Wednesday March 22 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)

58 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)

Now that spring has arrived and you were teased with a mostly sunny and mild day yesterday, you probably would love a string of such days. But you’re not going to get that. This is New England, and it may be spring, but it’s also still March, and it’s rare to have such a stretch of weather so early in this season. What we will be seeing is an active pattern sending a couple lows and frontal systems our way, with temperature changes, and often unsettled weather through the coming weekend. Here’s how I expect it to break down: Weak high pressure holds on today with fair weather during the day, but clouds increase ahead of a warm front. That front may produce a little light rainfall later tonight as it goes through, and then we get into a warm sector between it and a cold front as a wave of low pressure passes to our north on Thursday. Along with a warmer day Thursday, we’ll have to contend with rain showers triggered by the frontal boundary that is moving into the region. This will push through at night and while it dries us out for Friday, clouds may be stubborn to depart and it will also turn cooler. The dry interlude will be brief as the next low pressure area makes a run at our region from the west southwest by the weekend. Saturday is expected to be a chilly, overcast day with the warm front from the next system not really making it into and definitely not through the region as high pressure to the north and northeast holds the colder air in – maybe enough cold so that some areas start as snow and/or sleet for a brief time on Saturday before going to rain. A secondary low forming and moving just south of our region will do its part to hold the chilly air in, so when it starts to pull away Sunday we stay on the cool side, even if we dry out – which may be a slow process. So, not the greatest outlook for the first weekend of spring here – and it should come as no surprise. 🙂

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 49-56, coolest South Coast. Wind E shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain, especially late evening and overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 38-45 Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, possibly some sleet and/or snow especially inland and higher elevations at the start. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain tapering to drizzle. Lows 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle, then clouds may break. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)

The home stretch of March is expected to feature a continued pattern of frequent weather changes. Highest confidence of a dry day maybe even a sunnier one on March 27, then lower confidence on timing of systems but lots of clouds and additional wet weather (maybe even some frozen precipitation involved) heading through next week. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)

Overall pattern continues to look wetter and cooler than normal for the early days of April.

58 thoughts on “Wednesday March 22 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  11. The big snow ran from the Euro ….. right to the GFS 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    There is some hint at Neg NAO projections ahead and phase 8 for MJO if I recall what TK wrote yesterday ??????????

  12. Weird, I typed a comment and it wasn’t there when I reloaded the blog. Typed it again and now still not there. Not sure if I’m doing something wrong.

  13. 57 in SE Sutton. Confirmed in too many places to name but NOAA was one. Can you tell I’m jumpy after yesterdays discovery.

  16. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2023032212&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023032212&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The GFS is cold and the Euro is over amplified 🙂 🙂 🙂

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023032212&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Another would be impressive 500 mb feature capturing and looping a surface low.

  17. Beautiful spring day , so happy any extreme winter weather is behind us . Put my American flag back up on my farmers porch out front .

    2. oh, I knew that. Like boston, The official weather is at the airport which is totally different than the rest of the city.

      1. Got it. I was just looking for places around here that has hot 60. At the time that was the only one as I recall

          1. I was just looking at the map. Closer to 495 there are high 50s but you have to get just outside of 495 to see 60

  22. Today, my brother gripped and picked up a towel with his right hand and exclaimed (in slightly slurred but very audible speech) “It’s a miracle!” … Progress. 🙂

  23. Weather ideas…

    No real changes to what’s written.

    Very interesting storm signal for wintry involvement March 28-29. Starting to see some consistency there and some ensemble and CFS support. No details possible. Will monitor in the days ahead…

    Signals I am seeing say cool & unsettled April ahead. We’ll have to take advantage of any nicer days we get because they may be somewhat limited.

    1. 84 in Woburn that day. I walked the lake in Wakefield with shorts and summer dreams, while a gusty wind was still blowing winter’s road sand around. 😉

    1. The way Boston has been avoiding measurable snow, plows will not be needed for the field. Just blow dryers for drying. It’s PLAY BALL! for 3/30.

      The Worcester baseball team, a different story. 👿

  27. video of tornado in Los Angeles area earlier today

    https://twitter.com/njtehcherchian/status/1638619597959229440

    Statement from NWS LA Office
    The Montebello potential tornado is still UNCONFIRMED by the National Weather Service. We have a team on the way to survey the damage and make an assessment. We will post those findings on Twitter as soon as possible, please monitor our page for official updates

    Ryan Hanrahan response to that tweet
    This is weird to me. It was obviously a tornado – so just say it. You can come up with intensity, path length, etc. at a later time

    1. Enough is enough for that state. I saw a media report that a second MAY have touched down around sonata Barbara

      1. The 1 thing I’m struggling to wrap my head around is the pattern the western US saw this winter at the tail end of a 3 yr moderate La Niña.

        What happened this winter on the west coast usually corresponds more to an ongoing El Niño.

        1. Not always. We’ve had both dry El Nino and wet La Nina.
          The wet El Nino is really more for strong El Nino episodes.
          The La Nina can go either way, but larger scale things had them in a drought for a while so a handful of the La Nina episodes were drier.

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