Saturday June 24 2023 Forecast (9:42AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

On this final weekend of June and first weekend of astronomical summer, we’re still talking about an unsettled pattern which has been with us pretty much all month. But that must be followed by the statement that we’ve had some pretty nice days in there too. As I’ve stated before, media will often focus on the negative so much so that they nearly prevent you from enjoying the good weather we have between the unsettled weather episodes. It’s also important to mention that the rainfall we’ve gotten this month has been preventing the region from slipping back into drought. Ironically though, the rainfall for the month, despite the above average days with rainfall, is still running near to below normal in many areas. But anyway, back to this weekend. We’ll be on the eastern side of upper level low pressure this weekend, in a southerly flow of warm, humid air. Today, a pretty solid disturbance goes by this morning and midday with a good swath of wet weather, but once it lifts beyond the region early this afternoon, we break into a sun/cloud mix across the region with only isolated showers and thunderstorms being a potential, but most areas staying rain-free, allowing later-day and evening outdoor plans to go on. Low clouds/fog may be stubborn at times along the South Coast both today and Sunday, limiting sunshine there while other areas see more of it. Sunday’s weather is a little less threatening in a coverage sense, as I now feel that instead of a scattered to numerous shower and storm situation, the coverage will be more of the isolated to scattered type, favoring the afternoon and early evening hours, but Sunday will also be the warmest day we’ve had in a while, with many areas in the 80s, except a cooler South Coast. An extension of high pressure to our northeast likely bends the wind flow around to more of an easterly set-up across the region by Monday, which can end up about 10 degrees cooler for high temps than Sunday in many areas. And it may take until later Tuesday to lose that and see more of a southerly air flow. Either way, the large scale wind pattern is at least partially if not directly onshore for either the eastern coastal or southern coastal areas Monday-Tuesday and even into Wednesday of next week when we should be in more of a southerly air flow regionwide. This would be in response to that many-times-talked-about second upper low that moves toward our region then slows down, like many others have done. The summation of this is that a humid, unsettled pattern continues into the middle of next week, but despite the gloom-and-doom look of your weather apps, you will likely find many hours of rain-free time in there as well.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with episodes of showers, becoming most widespread late morning-midday, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Clouds break for sun at times mid afternoon on but with the chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH while most areas are rain-free. Highs 76-83 likely occurring mid to late afternoon, warmest inland. Dew point 65-72. Wind variable but most often S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Areas of fog, most extensive South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Low clouds and fog dominate the South Coast region, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with early-day patchy fog elsewhere and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 78-85 except 71-78 South Coast. Dew point 65-72. Wind S to variable at times up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Periodic showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and numerous showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

One upper low exits to the east early in the period with still a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms June 29 & 30 but an overall drying trend. Next disturbance traverses the region during the first 3 days of July from west to east but this one is going to be up against less favorable conditions to hang together so shower / thunderstorm chances will be limited and temperatures will attempt to hang out closer to seasonal normals heading into the Independence Day holiday period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

Still not the highest confidence on the outlook this far in advance but still the overall trend is for a minimal shower and thunderstorm chance during this period but also a lack of significant heat. Plenty of fine-tuning to come…

55 thoughts on “Saturday June 24 2023 Forecast (9:42AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK for a beautifully detailed discussion.

    REALLY HUMID this morning!!!!!!

    Dew point 70 at Logan, Bedford and Norwood.
    And Surprisingly, my equipment is reading 70 as well. 🙂

    1. You’re welcome. I gotta tell you, writing those is a piece of cake compared to the energy I put into trying to steer people away from basing every weather-related decision on their phone’s weather app. 🙂

      1. I hear you. I have some friends that rely on those phone apps and I “try” to educate them to no avail. 🙂

        I have app on my phone I rely upon, but of course that goes directly to here.

        1. Even if you seem to convince someone, it works for a day, maybe, and then they’re right back to doing the same thing, even though they routinely get screwed by that method (and then resort to blaming the meteorologist). We simply can’t win this one.

      1. Well that’s the thing, those are not rainfall numbers for today’s event. Which is why the statement “all about the context” was made. 🙂

  7. When I posted a clip on WHW yesterday on Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture (piece chosen by Fiedler to cap off the Pops July 4th music and set the stage for fireworks), I couldn’t imagine the events unfolding late last night and today in Russia. Tchaikovsky lived through Russian turmoil. He would have known it firsthand. Russia is an enigma. Poorly governed forever and it doesn’t matter who’s at the top, yet an incredibly rich culture, whether music, arts, literature, or engineering, sciences, and so many other things. As is always the case, it’s ordinary Russians who will suffer from civil strife. Not the oligarchs.

    1. I saw some on Russia. Will have to read more. Of late I try to stay away from the news. Mac worked with two Russian women …now US Citizens ….with family still in Russia. They shared really chilling stories

      And on to Dan F. I was at a friend’s artisan shop this morning to pick up a birthday gift I’d ordered for my grandson. When I walked in Same Old Lang Syne was playing on her radio.

  8. South shore Yogi is on Coast Guard Hill now. I would not be at all surprised if he has been at Humarock. This is his route so far…

    “This one went from Plymouth, through Kingston, Duxbury, Marshfield, Scituate, Cohasset, back through N Scituate, Marshfield Hills, Holly Hill down to Towne Way in Rexhame/Fieldston.”

    2. https://www.google.com/search?q=Hey+hey+hey+yogi+bear&client=firefox-b-1-d&ei=IiGXZLaZN4fm5NoP0ratyAY&ved=0ahUKEwi2svvqsNz_AhUHM1kFHVJbC2kQ4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=Hey+hey+hey+yogi+bear&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQAzIFCC4QgAQyBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABCKBRCGAzIICAAQigUQhgMyEwguEIAEEJcFENwEEN4EEOAEGAE6BAgAEEc6BwgAEIoFEEM6CgguEIoFENQCEEM6CAguEIAEENQCOgsILhCABBCxAxDUAjoFCAAQgAQ6BwguEIoFEEM6CAguEIoFEJECOgsILhDUAhCKBRCRAjoLCC4QigUQ1AIQkQI6FgguEIoFEJECEJcFENwEEN4EEOAEGAFKBAhBGABQsgdY5x5gwyBoAHACeACAAfcCiAGkEJIBBzAuOC4xLjGYAQCgAQHAAQHIAQjaAQYIARABGBQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:e1cd0ac2,vid:ghhAeQAaedA

  10. Aaaaaaand Salisbury Beach cancels their opening night fireworks – based on a weather app forecast – that will be inaccurate. It’s going to be a beautiful summer evening up there with just about a 1 in 10 shot of a quick passing shower early on. Oh well, what a shame.

    Weather apps are nearly done destroying the profession I have now vowed to never go back to full-time. I’m all set thanks! 🙂

  11. DPs all across the area are from 68 to 73. YUCK!!!!!!

    71 dp here

    Thankfully the temperature is only in the 70s!!!

      1. yup, so far. Thanks. It is pretty nasty for sure, at leas the temp is not way up there. 78 now, dp 70. There is a nice breeze blowing through the house with ALL the windows open. 🙂

        1. Hopefully the breeze keeps going during this very humid stretch. A calm day could be brutal.

  12. Thanks TK.

    The morning tv mets reminded us that it has rained EVERY Saturday in June and 4 of the last 5 Saturdays overall. 😉

    Will the Saturday trend continue?

    1. Yeah, but in most cases it wasn’t all day. Only one of them was a “washout” …but see? They key on the negative.

  14. Saw your post on Salisbury fireworks. It surprises me as the Pyro companies as you know have a ton of experience when it comes to timing and postponing. I am assuming it was fireworks company that postpojed. Our contract only allows for company to postpond or we lose deposit.

        1. Sadly, there are not enough Pryo companies to make that happen. Ours were to be Monday night…not a day of the week I liked having to plan for….but the field could not be Hayed in time. The company is being amazingly understanding.

          All of that aside, our true Independence Day is July 2 😉

          1. I was saw the line go through there around maybe 6:00. Each year we have had them, they started setup we had to open closed roads for them to get to the field between 4:00 and 5:00. I wonder if that is why they postponed.

            1. Hope you can Follow that. Five grandkids running around here. It’s why I was watching the radar. Making sure they could play outside 🙂 🙂

          2. I just reread our contract. I’m not sure who Salisbury uses for a Pyro company. Our wording is incredibly specific regarding penalty fees when it comes to the customer cancelling or postponing in under 48 hours. It really is at the discretion of the fireworks company I don’t know who Salisbury uses. TK May well know. He was the person who recommended the company we have used each year.

    1. 2:56 AM
      Sunday, June 25, 2023 (GMT-2)
      Sunrise in Nuuk, Greenland
      12:03 AM
      Sunday, June 25, 2023 (GMT-2)
      Sunset in Nuuk, Greenland

  17. Still kind of a wash out summer so far…still waiting for 80 degrees nightstand hot sunny days like we had during those few days in April…

  18. The Salisbury fireworks display is on a barge and by the company American Thunder. They probably didn’t make the decision. I know they don’t when they do the Hampton display. I’m on the “in” with those guys as they are the ones I get to go down to the launch zone with for photos etc (and whenever I get the chance to dawn my PPE I can be in the “zone” for an actual shoot for close-up video / photos).

    Anyway, Upton display was very good and I got to hang with my friend and her daughter for a while as they live close by to that and I picked them up. 🙂

    1. Interesting that they don’t make the decision. Sure leaves them wide open for losing money. Does Salisbury have regular fireworks shows throughout the summer? American thunder has them listed as Saturday nights. AT also does a lot of the shows right around Sutton.

      I was surprised we didn’t hear the booms from Upton. Glad you had a show to go to.

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