Saturday June 17 2023 Forecast (9:18AM)

94 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

On this final weekend of spring, the weather will feel a bit more like April / May than the middle of June. You can thank a low pressure system comprised of an upper low traversing the region from west to east while a surface low does a loop just to our east / northeast. While there have been enough dry slots in the rainfall pattern to keep some areas rain-free to start today, eventually this activity will fill in more, and a much larger portion of the region will be covered by showery rain and embedded downpours (maybe with a bit of thunder?) as we head through the afternoon / evening. Activity seems to want to focus heaviest in southeastern NH and eastern MA. A widespread swath of back-lash rain/drizzle will soak the region overnight, but when we get into Sunday this will pull away quickly as drier air works in behind the departing low, which will then be moving eastward. I’m not expecting complete clearing on Sunday but we may see some breaks in the clouds and can’t rule out a couple of intervals of sun in some areas. However, with enough atmospheric instability in place there can still be a couple of pop up showers, but these will be isolated, and far more than exception than the rule – also fairly light and quickly passing where occurring. By the time we get to Monday, the low’s gone and weak high pressure has moved in with fair weather. I’m removing the shower threat from the forecast that I had before, but a weak wind field means coastal areas will likely develop a sea breeze under partial sun, and be cooler than inland areas which can warm up a bit more efficiently. It is on Tuesday when we may see a few showers pop up with a weak disturbance moving through the region on the final full day of spring. The summer solstice occurs at 10:57 a.m. on Wednesday, and fittingly, that looks like a mostly sunny and warm day with high pressure in control, but having sunk just far enough to the south to promote a warming westerly wind.

TODAY: Overcast. Shower frequency and coverage increases with time. Isolated thunderstorms embedded in some of the heavier shower areas. Patchy fog forming. Highs 59-66 morning, cooling slightly this afternoon. Wind E to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms possible. Lows 52-59. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near the coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62 Wind NE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partial sunshine. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

High pressure sinks just to the south with dry weather and an interlude of warm to very warm air June 22-24. The end of the period cools and turns more unsettled as a frontal boundary enters the region with showers and possible thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A more zonal (west to east) flow pattern takes over. A frontal boundary may be hanging about in the region early in the period before the trend is dry. Temperatures mostly near normal.

94 thoughts on “Saturday June 17 2023 Forecast (9:18AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So far, overnight and into this morning barely a drop of rain has fallen. Looks like that will change soon. 🙂

    1. The “plot twist” is underway now. Watch the movement of the precip areas from here on…

  3. Thanks TK.

    With a zonal flow developing towards the end of the month, does that open the door for typical HHH (sustained heat pattern) around July 4th?

    1. It likely does not. That’s not part of my extended outlook right now. Also, a sustained pattern of hot humid weather is not typical for July 4 anyway. It can happen, but it’s not “typical” in terms of happening the majority of the time.

      Boston’s high temp for the previous 10 years for July 4…

      2013: 94
      2014: 76
      2015: 72
      2016: 88
      2017: 82
      2018: 87
      2019: 84
      2020: 70
      2021: 68
      2022: 85

      Only one 90+ in the last decade on the holiday.

  7. Philip, I am slightly more awake than I was when you made your holiday comment last night. It is a fun comment/observation . I can think of two months with two national holidays. January and November. I can’t think of any that has two consistent three day weekends. As for June, you may be right that it has the most named celebratory days in MA? Flag day, Father’s Day, June nineteenth, Bunker Hill Day. Although Easter is not a federal holiday, I wonder if whatever month it falls in has as many named days.

    Anyway, you can tell I’m having fun with your thought on a pre-rainy Saturday. Thank you.

  9. Unrelated to weather: The next round of Covid-19 shots for the upcoming fall will target the latest omicron strain XBB.1.5 according to the FDA.

      1. I was really hoping that we would be totally done with Covid-19 for good. I’ll probably go get the shot in a few months along with my annual flu shot though. Sigh.

  10. With the upper energy evolving and passing through resulting in slow precip motion, I’m quite interested in seeing what happens today.

    If there’s convection, a lot of rain can get dumped.

    1. Thanks for the ride Joshua. Much of the video is from 1964 if I’m not mistaken. Driving around Boston was so much easier back then. Good luck on that same route in 2023. 😉

      1. After watching that video a second time, I am amazed at the smoothness of the streets in 1964 compared to today. No potholes that I can tell, few and far between.

    2. Awesome video. Watched twice now. I was trying to catch the year through the cars, but it goes quickly. I think the car at the start is a 1961 or maybe 60 Impala. I didn’t see a lot of mustangs but do think I caught a couple of 56/57 chevys.

      Thank you, Joshua. Great fun!!

      1. I was still young in those days, not quite ready for school. I was in kindergarten for the 1965-66 year.

        Fall 1965: am kindergarten
        Winter/Spring 1966: pm kindergarten

  13. Thanks TK. Like you said yesterday not a complete washout this weekend. I was able to get the grass mowed and do a few other things.

  14. There have been recent black bear sightings in Newton, Lexington, Arlington and Norwell.

    Which Boston neighborhood will host the first black bear? With my luck it will be me one dark DST morning on my way to my bus stop. Always the side streets. On my way to my stop, I’ve seen skunks, raccoons, turkeys, and a bunny recently. No coyote (yet) which is my next greatest fear though.

  16. Server issue had blog down for some (not everyone apparently?) but it seems to be clear now.

      1. I couldn’t get in for over an hour. My techie didn’t notice anything unusual but said a “partial outage” can occur.

        2. Wow! I am fresh out of ideas. Of course, I am not sure
          why I ASSUMED it was Massachusetts. 🙂

          I’m stumped.

          I do hope you share soon. 🙂

    2. Based on my knowledge of the history of this band, and a look at the satellite picture, the answer is Lunenburg Massachusetts.

      1. Since you spilled the beans.

        Lunenburg, MA
        August 2, 2012 ·

        This is the music video for “Touch and Go” by The Cars, one of the biggest bands of the 80’s. What does this have to do with Lunenburg? It was filmed at Whalom Park! Filmed on July 7th, 1980, this video features some of the park’s classic rides. Be sure to check it out!

          1. Our company has a few summer outings there. Coincidentally a co worker posted a FB comment on Whalom yesterday. But a high school friend’s family had a summer place on the lake in Lunenburg and we spent lots of summer nights there.

        3. That song is a favorite of mine. It’s from their “least popular” album during the classic era. It has a darker edge to it but it’s a huge favorite of mine. Elliot Easton’s guitar solo in that song is magic and is often voted as a fan-favorite of all his mid-song solos, which was a staple of the sound of the band.

  18. Special Weather Statement
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    12:38 PM EDT Sat, Jun 17, 2023

    …A narrow band of torrential rainfall in southeastern Worcester and south central Middlesex Counties through 145 PM EDT…

    At 1239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of showers and thunderstorms extending from West Boylston to Millbury to Webster. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

    HAZARD…Minor flooding.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Minor nuisance flooding of typically flood prone areas.

    Locations impacted include… Worcester, Framingham, Marlborough, Shrewsbury, Milford, Hudson, Westborough, Grafton, Sudbury, Holden, Webster, Ashland, Auburn, Northbridge, Hopkinton, Northborough, Oxford, Clinton, Holliston and Uxbridge.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Do not drive through flooded roads or underpasses. Avoid low lying areas near small streams.

    &&

    MAX HAIL SIZE…0.00 IN; MAX WIND GUST…<30 MPH

    1. Thanks Vicki. That’s great – KEEP HANDS AND ARMS INSIDE!

      The park closed five years before we moved to Lunenburg. But I have access to a lot of information and memorabilia through my involvement in the town’s Historical Society.

      Just yesterday we presented the documentary I linked to above at the town’s Adult Activity Center. The turnout was amazing, and the stories people had to tell after the presentation were very interesting. For instance, there was a woman there who was one of the acrobatic water skiers during the 1970s!

      1. What a wonderful story. I had tears and goosebumps at the end of the video. It is so well done. I hope something is created to honor it’s memories and the memories of so many who went there

  21. Skies are very bright here in Sudbury. No rain except for a shower early this morning. Waiting for the line of showers and storms to get here.

  22. I am hopeful tomorrow will get some clearing on South Coast. At least in afternoon? For now first wave of heavy rain went through and another solid line of storms forming in Providence should get us in a couple of hours

  23. A bit of Thunder in S Sutton.

    SClarke. What a great video. Sad in some ways but great memories of that era

  24. In the Roadrunner video – which is from 1964 – you’ll see an unusual car at 0.38. I believe it’s a Citroen Ami. There were very few of these compact Citroens imported to America. There weren’t many of the Citroen DS series imported, either, but certainly in my childhood I saw them periodically.

    Keep in mind, I may be more of a car than a weather nut. I notice weird things in videos, and they usually relate to cars.

    1. Hahahaha. As you may have noticed it was the cars and not the area that had me fascinated. I did not see one muscle car so knew it was pre that era which was my car racing period. Mac’s family has a Citroen but I’m not sure in which country they were living at the time. It’s a great video

  25. We’ve had a general moderate to briefly heavy rain for about 3-4 hrs now.

    I’d guess we’re approaching .75 to maybe 1 inch. A nice soaking.

    See if any of that rain to the west rotates in later.

    1. Never mind, not with this 500 mb low diving SE.

      Perhaps the rain well to our NNE will begin to pivot back to the SSW later on.

      2. Once the rain commenced here, it seems to be sitting right over us. It looks like it’s about to move off, and then Nope, it stays over us or regenerates over us. 🙂

        1. The Echoes from the West appear to be catching up
          to the ones over us here in the East. Interesting.
          Some lightning to our West as well.

  26. Thanks, TK!

    Brightening skies to our east, but with what looks, on radar, to be a moderate to heavy cell to our west over Woonsocket approaching.

  27. Lots of moderate to heavy rain for the past few hours in Amesbury. From looks of the radar, it’s going to last for some time. But…we might see some peaks of sun tomorrow!

  29. Joshua. Just curious, do you still write articles regarding Covid-19? I know that we’re done here on the blog but what are your thoughts about this new XBB variant I mentioned above?

    Is that variant going to become an “issue” once we get into the fall/winter months? Just wondering. I don’t want to “mask up” ever again in my lifetime.

    1. I do, Philip, but much less than before.

      I’ll be brief in my responses.

      1. It appears the next booster shot this fall will be as fine-tuned as they can get it, so inclusive of the XBB sub-variants, and exclusive of older variants and sub-variants which aren’t circulating.
      2. As with other viruses of its nature – respiratory and the like – they often exhibit seasonality. Though SARS-CoV-2 didn’t always show this, overall (looking at the totality of data) it did. So, as we move indoors in the fall, yes, there will be more coronavirus around, similar to influenza. However, I do NOT expect a major wave.
      3. While I still believe that masking is a good thing in places like hospitals and even pharmacies and dental clinics, I do NOT expect masking to be universally adopted or mandated here in the coming years, unless a mutant totally different variant appears. And I do NOT expect the latter.

      1. Thanks Joshua. As for masking, it’s now optional at the Brigham but still mandatory at Dana- Farber. Don’t know about other facilities.

        Do you think the latest vaccine will be highly recommended for the general population or just the weak and elderly? I guess I fall into the latter.

      2. Thanks Joshua. I will plan to get this booster along with my flu vaccine. Not having mandatory masking in medical facilities is remarkably irresponsible IMO. Too many people are in those facilities are fighting serious medical issues to be exposed. I had hoped we’d learn. I knew better I guess.

      3. We dropped masking in my workplace on May 11 and there has only been ONE case of Covid from somebody who was vacationing. There have been zero resident cases.

        At the rehab my brother is at, they also dropped it on the same date and 5 weeks later the grand total of covid cases there is: zero.

        Note: Masks are still available at both locations, but not mandatory.

  30. I never been to Whalom Park but I do remember the tv commercials. I hope I have it right:

    “WHA-LOM PARK…FOR A WHALE-OF-A-TIME!!!” 😀

  31. I haven’t seen anything remotely close to sun so far today, not that I was expecting any.

  32. One more masking comment. There are still a number of cashiers (regardless of age) at the major grocery stores that wear masks throughout their shift. The baggers and shelf clerks mostly do not.

    March 17? 2020 – May 11, 2023

    1. My local grocery is optional. It’s about 50/50 with the cashiers. All good. Whatever makes you comfortable.

      I wear a mask when I do my yardwork. Does wonders for dust etc! 🙂

      1. 50/50 seems about right from my observation as well. What is somewhat surprising is that even some of the teenage/college age cashiers are just as likely to wear masks as well. The oldsters are pretty much a given.

        1. A couple of my grandkids continue to wear masks. None of my grands were ever bothered by them. I will always wear one when a place I go into is crowded and/or rates are high. I’m at high risk.

    1. Same here.

      We got drenched a few times today leaving multiple dance recitals. But, we didn’t lose a beach day, perfect day to be inside. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  35. Solid area of rainfall pretty much covers most of the state east of the CT Valley to the Cape.

  36. Out my way not a drop of rain today. Instead in and out sunshine for most of the day.
    Yankees Red Sox doubleheader tomorrow first game 1:35pm second game 7:10pm.

  37. I’ve been in a gap of the precip largely missing the heaviest rain all day and evening. Only 0.49” in the meter so far.

  38. Regarding Covid. My brother works in a substance abuse recovery center in Cohasset and they are having a bit of an outbreak there. Fortunately he has been negative but lives with my mom and she tested positive today after feeling lousy for a couple of days. She has had all of the vaccines but has COPD which obviously makes me nervous. Masks are now being worn at my brother’s workplace.

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