Monday Forecast

109 Comments

7:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)…
High pressure hangs on then slips to the southeast of New England today with fair weather. Clouds advance tonight and rain showers follow for Tuesday as a cold front moves in. This front will be parented by a low pressure area over the Great Lakes that won’t move much to the east, so the front will run out of steam as it comes through then hang up just off to the southeast. The parent low is likely to sink southward into the Ohio Valley during midweek and some of its energy will transfer to a new low developing on the front. This system should keep most of its rain offshore but may through more cloudiness across the region Wednesday. For the Thursday-Friday period, there is still some conflicting information regarding how far east the Ohio Valley low gets, and this has significant implications on the weather in southern New England, with obviously a further eastward position bringing a greater chance of wetter weather, and if high pressure is strong enough to keep this system at bay, we’d see a lesser rain risk but possibly a persistent easterly wind. This period of uncertainty is not really much of a surprise, as this is a common occurrence fueled by model inconsistency when we enter a transitional period in the weather pattern, that is, a changing regime. For now, there are no major changes to the forecast, but confidence beyond Tuesday remains lower than average.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 64-72. Wind calm morning, light S afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clouding over west to east. Rain showers arriving west to east toward dawn. Lows 51-60, coolest over interior valleys. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 62-70. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Highs 66-74.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 50-58. Highs 62-70.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-60. Highs 64-72.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
A low pressure trough will likely be located southwest of New England while a high pressure ridge tries to build over New England and nearby eastern Canada, though the low may finally push in somewhere around October 4-5 with a better chance of rain again. This is a low confidence forecast in need of much future fine-tuning.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
A potential tropical system to the south may at least send some of its moisture northward toward or into the region early in the period with a rain risk. The trend should be for drier and initially cooler than eventually milder weather for mid through late period. Confidence remains low on this portion of the forecast as well.

109 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK. Frost on the pumpkin here this am. Well on the windshields (which my SIL scraped) and spotty on grass. Was 33.3 when I looked at 7:30. Best part was glass of water was on table by open window and it tasted as if it had been freezer.

    Which reminds me. JPD, how is your water temp?

    1. Cooler, thanks

      I think it was simply due to the warmer water in Quabbin this Summer.
      It is most definitely cooling off now. 😀

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Dropped to 40 at my house. I know inland areas were considerably lower.
    But it was cold enough for the heat to come on and we have the thermostat
    set really low, like about 62 or so.

    Still ventured out without a coat or sweater. NICE!!!

    Re: Invest-97L

    Both the GFS and the CMC take it well out to sea, however, the Euro
    looks interesting.

    Here is the Euro postion at 240 hours:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092600/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    500 mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092600/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

    To me, that looks ominous with the distinct possibility of that thing coming up here.

    Let me check the 200 and 300 mb charts. Sorry, only have the 300mb

    http://imgur.com/a/74Kmr

      1. Thanks ACE. Hadn’t even thought of going there just yet.

        It’s certainly a watcher. It’s not a question of there being a system, it’s a question of the alignment of troughs and ridges as
        it approaches the US. Looks like almost anything is still
        in play.

        Over 2 days, the GFS has taken it to the big bend it Fl, to Mexico South of Texas, up to New England and finally Out to sea.

        Very wide range of solutions over a short period of time.

        Models obviously struggling with upper air alignments down the road.

        What scares me the most, is the Euro depiction, which certainly allows for a digging trough to “possibly” bring a tropical
        entity up the coast. Will it happen? Who knows.

        This one is a watcher for sure. A few days ago, I didn’t think
        it even had a remote chance of coming up here.

        Would be nice if at least remnants got up here to relieve the
        drought situation.

        We need TK and SAK to perform their RAIN DANCE ritual. 😀

  5. Starting to feel like the tropics will have more of an affect on us than Canada through october?? Drawing warm temps? while great lakes rockies and plains get into early winter??

  6. re: Invest-97L

    The hurricane models are now in play.

    As per usual, the HWRF has it the most intense at 126 hours from run:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016092606/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_97L_43.png

    That’s 934 mb, a pretty intense hurricane

    While the GFDL is a wimpy little cousin

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2016092606/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_97L_22.png

    How about that for model divergence. IF the two (2) hurricane models can’t even
    be close, what does that tell us?????

      1. I know it’s a long way off, but my gut says do NOT ignore
        the Euro on this.

        I can’t wait to see the 12Z solutions. 😀

        1. Oh, sorry, not enough coffee yet.

          You mean a blend of the 2 hurricane models.

          Perhaps, but like my comment about the Euro,
          my gut says do not ignore the HWRF on this baby.

          I think the GFDL is out to lunch.

          We shall see.

    2. One saving grace with all those tracks is it has to cross mountainous Hispaniola then the interaction with the front may weaken it some too.

      1. Possibly, then, even so, it would encounter plenty
        of warm water, so it could go right back to what it was.

        I’d be happy if it made it up here as a transitioning
        TS or even a depression as long as it delivers some much
        needed rain.

        At this point we have a chance. How much of a chance? Who
        knows, but at least it’s on the table.

        Time will tell.

  8. Well, I was looking forward to this time of year as a nice slow transition to cooler weather. But, I should have known we’d go from hot right down to cool in a matter of days. Looks like it will stay that way for the forecast period.

  9. Bottomed out at 41.0 here at the Storm HQ World headquarters Compound. A personal Weather station about 2 blocks from my house reached 39.9 this morning. either way, the coldest morning in quite some time.

    as for our new fried 97L. While the GFS is more OTS on the 6z, the Ensemble shows considerable spread, but nearly every member has it off the Eastern Seaboard. While most of them stay offshore, it’s not exactly comfortably offshore, and a few do have a landfall. The ECMWF Ensemble is clustered more in the Gulf (and a few days later), but has some members bring it up the East Coast.

    I did address this potential storm at the end of my Weekly Outlook last night. As is usually the case, you’ll notice that the actual forecasts for around here are pretty similar to TK’s, even with all of the uncertainty. GMTA indeed.

    https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2016/09/26/weekly-outlook-september-26-october-2-2016/

  11. One more word of caution on 97L, from Twitter. A point that many of us tend to forget (I’m guilty of this at times too):

    Michael Ventrice
    @MJVentrice
    A note on the current invest over the Atlantic: Models will have difficult time predicting the intensity/track until tropical development

    2. Yes indeed. I think we are all aware of that. Even so, it is fun speculating
      and watching how the models are handling it.

      On thing for certain on this one, all of the models are depicting this
      system becoming a tropical storm at least. The problem is what happens to it?
      Where does it go and how intense does it get.

      I sure don’t pretend to know, but I enjoy watching how the models are
      handling it.

      With our luck, it will go OTS, but here’s hoping we get some decent rain
      out it.

      Can’t wait to see the 12Z Euro for it’s change of the day.

      1. Remember though, all the models had Hermine developing into a tropical storm at least a week before it actually did. When it finally did, it was nowhere near where the models originally had it.

    1. IF you ever believe Wankum, then there looks to be possibilities this
      week.

      I’m sticking with TK and do not expect much, if anything

    2. Actually it becomes totally closed off and it doesn’t go anywhere.
      Could set the stage for some tropical weather up this way.

      Even if not, GFS shows considerable rain across these parts from
      the Closed off upper low. 😀

      More than an inch anyway, which would be very welcomed.

        2. It should be noted that the CMC has more than the GFS
          and the EURO has even more still, although it is delayed a bit.

    1. Yup, I was just about to post that.

      I wonder what the ensemble members will show. Won’t have that for a while
      yet.

  21. With 97L, there are just so many possibilities right now, it’s impossible to know anything beyond 3-4 days out. By that time, we should have a tropical depression or tropical storm. The model consensus indicates the potential for a very high impact event, but it’s all a question of where. Too early to tell.

    1. The nature of the beast, isn’t it?

      Even IF we don’t get it, perhaps we could muster that
      finger of tropical rain to get up here? let us hope anyway.

  22. The GFS Enemble mean is for a track up the East Coast before stalling off the Mid-Atlantic for a few days, then drifting out. I think I’ve seen that happen before….

    Several members bring it inland anywhere from North Carolina to Nova Scotia.

      2. And the ensemble mean is available at Tropical Tidbits already, but that does not have the individual members, unless I am
        misreading something. tx

        1. If you go to GEFS, lower dynamics, and click on ensemble mean and spread, you get a version of the individual members, which updates by 1:30 or so for the 12z runs. You don’t actually see each member, but you see all the low centers. Here’s 9 days out, for instance. Each of the little red numbers is a low pressure center (blue numbers are highs). It’s one of my favorite products because it’s so useful for gauging uncertainty.

          http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_37.png

          1. THANK YOU!

            I should have remembered that since I have often used it in the past.

            Wow! I’m losing it!

            It’s tough to be getting OLD!!! 😀 😀

          2. That is very helpful, but I like the full displays
            available at Meteocentre. It just takes them
            too long to post them.

  23. Hr 192 on euro, that 500 mb trof looks like it’s deepening as its making its way through the inter mountain west …….

      1. I also like that there appears there would be a lot of cool, non tropical air along the eastern seaboard that any tropical entity would have to deal with.

      2. Even so, the timing “may” be just right to capture the Tropical
        system and propel it right on up here.

        Jury is still out and deliberating. We shall see.

          1. So far, the Euro offers the most intriguing
            solution. Still loads of time on this one.

            Sure, it could easily pass harmlessly out to sea and in fact that may be the likely scenario, but no one
            can declare that as the final solution at this time.

    1. could enough chilly air be dragged and formed by that set up for the highest of elevations up in northern new england to get some wintery weather??

  27. 12z Euro solution is just a bit different than that of the GFS…..

    Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx · 7m7 minutes ago

    So the new Euro ensemble continues to take #97L into the Gulf and actually the mean makes landfall in the northern Yucatan… #uncertainty

    1. And the operational is quite different from the ensemble mean as well.

      What ever do we get from this system?

      It sure is fascinating just watching it all evolve.

  30. So this thing may very well get pulled due north….is there a chance that the upper level trough and high to the north could pull this thing left towards the coast (like Sandy)? Seeing the potential for that left hook on the 12z GFS (albeit harmlessly over the open waters of the Atlantic) brought back memories.

  31. When we see a bunch of signs of human caused climate change, the debate tonight will not have climate change even mentioned.

    1. We will be lucky if they get past he said she said. The biggest debate is whether to watch. I’m not in anhurrynto buy a new tv and tossing a glass at the screen might result in that happening

        1. Debates do nothing for me. I dont watch any of it. I know who I’m voting for and debates do not change my mind.

  33. I think that storm will stay right out at sea as a nice area of high-pressure sets right on top of us or slightly to the North as well as a front keeping it at bay.

  35. I try to take reading computer weather models with a grain of salt, but does the latest GFS have a hurricane (Matthew?) making landfall near Portland, ME on Sunday, October 9, noonish?

    Am I reading this correctly?

    1. Yes you are, although
      I have no idea if it would still be a tropical system at that time. Certainly sbpwerfull sytem. Stay tuned.

  36. Remember, the models mean almost NOTHING. It’s just simulation starting with initial conditions. There are a lot of errors there.

    I would caution folks this, however: IF a storm is off the East Coast, the target dates to get it to come north and close enough to impact New England are October 6 and 7. Before that, not likely. After that, not likely.

    We’ll go into my reasoning for this later…

    1. That run was eerily similar to Sandy with a potent hurricane heading due north over the Atlantic and then making that last minute left hook into the northeast.

      1. The red flag is the overdevelopment of low pressure southwest of the tropical or post-tropical cyclone. This is likely the reason that this run is out to lunch and the solution won’t look much of anything like this come 00z.

        1. Looks almost like a fujiwhara effect with what it is doing with that second area of low pressure. These model runs may be more entertaining than tonight’s debate.

        1. Highly doubtful. Once we get to October 1, 90 is almost unheard of. We may get into a couple episodes of tropical flow though.

            1. We don’t tend to get consistent anything in fall. We never really have. 🙂 It’s the exception rather than the rule.

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