C-19 Chat Post – February 24 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

A preview of spring today with very mild air over the region, although with a lot of clouds as we await a cold front. This front comes through with little fanfare today other than its wind shift. Tonight, the cold air drains in from Canada and becomes established through Thursday as high pressure builds over eastern Canada. And in classic New England fashion we’ll be dealing with a winter storm by the early hours of Friday, and then throughout the day into early Friday night, as low pressure coming out of the Midwest tracks just south of us, with cold air in place for a largely or completely frozen precipitation event. The wild card and biggest question to answer with this upcoming system is how much warm air will be involved aloft to change the snow to sleet and cut down the total accumulation. This is almost a certainty south of I-90 and especially toward the South Coast, where even some rain may get involved in the system as it makes its closest pass. This will be reflected in the accumulation amounts in the detailed forecast that follows this discussion. The system moves away Friday night, leaving us with a breezy and cold weekend with dry weather Saturday and a snow shower threat Sunday as a reinforcing cold front moves through the region.

TODAY: Cloudy morning. Increasing sun afternoon. A brief rain shower possible late morning to early afternoon. Highs 57-64, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW by late-day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine dimmed by high cloudiness at times. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow, except changing to sleet in some areas mainly south of I-90 and possibly mixing with rain along the South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow during the evening. Expected snow accumulation 1-3 inches Nantucket, 3-5 inches remainder of South Coast, 5-10 inches elsewhere, Clearing overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Temperatures below normal. Watch for 1 or 2 disturbances with precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

The overall pattern continues to look colder than normal with another storm threat potential at some point.

C-19 Chat Post – February 23 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada today through early Wednesday via New York, northwestern New England, and the St. Lawrence Valley. Its warm front will bring some rain showers later today. The most widespread rain shower activity will occur in the warm sector tonight when the wind will become quite gusty as well, and most of Wednesday will be rain-free other than a rain shower chance first thing in the morning and a risk of few more isolated ones along a passing cold front during the afternoon. Before that cold front gets here, we’ll warm nicely, with many areas away from the South Coast reaching or exceeding 60F. Don’t get used to that though, because cold air comes back in that night, and becomes established across the region as high pressure builds across southeastern Canada Thursday. We’ll already be seeing some high cloudiness in the sky Thursday too ahead of our next storm threat – low pressure heading toward the interior Northeast from the Midwest, to redevelop and move out just south of New England or tracking near Long Island or the New England South Coast during Friday. This is a wintry scenario for our region, starting as snow at least for all locations, but enough warm air gets involved that we will probably see some sleet and rain becoming involved with the system, especially the closer to the South Coast you are, during Friday, before it all ends as snow on Friday night. It’s a little too early for snow/sleet numbers, but the system has the potential to produce moderate amounts of accumulation over a good part of the region. Fair, cold weather will dominate behind that departed storm on Saturday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers at times this afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers. Temperatures rising to 48-55. Wind shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast with gusts above 40 MPH NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI.

WEDNESDAY: Any early clouds and rain showers give way to a sun/cloud mix with one more isolated rain shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 57-64, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W late.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine dimmed by high cloudiness. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow/sleet likely and ice/rain possible especially South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Watching for a disturbance February 27, probably just a cold front from the northwest with a few possible snow showers as a low pressure area passes well to the south and misses the region, reinforcing cold air through Monday. Temperatures remain near to below normal into the first days of March and watching for another threat of unsettled weather around March 2.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

The overall pattern looks colder than average with another storm threat potential at some point.

C-19 Chat Post – February 22 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

High pressure to the south brings fair weather and milder air to us today. Some high cloudiness will be in the sky in response to warming aloft too. Low pressure cuts northwest of New England Tuesday and through southeastern Canada Wednesday. This puts us on the warm side of the low which will bring rain to us Tuesday afternoon and evening as its warm front moves through, and rain showers for a while behind its warm front into early Wednesday morning. shower activity to our region Tuesday afternoon night, departing early Wednesday. With the low’s cold front not arriving until later in the day, it allows us to enjoy a very mild day, albeit with a gusty breeze, but still a very nice day for late winter. The cold front is expected to be moisture-starved, with no real threat of precipitation, but behind that front, colder air will settle in and Thursday will be noticeably different-feeling with a sun/high cloud mix as high pressure hangs to the north in eastern Canada and an area of moisture starts to push eastward along and north of a frontal boundary to our south. It looks like that initial push of moisture will dry up for the most part as it approaches and passes mostly to our south, but a wave of low pressure will have developed on the boundary by that in the Midwest and move rapidly east northeastward, and with cold air in place we have a good chance of a wintry weather event here on Friday at least starting as snow for most of the region. Time will tell whether or not that will be an all snow or mostly snow event, or if more sleet/ice/rain will get involved. It’s still several days away, so there is plenty of time to fine-tune those details…

TODAY: (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sunshine filtered at times by high cloudiness. Highs 45-50 South Coast, 51-56 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and rain likely during the evening. Mostly cloudy with rain showers overnight. Temperatures steady 40-47 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Any early clouds and rain showers give way to a sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W late.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine dimmed by high cloudiness. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow/sleet likely and ice/rain possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

The last 3 days of February look mostly dry and on the colder side of normal. A reinforcing cold front will probably pass through at some point. Colder theme for the first couple days of March and may need to watch for a storm threat as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-4)

The overall pattern looks colder than average with another storm threat potential at some point.

C-19 Chat Post – February 21 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

High pressure slides south of our region today and Monday with two nice days, the colder of the two being today (especially this morning) and a milder day for Monday (Presidents Day). Tuesday, low pressure will cut northeastward across the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley or across far northern New England, putting us on the warm side, so we’ll see rainfall here. Earlier I thought we may have to deal with a period of freezing rain somewhere inland for the start of this, but right now I think the timing of the rain’s arrival will be late enough Tuesday morning so that we won’t see this take place. A cold front trailing the departing low will swing through here Wednesday and we’ll turn windy and drier, although it will be mild initially before temperatures start to go down. This sets up a fair and seasonably cold day Thursday as high pressure sits over southern Canada but noses into the northeastern US as well.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain late morning on. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57 by midday, then turning cooler. Wind S shifting to W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Storm threat February 25, favoring snow/sleet over rain. Fair, seasonably cold weekend February 26-27. Storm threat February 28 and/or March 1.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Temperatures below normal, precipitation near to above normal with additional wintry precipitation possible.

C-19 Chat Post – February 20 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

A strong disturbance will cross our region today and bring 2 areas of precipitation through from west to east.. The first one coming at midday and early afternoon will be fairly benign and consist of some light rain/snow shower activity, with rain most likely at the front edge and closer to the South Coast. It is the second area that will be with a strong cold front trailing low pressure passing to our north which will cause a very narrow but more intense area of snow squalls accompanied by strong and gusty winds. This will cross the region from west to east mid through late afternoon. In any given location it will only last for several minutes, no more than about a quarter of an hour, but while it is occurring, visibility can drop to near zero, winds can gust over 30 MPH and a quick coating to 1 inch of snow can occur, making things very slippery during and after it falls, as some partial melting and then refreezing will take place. There is even the possibility of a few instances of lightning and thunder in the line. Once this goes by, it’s just going to be a windy and cold night with icy areas remaining on untreated surfaces where the snow fell. Sunday and Monday we see dry weather as high pressure slips to the south. It will start cold Sunday then recover somewhat, and a much milder Presidents Day is expected. Low pressure moving in from the west brings unsettled weather as we head toward the middle of next week, with initial ideas being a track to the west and a threat of rain over snow here, but we may need to watch surface temperatures for the possibility of some icing over interior areas, depending on the timing and details, which will be figured out…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Light rain/snow showers west to east midday and early afternoon. Snow squalls likely west to east mid through late afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially late-day, shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may start as freezing rain in some interior areas.. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Highs 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Fair, cooler February 24. Next storm system threatens in the February 25-26 period and has a better chance of encountering colder air and being in the form of frozen precipitation. Fair, seasonably chilly weather to end the month.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Pattern looks colder with additional wintry weather precipitation threats in early March.

C-19 Chat Post – February 19 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

We’re right at the end of our rain and wind event as I type this update just after 8:00 a.m. on Friday. If you are northwest of Boston (basically outside of I-95) and were outside or looking outside you saw a brief “car-wash” burst of rain and wind. There are actually a couple of these “line segments” moving through the area early this morning, and they represent the cold front. Even if you don’t see the heaviest rain with these, that front is coming through, and soon the rain threat will shut off from west to east, replaced by dry air, a sun/cloud mix, and a shifted but still gusty wind during today. Temperatures were at their maximum for the day in the upper 50s to lower 60s during the overnight hours and will be falling throughout the day today, but not drastically. However, by tonight we’ll end up well below freezing and any standing water that is not dried by today’s wind will freeze up. Keep that in mind if you have to venture out tonight and early Saturday. As for Saturday’s weather, a vigorous disturbance will be moving across the Northeast, and with colder air in place, that means the chance of snow showers here, except possibly rain shower activity closer to the South Coast. Right now I expect that we’ll see two batches of this activity, one in the midday to early afternoon hours, and another one later in the day. The second of these will likely be narrower but more potent, and may contain heavy snow squalls that white-out the visibility and drop a small snow accumulation in a short time, quickly making roads and walkways slick. Tomorrow night, we’ll have a genuine blast of cold and windy weather, setting up a cold start to Sunday. Although high pressure slipping to our south quickly on Sunday will allow the wind to shift to west and southwest and that combined with a good deal of higher angle sun will make it feel nicer by afternoon. This trend will continue with a legitimate warm-up for Presidents Day Monday, when many areas make a run at or exceed 50. However, our theme of quick changes continues, and the next low pressure area should be upon us with the threat of unsettled weather by Tuesday – with the early ideas on this being more of a rain threat than a frozen precipitation one. More fine tuning for that as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Clouds, rain showers, and rain squalls into mid morning west to east, then a sun/cloud mix. Temperatures fall to the 40s. Wind SW shifting to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing, shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers/squalls possible except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind W10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 32-39. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

A boundary will sit in our region for most of next week. One low pressure system departs early in the period with any rain/mix ending, then a second system around February 25 may have colder air to work with with a better chance of wintry precipitation or a variety. Temperatures trending colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Pattern looks colder with additional wintry weather precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – February 18 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

A lot of activity in the weather department for us in the coming days, both in the short range, and beyond, but first we tackle the next five days, starting with a warm one today! We’re immersed in a strong southwesterly air flow now, with some areas having enjoyed some nice sunshine this morning, but eventually clouds becoming dominant as we remain in a warm, windy air mass with temperatures climbing right into this evening. A strong cold front will be moving toward us from the northwest, and a ripple of low pressure moving up along it, passing to our northwest, will finally accelerate this boundary through our region Friday morning. Tonight and early Friday we’ll see widespread rain showers along with gusty winds, so a wet and windy ending to our brief warm spell is a certainty. Once the front goes by, the winds shift, stay gusty, and the temperature goes down Friday. It does look like the wind and dry air will be able to take care of drying most of the ground before the temperature goes well below freezing at night, so icy patches will be limited. Saturday, a vigorous disturbance will cross the region with a chance of snow showers and snow squalls, except rain or snow showers closer to the South Coast. This briefly reinforces the cold air for late Saturday to early Sunday, but quick moving features means high pressure will already be sliding south of the region during Sunday and we’ll have a temperature recovery from a cold morning to a tolerable afternoon, with even further moderation for Presidents Day on Monday as high pressure slides off the Atlantic Coast to our south.

TODAY: Areas of sun until midday otherwise becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53 South Coast, 53-60 elsewhere late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers arriving from west to east overnight. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts of 35-45 MPH inland and 45-55 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with numerous rain showers, ending west to east. Sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Temperatures steady 50-57 South Coast and 58-65 elsewhere early, then falling steadily to the 40s during the day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing, shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers/squalls possible except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind W10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A boundary will sit in our region for most of next week. Two low pressure systems should impact the area, the first early in this period, favoring a track to the north with rain favored, the second later in the period with an uncertain track and more possibility of a variety of precipitation. Variable temperatures, mildest early in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures as a boundary separating warmth to the south and cold air to the north sits nearby or over our region.

C-19 Chat Post – February 17 2022