COMMENTARY

10 years ago today I published the first blog entry here as we were dealing with a significant winter storm. That was fun, and it’s been an interesting and fun ride since. Thank you everybody who has supported this blog during its first decade of existence!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

Back to seasonably cold weather for this weekend. Today we may see some snow showers making their way all the way across New England via the Great Lakes, so while we have a mixed sky, some of those clouds may release some snowflakes and even brief minor accumulations in some areas. While today is rather blustery, Sunday will end up more tranquil with less wind, more sun, and no snow shower threat. Low pressure will track eastward, passing north of New England early in the week, bringing milder air and clouds in during Monday with a few rain showers, but perhaps a few snow showers west and north of Boston in the evening as colder air returns. Regardless, this will be a minor system and serve mostly to bring a new shot of cold air in for Tuesday, with wind and possibly a passing snow shower, followed by cold but more tranquil weather as high pressure builds in by Wednesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow shower possible, a few of which may result in minor accumulation. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 10-20 MPH

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a rain or snow shower. Clearing overnight. Lows 26-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31– JANUARY 4)

High pressure shifts offshore December 31 with fair and milder weather. Low pressure tracks across southeastern Canada with its frontal system bringing the chance of some rain shower activity here for January 1. Colder/drier January 2-3 followed by moderation and a risk of unsettled weather returning to the region by the end of the period on January 4.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

Best chances for unsettled weather from passing systems January 5 & 8. Evolution of pattern and storm track is a little uncertain at this time and we’ll be watching for some blocking to potentially set up before the end of this period which could shift the track of future storms more to the south.

C-19 Chat Post – December 26 2020

Merry Christmas to all who are celebrating it today!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A warm wind & rain for Christmas Morning 2020. We have had a variety of weather on Christmas Day over the years & decades – nothing unusual since we live in a part of the world that sees great variety. Hopefully the power outage issue will be as minimal as possible. Look for poor drainage and small stream flooding this morning due to the heavy rainfall, so be aware of that if traveling. As the rain gradually ends later today and wind backs off, we can be thankful that drying should take place for a number of hours before the temperatures drop below freezing, so we will avoid a flash freeze, but not necessarily some icy areas that will form eventually with any standing water and wet, untreated surfaces, so be aware of that later this evening and into Saturday morning. In addition, the advection of cold air from Canada via the Great Lakes will carry with it some remnant snow showers from lake-effect snows, and we may see some flakes flying at times tonight and Saturday, but not to worry – it won’t be an accumulation snow event. A few rivers may get near flood stage on Saturday, but should, for the most part, be able to handle the run off from rain and melting snow. Dry and cold weather is expected for Sunday as high pressure dominates. Early next week, our next unsettled weather threat times out for later Monday, but looks fairly benign, just a period of rain and possible snow showers as low pressure tracks north of the region. Behind it will come a shot of colder air with dry weather for Tuesday.

TODAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Overcast with widespread rain showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunder, tapering off from west to east by late day. Areas of fog early. Highs 55-62 early, then cooling to the 40s during the day. Wind S 15-30 MPH, gusts as high as 45-60 MPH, strongest in exposed areas, shifting to W and diminishing during the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and/or snow showers late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a rain or snow shower. Clearing overnight. Lows 26-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Dry and seasonably chilly December 30 as high pressure dominates. Similar to this week, high pressure moves offshore for New Year’s Eve with moderating temperatures as low pressure heads for the St. Lawrence Valley, passing northwest of New England, bringing a chance of rain showers for the first day of 2021, followed by drier and colder weather January 2-3.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)

Milder but unsettled weather expected January 4-5, details dependent on the track of low pressure moving through the Northeast. Drier/colder January 6-7 then the next chance of unsettled weather comes at the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – December 25 2020

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Not bad today as high pressure slips offshore, and while there will be a lot of clouds around, it will turn milder with a bit of an increase wind before the end of the day – but decent for any day-before-Christmas errands you may have. The well-advertised “event”, which really is going to be a glorified cold frontal passage, will take place Christmas Day, arriving as increasing southerly wind and warming temperatures first during Santa’s visit, peaking as a band of moderate to heavy rain showers, possible thunder, and additional strong wind gusts well into Christmas morning, before the front passes, rain showers taper off, and wind settles back after shifting to west. Yes, wind damage and flooding are both a concern, wind damage and some resultant power outages most especially. Flooding is going to depend on several factors – how much rain, the state of storm drains, quick-filling streams, and structures vulnerable to basement flooding especially when there is snow on the ground. This will vary from place to place, but if you are prone to seeing flooding, please be aware. As far as rainfall amounts, even under 24 hours before the main rain event, the guidance is still not really in agreement on how much will take place, with some short range guidance having amounts under 1.00 inch near the MA East Coast with a bit more to the west and over Cape Cod to the ECMWF (Euro) having widespread 2-3 inch rainfall amounts. At the moment, I side a little more with the lower numbers. Regardless of how much rain falls, thankfully, because of a decent gap of time between the end of the rain and the arrival of below freezing temperatures, we can rule out a flash freeze. However, standing water and any surfaces that don’t dry off or are untreated will end up icing over later Friday night into Saturday morning. The weekend itself will feature cold and dry weather due to Canadian high pressure. The next low pressure system approaches on Monday, with the current thinking is that this low, fairly moisture starved, will head through the Great Lakes bringing a rain/snow shower risk here by late Monday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east overnight. Areas of fog. Temperatures rise to 48-55. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, as high as 50-60 MPH especially in coastal areas and higher elevations, strongest toward dawn.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Widespread rain showers, some heavy, and embedded thunderstorms possible morning into midday, tapering off from west to east during the afternoon. Highs 53-60 morning, falling into the 40s by late-day. Wind S 15-30 MPH with gusts as high as 50-60 MPH, especially coastal areas and higher elevations, during the morning, shifting to W and diminishing somewhat during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and/or snow showers late-day. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Drier, shot of colder air December 29-30 then turning milder December 31 as 2020 goes out with fairly quiet weather. Next threat of unsettled weather comes on the first day of 2021 followed by fair weather on January 2.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

Dry/chilly January 3, milder/unsettled January 4-5, colder/dry January 6-7.

C-19 Chat Post – December 24 2020

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Don’t look now, but we’ve already gained 10 seconds of daylight back! You won’t really notice it for a week or 2, but the days are indeed getting longer, post-solstice. The rate of increase is very slow at first, but will pick up the pace as we head through the winter. Speaking of winter, it will feel like it today as high pressure brings dry and seasonably cold weather to our region. You’ll notice some high cloudiness starting to increase as the day goes on. This is a signal of the approach of a warmer air mass. The warmer air, being less dense than colder air, rides up and over it at first, creating the high clouds. Eventually that warmer air mass will arrive at the surface in a gradual way on Thursday, which will feature lots of clouds but some intervals of sun. I expect the daylight hours to be rain-free. As we get deeper into Christmas Eve, our rain shower chance will go up, but it looks like most of the rainfall will hold off until the pre-dawn hours of Christmas morning for arrival, and a ribbon of moderate to heavy rain showers will traverse the region during the morning, exiting west to east by midday and afternoon. During the wet weather time will be the strongest winds, from the south, 15-30 MPH with gusts in the 35-55 MPH range. A few gusts above that are possible in higher elevations, such as Blue Hill in Milton MA. After the main rain shower area exits, the wind, while still gusty, will have shifted to the west and dropped off somewhat during the remainder of Christmas Day, and a stray snow shower may wander into the region as a breakaway from a Great Lakes snow squalls. Canadian high pressure builds in for the weekend with cold and dry conditions.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly overnight. Temperatures rise to 48-55. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, as high as 40-50 MPH especially in coastal areas and higher elevations, strongest toward dawn.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy morning with rain showers, some heavy. Breaking clouds and rain showers ending early afternoon, then a risk of a snow shower late rin the day. Highs 50-57 early then temperatures fall through the 40s and into the 30s. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 18-25. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Unsettled weather threat in the December 28-29 period, early indications are low pressure passing north of here with rain and snow showers. Fair and seasonably chilly weather returns to end the year, then the next storm threat looms for New Year’s Day.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

Dry/chilly January 2-3, milder/unsettled January 4-5, colder/dry January 6.

C-19 Chat Post – December 23 2020

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Drying air eliminates any patchy fog early today and then we will see a sun/cloud mix as an upper level disturbance crosses the region, but with only a minimal chance of a passing snow flurry. This system will result mainly a shot of chilly air with gusty winds developing. It will remain cold but become more tranquil Wednesday as high pressure crosses the region. This high shifts offshore and allows temperatures to moderate on Christmas Eve as a low pressure area heads northeastward into southeastern Canada via the Great Lakes. The strong cold front trailing from this low will develop a wave of low pressure over the Appalachians which will move through NY in the early hours of Christmas Day and whip the front through the region with a short period of rain showers and very mild air, then a quick temperature drop behind it with drying weather and just a chance of a few snow showers surviving the trip from the Great Lakes region. Look for a chilly and breezy but dry Saturday between low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure in the Appalachians.

TODAY: Any early freezing fog patches dissipate but watch for areas of black ice. Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing light snow shower. Highs 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely, except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperatures rise to 48-55. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, as high as 40-50 MPH especially in coastal areas and higher elevations,.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy start with rain showers possibly ending as snow showers, then a sun/cloud mix with a possible snow shower. Highs 50-57 early then temperatures fall through the 40s and into the 30s. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 18-25. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Fair and seasonably cold December 27. A storm threat in the December 28-29 period. Fair and seasonably chilly weather returns to end the year.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)

2021 may begin with a rain/mix/snow threat followed by dry weather, a cold shot, then moderation.

C-19 Chat Post – December 22 2020

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 21-25)

Welcome to winter! Last year’s solstice sunrise was brilliant, whereas this one was obscured by low clouds and fog. in many areas the temperatures have been below freezing and some of that fog has contributed to icing on untreated surfaces so use caution if you are outside this morning. Some drying between an offshore storm system and an approaching trough from the west should result in partial clearing at times today and early this evening. This leaves us still with a chance to see the conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter low in the southwest sky between 5:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. The system coming from the west may produce some snow showers on Tuesday and behind it comes a reinforcing shot of cold air as high pressure moves in on Wednesday. I believe we are still seeing model corrections on going for the situation on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. High pressure offshore will allow milder air to flow into the region on Christmas Eve. An approaching front from the west will bring rain showers to the region that night and into the early hours of Christmas Day before a rapid temperature drop which may end the rain as snow in some sections. Still have some fine tuning to do on this forecast for future updates.

TODAY: Clouds and areas of fog to start. Early rain Cape Cod. Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Lows 23-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely, except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperatures rise to 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy start with rain showers possibly ending as snow showers, then a sun/cloud mix with a possible snow shower. Temperatures fall to the 20s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Fair, chilly weather expected for December 26-28 and then a risk of a wintry weather threat to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Tranquil weather for the last day of 2020 before a quick-moving system brings some unsettled weather to greet 2021, followed by a shot of colder, dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – December 21 2020

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)

A weak area of low pressure passes through the region during today with lots of clouds and some rain and snow shower activity, rain showers favoring Cape Cod & coastal areas with snow showers favoring inland spots. Other than the risk of brief coatings of snow, this will have very little impact. Another low pressure area will develop on an offshore frontal boundary on Monday but should scoot just southeast and east of New England, a fairly close shave though, with some cloudiness and even a chance of a period of rain on Cape Cod. Meanwhile, another area of energy will be diving through the Great Lakes and while not able to catch up to the offshore storm in time to give it a shot of energy, it should bring some mix/snow shower activity to our area on Tuesday. I’m still hopeful that we’ll have just enough clear sky between these systems to be able to view the great conjunction of Jupiter & Saturn in the southwestern sky at dusk Monday. When we get to midweek, high pressure to the west brings fair and cold weather Wednesday, then slides offshore with moderation on Thursday, Christmas Eve. The next system to the west likely holds off so that dry weather will also be expected for Santa’s visit later Thursday night…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain and snow around mainly afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early and late sun, a period of cloudiness between which may include brief rain on Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Lows 23-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely, except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A frontal boundary with a couple low pressure areas on it will bring unsettled weather to the region for Christmas Day, December 25, but the exact evolution and behavior of this system is somewhat in question. Current thinking is a brief shot of mild air and rather short-lived period of rain showers for the morning, followed by a sharp temperature drop with a shifting wind and a chance of snow showers. Fair, chilly weather expected for December 26-28 and then a risk of a wintry weather threat to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Low confidence forecast but current idea is for fair and tranquil weather for the last couple days of 2020 before a quick-moving system brings some unsettled weather to greet 2021, followed by a shot of colder, dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – December 20 2020

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)

A true weather nut will be fascinated by the contrast across our area during the nighttime hours leading up to sunrise when I started writing this blog. While many areas were clear and calm with significant radiational cooling over a fresh snow cover, dropping temperatures into the teens and single digits, even to near zero in some locations, cloud cover (with a few snow flurries) and a breeze did their job holding temperatures up in the 20s to even around 30 along the South Shore of MA and especially Cape Cod, and even Cape Ann from Gloucester through Rockport, as the western edge of the northerly air flow behind our recent storm continued unimpeded by the low friction of the ocean water. As today goes on, our temperatures will find themselves much more uniform across the region by early afternoon in comparison to how they started out the day, but it will be a cold day, albeit with plenty of sunshine, which will start to fade later in the day as we get an increase in high and mid level cloudiness in advance of our next disturbance. Unfortunately this will interfere with the view of Jupiter & Saturn, which draw ever closer in the sky on the way to their Grand Conjunction in just 2 days. But the weather has the say, and these clouds are going to move in, and the disturbance causing them will bring slightly milder air but also the chance of some light rain & snow shower activity on Sunday. This will not be a big deal, with rain showers most likely in coastal areas and Cape Cod while interior sections see a better chance of snow showers, where a minor accumulation could result in few slick spots. This system moves out Sunday evening, but probably again not in time to see the planets, leaving us one more chance on the day-of Grand Conjunction, Monday, also the Winter Solstice. But will see see it even then? That’s a good question. I have been keeping an eye on the potential evolution of another storm to threaten us on Tuesday, although the leaning has been for this to stay mostly offshore. But the evolution of this system may be a little different than I’d envisioned earlier, with 2 piece of energy not getting close enough to join up and create a larger storm. If this is indeed to be the case, what we will see is the southern energy sliding offshore south and east of us Monday with some high cloudiness that could exit in time for evening twilight planet viewing, and cloudiness from the northern piece of energy, while approaching via the Great Lakes, still holding off far enough to the west so as not to bother the view. Hoping this is how it turns out! Regardless, that northern energy is expected to dive across the region Tuesday with cloudiness and some snow shower activity (perhaps rain showers Cape Cod with more marginal temperatures), but not a big storm. Behind that comes high pressure and dry weather for Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light snow/mix/rain, frozen precipitation most likely Boston north and west, with rain more likely to the southeast. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early and late sun, a period of cloudiness between. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 23-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely, except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)

High pressure shifts offshore with dry but a little milder for December 24. Low pressure attempts a track northwest of New England for early December 25 but how much warm air gets into the region is questionable. While guidance will show a strong surge of southerly air, warmth, and a good slug of rain, I have my doubts this is exactly how it plays out. While we may eventually get into the “warm sector”, it will likely be difficult at first and also modified by snow cover, which will still very much be around in most of the region, and the rainfall along the frontal boundary that sweeps through from the west may be a much narrower area than depicted by models at this time. Cold air likely returns rather quickly by later December 25 hanging around for the remainder of this period as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

High pressure eastern Canada, low pressure approaching from west may bring a wintry weather event to start this period followed by a brief shot of cold, then moderation with more tranquil weather as 2021 arrives. This is a low confidence forecast at this time.