Sunday Forecast

48 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)…
High pressure centered to the northwest of New England today will slide across the region tonight and then drop to the south on Monday. The upper level pattern will be reconfiguring itself during this period and will begin to present a ridge off the East Coast and trough that tries to close off an upper low to the west of New England by the middle of next week. There are differing solutions on major forecast models as to what will happen with this closed off system. Some guidance takes it eastward giving the chance of rain to southern New England around next Thursday-Friday while other guidance holds it back to the west and never really brings the rain chance in. A case can be made for either scenario or anything in between, and in the interest of consistency for today I’m going to pretty much carry a similar forecast to yesterday, and revisit this “issue” going forward to try to fine tune the outlook. So understand that today’s outlook is up with a little less confidence that what I might consider average confidence for my own forecasting.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-69. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Clear. Frost likely interior areas especially valleys and low spots. Lows 28-34 deeper valleys, 34-40 most interior areas, 40-47 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind calm.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-72. Wind calm morning, light S afternoon.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 52-60. Highs 62-70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-54. Highs 66-74.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 50-58. Highs 62-70.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
Weather systems may not move much during this time with low pressure held to the southwest by a ridge of high pressure centered just east of New England. This would result in mainly fair and mild weather much of the period with a rain risk later in the period as system tried to move eastward somewhat.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
Will keep an eye on the tropics to the south as at least remnant moisture may be involved in a system that arrives from the south and west about the middle of the period, preceded by warm weather and followed by cooler/drier weather. Very low confidence in this portion of the forecast as much can change.

48 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. Suffice to say the formation and progression of the potential cutoff low will have huge implications not only on our weather, but on the track of a potential hurricane in the Caribbean. The 0z ECMWF/GFS are wildly different. It’ll be a matter of when and how much ridging builds into the East around days 7-9.

    1. I just checked on that Tropical.

      Now the GFS has it hit Florida and come up the coast inland, but
      giving us a really nice rain event. The Euro and CMC keep it well East of Florida
      and looks to take it OTS. Still time and needs to be watched.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Vicki, I rechecked that email. Turns out it was still a draft and was never
    sent. I didn’t catch that last night. I must have been interrupted and never
    hit the send button. So sorry about that. Check your mail, as it has definitely
    been sent this time. 😀

    1. I have it. Good thing you told me. It went into my spam folder which is odd because it was in reply to an email I had sent you and that should never trigger spam. Talk about a comedy of errors 🙂

      Thank you very much for the info and the great explanation of steps to set up for Wunder. It sounds very straight forward. I’ll plan to call and order from accurite so I can ask questions then also.

      1. I’ve had many emails that have no reason to go to spam end up there anyway. A mystery of email. 😛

  4. The Sox have clinched at least a Wild Card spot, but they need to win the East.
    10 wins in a row. Great time for that! excellent.

    1. This and the other message initially went into moderation because of a typo in the email address. I fixed that as far as the posts go, but you may want to check your source for the repeated error. Happened yesterday as well. 🙂

      For the record, there is a missing letter.

  7. Some AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. Which one is NOT a part of a hurricane?
    A. Eyewall
    B. Moat
    C. Spiral bands
    D. Flanking lines

    2. What is the dominant factor that triggers the fall foliage colors?
    A. Reduction of daylight
    B. Moisture content
    C. Nutrients
    D. Temperature

    Answers later today.

  8. Basically, the model solutions of the eventual path of any tropical system mean nothing right now. The time to worry about that is once we know of the position and trusted forecast track (NHC) of the system and have a clear handle on the large scale pattern over North America (especially the western Atlantic and eastern USA). This will be several days away from now. The first forecasting issue is what happens with the low pressure trough approaching from the west later the coming week. After that is figured out, we can take the next step.

  9. As of 11AM the temperatures across southern New England range from 52 to 61. This puts them in position to max out in the predicted range above. Coolest daytime we’ve had in a while around here. Very dry air too and a pleasant if not chilly-at-times breeze, especially in the shade.

    So much weather to track during the next couple weeks around here, and ironically through it all we may end up still quite dry. Depends on how all the players behave.

    1. At 240 hours, the GFS and CMC have it in similar positions off the East coast
      of Florida with the CMC about 50-100 miles closer to shore.

      It will be interesting to see if the EURO follows.

  11. Thank you to Hadi’s Redskins for beating the Giants. Now I hope Big Ben and the Steelers beat the Eagles and the Cowboys win tonight against the Bears so were tied with the Giants and Eagles at 2-1.

  12. What a day. 69 with 37 DP. Breeze enough through windows….all of which are open wide…was enough for me to put on a long sleeve tee for a bit. Halloween decorations have been located among the boxes still piled everywhere and are starting to find a place in their new home.

  14. Crazy. If you didn’t just see Dustin score in the 10th, check the highlights. Wow! Papi again getting a clutch hit. MVP.

    1. Wild game…quite a win. 23 strikeouts by Red Sox pitching (11 in a row at one point which was a new major league record. 21 strikeouts came in the first 9 innings but because the game went longer than 9 innings the 21 strikeouts is not a record…

      1. I’m trying to figure if this is the team I’ve been hearing critiqued in here this summer. Even Farrell is up for best.

        1. There’s a little thing I say once in a while and it’s something about never counting them out until they are OUT. It’s a very long season.

          The average fan has very little patience with their team in any sport. I am not an average fan, and I suspect you are not either. 🙂

          1. I’ve seen too many good teams and too many bad teams (in our local sports teams). A few bad years, a few bad months, a few bad weeks….I can wait them all out. Like any fan I may yell and scream at the TV set but when all is said and done it’s only a game and games are meant to be fun 🙂

          2. The sox most always are better to start poorly. When they start strong they tend to fall apart

            And where have I heard don’t count them out 😉

  16. I suspect I have said this before but worth repeating and has nothing to do with weather but is related to another passion of TKs so think I’m ok. If you have Pandora, the Beatles stations is phenomenal. I keep thinking I’ll watch a movie but each time I try to turn music off a better song comes along

  18. The sox may win, but if that idiot Farrell wins manager of the year I will vomit!!

    Aside from that turkey, the team is doing very well and I am quite pleased.

    Joe Kelly was throwing 100 mph gas. Truly awesome!

    And Pedroia should be on dancing with the stars. His play at the plate defies
    logic and cannot be described.

    1. JPD. I went to Wayland today so had lots of sports radio listening time. In the interest of honesty I laughed for about five minute when I heard about Farrell and thinking about what your reaction would be

    1. Yes, all is good. In central NH most of the weekend, then came home and plopped and watched Red Sox and football.

      It was mighty cold last night sleeping in a cabin with no heat. I’m pretty sure it got down into the mid-upper 30s last night.

      A few colorful trees in the area we were in. Lake at camp was about 2 to 3 ft below normal.

      1. Hi Tom..I was hoping you got to have a weekend away. Glad to hear it. Brrrrrr. Oddly, freezing in a sleeping bag in a camp cabin brings back great memories. I’m surprised lake is that far below normal. Yikes.

  20. Arnold Palmer passed away

    I suspect most here remember his name from the time they were very young. He was a gentleman’s gentleman.

        1. I liked his recent commercials with Kevin Neelon on the golf course. I believe the ads were for the drug Zorelto.

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