Friday Forecast

262 Comments

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)…
Heat and humidity will be the story today with an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may end up severe, but the question becomes: who is most likely to see such storms? At this point, the answer is: anybody. But the key is coverage. I don’t think overall coverage will end up being too widespread, so for all the threat that exists, there are likely to be many areas with minimal or no impact from storms. Timing of potential storms will be anywhere in the window from about 2PM to about 10PM, favoring western areas of MA to start, central and east central MA by evening, and southeastern MA, CT, and RI evening into early at night. Any storms may contain damaging wind gusts, hail, torrential downpours, and frequent lightning. Activity settles down and departs overnight. Saturday will be another hot and rather humid day, but the edge may come off the humidity as one trough line will have moved through. A second one of these will approach later in the day and a few isolated thunderstorms may result. After the passage of this trough, we’ll be set up for a very warm to hot and less humid Sunday. Humidity returns Monday, along with heat, as another disturbance approaches from the west, bringing the next risk of showers and thunderstorms late Monday possibly into Tuesday.
TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. A few isolated showers are possible early. Isolated thunderstorms possible by mid to late afternoon favoring areas north and west of Boston. Humid. Highs 80-88 South Coast, 89-97 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may end up favoring areas west and south of Boston. Any storms may be strong to locally severe. Humid. Lows 67-74, warmest urban areas. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87 Cape Cod and Islands, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 67-77, warmest urban areas. Wind light NW.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod and Islands, 86-92 elsewhere.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 65-75, warmest urban areas. Highs 84-91 South Coast, 92-98 elsewhere.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows 65-75, warmest urban areas. Highs 80-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)…
High pressure builds out of Canada with warm and less humid weather July 27. More humidity and a risk of showers/storms returning sometime July 28-29 before a return to warm to hot and dry weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)…
A fairly humid and warm period with a few episodes of showers/thunderstorms.

262 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. It will fade coming eastward and some of the debris cloud may slightly limit heating for parts of north central and northeastern MA as well as southern NH.

  3. IMPORTANT NOTES…

    The convection that threatens any location in New England today with severe weather has not developed yet. The old complex is a result of yesterday’s activity and would fade before it got this far, if it was tracking this way, which it isn’t anyway.

    Coverage is likely to be isolated to scattered. This is not going to be a full-coverage event. In other words, most locations (greater than 50%) will likely see no storm at all today / tonight. This is expected to be the case. Storms not occurring in the area you are in does not mean the forecast is “wrong”. There will be storms in parts of New England today, and they indeed have the potential to be very strong to severe.

  4. Thanks Tk . I’m still hoping for dry and hot days Tuesday night through Friday afternoon as we hit the beach up Hampton . I need all day at the beach .

      1. I’ll be up there a couple times during that time. Perhaps we’ll run into each other. Check back for more detail on the weather.

  5. Watch for an area of drying today that may inhibit convection in parts of central and southern VT, central and southern NH, southern Maine, and possibly north central and eastern MA (lower confidence for the MA portion).

    1. Dew points will probably drop in parts of northern MA as well as a swath of VT NH and southern Maine in several hours.

  11. And what about Steven Wright?

    Wright, S BOS 12 5 2.67

    12 wins.

    He has now completed the 1st 1/2 and 2 games into the 2nd half.
    I think he is for real.

    NICE!

  12. FWIW, the latest HRRR shows practically ZERO chance of any tornadoes, especially
    in Eastern sections. We shall see if the 12Z NAM thinks the same.

  14. I think the high cloud debris from the storm complex in NW PA is going southwest of us and there’s not much mid to high level clouds to our NW.

    Blazing sun for the next many hours.

      2. That’s actually a visual of drying that may inhibit convection in previously mentioned areas.

  15. Thanks TK. I agree with Tom: cloud debris not an issue today. However, dew points mainly in the low-mid 60s isn’t ideal. Dew points will be the numbers to watch, not the temps, as those will surely soar into the 90s.

    1. Thank goodness for that. 95F with a 75F dewpoint, prevalent in the Midwest the last few days, sounds unbearable.

      1. OK, but how are we getting it. Subsidence is sinking air and sinking air dries. I am not trying to be an ass here, but rather
        totally understand how this is happening.

        I understand there was a bunch of convection up North last night. Is the old outflow boundaries (Down flowing air from old convection) seeping down into central and southern ME, NH, VT and possible Northern MA?

        Many thanks

        Here is the surface map:

        http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

  17. SPC has updated their outlook for today. Little or no change from previous outlook.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1469194317831

    …NERN CONUS…
    WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
    THIS REGION…EPISODICALLY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. FOCI
    WILL INCLUDE SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT FROM MAINE SWWD ACROSS MID
    ATLC…AS WELL AS OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES. MAIN
    CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS…WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO
    POSSIBLE.

    DEEP SHEAR IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH AFTN AMIDST HEIGHT
    FALLS ALOFT…AS ONT PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
    SPEED MAX APCH. THIS WILL BE CONTERMINOUS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
    RELATED BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION…AMIDST SFC DEW POINTS
    COMMONLY 60S F. ONE WILD-CARD FACTOR IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY WILL
    BE EFFECT OF CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING NON-SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OH/PA/WRN NY. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS OTLK…FCST SOUNDINGS STILL
    SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK
    AREA…BEHIND LEADING PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING
    CONVECTION IN MAINE. THIS…ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/
    CONVERGENCE DUE TO LIGHT AND WLY NATURE OF NEAR-SFC FLOW…MAY MUTE
    COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER…FAVORABLE
    LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SPEED SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
    ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN
    SUSTAINED CONVECTION.

  19. Thanks TK.
    SPC moved the slight risk a little southward to include all of CT and NYC area.
    Marginal risk tomorrow for a good chunk of MA clipping northern parts of CT

    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Still on track for scattered strong/severe storms later today. Best chance will be after 5 p.m

  20. Thank you TK and Happy Friday to all! Taking the afternoon off and hitting a friend’s pool with my boys. Good way to end a crazy week!

  21. 84 at the airport while maintaing dp 63.

    Closest approach of 50s dewpoints are in the White Mountain National Forest
    in NH with some dps at 55 up there.

    Concord, NH dp still maintaining at: 63

  22. Its full sunshine where I am. The thought last night by some of our meteorologist is we could see clouds in the morning. If that drier air doesn’t mix in down here look out.

    1. DP up to 73 in NYC already. It was a rapid rise. Into the upper 60s
      or even 70 across ALL of Connecticut already. The dp is rising rapidly
      to our SouthWest.

      If you don’t already have this link or don’t have it book marked, you can
      easily monitor the surface temperatures, dew points and wind across
      the whole area with this cool map. I use it all the time. I think it is awesome and we have SAK to thank for turning us onto this.

      http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=8&scroll_zoom=true&center=42.14915080911932,-73.4271240234375&basemap=ESRI%20Topographic&boundaries=false,false,false&hazard=true&hazard_type=severe&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind&obs_popup=false&obs_density=1

  23. Quick peak at the 12z NAM on cod site looks like it wants to take bigger severe parameters towards southwestern parts of CT and NYC area.

  25. 12z NAM picking up on instability for tomorrow enough for thunderstorm development. Marginal risk up tomorrow and will see if this changes with SPC outlook around 1:30pm.

  27. Latest from NWS a few minutes ago. Kind of downplaying it just a tad.

    Most of the forecast area remains in a slight risk from SPC.
    Vertical shear looks to be marginally high enough to support a
    strong storm or two combined with sufficient instability. NAM may
    be a little overdone in its convective robustness but still looks
    like enough ingredients in place for pulse storms and perhaps
    small clusters with the potential for localized damaging winds and
    large hail. Precipitable waters of 1.5+ inches suggest heavy
    downpours could also be an issue. It is difficult to pinpoint
    exactly where these storms will fire. There is a suggestion of a
    weak boundary in eastern NY along the I-90 corridor and some
    activity may initially fire over the higher terrain. Then, may see
    outflow boundaries from one storm or cluster be the initiating
    mechanism for future convection. The surface instability looks to
    remain high well into the evening and think may see individual
    storms or small clusters develop off and on through at least mid
    evening. Believe we may start to see thunderstorm development
    initiate around 3 PM.

  29. Special Weather Statement just came out with todays thunderstorm potential as well as tomorrow.
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
    EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
    GUSTS…HAIL…AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
    LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING. THE TIME OF GREATEST RISK OF STRONG OR
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
    EVENING. SEEK SHELTER IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED
    FOR YOUR AREA OR THE SKY BECOMES THREATENING.

    ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
    INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
    INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

  31. Wondering if the drying doesn’t actually materialize OR it was short lived and over already. Previously mentioned dps of 50s in the White Mountain National are now
    in the mid-60s. Hmmm

  32. Thank you TK

    Doesn’t pay to take a morning off. Lots of catching up to do here.

    87 with 70 DP and winds 22 out of what Wunder says is SW. Although where I am sitting it is WNW and as strong as it has been

  34. 12z GFS is a Joke with it’s Cape both for today and tomorrow.

    For today about 1,000 joules is about all it can manage.

    1. Ok, that makes sense. Thanks.

      But you don’t expect that drying above to reach the Boston area, do you?

      We desperately need the rain.

  40. While you’re all worried about severe storms that may or may not happen later today around here, there’s records being set for tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific. Oh yeah, and a tropical storm headed right for Hawaii. I dedicated a blog post to it today: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2016/07/22/trouble-in-paradise-tropical-storm-darby-threatens-hawaii/

    Also, before you complain about the heat too much, it hit 129 in Basra, Iraq today: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/ORMM.html That’s the air temperature, not the heat index.

    (For the record – I am not expecting much in the way of severe weather around here today/tonight. Just some scattered strong storms, mainly this evening. Possibly a few more tomorrow afternoon.)

  42. Thank you, TK! Great forecast and great explanation.

    I’m hoping for some rain to hit the coastal areas. We shall see.

    1. FAT chance of that happening. Model simulations show ZERO rain
      for Boston. We Shall see.

      I think this is another situation gone bust OR Should I say not meeting
      our initial expectations. 😀

      I suppose we could still get something, but when we have a pro like SAK saying
      that he doesn’t expect much, it can of takes the wind out of my sails. 😀

      1. Tomorrow Jp Dave. Barry was more enthusiastic about tstorm chances tomorrow for our local area.

        Plus, my wife’s cousin is getting married tomorrow, it’s outside, so we’re going to get clobbered.

  44. Just came back from lunch. Lots of cumulus popping up, mostly low, but with a few
    exhibiting a bit of vertical growth.

    It’s 1:35 PM and the radar remains devoid of echos. I should think that something
    should pop soon, IF it is going to at all.

    Also, wondering IF SPC issues a STW. Based on SAK’s comments, probably not.
    But then again, often times within the slight risk area, they do issue a watch so
    I guess we will wait and see.

      1. Yes, I am aware of that. It might as well be in Timbuktu as far as I am concerned. Northern Maine, is a totally and completely different country.

        I Mean a watch for our area in SNE. 😀

  46. One severe thunderstorm watch in far northern Maine.
    Marginal risk still up for tomorrow.

  50. YET AGAIN, the HRRR is showing convection WAY early. The 17Z run has the display lit up at 18Z which was 13 minutes ago and there is NOTHING of course.

    Let’s hope it is just firing a tad early and it comes around. We shall see.

    1. It continues to show time and time again that it is not a good model for developing convection, yet you continue to check it.

      Likewise, SPC continues to show time and time again that they think forecasting thunderstorms in New England is the same as forecasting them in Oklahoma, yet everyone on here seems to treat their forecasts as gospel.

      See my point(s)?

      1. Yes, I get it. Doesn’t mean I won’t check it and I don’t think
        the SPC is Gospel at all. I don’t think NWS is gospel either. You can ask TK on that one.

        Next model runs are out after 4PM sometime. Other than radar (which btw is the best means), I am compelled to look at something. Since I do not have access to RPM, I look at HRRR
        and RAP. 😀

      2. SPC struggles mightily in this part of the country on a routine basis. The HRRR can do some things well, but knowing what it sucks at goes a long way into using it as a tool when applicable. 🙂

  52. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Severe weather threat appears to be diminishing later today. Ingredients struggling to come together. Still watching though

  53. Tweet from Eric Fisher
    In fact, looking at current trends, tomorrow may see more widespread storms than today. Especially NW of Boston

  54. For today anyway, the RAP is performing equally poorly as the HRRR.

    Ghost convection. 😀 😀 😀

    1. That’s why we have meteorologists like SAK and myself to analyze stuff and toss it in the proverbial garbage can. 😉

      1. Yup. I am not expert enough to do that, however, when a model is forecasting convection and a run and in real time there is nothing on the radar, then it doesn’t take a genius to conclude that, hey something is wrong and the model run was USELESS!

        And that PISSES ME OFF to no end!!!!

        Will the upgrade coming soon address some of this ghost convection where is sees cumulus clouds as precipitation?
        I sure hope the hell it does.

        1. Posted a notice about it the other day. I’m not sure what the results will be, but we’ll find out… 🙂

          1. Yes, I read that notice and I “thought” I saw some wording about improving the convection algorithms. Let us hope so.

            1. I really think it’s a step by step process. SAK was right when he talked about using many of the same things we’ve always used.

              It’s ok to rely somewhat on the newer stuff but only if you know its limitations. These days there is too much reliance on what a computer chugs out in the assumption there is some magical way to simulate exactly what will happen, when it reality the simulation is what MAY happen.

              Pure meteorology is the best approach every time. We’ll mess up, but we’ll learn something every time we do.

  55. From NWS

    There remains below average confidence on convection for later
    this afternoon and evening. Looks like enough instability to
    initiate convection after about 3 or 4 PM in the western zones.
    Vertical wind shear is marginal and still think convection is
    most likely to take the form of individual pulse cells or small
    clusters, although some guidance hinted at the possibility of a
    mini-MCS trying to form near NW CT and SW MA. Not really buying
    into the mini-MCS solution at this point but does look like SW MA
    and CT may be a somewhat more favored region for scattered
    thunderstorms mid to late afternoon and then possibly shifting to
    RI and SE MA during the evening. Confidence is quite low how this
    might evolve. There are signals of drier air attempting to work
    its way into northern MA and have lowered POPs some in that region
    but not confidence enough to go below chance.

    2. I’m kind of surprised they are just saying that now. See my blog entry above.

      1. I understand. You and SAK knew. I think it took NWS
        way too long to catch on.

        From your post:

        I don’t think overall coverage will end up being too widespread, so for all the threat that exists, there are likely to be many areas with minimal or no impact from storms.

    1. Still nothing showing in all of Ma and Ct on the radar.

      One cell showing on the Boston Nexard, but it is still in far Eastern NY, getting ready to cross into the Berkshires.

      Perhaps your clouds will pop a call. I wouldn’t count on it.

      I was hoping NOT to water the lawn this evening. Ha fat chance of that.

  57. Wow, even hotter today than I expected. 98 at BDL as of 3PM with a heat index of 101. Wonder if we can crack 100!? Record for this day is 103 set in 2011 – not going make that.

    1. I see a 101 very near Hartford. Not sure of the station. I checked
      it is Manchester Mesonet. Don’t know how accurate it is.

  58. With all of the warnings about the HRRR, it has the Maximum CAPE
    for the entire day showing in Boston at 2Z tonight. 10 PM. Unusual.

    Again, I do not know how accurate that is.

    And so what, if there is not the proper lift, what the bleep good does it do?

          1. Assume that model is right and we have that much cape, is it possible to get storms forming overnight that can be severe?

  59. 18Z NAM is out far enough for today.

    Both regular and 4KM NAM insist on convection starting about now, but
    peaking around 23Z to 0Z. Most of it South of the MA/CT border.

    Both models show ZERO precip for Boston.

    1. and a 102 for AR651 41.76 / -72.56 @ 180 ft
      Name: N1PRS-9 Manchester
      Updated: 22 Jul 4:15 pm
      Mesonet: APRSWXNET/CWOP

  61. 90 with 72 DP on Humarock Wunder. Wind fairly sustained in low 20s/high teens… Gusting to 30. Small craft advisory

    1. Just arrived Scituate Harbor from Salem Harbor. The wind is indeed teens to low 20s, which feels great if you are out of the sun.

      Heading for the canal tomorrow morning; hopefully the forecast for a NW breeze verifies. It can be mighty hot when you are sailing with the wind! Hop g the thunderstorms stay away…

  66. 99 at 5PM with a heat index of 104 at Hartford/Brainard! This is about as hot as it gets around here. Where was the heat advisory today?

  67. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    509 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

    MAZ012-222145-
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
    509 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

    …A HEAVY SHOWER ON THE SOUTHERN HAMPDEN AND WORCESTER COUNTY LINES
    MAY DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM…

    AT 506 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
    THUNDERSTORM OVER STURBRIDGE…OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
    WORCESTER…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

    PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
    STORM IF IT STRENGTHENS.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    WEBSTER…SOUTHBRIDGE…AUBURN…NORTHBRIDGE…OXFORD…MILLBURY…
    CHARLTON…DUDLEY…THOMPSON…STURBRIDGE…SUTTON…DOUGLAS…
    HOLLAND AND EAST BROOKFIELD.

  68. I don’t know if it matters to this atmospheric setup, but I think there’s a boundary layer front that has slowly set up from the south shore to Providence and into southernmost CT.

    South and east of this line, the surface winds are more SW and the dewpoints are near or just over 70F.

    North and northwest of this line, the surface winds are more W, the dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s and it’s generally 5 to 7F hotter.

    This is probably a common occurrence in hot weather, but I just wonder if it effects anything with respect to the chance for isolated storms ?????

  69. Heat today was not unbearable, given the dew point. However, the breezes in the past few days have been far from refreshing. In fact, they seem to reinforce the fact that it’s hot out. The wind sort of felt like a machine blowing hot air (eg, back of an air-conditioner), dust, pollen, and urban debris around.

    Looking at the weather map there is a cooler air mass to our north and west, but a tad too far (eg, ~700 miles northwest of Boston daytime highs in the 60s) to have any impact even when we get a northwesterly flow.

  70. The cap-breaker in southwestern MA is reflective of the isolated activity that was expected late today and just about where it was most likely to take place as well.

    The few tiny but locally heavy yet short-duration showers further east have popped along a boundary between more humid air to the south and the drier air that was forecast to invade areas to the north.

    A little more unstable air arrives west to east this evening so isolated activity can pop anywhere through about midnight. Most areas will not see anything, however.

  71. The severe-warned cell approaching Springfield dissipated about as fast as I’ve ever seen a storm dissipate.

  73. Raining here in Wrentham; getting a hit from one of the mini-cells that have popped up. No thunder. Looks like a few more little ones lined up heading in my general direction, we’ll see how it goes. Still the one severe storm further west. As TK said, the “bottom half” of that storm approaching Springfield folded extremely fast, but the “top half” is holding strong. Activity seems to be popping fairly quickly out that way now.

    1. In fact, all of a sudden, radar has lit up out to the west. We’ll see if this is quick pulsing activity or if it has some legs to run on.

  75. Sort of thought this was the case, but just now seeing the confirmation than there’s a glitch with the Taunton radar that is significantly inflating dbz returns. Was wondering why the ground clutter was so robust today.

    1. I looked and called daughter in Sutton as that was just about it. She didn’t answer so I looked again and out of the blue a warnjng box with the cell splitting. In minutes.

      Interesting clouds to our north …can you see them up your way Dave? Also some interesting clouds to the west

  77. More popping. Looks like they want to orient into a broken line.

    Perhaps there is hope for Boston yet. I need to get out and back before they can arrive.

  78. Three distinct “mini-cells” so far passing directly overhead of me. All three producing a combined rainfall total of a whopping 0.05″.

    1. I believe they are from the larger cell that went south of Sutton earlier. Any T&L with them?

      1. Nope. I think you’d have to head towards Worcester to find that, looks like a decent cell over the city.

  79. Watching the clouds build to the south from my deck in Sterling with thunder in the distance.

      1. Thanks Vicki. It sounds like you are having a great time down in Humarock. My best friends family has a house down there. I spent many summers down there as a kid as well. Fond memories.

  80. That humidity boundary just lifted north of Boston. Wind went more SW, dewpoint up to 68F.

    Some tall cumulus on our very western horizon.

  83. The storm heading for the south side of Boston had shown some signs of rotation, that has weakened but velocities indicate a damaging wind threat.

  84. West Newton went from 0 mph wind to gusty 10-20 in the last 15 minutes. The wind speeds are from the internal gafe of an old sailor and are increasing as I type. Clouds flying over us from the west.

    1. Same here, we just had another heavy shower but the main storm is well north of me. But this event definitely wins the “ominous sky” award of the summer.

  90. Strange mix of thunderheads south of pike, sun above and grey/dark to the north while gusts really increase. “Love is Kinda Spooky with a Spooky li’l girl….”

  91. Home. All bundles put away. Sitting at my computer with a nice cold bottle
    of Poland Spring water. Ahhh…

    Mean one on my door step. I can’t hear thunder yet.

    1. Projected to hit us. Yeah! Let’s see how it misses. Split in 2 probably. 😀
      1 will sail to the North and 1 to the South.

  97. I am retreating inside for dinner. I am taking my instruments (eyes, ears and nose) inside for now. Still gusty but sky above is clear. 😉

    1. We see A good amount of cloud to cloud but that may be from framingham. And of course it is framingham…..I’m not there 🙁

      1. Lol. Lightning is not as frequent near .frmaingham now but becoming more frequent in southwest suburbs in between 95 and 24 inside of 495.

  101. Soooo is it true if you hear thunder you can be struck? We cannot hear thunder so am assuming we are ok outside ????

    1. FWIW IMHO- The rule that thunder / lightning can be timed by the seconds they are apart has always worked for me. I have watched it work across miles of Hingham Bay.

  102. Oh no, it looks like it “may” just slide to the South.
    Nice out flow breeze is all I’m going to get out of this.
    Still NO thunder!

  104. Looking at some of the damage photos and thinking back to the radar scans, it seems very possible a tornado briefly touched down in Westboro. Eric Fisher has posted a couple tweets about it.

    1. Looks more like a downburst than a tornado, especially if you look at what the radar was showing at the same. Joe DelliCaprini of NWS said that same thing on Twitter.

  105. Cell really getting going to our northwest…over Attleboro now and moving into Taunton.
    Time to batten down the hatches!

  106. Nasty storm about to hit the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound…..and I’m in Nashua for the evening.

    The Talking Heads said it best: “Same as it ever was……”

  107. Well that’s all she wrote. We got maybe .00000000001 inch. LMAO!

    Well maybe .01 is more like it. Not much. Just enough to wet the pavement.

    1. Some pretty intense lightning just south of me here in Hingham….some thunder and a little light rain right now

  109. Tough to tell because of the close proximity to the radar, but another very curious velocity signature just moved through or a bit east of the Mansfield area. Sure looked like some briefly well defined rotation.

  110. IF I am not mistaken, the cell in RI by the Scituate Resevoir “looks” like it has
    a bit of rotation.

    Thoughts?

  112. Not sure if I posted already about this…

    Taunton’s radar is making everything look stronger than it is, by 10dbz. Radar error.

  116. Another swing and a miss for Boston. Storms to our west, north, and south, but virtually nothing in town. “Water dissolving, water removing … same as it ever was.” “Same old story, same old song and dance, my friends.”

        1. Exactly. We didn’t hear thunder until about 10 minutes ago. It just wasn’t close enough. Now we are hearing it

  118. You’re right, TK…One very bright lightning and loud thunder here in Taunton and the cell moved onto the south and east. Rain is done.

  120. I just left a friend’s in Pembroke and had to drive to Plymouth (yes Vicki and Tom, I got called back into work). The lightening was crazy for the whole drive. I am hearing rain on the roof of my building now.

  121. So most of Humarock is in warned area except the very north tip where we are. Figure that one out

  123. The build up was awesome. Perfect last night light show. I got to sit on deck and watch with grandaughter who was as excited as nana. The storm was a dud but then youger granddaughter is not crazy about the thunder so it was a win win

  124. Stars are now out overhead. 0.06″ in the rain gauge. A few trees and wires down in East Taunton as per the scanner.

    And as things fell apart
    Nobody paid much attention
    you got it, you got it

  126. FYI, Westborough was absolutely hammered by the storm. Trees down in a wide area of Town. Listening to the scanner and they sure have a lot of clean-up to do. Parts of Southborough got nailed as well. Saw pictures of 7 utility poles snapped or in the water on the Boston Road (Route 30) causeway.

  128. Nice storm just to the south and east of Providence. Big light show in the southern sky here in North Attleboro.

  129. Looks like the storm that moved across the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound did some damage to just to west, in parts of Easton and Stoughton, not from from the Brockton line. That is very close to where my father lives (and where I lived for the 1st 25 years of my life). I’ll have to check in with him in the morning to see if he had any interesting weather.

  130. Yet again the northshore misses out. All storms go north if us towards the merrimack valley or south. I give up.
    Sak or tk what do you guys think about tomorrow’s threat. I know TK said that it will mostly be isolated in mature but the National Weather Service seems to think there will be a greater chance of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. is tomorrow’s threat Moore dangerous than today’s threat or more widespread?

  131. Since I’m up to my forecasts for Boston and the Merrimack Valley, I was just taking a good look at what to expect today. I think it’s going to be spotty stuff again for much of the area, with the best chance for activity is going to be from the Berkshires and Worcester County into the Monadnocks and the Lakes Region. South and east of there, I don’t think we’re going to see much activity again.

    Also, don’t be surprised if Monday is quite toasty (and humid) once again. I’m going above the MOS numbers in my forecasts.

  134. Since that 4 day July cloudy, “cool” spell, 6 of the last 10 days have been 90F or higher. This has included readings of 95F, 96F and 98F.

    The next 10 look to be warm or hot and I get the sense from the 00z EURO and GFS that the pattern, after easing towards zonal flow in the medium range, transitions back to the central US ridge around day 10 that got all the hot weather started here ten days ago.

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