DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

High pressure sits south of New England today and Thursday, delivering higher humidity, aided by the approach and passage of a warm front extending from low pressure moving through the Great Lakes – the front approaching today, passing through tonight, and our region in the low’s warm sector Thursday. Shower potential exists with the frontal passage this evening and tonight, and a disturbance passing through the region, acting with the warmth and humidity, can result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day Thursday. It should be noted that the activity later Thursday, while not widespread, could include strong to severe storms, so it will be something we need to monitor closely. Friday, the frontal boundary looks like it will get shoved back to the southwest as a back-door cold front by Canadian high pressure, and this will knock the temperature down a few notches, especially at north-facing and east-facing coastal areas, but that front should lift back to the northeast at night just as a cold front approaches from the west. This will be a weakening frontal boundary but still can trigger a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. The timing looks late night Friday to early morning Saturday, which will likely limit the potency of convective activity, being far from hours of maximum solar heating. Behind that trough, while it is a very warm day Saturday, it should be stable enough to limit or eliminate any potential pop-up showers and storms. I’ve been keeping a close eye on Sunday for the potential of thunderstorms along a stronger cold front. While I haven’t seen enough consistency in model guidance to make me highly confident of this, I am more confident that we’ll see that front still pretty far back to the northwest during the day, which likely ends up threat-free in our area, with shower and t-storm potential increasing somewhat from west to east at night. I’ll continue to monitor this. So, based on current thoughts, shower and t-storm threats in the early morning hours of Saturday and the nighttime hours of Sunday mean that most of the weekend would be dry, without the worry of any convective interruptions for your outdoor plans!

TODAY: Sun becoming limited by lots of clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers around and the remote chance of a thunderstorm. Fog patches overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point reaches then exceeds 60. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered late-day thunderstorms with the potential for a strong to severe storm. Highs 83-90. Dew point pushes 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Lows 65-72. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Remote chance of isolated shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 75-82 coast, 83-90 inland. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring western areas. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy then increasing sun. A shower or thunderstorm possible early morning, favoring eastern areas. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+ but may drop somewhat during the afternoon. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley, swamp, and bog fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind NW dropping to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 85-92 but may be cooler in some coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but can give way to local coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

The large scale pattern features a broad trough of low pressure from the Great Lakes to Northeast early through middle portion of next week, presenting some opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Details to-be-determined. Fair weather is expected to return by late week. Temperatures trend a little cooler through midweek, then rebound at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

Still monitoring the medium range guidance for signs of consistency. Best pattern signal indicates high pressure ridging returning to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes which would put our region in a northwest flow. This would be a mostly dry pattern, but we’d have to watch for a couple of progressive disturbances to trigger shower and thunderstorm chances. One thing that is certain: The summer solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT on June 21.