7:25AM

The squeeze-play is on today between departing, intensifying low pressure to the east and a narrow area of high pressure moving in from the west. This will continue the strong and gusty northwesterly air flow across the region, and despite bright April sun, it will feel even cooler than the 50s to near 60 that it is during the day today.  Winds finally drop off tonight but that will just allow temperatures to fall into the 30s in most areas. Friday will be a more tolerable day by April standards, much less wind, still plenty of sun to start, but clouds will advance later in the day ahead of an approaching frontal system. The low pressure area parent to this front will initially start to pass north of the region Saturday but will try to redevelop just over southeastern New England, similar to the system of Wednesday. It will then slowly move away through Sunday. The result will be an unsettled weekend, wettest Saturday, windiest Sunday. In fact, on Saturday, it may be cold enough aloft that precipitation bringing cold air down could cause some mix/snow in higher elevations.

A quick look into next week shows the potential, after a break Monday, for a prolonged period of unsettled weather setting up.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 60-65, upper 50s coastal areas. Wind light N shifting to SE.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain in the morning (higher elevation mix/snow?). Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Low 35. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 42. High 60.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 63.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late. Low 45. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 55.

10:43AM

Apologies for the lack of posts. Busy few days, fitting work in, and going for a heart test today. It’s a routine test, nothing wrong!

WEATHER UPDATE

Potent disturbance today, cold air aloft, lots of clouds, areas of showers, a few thunderstorms, even a chance for some hail. Not really a recipe for severe storms, just some notable ones where they occur.

It settles down but stays chilly as low pressure departs to the east and high pressure approaches from the west Thursday. The funneling effect between the 2 will keep it windy, thought it will be a bright day.

Clouds return Friday ahead of the next disturbance which comes through Friday night into Saturday with another round of showers. Still not sure how things turn out later in the weekend and early next week. Will keep a general low confidence forecast for now and re-examine later today.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly to variably cloudy. Occasional showers. A few thunderstorms with possible hail. Highs around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH through midday, NW 15-25 MPH and gusty this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers at night. Low 45. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 47. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 44. High 62.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

10:35PM

A cold front approaches Tuesday, which will be a mild to warm day (cooler South Coast due to wind off water). Rain showers will arrive from the west in the evening, making for a fairly wet night.

Front pushes offshore early Wednesday, which may begin with some showers, as low pressure forms on the front and intensifies while moving away. The balance of the day ends up windy and cooler with breaking clouds. Can’t rule out an additional shower due to some instability.

Thursday will be the brightest day of the week as high pressure moves in from the west, but low pressure to the east will still be close enough to cause a gusty breeze between itself and the approaching high pressure area. It will remain cool.

Late week will see the approach, passage, and departure of a low pressure area, the timing of which remains uncertain. For now, will go for an increase in clouds Friday, wet weather at night, lingering showers into Saturday, then variably cloudy conditions with some lingering threat of showers later Saturday and Sunday. There is conflicting information on whether or not it clears out by next Monday. Will split the difference for now.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 50s South Coast, 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Chance of showers early. Low 49. High 59.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Low 38. High 58.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers at night. Low 44. High 62.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 44. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 46. High 59.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 56.

12:45AM

This week starts with a very special day in this part of the world. Patriots Day, also the day of the Boston Marathon, is an important day in the Boston area. We have history and tradition. There will be a re-enactment of the battle that started the Revolutionary War in Lexington and Concord MA at dawn. It will be fair and chilly for that with temperatures in the upper 30s under a mostly clear, brightening sky, with light wind. There is, of course, The Boston Marathon, which takes on even more significance this year – one year after the bombing. The weather for this great race will be nearly perfect, cool to mild air, generally light wind, with a bit of a cooling sea breeze near the finish. And don’t forget about the Boston Red Sox, playing their annual late-morning start home game at Fenway Park. It will be a great day for April baseball.

How about the rest of the week? Here’s a quick summary.

A cold front approaches Tuesday, which will be a mild to warm day (cooler South Coast due to wind off water). Rain showers will arrive from the west in the evening, making for a fairly wet night.

Front pushes offshore early Wednesday, which may being with some showers, as low pressure forms on the front and intensifies while moving away. The balance of the day ends up windy and cooler with breaking clouds.

Thursday will likely be the brightest day of the week as high pressure moves in from the west, but low pressure to the east will still be close enough to cause a gusty breeze between itself and the approaching high. Cool air will dominate.

Late week will see the approach, passage, and departure of a low pressure area, the timing of which is uncertain. For now, will go for an increase in clouds Friday, wet weather at night, lingering showers into Saturday, then variably cloudy weather with some lingering threat of showers later Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50s coast, 60s inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH, coastal seabreezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving late day into the night. Highs in the 50s South Coast, 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Chance of showers early. Low 49. High 59.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Low 38. High 58.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers at night. Low 44. High 62.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 44. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 46. High 59.

9:28AM

An east wind off the chilly ocean will make today less mild than yesterday over most of the region, but still a very nice Easter Sunday for those celebrating it, and if you are, I wish you a happy one! High pressure in control will bring plenty of bright sun.

This high holds Monday, which is Patriots Day, or Marathon Monday, and with a more southerly flow it will warm up, especially inland. The wind will be light enough to allow some ocean breezes in coastal areas, and already an onshore flow along the South Coast with the southerly wind, so these areas again will be cooler.

A southwest flow arrives Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Though more clouds are expected, and eventually a shower threat, we’ll see all areas except the South Coast at least in the 60s, with some lower 70s not out of the question.

The front that approaches Tuesday will be slow to move through and will allow low pressure to form on it, keeping Wednesday unsettled and cooler. This low will then intensify and move away slowly, so that Thursday will be a fair but gusty and cool day. The squeeze play will be on Friday between that and another approaching low from the west. Questions arise as to how quickly this low will firstly move in, secondly hang around, and thirdly get the heck out of here. So the later Friday / Saturday forecast is low confidence, and when I put up The Week Ahead post later, we’ll probably add Sunday to the low confidence mix.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs upper 40s coast to upper 50s inland, 60 possible few far inland areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle to upper 30s inland valleys, lower to middle 40s elsewhere. Wind light E to SE.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 50s coast, 60s inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH, but coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late. Lows around 50. Highs upper 50s South Coast, 60s to around 70 elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.

7:29AM

An onshore flow from the east will send lots of low clouds from the ocean into southeastern New England today, but an approaching and passing cold front will turn winds around to west by Saturday, with the front bringing only some cloudiness early. The remainder of the weekend which includes Easter Sunday and Patriots Day Monday will be fairly nice as high pressure dominates. Some clouds may start to increase later Monday ahead of the next weather system. This system may impact the region in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame next week, but does not look too impressive at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY – EASTER: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s, coolest coast. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind light E to SE.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50s coast, 60s inland. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 54.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 60.

7:24AM

High pressure centered over the St. Lawrence Valley will slide eastward through the Canadian Maritime Provinces through Friday. An onshore flow (northeast to east) will dominate through Friday, relaxing later Friday. This will keep the weather fair but cool, though some scattered ocean clouds will visit coastal areas at times today and more so on Friday, starting to increase more later Friday. A pair of low pressure areas, one passing well southeast of New England, and a second  one passing north of the region, will bring some cloudiness into the region for Saturday though these systems will be fairly weak and not interactive with each other, so the chance for any precipitation on Saturday is minimal. High pressure will build across the region Sunday (Easter for many) and Monday (Patriots Day & Boston Marathon) with some great weather – seasonable to mild, coolest along the coast. A low pressure system will approach Tuesday and exit Wednesday with some unsettled weather at that time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny – some high clouds in the north sky early, scattered low clouds from the ocean at times. Highs in the lower to middle 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except partly cloudy with ocean clouds at times near the shorelines. Lows in the 30s. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny – occasional ocean clouds coastal areas and somewhat inland at times, tending to increase late, also some high cloudiness coming in from the west. Highs in the middle to upper 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 38. High 54.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 64, cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 48. High 60, cooler coast.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. AM rain showers. Low 41. High 53.

9:46PM

The summer preview is over.  The warmth of Monday and Tuesday is about to be history. Monday was a generally nice day despite plentiful cloudiness, and Tuesday was mainly cloudy and showery, with heavier showers moving in toward the end of the day for most locations. The problem with both days were strong and gusty southwest to south winds, which resulted in scattered damage and power outages.

A cold front is moving west to east through the region this evening and moisture will continue to flow northward along it, continuing the rain for most areas into the overnight hours. But as cold air works in, we’ll see a mix/change to sleet/snow from west to east, making it just about into the Boston area before the precipitation exits before the line really makes it any further to the southeast. Areas along and west of I-95 may see a coating to locally 1 inch of snow (especially higher elevations). All of this will clear offshore by dawn on Wednesday, which will turn out bright, cool, and windy. High pressure building in will make for a cold Wednesday night / Thursday morning as winds drop off under a clear sky. Thursday will continue to be cool, though the sun will feel nice, since there will be less wind. High pressure will hang on Friday which will start sunny but it will start to lose grip later in the day when clouds begin to increase.

Looking ahead to the weekend, which includes Easter for many, and is a long weekend as well for some as Monday is Patriots Day or Marathon Monday, it looks like low pressure will pass through the region Saturday with some wet weather, and may be fast enough that we start to clear late. Sunday looks mostly fair but some gusty wind and areas of clouds may be a factor as low pressure intensifies while moving away and cold air aloft allows clouds to pop up. Monday should start sunny but end with increasing clouds as high pressure tries to hold off approaching low pressure. That area of low pressure will get closer Tuesday which should turn cloudy with eventual wet weather arriving.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy with rain then a mix/change to sleet/snow from west to east from around midnight to around 5AM from west of I-95 into the I-95 corridor, but precipitation ending before changing over in southeastern MA. Snow accumulation of a coating to locally 1 inch where a changeover occurs. Lows by morning upper 20s hilly areas of north central MA and south central NH, 30s elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing at dawn, then mostly sunny. Highs middle 40s to around 50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from the lower 20s inland valleys to middle 30s immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light N.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny – few high clouds. Highs around 50. Wind light N to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but more clouds late day. Low 35. High 53.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers, ending late. Low 41. High 54.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning, partly sunny afternoon. Low 40. High 59.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 61.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Afternoon rain showers. Low 48. High 55.

9:08PM

Some of you were nervous, weren’t you?  You saw clouds and showers around Sunday morning and you thought “it’s not going to warm up, it’s going to stay lousy”. Weather changes often, and these changes are often marked by unsettled conditions. This is what happened Sunday morning – clouds and showers ahead of and along an advancing warm front.  It took a while, especially in east coastal New England, but the front has finally pushed through the region and some clearing did work in from the west with most areas seeing some sunshine before its after-7PM setting. And now it’s time to look ahead…

This coming week, typical of April, will feature some good contrasts. It will start with a summer preview Monday as a very warm southwesterly flow dominates the region ahead of a cold front west of the region. There will be an exception though, and that is where the southwest wind is coming off the Atlantic waters, keeping the South Coast of New England and southeastern MA considerably cooler. In fact there will be quite a temperature contrast from those ocean-cooled areas to the warmest zones, inland valleys well west and north of Boston. There should be plenty of sun as well. Clouds will start to increase at night from west to east as a strong but slow moving cold front from the west begins to push toward the region. It will likely take all day Tuesday and into early Wednesday for this front to transverse the region. It will be a slow west-to-east process, starting mostly  Tuesday afternoon and ending Wednesday morning. Despite the summertime temperatures readings expected on Monday in parts of the region, much colder air lurking on the other side of the approaching front, once it gets in here, may result in some locations flipping to snow before ending. In fact the areas that are the warmest Monday will have the greatest chance of flipping to snow early Wednesday. Once that fanfare is done, look for a quieter but chilly mid week as high pressure builds in. Fair weather should last through most of Friday, but the next low pressure area approaching from the southwest may spread clouds into the region before the day is over. It is a little far ahead, obviously, but I expect that system to be progressive and move through rather quickly during the first part of the weekend, when unsettled weather is expected. Improving weather would then likely follow on Sunday, which is Easter for those who celebrate it.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Patchy fog early. Partly to mostly sunny. Highs ranging from the upper 50s immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands to the 70s most of interior eastern MA and southern NH, some lower 80s possible interior valleys well west and north of  Boston.  Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to around 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds west to east. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers developing west to east midday on, may take a while to reach all eastern areas. Highs in the 60s except 50s South Coast. Wind S 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain and snow showers very early followed by clearing. Low 33. High 48.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

FRIDAY: Sunshine then increasing clouds late. Low 35. High 56.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 45. High 60.

7:44PM

Another day of fairly mild to warm temperatures on Friday – even warmer than I expected, with some locations hitting or exceeding 70, especially interior eastern MA to southern NH. A cold front has been working into the region from the northwest, but slowly, causing lots of clouds and some rain shower activity. This will continue through the night as a little wave of low pressure moves along the front, but also serves to pull it further to the south as it passes. This will allow somewhat cooler air to settle in through Saturday morning, along with lots of clouds, before drier air returns sunshine to the region and allows temperatures to warm up in the afternoon, except along the coast and over Cape Cod where it will be cooler due to the ocean’s influence. A warm front will cross the region eraly Sunday with some clouds and maybe a shower in parts of far northern MA and southern NH, otherwise sunshine will end up ruling Sunday along with slightly warmer air. This warm air will max out over the region Monday, with a late Spring / early Summer feel to the air thanks to a strong southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The exceptions both Sunday and Monday will be the South Coast and Cape Cod where south to southwest winds come across somewhat cooler waters and modify the temperatures there. Once we get to the Tuesday-Thursday period of next week, a transition will take place as a cold front ambles west to east across the region Tuesday with wet weather developing as mild air hangs on. How quickly midweek clearing comes will be dependent on the speed of the front and the push of a new high pressure area from Canada, so Wednesday’s forecast is low confidence. Thursday should be dry but fairly chilly.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Lows in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds to start out the day transitioning to lots of sun to finish it. Highs in the 60s, except 50s Cape Cod and falling into the 50s coastal areas afternoon. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with afternoon sea breezes likely.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind light SE.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a risk of a shower northern MA and southern NH in the morning, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s most locations, except upper 50s South Coast and Cape Cod and lower 70s interior valleys MA and southern NH. Wind S 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs upper 50s Cape Cod ranging to the lower 80s interior valleys of MA and southern NH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers developing west to east, becoming numerous. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

7:07AM

A big diurnal today for many areas. What’s a diurnal? In weather we use it to label the change in temperature from morning low to afternoon high. Today, some places that dipped into the upper 20s this morning will rebound to the lower 60s this afternoon – about a 40 degree diurnal.

Nothing major to change in this forecast from the previous one, other than to keep it a little more cloudy on Friday as a cold front sags through the region and hangs up near the South Coast. Once low pressure rides along this with a shot of wet weather Friday night and early Saturday, the rest of the weekend will be dry. Still looks like clouds arrive later Sunday ahead of a warm front which leads in a warm/windy air mass for Monday. Transition back to cooler air toward the middle of next week will likely result in some wet weather. But it all starts off with a bright day today (until clouds arrive late) with a gusty wind developing as milder air arrives.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny most of day, increasing high clouds late. Highs 60-65, 50s South Coast. Wind SW under 10 MPH early then increasing to 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers developing. Lows around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early especially southeastern MA to RI. Highs around 60, cooler South Coast. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then partial clearing. Low 45. High 56.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Low 48. High 64.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 51. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

12:59AM

This is that time of year that the sun is really making a difference. We have a fresh cool air mass now over southeastern New England, and the temperatures will be at least 10 degrees cooler in most areas today than they were on Tuesday. But the strong April sunshine will make the air feel warmer than it is, especially since it will be a west wind and not a widespread ocean wind (a west wind does still come off the ocean for parts of the South Coast so it will be cooler there). Some fair weather clouds will pop up from late morning into afternoon as sun hearing the ground will send some bubbles of moisture into the cold air aloft.  The cooler northwest wind of today will shift around to the southwest and start to warm things up on Thursday, with sunshine dominating, though some high clouds may start to increase in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will be moving along initially and will pass through the region by early Friday morning, bringing clouds and a risk of a few rain showers. It should push just far enough to allow some partial clearing into at least areas north and west of Boston on Friday while clouds hang on to the southeast. Clouds will likely return to all areas Friday night and Saturday morning, with perhaps some wet weather, as a wave of low pressure slides along the front nearby. Then, high pressure should push in for drier weather later Saturday and Sunday. A warm front will push through the region late Sunday and open the door for a much warmer shot of air at the beginning of next week.  This should be accompanied by fair weather but gusty winds on Monday, but clouds and showers may arrive Tuesday as yet another cold front approaches from the west.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny start and finish with fair weather clouds in between. Highs 52-57, coolest in the hills NW of Boston. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-33 inland valleys, 34-39 elsewhere. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny into late afternoon then increasing high clouds at the end of the day. Highs 60-65 except 50s  South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a risk of rain showers. Some sun especially NW of Boston afternoon, clouds dominate to the SE. Low 48. High 61.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 45. High 56.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Low 48. High 64.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 51. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

6:53PM

A mild Monday saw sun fading behind increasing cloudiness, and rain is set to move in tonight. This rain accompanies a warm front that will cross the region overnight, followed by a cold front that will sweep west to east through the region Tuesday as low pressure moves down the St. Lawrence Valley. The air with this system, even behind the cold front, will be fairly mild, so expect many areas to break 60 for high temperatures on Tuesday. A second front will cross the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday and send a cooler air mass into the region for Wednesday and early Thursday with a northwesterly wind. But winds quickly shift around to the southwest later Thursday as high pressure slips to the southeast of the region, and this will bring briefly milder air in again by Friday, just in time for the arrival of another cold front during Friday, bringing the threat of rain showers. This front may struggle to push through the region so cloudiness may linger into part of Saturday before fair weather takes over for the balance of the weekend, with slight cooling Saturday followed by a warm-up Sunday. This warm up will continue into the start of next week between high pressure offshore and a storm and frontal system to the west of the region.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Chance of embedded thunderstorms especially late. Lows 45-50, rising into the 50s overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms early morning tapering to scattered then isolated showers mid through late morning. Becoming partly cloudy with isolated showers afternoon. Highs 60-65 except 50s South Coast. Wind S shifting to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 57.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 62.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 55.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 65.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 74.

3:04AM

High pressure exits to the northeast and low pressure approaches from the southwest today spreading a shield of cloudiness into southeastern New England. By tonight, a warm front will approach and send a batch of rain across the region. Low pressure will pass west of the region early Tuesday then head down the St. Lawrence Valley, first dragging the warm front through the area then sweeping a cold front west to east. Rain will diminish to showers as the warm air arrives, then drier air will sweep in behind the cold front later Tuesday, which will be a fairly mild day. A shot of chilly air will wait until a secondary front crosses the region Wednesday with some passing clouds and a gusty wind. It won’t take long for this shot of chilly air to pass and a southwesterly flow will develop on Thursday, which will start chilly but end warmer. A cold front will approach the region Friday causing some rain showers. The timing of this front remains uncertain several days in advance, so the temperature as well as sky/weather forecast is somewhat low confidence at this time. It looks like the front will push through far enough for fair and cooler weather Saturday and milder weather Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 50s, coolest near the coast. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms during the morning then scattered lighter showers midday. Clearing mid to late afternoon. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s, coolest South Coast. Wind S to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 59.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 44. High 61.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 56.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 63.

11:30AM

A westerly flow will dominate the region, not the frequent east wind we often see this time of year. Sunshine will be limited today due to low level moisture and cold air moving in aloft. This is a recipe for lots of clouds, and even when the sun does shine it just cooks up more clouds. By Sunday, the lower level moisture will be gone and the upper air will be warming, which means much more sunshine!

Monday and Tuesday will be the time for the approach and passage of a southern stream storm system, the center of which will pass northwest of New England and up the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday. This means that we enter the warm sector on Tuesday, after sun gets filtered and faded by increasing clouds Monday and we get a good slug of rain Monday night. Though being in the warm sector Tuesday does not mean we bust out in to abundant warm sunshine. There will be lots of moisture so clouds will dominate and some showers may linger.

Midweek, that is, Wednesday and Thursday, will resemble today and Sunday in many aspects, though it looks like moisture will be little less available Wednesday so cloudiness should be less extensive than what we are seeing today.

The next weather system arrives Friday – a cold front, with a chance of rain showers. The timing of this front is uncertain. A slower timing of the front would mean a warmer day, a quicker timing would mean a more unsettled day with clouds and showers. But why worry so much about day 7? Let’s just wait and see, and enjoy a pretty decent spell of weather through midweek other than the clouds today and the rainy interruption Monday night into Tuesday.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 50-58, coolest in the hills NW of Boston, mildest interior southeastern MA and northern RI. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish, rain at night. Low 35. High 57.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, rain showers through midday. Low 48. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 36. High 53.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 33. High 61.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy, chance of rain showers. Low 46. High 64.