DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)
We have 2 days with thunderstorm threats out of the next 5 as the pattern continues to shift. While I think the talk of the heat was over-hyped by media, yes it’s going to be quite warm to hot today and tomorrow, and part of Saturday anyway, and anybody working outside or sensitive to heat should be aware and be cautious. Our bigger concern is a severe weather threat today as a trough slices through the humid, warm to hot air later. Limiting factor: Debris clouds from convective activity to our west yesterday. We should destabilize enough to see a broken line of thunderstorms moving west northwest to east southeast across the region during the second half of the afternoon to the early evening. The orientation of the line suggests that some cells can move over the same areas for a little while, resulting in a flash flood threat especially due to previous rain and still saturated ground. Hail is a threat in stronger storms. The atmosphere also contains enough wind shear for possible rotating storms which can produce isolated tornadoes. Downburst and straight line damage are more likely though. A few isolated storms may occur ahead of the line by mid afternoon, and the line will likely be most “together” from I-90 northward, before it starts to lose organization and weaken but still consist of a few strong storms as it presses south and east. Watch radar closely / listen to any warnings from NWS / avoid “warnings” from non-met pages! The rest of the forecast is pretty much unchanged. Tomorrow’s a hot day, slightly lower dew points (except the South Coast), behind the trough, but still with high pressure aloft. Saturday’s our next thunderstorm threat, and timing and coverage will depend on the speed of the front. Right now, still leaning earlier, with details to be worked out. But early idea, we likely have another severe storm threat at least for some portion of the region. Then we get a shot of cooler (but still nice) and much drier air for the final 2 days of July – something we have not seen in quite some time around here.
TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong to severe. Highs 86-93. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s to lower 70s. South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)
Zonal flow – trough from eastern Canada to New England. Pattern cooler (near to below normal temps), fewer shower chances.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)
Zonal flow – trough Great Lakes. More humid, warmer but no sustained heat, more shower chances.