10:05PM

At 12:57PM on Thursday, a highly certain event will take place. This event is the Vernal Equinox, the end of Winter, the beginning of Spring. And that day itself will be fairly mild in comparison to many days we have endured in recent memory. However, this is not an indication of a change in the weather pattern. In fact, if anything, the below normal temperature pattern may be intensifying in the next 14 days. Despite the cold winter, we have not seen much in the way of record cold. That may change, somewhat, before we are done with this extended regime of chill. Some low temperature records may be challenged as we head down the home stretch of March in the first days of Spring.

Backing up a bit, a preview of the weather pattern for this week and resultant sensible weather is as follows…

Monday – St. Patrick’s Day: A snowstorm passes harmlessly out to sea just south of New England, possibly depositing a few flakes on Nantucket and otherwise just fanning its shield of cloudiness over southern New England during the morning, which will retreat southward in the afternoon. High pressure will be responsible for keeping the storm to the south, but also responsible for a very cold day, below freezing in much of the region all day long, and a very cold and clear night following.

Tuesday: High pressure centered just to the north noses a bit further to the south and provides a bright and chilly day but without too much wind.

Wednesday: High pressure retreats to the northeast while low pressure approaches from the southwest. The air will be a little less chilly but a bright start will lead to a grey finish. The air should be mild enough so precipitation arriving at night should be in the form of rain.

Thursday: Low pressure passes north of the region. Its warm front lifts north of the region in the morning, bringing rain showers to an end. Its cold front approaches in the afternoon with another chance of rain showers, but it will be a mild day between the 2 fronts, in the warm sector.

Friday: A gusty northwest wind between departing low pressure to the northeast and high pressure moving in from the west. Also a chilly day but with fair weather.

Weekend: Timing a little uncertain, but looks like unsettled Saturday with low pressure passing through, with track to determine precipitation type and coverage, then a push of very cold air arriving Sunday with more wind.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a little light snow around Nantucket. Lows around 10 interior valleys to around 20 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Decreasing clouds / increasing sun from north to south. Highs middle 20s hills northwest of Boston to lower 30s coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 inland valleys, 10-15 elsewhere. Wind light N.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-38.  Wind light N to NE.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds.  Chance of rain showers night. Low 28. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early morning and late afternoon. Low 38. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 29. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 16. High 34.

1:07PM

Forecast update for southeastern New England (full discussion on next post)…

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 15. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs around 35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers late. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of rain showers early. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 25. High 35.

8:57AM

One cold front is crossing southeastern New England with rain showers early to mid morning. A second front will cross the region from northwest to southeast with some clouds and only a slight chance of a rain or snow shower this evening. In between we will see a variably cloudy sky with only a few isolated rain showers but largely dry weather during most of the day, along with fairly mild air but also a gusty breeze. Not a perfect day, but not bad for mid March near the end of a pretty harsh winter.

The second cold front will deliver another batch of modified Arctic air that will take up residence over the region Sunday into early next week. What could have been a St. Pat’s Day snowstorm on Monday will slip out to sea to the south thanks to strong westerly winds aloft, courtesy our old pal, the Polar Vortex, which is still doing regular wobbles around eastern Canada as it has for much of the winter.

By the middle of next week, high pressure that comes overhead Tuesday will slide offshore, allowing milder air in, and the next weaker storm will likely travel through the Great Lakes and be a rain shower producer here late Wednesday or Thursday, with dry and cooler weather at the end of next work week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers pushing eastward across southeastern MA through 10AM, then only isolated rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower early, then clearing. Lows around 20. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 15. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs around 35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers late. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of rain showers early. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

4:45PM

The January weather in March will continue through early Friday as intensifying low pressure moves away from New England and we’re left with a chunk of Arctic air. Strong winds will continue into the night as the sky clears, and air temperature will fall below 10 in many areas with wind chill values below zero. The air mass will moderate during Friday as high pressure slides south of New England and a warm front approaches from the west, bringing increasing clouds after a sunny start. This warm front may bring some showers of rain or freezing rain to the region Friday night as surface temperatures will be close to freezing but the air aloft will be too warm to support snow.  By Saturday morning, the warm front will have passed and the parent low passing north of New England will drag its cold front through, with a few rain showers around through the middle of the day. The remainder of the day will feature clearing and mild air, as the air behind that cold front is not really that cold. It will be a second cold front passing by later Saturday night that will introduce colder air but fair weather for Sunday.

St. Patrick’s Day 2014 will be cold and mainly cloudy. Will it snow?  That remains to be seen, as there is some conflicting information on whether or not a developing storm to the south will make it far enough north to deliver a shield of snow to southeastern New England. At the moment, my leaning is that this will stay offshore or just graze the South Coast. This storm, hit or miss, should be moving away by Tuesday which is expected to be a dry and cold day. The middle of next week is a little tricky but a quick educated guess removes the snow/mix threat previously mentioned for Wednesday, and puts the chance of rain/snow showers to Thursday – only an educated guess based on which guidance I think may have the better timing. Long way to go to refine the day 6 and 7 forecast.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 urban centers and South Coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs from the lower 30s hills NW of Boston to 40 Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain or freezing rain especially northern MA and southern NH late. Temperatures steady in the 30s, coolest far north and west of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix far south. Low  17. High 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 51.

7:25AM

The cold air is in, the precipitation has flipped to snow but will not be the big story today. Untreated surfaces will be icy today, but a strong, gusty wind, and daytime temperature near 20 in much of the region will make it feel like the mid part of winter due to the lack of sun. Snow showers will continue as the storm pulls away and intensifies. Dry air returns tonight, which will continue to be windy and very cold.

A warm front approaches by later Friday with clouds returning and some spotty light precipitation at night. A cold front sweeps through the region early Saturday with a few rain showers, but the air behind it will not be that cold, so look for a nice afternoon. A second cold front will come through Saturday night and introduce colder air for Sunday.  Still expecting storminess to evolve offshore early next week but may have to watch for another low pressure area around the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Frequent snow showers this morning, diminishing this afternoon. Additional snow accumulation generally less than 1/2 inch. Temperatures steady around 20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing. Lows around 10. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs around 35. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with spotty light snow/freezing rain overnight and rain showers morning, then partly cloudy. Low 32. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 38.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Partly sunny. Low 18. High 34.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 20. High 33.

7:26AM

March is a fickle month. We describe it this way as if it thinks and can’t make up its mind. But it sure seems that way. The next few days will be a great example of this with plenty of action and change in the weather across southern New England.

It starts with an intensifying storm riding a sharp boundary between mild air to the south and very cold Arctic air just to the north. The low will cut right across southern New England on its east northeast track tonight. The bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain, heaviest over northern MA and southern NH and somewhat lighter to the south especially southeast (Cape Cod area). But as the storm goes by a wind shifting into the north will yank the very cold air right into the region, before the precipitation stops, with a transition to freezing rain, sleet,and snow from north to south. Though only brief freezing rain and minor accumulation of sleet/snow are expected, the rapid drop in temperature and the timing of the event (Thursday morning) will impact travel. Also, even though the precipitation will be largely ended by noon Thursday, the day will be a windy and very cold one, with any icy areas lingering on untreated surfaces.

Behind the storm, expect a frigid Thursday night and Friday morning, with slight moderation under strong March sun Friday afternoon back to above freezing. A milder push of air will arrive by Saturday ahead of a cold front, along with lots of clouds and a rain shower risk. Colder air returns Sunday and early next week, though not as cold as the Arctic invasion of Thursday. We’ll watch storminess offshore early next week, but so far it’s expected to stay offshore.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Overcast. A little light rain southern NH and far northern MA through midday. Rain developing from west to east later in the afternoon all areas, lastly on Cape Cod. Highs in the 40s except 50s  South Coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH, SE 10-20 MPH South Coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain to start, then changing to freezing rain, sleet, and snow from north to south overnight. Temperatures falling into and then through the 30s and 20s.  Wind SE to SW over southeastern MA and RI for a while, NE to N elsewhere then eventually in southern MA and RI as well, 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow accumulating 1-2 inches with locally 3 possible in the morning, then snow showers in the afternoon. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH. Wind chill in the single digits and teens.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 49.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 36.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Partly sunny. Low 18. High 37.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 19. High 35.

7:44AM

High pressure brings a nice mild day today. Cold front settles into the region from the north tonight but never really pushes far enough south to bring cold air back in before low pressure travels along the front while intensifying on Wednesday. This means a mostly rain event for a good portion of southeastern New England (some mix far northwest), but then a switch to snow on the back side as the storm moves away, enough for some minor accumulation but a possible quick freeze up early Thursday (more on this later). Thursday will end up windy and very cold. Friday will be fair and more tranquil as high pressure moves in. A disturbance passing north of the region will bring a milder southwest wind Saturday but with clouds and a rain shower risk, then colder air back in on Sunday with fair weather. Longer range outlook – storminess stays well offshore early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing west to east midday-afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind calm early then E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, heaviest in the evening, then changing to snow from northwest to southeast overnight with minor accumulation possible. Lows near 30. Wind E 15-25 MPH and gusty shifting to N overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Temperatures falling into the 20s.  Wind N 15-35 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 34.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 44.

10:40PM

After averaging nearly 10 degrees colder than normal through the first week of the month, the second weekend of March featured a reprieve with high temperatures over 50 in most locations in southeastern New England Saturday. And though Sunday will quite a bit cooler (upper 30s to lower 40s) it was still quite tolerable.

Now, it’s onto the coming week, which will feature a variety of weather – something March is quite known for. It starts out with some snow showers and lots of clouds Monday as a disturbance passes through the region along a frontal boundary. A low pressure area approaching the region from the northwest Tuesday will drag this front northward and allow some mild air to flow into southeastern New England, before the low’s trailing cold front slides through the region Tuesday night as low pressure moves off the New England Coast. This battle zone between much colder air to the north across eastern Canada and northern New England and mild air just to the south will provide an avenue for a more important storm to travel, impacting southeastern New England Wednesday into Thursday. The exact track of the low pressure area which will be coming across the Midwest and into the Northeast will be crucial in determining precipitation type. At a few days away, I am not confident just how it is going to work out yet, but my leaning is toward a track a little further south than most computer guidance suggests, and a colder scenario, but a close enough track for some rain over at least southeastern MA and RI and up to around Boston, with mostly snow to the northwest. This will be tweaked and fine tuned, of course, as the event draws closer.

Once the storm moves away, a chunk of Arctic air will be pulled southward out of eastern Canada and make it feel like mid winter on Thursday, along with some very strong wind as the low intensifies rapidly as it heads for the Canadian Maritimes. By Friday, high pressure will move in, eliminating the wind, increasing the sun, and moderating the temperature.

By the time we get to next weekend, another disturbance will approach and cross the region, but best info this far out suggest it will not be a major system.

Forecast for the coming week for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow developing – local coatings by dawn. Lows in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow early. Highs around 40. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow – no accumulation. Lows around 30. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Developing mix to snow northwest, rain to mix to the southeast, probably snow all areas by evening. Temperatures in the 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast, falling to the 20s north to south at night.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Windy. Temperatures in the 20s.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 35.

9:25PM

Weekends always seem to go by so fast, and this one will go by faster than all the others. You know why – it’s clock-changing time. Remember to set clocks (that don’t reset themselves) forward one hour tonight / early Sunday morning – as Daylight Savings Time begins at 2:00AM Sunday.

As for the weather, a very nice treat on Saturday – 40s & 50s with fair weather, will be followed by a return to reality Sunday – 30s, but at least more fair weather. A cold front has passed through southern New England and will temporarily slow down as a weak wave of low pressure moves along it, just south of the region, in the early hours of Sunday. High pressure noses in for Sunday providing the nice but chilly weather, and then another fast-moving low pressure wave will move along the front and pull it back to the north early Monday. This will bring a period of snow to southeastern New England with minor accumulation. A break will come midday and afternoon Monday before another low pressure wave, this one a bit further north, moves eastward and drags the front back through as a warm front Monday night, with yet another period of snow possible. But this will introduce a brief shot of mild air for Tuesday, before the front drops back to the south once again as a cold front, bringing more cold air in from the north. This sets up an interesting potential for the middle of the week as low pressure approaches from the southwest with the threat of a winter storm later Wednesday into Thursday. At this point it remains too early to go into detail on this system. Beyond it, a shot of blustery and cold weather is expected next Friday.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds linger South Coast early otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 30-38, coldest across hills northwest of Boston and mildest South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. A period of snow after midnight – accumulating a coating to 1 inch. Lows in the 20s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers ending northwest to southeast early, then partly sunny.  Clouds return at night with a chance of light snow. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 30. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix late. Low 20. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow especially morning. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 20. High 35.

5:39PM

Pretty straightforward weather pattern to describe for the next several days, then a complex medium range (thank goodness it’s too early for detail).

A bright cold Thursday – probably felt warmer than it was with the higher March sun. But another cold night is on tap as high pressure crests overhead, bringing a clear sky, calm wind, and dry air, allowing the temperature to fall easily. Then, legitimate moderation of air mass takes place on Friday and Saturday as high pressure slides eastward off the coast, but at the same time a developing storm system passing well southeast of the region may be just close enough to bring some rain to portions of Cape Cod and the Islands. A cold front will pass by Saturday night with a few snow showers and a return to cooler, but not too cold, Sunday.

When we get to next week, things get more complex. A warm front approaches Monday with lots of clouds, and a wave of low pressure rides eastward along it, passing by early Tuesday then dragging the front southward as a cold front, introducing more cold air, and setting up a potential winter storm for mid to late week as a larger storm system may impact the region. Many days to monitor this possibility…

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows near 0 inland valleys to near 20 Cape Cod. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Increasing high clouds, thickest in the afternoon over southeastern MA and RI. Highs in the 30s. Wind light variable to SE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible over Cape Cod and the Islands. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy southeastern areas early otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers at night. Highs in the 40s. Wind variable becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 25. High 30.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow or rain likely. Low 30. High 38.

2:53AM

A cold front will attempt to reinforce cold air over southeastern New England today, and will have some success, basically since it’s already cold. The air behind the front is not really any colder than the air ahead of it, and the front is really just going to be responsible for lots of clouds, a few snow showers, and a wind shift today. High pressure builds down from the north with fair weather Thursday and Friday, along with a slight temperature moderation. A storm developing south of New England is expected to pass southeast of the region and out to sea while a couple disturbances in the northern jet stream move through southeastern New England from the west over the weekend and early next week. The second of these may lead another shot of very cold air into the region.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Only minor local accumulation. Highs near 30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing north to south. Lows 15-20. Wind light NE to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-20 from valleys to the coast. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow showers late. Low 20. High 43.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 20. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 35.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

7:27PM

Some people may be searching for Spring, but what they are really searching for is a warmer than normal late winter weather pattern. Yup, it’s still winter. And on March 3, there are still 17 days left to the season. But just because Spring officially arrives on March 20, this is not a magic threshold whose crossing means a sudden flip to leafed-out trees, soft green grass, and lots of tweeting birdies. It doesn’t work that way around here, so don’t lie to yourself. 🙂

The fact is this. There is no end in sight to the colder than normal pattern as far out as I can see. What is a little different is that we’re back in a drier pattern with storm threats minimal. We’ll be hearing from disturbances in the northern jet stream while southern jet stream moisture likely stays south of New England. The first disturbance comes along Tuesday night and Wednesday and brings lots of clouds and a risk of a few periods of very light snow with no appreciable accumulation. Clouds will be stubborn to leave as a cold high pressure area sets up shop over southeastern Canada and a broad area of low pressure forms well to the south, with an onshore flow resulting between the two. This will cloud the sky for Thursday and Friday, but as low pressure slides off to the northeast, well southeast of New England, some sun should return at least for part of Saturday. Another northern jet stream disturbance is expected to cross southern New England from west to east Saturday night and Sunday morning, and may bring a light snowfall to the area.

The forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows -4 to 0 deepest inland valleys, 0-10 most areas, 10-15 coast. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Sunshine much of the day but filtered by increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 22-30, coldest in hills northwest of Boston, mildest along the immediate shoreline. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light snow late. No snow accumulation. Lows 12-20, coldest interior valleys. Wind light N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Patchy very light snow. No snow accumulation. Highs 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 22. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Low 18. High 32.

10:32PM

It’s not really a “big storm” going through the Middle Atlantic. You know, that “big one” that was “supposed to” clobber New England tomorrow? Oh wait, that was days ago when that was a top story. It’s time to separate fact from fiction, and then move quickly onto a look at the weather for the coming week in southeastern New England. Yes, it’s not really a big storm, but a big reaction. There is no powerful low pressure center. This is a large scale reaction of a contrast in air masses and a large area of moisture moving along the boundary. The result may be the same for many areas as if a big low pressure area was responsible, but it’s important to know the difference here.

Talking about a big storm days in advance is risky for more than one reason. Two of the main reasons, in my opinion, are firstly, people hear the phrase “big storm” and lock onto it, and secondly, it’s usually first brought up days before any such thing has even developed. Big storms don’t seem to be born of atmospheric processes anymore, but they are now fabricated by various information sources with an overabundance of data to analyze, or at least glance at. This is not a good thing. It gets ratings, yes. But it also breeds non-believers, and should that be any surprise? The average person is going to remember the “big storm” that was “supposed to” result in a bad commute/day off of school/nowhere left to put the snow/when is winter gonna end?/where is Spring?! potpourri of anger (because we just can’t handle any more of “the worst winter ever”), envy (for our neighbors in distant warmer places), and joy (“yay, I don’t have to do my homework or take that test!”). But this is not what they should be remembering. They should be receiving a little education with each forecast, be it from a blog, a radio, the television, or the internet. Viewers/readers have various degrees of interest. Some want a quick forecast, some want the in-depth analysis. It can be a balancing act to please everybody. On my blog, I commonly start with a discussion of why I expect what I do, followed by a detailed forecast. The aim here is to appease both the “sit-down diners” and the “drive-thru grab & go people”. But the attempt is always made to do so as clearly as possible, maybe more successful at some times versus others. I realize that this is easy for me to do here, since I am not answering to someone that is in charge of getting ratings. But I believe this responsibility falls to all of us in this field, and even those in the ratings business need to find a way to balance the quest for audience with conveying information in a responsible way.

When a storm system is talked about days in advance and doesn’t even exist yet, and is talked about in detail like it’s a done deal, a lock, a “can’t miss”, that is fiction.

We have the ability to do this better, keep it simple, and reasonable. And that’s a fact.

………………………………………………………………………….

Congratulations for surviving my editorial, now to the coming week.

A frontal boundary sitting south of New England will be the running board for all the moisture largely missing the region early Monday. Just some light snow will skirt the  South Coast with minor accumulation. A clearing trend will follow from the north during Monday with fair and cold weather through most of  Tuesday as a narrow cold high pressure area builds southward over the region. A disturbance coming through the Great Lakes will cross New England Tuesday night with a chance of snow showers, dragging a reinforcing cold front southward through New England. This front will not make it too far south of the region, and as a new high pressure area builds north of the region on Wednesday, clouds will likely hang in across southeastern New England. All of the next 3 days will feature below normal temperatures. A slight moderation will follow for Thursday, but clouds are likely to remain dominant as onshore flow prevails between high pressure to the north and a new low pressure area moving from the Gulf of Mexico to off the US Southeast Coast. This low will move northeastward and may be close enough to bring some precipitation to southeastern New England late this week, sometime during the  Friday-Saturday time frame. Another disturbance may pass by from west to east by late Saturday or early Sunday, bringing yet another cold air mass to the region.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible near the MA East Coast. Periods of light snow possible southern RI through far southeastern MA – up to 1 inch. Lows 10-15 northwest of Boston, 15-20 from Boston to Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds and a bit of light snow near the South Coast to start the day, otherwise increasing sun north to south. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 0 inland valleys to 10-15 South Coast. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny into afternoon then some clouds arriving from the north by late day. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow early. Low 15. High 28.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/drizzle mainly eastern and southern areas. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Low 32. High 40.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/rain showers. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 33.

5:20PM

Did it feel a little milder today? The lower to middle 30s for high temperatures in much of southeastern New England were in contrast to the Arctic cold yesterday. It’s all relative. Today’s temperatures in November or April would be considered very cold. We’ve adjusted, like it or not, to the cold pattern. And it’s really not going away anytime soon. Now that we’ve got that squared away, it’s on to the storm threats. There are 2 of those in this forecast period. The first is the well advertised Sunday-Monday threat, one that I’ve always had a close eye on but was never too worried about it becoming a big snow event for most of the region, if any of it. It appears that it will be a minor to borderline moderate event for southeastern New England, occurring mainly during Sunday evening, from the first of 2 low pressure waves riding along a cold front that will have just passed through the region. The second of these waves is expected to stay too far to the south. This would be the one responsible for the more significant snow if it were to come far enough north. It does not look like that will happen. But we know better to turn our back on such a system. It’ll be spied until it’s safely beyond the region Monday. After that, it’s dry and cold for Tuesday into the middle of next week. The next storm threat, the end of next week, is too far away to talk about other than it will be the development of a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico that may make a run up the East Coast. Possible tracks this many days away range from a storm here to a complete miss – any surprise?

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 22-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow showers except rain/mix showers South Coast region. Highs 30-38. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, accumulating from a coating southern NH to around 3 inches along the South Coast. Lows 12-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clearing. Highs 24-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 24.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 26.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/rain late. Low 22. High 37.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/rain. Low 32. High 38.

7:24PM

Arctic air made it feel like mid Winter today, though bright sun ruled. We lose some of the sun tomorrow as a frontal boundary approaches, though we also moderate the air mass. Areas that were near 20 today should near 30 tomorrow, for example, so about 10 degrees “milder”. But this will be after one frigid night tonight, with a mostly clear sky and a calm wind with very dry air allowing temperatures to fall below zero in most areas away from cities and shorelines. The approaching front will make its way though the region from northwest to southeast. Some precipitation, snow/mix north, mix/rain south, may accompany this front. As it sits south of the region by Sunday night, a low pressure area is expected to ripple along it. This should throw precipitation back into most of southeastern New England with air cold enough for snow, some some accumulation is expected. This will taper off Monday as the low pressure wave moves away. A second wave of low pressure would bring more important snow if it came close enough, but my current feeling is that this area will pass too far south to impact all of the region, and may just bring some snow to the South Coast. For the entire event (Sunday-Monday), only light snow accumulation is expected from southern NH into MA, with light to moderate amounts in far southern MA and RI, moderate favoring the South Coast.

Behind the unsettled weather will come another bout of cold and dry weather for mid week, with some temperature moderation late in the week. Don’t look for a big warm up, however, as the pattern we are going into is one that will feature less storminess, but frequent cold air masses.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from -8 interior valleys to around 0 most suburbs to around 10 urban centers and immediate shores. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-34. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of midday-afternoon light rain/mix south of Boston and light mix/snow Boston north and west, then a period of snow possible everywhere at night. Highs 30-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow in the morning. Clearing NW to SE by late day. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.