Tuesday March 21 2023 Forecast (7:13AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)

This first full day of spring will also be the pick of the week for weather, with high pressure in control and mild air in place. But the pattern is still rather active, and we’ll have a number of weather systems to contend with going forward into the weekend. The first is a cold front which slides across the region tonight with little fanfare – just some clouds. The front will settle to our south briefly before returning as a warm front Wednesday with more clouds, putting us back into a slice of warmer air but this time with unsettled conditions Wednesday night and Thursday. This will be because an area of low pressure will travel just to our north during this time, then pull the frontal boundary back to the south later Thursday into Friday, but not all that far to the south. So while our rain threat may drop off on Friday, clouds will likely hang on, setting us up for a chance at more precipitation Saturday as a larger area of low pressure moves into the region from the west southwest. This one may have enough cold air to work with to produce some sleet or snow for a portion of the region early in the weekend, though this far out it does not look like a significant frozen precipitation event.

TODAY: Sunshine – few clouds late. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 38-45 Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, possibly some sleet and/or snow especially inland and higher elevations. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)

A stretch of unsettled weather with a couple low pressure systems likely impacting the region. Rain is favored, but enough cold air may become involved for parts of the region to see mix/snow on a couple occasions.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

Indications are for an active pattern with a couple bouts of unsettled weather and temperatures near to below normal.

65 thoughts on “Tuesday March 21 2023 Forecast (7:13AM)”

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    After getting to 53 yesterday PM, it still dropped to 33 overnight. Such is life with Spring in NE. 🙂

    Running at 60 today! Let’s see who makes it.

    1. We hit 53 also and I thought the same when I saw 33 here. Then we went to 21. I can tell in the night if it is under 30 without looking at our thermometer. Ours heat pump switches to propane under 30 and not that it is loud to begin with (not as loud as the oil furnace), it is whisper quiet with the propane

      1. Interesting that we are so close due8 f the daylight hours and then differ by a decent number at night?

        Cold sinking into lower areas? Although I’m not sure I’m lower than you.

        Heat retained by more asphalt/buildings?

  13. Thanks TK.

    As Tom mentioned above, California still cannot catch a break. This latest system coming in is proving to be especially notable from a wind perspective, but is also adding on plenty more rain and snow.

    The video below, I at first thought was taken at a coastal location and showing tidal inundation. It’s actually taken from the San Joaquin Valley region of California, south of Fresno. Parts of that valley, a key agricultural region, are starting to become an inland sea. Which is not unprecedented (and is how the valley was originally formed) but is not something modern society has really dealt with. I honestly believe that if we were to get a major warm rainstorm with high snow levels in the next couple weeks, it would be among the most devastating weather events in US (if not global) history.

    Thankfully, the current storm is not a warm one, and I’m guardedly optimistic that we’ll be entering the dry season pretty soon without a major warm rain event. But it still leaves an enormous amount of snow that has to melt off and will continue to keep water levels very high for weeks and likely months to come…

    https://twitter.com/olenhogenson/status/1638230805259632641?s=46&t=kteMjNNILxw5SUchLQETBg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862

    1. Hope you are right about the easier transition to the dry season there. It’s already been harsh enough.

      Very important to note that the San Joaquin Valley seeing flooding that is not unprecedented, just hasn’t happened in a long, long time. I’ve talked about this in the past as this was one of my major areas to forecast during my days as a senior ag meteorologist. Alot of the big impact events are so not because the weather event hasn’t happened before, but because we’re more populated and “using” land that a long time ago was barely touched. Nothing there to impact, it’s going to be low impact. Lots there to impact, it’s going to be high impact. Very similar to coastal damage from tropical systems. Lots more along the coast to damage – cost of everything higher – of course the damage and resultant costs are going to soar!

      1. Yep. The kicker for me is that it’s not an El Nino year. And as a general rule, I think ENSO impacts on regional weather patterns are overrated. But the correlations between it and the Western US winter are pretty well established, and it’s pretty uncommon to get a year this wet without El Nino, let alone exiting a triple dip La Nina. Would not be at all surprised if we’re entering a longer term, cyclical wet period here though.

        Continuing to keep your brother and family in my thoughts as well TK!

        1. I won’t be surprised either. Time will tell and it will certainly be interesting from a scientific standpoint – and hopefully manageable from a residential and agricultural one.

          Thank you for the good thoughts. 🙂

          My brother walked with a walker yesterday (without help – just 2 nurses next to him), and was going outside today for a little while. 🙂

  14. CPC .. below normal temps / above normal precip through the next 2 or 3 weeks. I agree.

    And MJO which is dropping to almost non-existent may suddenly re-emerge in phase 8 just in time to assist in making possible a very late season winter storm threat at the end of March or beginning of April. Don’t put away the shovels yet (or don’t bury them deep if you have). 😉

    1. I’m not sure about specifics yet but that just shows you the general idea that “winter” may not be quite done with parts of the area – and history shows that is nothing to scoff at. 🙂

  17. Very nice spring day. So bright, which is quite typical in March. There are no leaves after all to filter the sun a bit. And the sun angle is equivalent to mid September.

    While I’m generally not a big fan of spring (I especially don’t care for spring colors like pink, white (technically not a color), and yellow), I love observing nature in spring. The birds near me are busy building their new homes. No contractors involved. No competitive bidding. No tools. Just instinct and instinctual skills that are so impressive. The cycle has repeated itself over and over again since birds first emerged on this earth hundreds of millions of years ago. If there’s reincarnation – which I don’t believe in, by the way – I’d like to be a bird or a big cat.

    1. We all enjoy each season for our own reasons which is as it should be. I love all seasons. And it’s fair to say all weather. I love the new birth of spring … the world coming alive after its winters sleep.

      1. Cancel all of the temps just posted. Something seemed off so I checked. The sensor had shifted in the wind and a small corner of the sensor was being hit by the sun.

        It is 59 and we did touch 60

  19. Temps behaved today. Forecast 53-60 for the WHW area.
    53-61 are the readings I’m getting so far (except a tad cooler on Nantucket – no surprise there).

    Max heating is done so that should be it. Not as cool tonight as last night was. 🙂

      1. I just saw that. Oops. I’ve had that happen.
        When my temp sensor with my Computemp (my first recording thermometer) was put up, it was too low under it’s shading and the sun would hit it at a certain point in the season, which we didn’t know at first until the temp shot into the 80s while it was still actually under 70. 🙂 An upward adjustment fixed that!

        1. The outdoor heat pump sensor is beside my weather sensor and completely out of the sun. Both have been identical. But the sun is now at just enough of an angle to catch a tiny corner of the sensor. The placement is perfect but I’ll have to tweak it a bit tomorrow

  20. Video of a man who lives alone in a small wooden house in Siberia. See link below. I like the cold, but I’m not up for doing what he’s doing. By the way, like quite a number of people in Siberia, this man looks Native American. As we know, the Native Americans came to America by way of the Bering Strait, thousands of years ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOltGIaDPlY

  21. Ocean temps on the rise. Water temps never dropped below forty degrees of the south coast this winter.

  23. Latest Buoy temp for Boston Buoy, 16 NM East of Boston:

    03 21 6:10 pm – – – – – – – 30.27 – – 41.2

    41.2 degrees. It is certainly above ave by 3-4 degrees. 🙂

    3.51 degrees to be exact

    1. My BIL said they have three days of sun starting Friday. But I suspect your friends know this since three consecutive days has not happened for too long

  28. From WBUR:

    The coveted return of warm weather in New England means many things: longer days, blooming flowers and, unfortunately, ticks.

    After yet another mild winter, experts say a rare tick-borne disease is on the rise. Babesiosis — a malaria-type disease that was first found in the U.S. over 50 years ago on Nantucket — is now endemic to all six states in New England. Here’s what to know:

    Late last week, the CDC published its first comprehensive survey on babesiosis, finding a 25% increase in nationwide cases from 2011 to 2019. NPR reports that babesiosis is now considered endemic in all of northern New England, in addition to Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island (where it already was endemic). The disease is carried by deer ticks.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. I read an article in this yesterday but it said it was more prevalent in NH and ME. I did look up symptoms as I was worried it could be what my daughter was dealing with but the symptoms of this are extreme

      Makes me smile a bit when media thinks ticks return with warmer weather. They pull them off the horses year round

  30. If you’re a baseball, then the past two weeks, and especially the past 3-5 days will be the highlights of the 2023 season. I’ve been watching baseball for a very long time, and these were some of the best games I’ve watched in a very long time. Having it end with Ohtani vs Trout? You couldn’t have scripted that any better.

    Trout is on the very short list of players that were never on the Red Sox, but I loved watching them so much that I bought the jersey anyways. That list includes 4 names: Mike Trout (Angels jersey and a Team USA jersey) Frank Thomas (Chicago White Sox), Ken Griffey Jr. (Seattle Mariners), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays). Others who should be on that list, but I don’t have the jersey (yet): Ichiro Suzuki, Shohei Ohtani, Nolan Ryan, Rod Carew, Willie Mays. The list in hockey is a lot longer.

    Opening Day is 8 days away. Mark my words – the Red Sox will exceed most expectations this season. Not saying they’ll make the playoffs, but they’ll be better than people think.

    1. Agree 100%. I can tell you baseball hopefully isn’t dead. Both my boys 10 and 13 wanted to watch last night. What an ending. Maybe the best two players in baseball.

    2. I’m not as big a baseball fan as you are, but I do enjoy it. Some great players on that list! I’d expect your hockey list to take a lot longer to type out. haha!

      All I’ve been hearing is “how bad the Sox are gonna be” every time I happen across sports radio and they’re talking about it. But I’ll take your word for it – I bet they do end up better than expected.

      This is a fun time of year to be a sports fan.

  31. Thanks TK.

    Back from an epic week of skiing. See the storm didn’t pan out. Just not our winter.

    I told this to TK but honestly no more eerie feeling than hearing dynamite explosions all over the place to limit the dangers of avalanches. I am sure our west they will be working on that throughout the spring. But to actually hearing it as you ski is incredible.

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