friday, but at day 5 I think a call for isolated ones is reasonable with increased moisture and solar heating combined that day.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix and some high altitude smoke in the sky as well. Isolated showers possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 53-60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler Cape Cod and some other coastal points. Wind W up to 10 MPH but still some weak coastal sea breezes can develop.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising over 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

The June 24-25 weekend looks humid and somewhat more unsettled. A southwesterly to southerly air flow around offshore high pressure will carry more moisture, but activity should be isolated to scattered and favor inland areas Saturday and become scattered to numerous Sunday as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest, focusing the moisture. This leads to what looks like an unsettled first half of next week with upper level low pressure in the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley, high pressure offshore, and a frontal boundary in the region, resulting in occasional showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

This isn’t high confidence, but expecting the unsettled pattern of early next week to break down into a weak zonal flow pattern heading to the end of June and start of July, but still with a tendency for a low pressure trough to be located in the interior Northeast / Great Lakes / Ohio Valley areas, which can still provide the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms at times, but also keeps us from getting into significant heat as well. Later in the period, however, we can be vulnerable to a push of much drier air from Canada, which can result from a stronger ridge in the Upper Midwest inducing a northwesterly air flow from eastern Canada to New England.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

We’ve made it through the worst of June. And despite the dramatic flare of the majority of the population to make it seem like we’ve been in the “worst pattern ever” since the beginning of time, it was hardly that. It was an unsettled and cool 2-week pattern with a few very nice days sprinkled in there. You survived it. Next time, people should try doing so without whining – it’s less stressful. Ok, snark aside, we are going to see improvement going forward, but it’s slow at first. Today is the day the low pressure system that got around to soaking Saturday for most of the region starts to pull away, and dry air starts to work in on its back side. But it’ll be unstable enough that we still have to watch for a few light showers to develop on its western flank at departure. But despite this, some breaks of sun can develop and while it doesn’t turn into a warm day, it’ll be milder than Saturday. As we head into the beginning of the week, the pattern will enter a Rex block (similar to the pattern for the end of May) but it’s going to be transient, i.e. short-lived. This pattern features high pressure sinking from southern Canada into the US Northeast while a low pressure trough is held at bay in the Mid Atlantic, giving them a long stretch of unsettled and cool weather into next week, but preventing it from moving up and continuing a similar pattern for our area. During this pattern, we’ll have weak high pressure moving in, but centered north enough that a light easterly air flow will dominate Monday and Tuesday. Just enough instability will be around that an isolated shower can pop up mainly over the interior higher elevations Monday afternoon, and with the help of a weak disturbance passing through at upper levels on Tuesday, a few afternoon showers can occur anywhere in the region. By Wednesday, high pressure will be right overhead, and a sunnier day will help usher in summer 2023 with the solstice occurring at 10:57 a.m.. Coastal areas will end up a little cooler with an afternoon sea breeze as a result of a weak wind field under the high pressure area, but expect a very pleasant day. On Thursday, the summer switch will be flicked on, just in time for the first full day of the new season, with lots of sun and a warmer west wind.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, but breaks of sun becoming more likely with time. Chance of quick passing showers. Highs 66-73. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds dominant but breaks large enough to see some stars too. Lows 52-59. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partial sun. A couple pop up showers southwestern NH and central MA in the afternoon, favoring the higher terrain locations. Highs 67-74, coolest at the coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

Dry with warm sunshine for June 23 with high pressure over and south of the region and a westerly air flow. The June 24-25 weekend turns more humid with fair weather to start and potential shower/storms to end it. Unsettled weather with a frontal boundary in the vicinity later in the period, along with a cooling trend. This is not a return to the blocking / unsettled pattern we had, but part of a transition from the temporary Rex blog to a zonal flow pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

A zonal flow pattern is expected with seasonable temperatures averaging from typical variability. A weak mean trough will oscillate from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes to the interior Northeast and this does provide a couple shower/thunderstorm opportunities with passing disturbances, but the overall pattern looks dry, not wet, heading toward early July.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

On this final weekend of spring, the weather will feel a bit more like April / May than the middle of June. You can thank a low pressure system comprised of an upper low traversing the region from west to east while a surface low does a loop just to our east / northeast. While there have been enough dry slots in the rainfall pattern to keep some areas rain-free to start today, eventually this activity will fill in more, and a much larger portion of the region will be covered by showery rain and embedded downpours (maybe with a bit of thunder?) as we head through the afternoon / evening. Activity seems to want to focus heaviest in southeastern NH and eastern MA. A widespread swath of back-lash rain/drizzle will soak the region overnight, but when we get into Sunday this will pull away quickly as drier air works in behind the departing low, which will then be moving eastward. I’m not expecting complete clearing on Sunday but we may see some breaks in the clouds and can’t rule out a couple of intervals of sun in some areas. However, with enough atmospheric instability in place there can still be a couple of pop up showers, but these will be isolated, and far more than exception than the rule – also fairly light and quickly passing where occurring. By the time we get to Monday, the low’s gone and weak high pressure has moved in with fair weather. I’m removing the shower threat from the forecast that I had before, but a weak wind field means coastal areas will likely develop a sea breeze under partial sun, and be cooler than inland areas which can warm up a bit more efficiently. It is on Tuesday when we may see a few showers pop up with a weak disturbance moving through the region on the final full day of spring. The summer solstice occurs at 10:57 a.m. on Wednesday, and fittingly, that looks like a mostly sunny and warm day with high pressure in control, but having sunk just far enough to the south to promote a warming westerly wind.

TODAY: Overcast. Shower frequency and coverage increases with time. Isolated thunderstorms embedded in some of the heavier shower areas. Patchy fog forming. Highs 59-66 morning, cooling slightly this afternoon. Wind E to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms possible. Lows 52-59. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near the coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62 Wind NE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partial sunshine. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

High pressure sinks just to the south with dry weather and an interlude of warm to very warm air June 22-24. The end of the period cools and turns more unsettled as a frontal boundary enters the region with showers and possible thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A more zonal (west to east) flow pattern takes over. A frontal boundary may be hanging about in the region early in the period before the trend is dry. Temperatures mostly near normal.

COMMENTARY

We’ll have a little taste of summer today, and does it come as a surprise? Probably to many, and I’ll tell you why. The tendency in media these days, and as a result the tendency in many people, is to focus on the dramatic or the negative, or a combination of the two. Yes, our pattern has been anything but ideal, in terms of the majority of folk’s likings, for the first half of June. The first 15 days in Boston for example, are averaging about 2 1/2 degrees to the cooler side of normal, and we’ve had more than our share of clouds and wet weather, and oh no, here it comes again! A lousy weekend! But hold on a moment. I do realize that not every person will be able to be outside all day today to enjoy what is a really nice summer day, but hey, the calendar may technically still say spring, but today’s going to be a really nice summer day. But it’s almost like nobody said it was even going to happen, or noticed that some of our media did actually try to point it out. Example: A local station’s meteorologist did talk about today’s nice weather for most of the day until clouds took over late, and high temps in the lower 80s for many areas and even middle 80s for some. But the anchors, in coming off listening to the side, if they were listening at all, immediately began to lament about how bad our weekend was going to be. “A washout, cold miserable weekend!” No, no, actually it’s not going to be a washed out cold and miserable weekend. Saturday is going to be a wet and cool days, yes. That part is true. Sunday shows improvement in the forecast – no, not warm and sunny, but not nearly as wet as Saturday, and even some potential for sun to break out. But they didn’t say that, even though their colleague a few feet away had. They just focused on the worst of it, and dramatized it, and the viewer, if not keen to the now very common practice, came away with the feeling that the next 3 days are simply going to suck… Something needs to change in media – but I’m not holding my breath for it.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

Well I already gave away the general forecast for the next 3 days in my commentary, but let’s take a look at how that’s going to happen before we move on. We’re in a weak and small high pressure ridge between departed low pressure to our east northeast and approaching low pressure from the west. And that is enough to provide us with a fairly nice day. Although our sunshine will be filtered once again by a plume of high-altitude smoke as the Canadian fire season rolls on. At least this time it won’t be surface smoke and will just give the sky a hazy, more classic “summer’s of old” look. And while today won’t be hot by the usual standards, it may feel that way with the high June sun angle and the temperatures cracking 80 for most areas, with a hint of higher humidity creeping back in. Dew points will rise over 60 along the coast and toward 60 over inland locations as the day goes on. Cumulus clouds will pop up in the daytime heating and a few isolated showers/downpours can occur with these by afternoon. We finally lose they sun later in the day to a thicker canopy of clouds, and the increased moisture, with the help of a surface boundary migrating northward, can kick off a scattered to broken band of showers, a few of which can be heavy, this evening before dark, especially west of Boston. So while most of the day is rain-free, if you do have evening plans, keep this in mind. And then things change more drastically overnight through Saturday as an upper lever low pressure area moves into the region. This system is actually the combination of a trough from the west and the remains of an old upper low hanging out sneakily over southeastern Canada. They join and send a weak surface low into cyclonic loop mode, just to our south and east, and in the place to deliver cool and wet weather to us for Saturday with frequent showers, some of which can be on the heavier side as well. Temperatures as a result of the heavy cloud cover and east to northeast wind will be below normal as the saturated air comes off the chilly ocean. By Sunday, both the upper and surface lows will begin an eastward departure, and while the day starts damp and somewhat showery, we see improvement and rain-free conditions take over, with some potential cloud breaks, maybe enough for intervals of sun to develop before day’s end. However, I can’t rule out an additional pop up shower in the afternoon, but with indications this would most likely be in the higher terrain of southwestern NH and central MA with the help of a little more solar heating combined with lingering cold air above and a little lifting of air by the hills. Don’t cancel any outdoor plans you have for Sunday afternoon based on this, however. So there’s your weekend – certainly not the best, and not the worst either, but less than ideal, for sure. Onto next week, and early in the week we will see evidence of a shift in the pattern, albeit subtly at first. High pressure ridging that has spent a lot of time in central Canada will expand eastward into east central Canada and strengthen somewhat, and this will push low pressure that wants to linger just to our south and east a little further away. We will still have some lingering cold air aloft Monday and with a weak disturbance moving through we can still see a few showers pop up, but this is likely to be very limited. A general onshore flow will keep the coast coolest that day. A little more influence from high pressure will mean a dry day for Tuesday, but with a general easterly flow for the region the coastal areas will still be noticeably cooler than interior locations.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun, giving way to clouds later on in the day. An isolated shower possible by afternoon. Scattered showers favoring areas west of Boston by early evening. Highs 77-84 except cooler in coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes through mid afternoon, then SE 5-15 MPH by evening.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers increasing in frequency and coverage. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Patchy fog forming overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Frequent showers with areas of drizzle and fog. Isolated heavier showers with the potential for a few thunderstorms embedded. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH higher gusts especially near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, with areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy morning with scattered showers and areas of fog favoring eastern coastal locations. Breaking clouds afternoon with a slight chance of a pop up shower over interior higher elevations. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62 Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

We welcome summer not only with the solstice, which occurs at 10:57 a.m. on June 21, as well as a more noticeable pattern shift, with high pressure in eastern Canada and the Northeast keeping upper level low pressure off to the southwest. This results in generally fair and more seasonable weather heading from the middle to latter portion of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

A more zonal (west to east) flow pattern takes over. A frontal boundary may be hanging about in the region early in the last week of the month, bringing an increased shower and thunderstorm chance, before high pressure gains control with dry weather. Temperatures closer to seasonable levels, but still not seeing any signs of major heat for the region at this point.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

Low pressure gets to our east today and a little high pressure ridge sneaks in tonight into Friday. Enough cold air aloft today can support a couple isolated afternoon showers mainly across southern NH and northeastern MA, but for the most part the day will be dry for our region, including more sun eventually mixed with the clouds associated with the departing low pressure area. Friday should be a day that starts sunnier but ends with more clouds as the next trough and low will be on the approach. This is not good news for the weekend, especially Saturday, when upper low pressure goes right over us, and surface low pressure does a short cyclonic loop just south of us, bringing a cloudy and wet day with below normal temperatures. Only slight improvement is noted for Sunday as drier air arrives on the back side of that system which will start to move to the east. When we get to Monday it’s time for the start of a kind-of Rex block with high pressure in eastern Canada and a trough just to our southwest and south. We can still see showers around Monday with some chilly air above us and a weak disturbance in the area.

TODAY: Lots of clouds in portions of the region early to mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower possible southern NH and northern MA this afternoon. Highs 72-79, may be a little cooler in some coastal areas. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breeze are possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 75-82, cooler coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but again coastal sea breezes possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms arriving. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 51-58. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 67-74. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62 Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

Rex block pattern for a few days with high pressure strong enough to keep wet weather to the south, but the break down of the pattern may allow wet weather to push back into the region late in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

Flip to a more zonal flow pattern with a couple shower chances, and “warmer” weather, but no major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

Two low pressure systems will impact our weather over the next 5 days. The first brings a shower and thunderstorm threat later today / tonight, but the greatest threat of severe storms is going to occur to our west and northwest, away from the influence of a stabilizing southerly wind off the ocean water to the south, and where there is a better combo of dynamics / heating. However, can’t rule out some stronger storms further east especially this evening before things quiet down later tonight. The first low gets to our east Thursday but enough cold air lingers aloft that a few pop up showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm can occur, favoring southern and central to eastern MA, later in the afternoon or early evening. Friday’s weather will hold another shower and thunderstorm chance in the afternoon and evening as another low pressure area moves toward the area from the west. This low likely stacks with its upper level partner and temporarily slows down enough to mess up at least part of the weekend. Indications are for a mainly cloudy and damp Saturday with some rainfall around – maybe not all day but enough to alter many outdoor plans, then some improvement but still the chance of diurnal shower development on Sunday. Temperatures will be a little closer to normal today through Friday before cooling back to below normal during the coming weekend.

TODAY: Low overcast and areas of fog east central and northeastern MA to southeastern NH early otherwise a sun/cloud mix with clouds taking over late. Late-day and evening showers and thunderstorms probable in the region – any storms can be strong to locally severe, favoring western areas. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH. Winds can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely evening – any thunderstorms potentially severe. Partly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH. Winds can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and a possible thunderstorm, favoring southern NH and eastern MA mid afternoon on. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 62-69. Wind E-NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 67-74. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

Current leaning for next week is a Rex block pattern with high pressure close enough for mainly dry weather, keeping unsettled weather to our south. This is a drier pattern with no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

Wet weather early in the period introduces a more zonal pattern with more seasonable temperatures and a couple shower/thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

The larger scale pattern features continued domination by upper level low pressure over our region, with one moving from the Great Lakes across New England through early Thursday, exiting, and being replaced by a follow-up Friday into the start of the weekend. For our region this means continued unsettled weather. It doesn’t rain all the time, but there are daily opportunities for showers, some more substantial than others. While it doesn’t look it when you start the day today, this is an improvement day, but it will be somewhat subtle. We start our with a few lingering sprinkles but a thick overcast with areas of fog and drizzle, but a dry slot will be working in as surface low pressure lifts away from the region. This will help begin a clearing process, so the clouds will thin and break, but complete clearing is likely be prevented by a southeast to east air flow at the surface. Some partial clearing but patchy fog redevelopment is expected tonight, and clouds will become dominant again Wednesday with the approach of the next surface disturbance around the upper low. This one carries dynamics to produce more potent showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with a low but present risk of severe thunderstorms occurring, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on the evolution of the weather tomorrow. This system exits by early Thursday as the upper low starts to pull out, so while the cold air lingering aloft still allows for a shower chance, the activity will be quite limited due to a drying process both at low and mid levels of the atmosphere. This doesn’t last long, as both the next upper and surface lows approach on Friday with an increased chance of showers and possible thunderstorms once again. The forecast for Saturday is a little lower confidence due to the difficulty in trying to forecast upper low departure to begin with, and the inconsistency of guidance designed to help the effort. Right now, I feel the upper low and a surface low will be close enough for a damp early Saturday followed by drying, but any solar heating helping scattered showers to pop up, so in summation, an unsettled day at best.

TODAY: Cloudy with a few showers and areas of drizzle and fog to start, then breaking clouds at times with only a slight chance of a brief shower. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+ at least through midday may drop later. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH,.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely later in the day. Any storms can be strong to locally severe. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then breaking clouds but areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with areas of drizzle and fog, then breaking clouds and partial sun but also a chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

Upper level low pressure still close enough for a shower chance June 18. Evolution of pattern after that looks like a temporary Rex block with high pressure across eastern Canada into the New England region with a drying trend while low pressure gets pushed to the south – but must keep an eye on it as it won’t be far away. Despite drying, any warm up will be modest.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Not a high confidence forecast but signs of a rather quick Rex block break down and switch to a zonal flow pattern with a weak mean trough in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Resultant weather is a couple shower/t-storm chances and no major heat for the first days of summer.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

Another week / another upper low. Yes once again our weather for the balance of the coming week will be governed by upper level low pressure. Initially this upper low will be to our west a little longer than the last one, and we’ll be in a southwesterly air flow ahead of it through Wednesday. During this time, two main disturbances will impact our weather, the first tonight into Tuesday in the form of a frontal system parented from surface low pressure passing to our northwest. The warm front will move into and through the region tonight with some showers and possibly a thunderstorm, followed by its cold front early Tuesday with additional showers and a few storms possible, but this front will be in the process of dissipating as it runs out of push, becoming parallel to the air flow and the air mass behind it modifying to very similar to what’s ahead of it. Some clearing will occur later Tuesday as a swath of drier air moves in. The next disturbance rotating around the upper low will bring another shot at showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening, and pending the timing and heating ahead of these, some may be strong to severe. I’ll need to fine-tune that through tomorrow’s updates/comments. Thursday’s a quieter day but can’t rule out a pop up shower as the upper low moves eastward and we’re under its cold pool, and this will be the case Friday as well with a better shot at pop up showers and even a few thunderstorms with the aid of an additional disturbance moving through.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Dew point around or just over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely and a possible thunderstorm late evening on. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point near or just over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm early, then mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers through midday. Clearing with more sun late. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+ at least through midday may drop later. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely later in the day. Any storms can be strong to locally severe. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then breaking clouds but areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

The June 17-18 weekend will still feature upper level low pressure, though it will be slowly exiting and weakening, but there can still be a few pop up showers around each day. A brief break, then the next disturbance ends spring and ushers in summer with a chance of showers later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

A general west to east flow, lack of blocking, but tendency for troughing still to be in place, bringing a couple unsettled weather chances but keeping major heat away.