DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

The swiftly-moving remains of Isaias still managed to bring over 1 inch of rain to many areas last night – a good slug of moisture and still-needed to continue to ease a longer-term precipitation deficit despite better rainfall since late summer. If today is a holiday for you, it will be rain-free one with improving conditions, and it will be quite mild with many areas making it to near 70 for high temps. We do have more weather changes on the way – not atypical for our area as we head deeper into autumn. Low pressure moves quickly in from the west northwest Tuesday bringing a frontal boundary into the region. Showers return and are most numerous north of I-90 with fewer to the south. The frontal boundary briefly pushes back to the north for part of Wednesday – the warmest day of the week – but then comes back through as a cold front with a possible shower later in the day. This leads a cooler air mass into our region for Thursday when dry weather is expected as high pressure moves into and across the region. But our quick-moving pattern indicates that the next low pressure area wastes no time getting here on Friday, a day that looks unsettled. The track of low pressure will determine details. At “day 5” there is a spread across guidance from a low that tracks to our south, bringing a cooler, steadier rain, and a low that tracks across northern New England or down the St. Lawrence Valley bringing us a period of rain with a warm front then a shower chance with a cold front, with a break in between. Other guidance brings the low right across the region with the resultant weather somewhere in-between the other two scenarios. For today’s update, the wording will be generalized, and the fine-tuning will then begin as it gets closer.

TODAY: Cloudy start including areas of fog, then clearing with sunshine returning. Highs 65-72. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return north to south. Shower chance southern NH by dawn. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely north of I-90. Chance of showers to the south. Highs 58-65. Wind variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SE shifting to SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW by later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Low pressure departs while intensifying, but an upper trough still has to cross the region early next weekend (October 17), so expect a windy day with a passing shower possible – with the potential for mix / wet snow in higher elevations with any showers. Later weekend (October 18) is cool, dry, and more tranquil as high pressure builds in. High pressure moves offshore October 19-20 with fair, milder weather before a frontal system brings a shower chance at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

One frontal system departs early period and another crosses the region after mid period bringing brief unsettled weather in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with variable temperatures that don’t stray too far from normal.