Saturday Forecast

168 Comments

9:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)…
Heat remains, humidity comes down a bit, but a disturbance still brings the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, especially to southern NH, northern MA, and eastern MA, later in the day today. High pressure dominates with dry and very warm weather on Sunday. Heat/humidity comes back full force Monday but a cold front approaching will bring the risk of showers/thunderstorms again later in the day. Humidity lowers but heat hangs around Tuesday-Wednesday as high pressure moves in.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly southern NH as well as northern and eastern MA mid to late afternoon ending early evening. Any storms that form could be strong. Highs 80-87 Cape Cod and Islands, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-77, warmest urban areas. Wind light NW.
SUNDAY: Sunny morning and midday. Increasing clouds later. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod and Islands, 86-92 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable late.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 65-75, warmest urban areas. Highs 84-91 South Coast, 92-98 elsewhere.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 65-75, warmest urban areas. Highs 80-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 62-72, warmest urban areas. Highs 80-90, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28-AUGUST 1)…
Humidity returns as does the risk of showers/thunderstorms late July 28 and July 29. Lower humidity over the weekend of July 30-31 with fair weather. Similar weather August 1. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)…
A fairly humid and warm period with a few episodes of showers/thunderstorms.

168 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    SPC update is in. Same as before.

    …ERN NY/NEW ENGLAND…
    WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD TO SEWD ACROSS
    OUTLOOK AREA MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN…OFFERING SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND
    WITH ISOLATED SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC
    HEATING AND DCVA/COOLING ALOFT PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
    DESTABILIZE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
    FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SMALL
    GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL WLY COMPONENT OF NEAR-SFC WINDS…HOWEVER MLCINH
    WILL BE WEAK AS WELL. SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F ARE
    FCST…DEPENDING BOTH ON LOCAL MIXING EFFECTS…ELEVATION AND GEN
    INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SWD EXTENT. THIS WILL SUPPORT PEAK
    PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE…ATOP REASONABLY
    WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. STG MID/UPPER WINDS ARE EXPECTED…
    THOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF
    DEEP-LAYER FLOW. STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS MAY TRANSPORT ENOUGH HIGHER
    MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT TO SFC FOR DAMAGING GUSTS..ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
    HELP FROM SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION.

  6. Thanks TK. Probably a pretty quiet day in store. The 12z run of the HRRR is basically pitching a shutout for our area. I thought it did quite well yesterday despite taking some heat here… only thing it was off on was timing, but otherwise its more robust solution played out nicely. If you know how to use it, it will rarely lead you astray.

    1. That is similar to what I had said. It does OK once convection is underway. It just has a tendency to start everything up far too early.

      Anyway, upgrade coming August 23 then we’ll see.

    1. Lowering humidity, WNW wind, sun for a while, existing dryness, wonder if it gets to 95F or 96F ?????

  8. Minor tweak. I was half asleep when I wrote the original post and forgot to word Sunday the way I wanted to, which reflects an increase in cloudiness later in the day ahead of a warm front (actually a muggy front if you want to think of it that way). 😉

    1. Of couse not. Don’t anything on radar just yet. My boston noaa forecast calls for severe storms. Go figure.

      1. That’s because it pulls the “most important words”. There is a threat of severe storms today, but not widespread. This is the problem with such products. No added value!

    1. 89 temp, 62 dew point at Logan and not much different elsewhere around the region. Hot but for sure not stifling in terms of humidity.

    2. 91F / 59F dewpoint at 11am. A more gusty west wind.

      I see some cumulus developing in the northern third of the sky. They are moving NW to SE.

  11. The NAM looks reasonably interesting for Monday, as well as the high res version. The SPC has us in a marginal risk that day. Best chances may be to our west though. Some parts of our area should challenge 100 that day.

    1. I have a feeling about Monday…

      1) Big storm area #1 stays mostly north in VT/NH due to better support there.
      2) Big storm area #2 passes southwest of the Boston area driven by high dew point and outflow boundaries.

      I realize it’s a bit early to go into any more detail than this, but this is an initial feeling I get.

  12. Signs the 850 mb temps have leveled off or are starting to cool a bit :

    Mt washington’s temp has been holding steady all morning and actually just fell 1F last hour.

  14. Thanks, TK

    We are 24.8% below normal in precipitation since January 1 of this year. (At Logan)
    We are 21.8% behind since January 1, 2015.

    “I dream of rain. I dream of gardens in the desert sand.” ~ Sting, “Desert Rose”

  16. Barry said something very interesting on air during one of his newscasts and that is due to lowering dew points this afternoon, the chances for storms are greater. I would think the opposite if anything.

    Also, Barry says much cooler next weekend with temps upper 70s – low 80s! 😀

    1. I don’t agree with the lower dew points equating to a better chance of storms. I’m going to check into the reasoning if that is what he said.

      I’m also not sold on the “cooler” next weekend yet, either. At 7 and 8 days out, don’t hang your hat on it.

  17. How are we suppose to get severe storms if the dew points continue to drop? My town dropped from 69 to 53. I guess we can get severe storms with low DP?

  18. Thanks TK

    Arrived home about an hour ago and am mostly unpacked. 88 in Sutton with 58 DP and nice breeze. Front lawn despite irrigation system is fried. Back not as bad.

    Capt fantastic those are some high percentages. Thanks for sharing them

  19. Boston harbor buoy water temp : 73.2F. …. Light SE wind out there and the dewpoint of the air above the ocean is 70F.

    In the last hour, we’ve had a fairly light wind and I think we are actually seeing a seabreeze at the moment.

    We have a mix of sun and cumulus clouds.

  22. Taunton’s radar is not fixed. They need a part that had to be ordered (not kidding). It will be operational but continue to run 10dbz too high for any activity that pops up today.

  23. I’m at Carolina Beach today just south of Wilmington, NC. Is 88 with a slight sea breeze. Warmer in Boston. But the dew point here is north of 70. But, beautiful beach day here.

  24. NWS still promoting storms for later today:

    Main concern for this afternoon is the potential for another
    round of strong to possibly severe t-storms as rather potent
    shortwave moves into New Eng later today. Very good mid level
    cooling with this shortwave as 500 mb temps drop to -12 to -14C
    by evening which is impressive with temps into the 90s. Mid level
    lapse rates expected to increase to around 6.5 C/km associated
    with the cooling temps aloft which will allow MLCAPES to increase
    to around 1000 J/kg. The instability will be tempered by the
    decreasing dewpoints this afternoon so do not expect MLCAPES to
    get much higher. Hi-res guidance suggesting showers and t-storms
    will develop in northern New Eng and spill south into the region
    after 3 pm with focus across northern and eastern MA where core
    of cold pool moves.

    1. Latest from SPC

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif?1469295606376

      …ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND…
      CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER SRN QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT
      WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEW
      ENGLAND. DOWNSTREAM CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO INCREASING FROM PARTS
      OF ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS DIABATIC HEATING
      CONTINUES/STEEPENS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
      WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A
      THREAT FOR MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

  25. Thankyou, TK.

    Drought’s `casualties’ include newly sodded grass on the Boston Common. Not sure why they put down very expensive sod on the Common in the first place. Now, it’s practically all dead. Along the banks of the Charles they’ve also been planting trees in recent weeks. Needless to say, some will not survive. I saw them watering the poor trees at noon! That’s insanity on a day like today. A waste of water. Water early in the morning or early evening, not during near-peak sun hours on a hot day.

  27. Both the HRRR and the RAP, now showing convective activity for Boston around 21-22Z
    or so. Let us hope so. We shall see.

        1. Some golf course. It’s my wife’s cousin, so that was enough info for me 🙂 🙂 🙂 sounds like the reception is inside.

        2. I don’t mean to say this with ego ….

          My wife’s family knows I’m into the weather and I just have this image of being seated outside and seeing something in the sky that makes me get up and head indoors. I would hope half the family doesn’t follow me 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

          Maybe that move that part indoors too if it looks questionable.

      2. I have a feeling that seabreeze boundary, whether it enhances or diminishes the convection …. One way or another is going to effect this convection.

        Last night, the boundary was more east west oriented and I thought it enhanced things a bit. Today’s is oriented more north south.

  32. Taunton’s 2pm update of its discussion keyed in on how hot Monday seems to be trending towards.

        1. I’d missed that. Went back to look and… YES. You did. 😛

          At 12:23AM. 🙂

          1. Here’s the other part of that post, which also seems to be working out so far:

            “I think it’s going to be spotty stuff again for much of the area, with the best chance for activity is going to be from the Berkshires and Worcester County into the Monadnocks and the Lakes Region. South and east of there, I don’t think we’re going to see much activity again.”

  33. On second thought, the HRRR is not doing a whole lot better with initiation than it did yesterday. It still has big cells shown 2 hours from initiation and there is nothing to show for it in that area of NY. Use with caution.

    And REMINDER that Taunton’s radar continues to run “too hot” at +10DBZ above reality.

      1. Might be an interesting late afternoon/early evening temps at Logan. It’s 83F now, but still low to mid 90s inland.

  35. TK – Let me know when you figure out Barry’s thinking regarding storms for later today. I agree with you that lower dew points don’t make sense, but then I am not a met, of course. As for next weekend, I hope he is right, but I agree that 7-8 days out a lot can certainly happen…or not. Barry sounded quite confident, though.

    Thanks in advance TK! 🙂

  36. It was 93.2 here a moment ago. Now 92.8
    The clouds sprung loose a few rain drops about 20 minutes ago. Nothing now.

  38. Radar lighting up in northern new England.
    I am looking ahead to Monday since this activity won’t reach me.

  40. cumulus here previously had some growth, now cumulus that are left are flat.

    Doesn’t look like we are destined for any convection, unless it erupts later.

  42. convection in upstate is diving due SE. Not sure what that means for us later, IF anything at all.

  43. 15 mph sea breeze at Logan isn’t doing a thing here in JP some 5 or 6 miles away.
    It’s up to 94.3 here.

  45. I do not get this. It is 82 at the airport with East wind at 10.

    It is 94.6 here with a stiff West wind at about 15-20 mph.
    How does Logan have a sea Breeze???????

    2. We had a sea breeze several days at Humarock but the second we went over the bridge to land it turned to land breeze

  46. That is quite a batch of storms coming down from the north. Do you think they will hold together for a while?

    1. I’m wondering the same thing.

      On the boat in Onset Harbor having sailed from Scituate this morning. It was and still is hot.

  48. If TK is at Revere Beach now, he’s getting clobbered. According to Panela Gardner the storm is right over that area. Hope he and the sandcastles will be ok. Stay safe TK!

  49. look at that line, wow hoping the hail with those storms do not cause to much damage, especially if they move far enough south to hit me

  52. Big severe storm developed right over Woburn and moved just north of Boston. Couple more showers south of the city as well as in CT. Line to the north looks to be weakening and should continue to do so.

  54. A shower as the sun is out here in Dorchester. My grandmother used to say that the devil is beating his wife when this occurs. 😉

  55. Thunder and lightning in Boston, but only one clap and very little rain. It’s like squeezing out a dry lemon the last few times it’s `rained’ in Boston.

  57. Looking at the radar it appears there strong thunderstorms just north and just south of Boston. As they approached the city from the northwest the storm split into two, leaving Boston virtually unscathed … again. It’s like there’s a thunderstorm shield.

  60. Getting a report from a storm spotter.
    SPOTTER REPORTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE IN
    SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE

    This goes with the severe thunderstorm warning in effect for Essex northeastern Worcester and Northern Middlesex counties.

  61. Severe t-storm warning just issued Boston to Worcester and points north, not so much for the storms themselves but the gust front riding well out ahead of them.

    * AT 704 PM EDT…A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS DROPPING
    SOUTH FROM FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER, DAMAGING WIND
    GUSTS WERE OCCURRING OUT OF AHEAD THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS.

    1. Storms look to be gusting out and gust front maybe forming.
      Saw a report of 30,000 without power in New Hampshire where these storms were. From the spotter statement they are meeting severe criteria.

  62. NWS Taunton extends severe thunderstorm warning to Boston now. They feel this line of storms will maintain severe criteria.

  63. Wow. Amazing line. I do not recall a “gust front” being discussed recently.

    Does that weaken as it advances or should I think about battening down the hatches here? In Sutton that is

    2. It’ll “gust out” eventually, but it should survive to at least the CT/RI border. We should see a brief period of gusty winds within a half hour or so.

  64. Vicki I don’t if this is your area.
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
    NORTHERN HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
    NORTHWESTERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…
    FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…

    * UNTIL 815 PM EDT

    * AT 713 PM EDT…A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF
    DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO MUCH OF WESTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL OUT AHEAD OF
    THE THUNDERSTORMS.

    HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

    SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

    IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    WORCESTER…CHICOPEE…WESTFIELD…HOLYOKE…AMHERST…
    NORTHAMPTON…GREENFIELD…ORANGE…DEERFIELD…LUDLOW…
    SOUTH HADLEY…HOLDEN…AUBURN…EASTHAMPTON…BELCHERTOWN…
    PALMER…MONROE…SPENCER…ATHOL AND LEICESTER

    1. JJ it was so kind of you to post that. It is west of me from what I can tell. I am almost directly south of Worcester and just about on border of Ma Ct ri

  65. I know I did this couple years back when a similar situation happened but if you have any loose objects or deck furniture and your ahead of these storms you might want to take them in.

  70. Looks like these storms are over achieving in coverage. I think most expected spotty to scattered coverage but that line moving in is solid. Most of eastern mass should feel some effects.

  71. I am looking at some pictures on twitter Malden and Winchester with trees down.
    SPC yesterday did have a marginal risk up for MA with the exception of south shore for today.

  74. The last half hour on the Newton-Weston line at the Pike has been wacko. Temp dropped from 91 to 78 and wind went nutty. Big boughs of trees down and all sorts of sky from thunderheads to grey to sunshine. Wind just keeps swirling. Gusty as all get out.
    I was at the golf course and thought I might end up like the minister in Caddy Shack in the thunder and lightning 🙂
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r95a3p8Os-w

  80. Broken record (LP) in Boston. A few drops of rain that immediately evaporate. Storms have been approaching from the north and west and every time dissipate when they get within 10-15 miles of the city. It’s incredible, given the severity of the storms this evening. You’d think that a storm could hold it together to give us at least a bit of rain. Alas.

  82. Vicki, west of you there appears to be a powerful cluster of storms. My guess is that holds together to impact parts of central Massachusetts and perhaps metro west.

    1. Thanks Joshua. Temp here just dropped to 78 from 88. Very quiet at the moment. Almost eerily so

  83. Got about 10 minutes of strong wind gusts in Clinton around 7PM. Now at 8PM getting sprinkles. No real rain, but did get a nice big rainbow out of it.

    Drought is really causing problems now for fire service. Lots of big brush fires popping up all over the place.

    1. Took three days to get fire out in framingham near where I lived. They had to tank in water from all over as it was on Nobscot Mtn

  84. Taunton just issuing Special Weather Statement now for brief wind gusts to 45mph for areas south of where the severe thunderstorm warnings were.

  85. Three out of the last six days with fairly widespread storm damage in New England. Definitely an indicator that we’ve moved into a more active pattern, which will continue through next week. Need the rain but also need the storms to tune it down a bit! Best wishes to those with damage, as well as those who will be working hard tonight and probably well into tomorrow to get the lights back on for many tens of thousands.

  86. Did anyone see the Sox game at Fenway when the gust front came through? The infield and warning track dirt was blowing all over the place. I am sure it will be on SportsCenter and local sports highlights.

  88. Warnings are gone after a wild couple hours for parts of the area.
    I have been a spectator to these thunderstorms this week.
    Monday looks like the next thunderstorm threat. Will see how that pans out. Currently SPC has all of New England in a marginal risk. As we saw today a marginal risk does not mean you cant get severe weather as the slight risk was issued for parts of Northern Vermont and New Hampshire.

  89. Jerry Remy got hurt in the broadcast booth in the first inning. I am not sure if it was weather-related.

    1. Apparently he was hit in the head by a monitor from the wind. They checked him out and he was ok, but sent him home.

  90. The cluster of thunderstorms over Massachusetts Bay is really impressive. Practically half the size of Rhode Island.

  91. Vicki I had my fun back in February of all months with gusty winds and lights that flickered with that line of night time storms that went through.

  92. Just got back from a walk and several big limbs down from the gust front. That was pretty intense around 750-800.

      1. Kept a close eye on the radar and the gust front came through just as we started. Pretty neat but was also damaging to some too.

  93. 2:22AM and I’m finally home from a very long day and night. It was awesome from a personal standpoint. Saw a really cool storm at Revere Beach, was in a safe place (by plan as I knew this was possible), got to enjoy Kelly’s, saw some great sand sculptures (which do just fine in heavy rain and small hail), and enjoyed a very long lightning show offshore.

    I’ll get into more detail in the morning when I post the new update. 🙂

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