DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

The hot and humid spell goes on for another 2 days, and then we lose the heat but keep the humidity Tuesday through Thursday as a frontal boundary moves slowly into and across the region from north to south. Today and Monday will feature the air mass pop up style showers and thunderstorms which will be mostly isolated and occur mostly during the afternoon to early evening. The shower and thunderstorm threat goes up with greater coverage expected Tuesday and Wednesday. A wave of low pressure on the frontal boundary has the potential to enhance the activity so we got a shot of beneficial and much-needed rainfall on Wednesday. After this, the question becomes how quickly will we see improvement, with Thursday being a day of uncertainty. If the boundary is slow enough, we get a day dominated by cloud coverage and additional shower chances. If it clears the region a little more quickly, we dry out more quickly. I’m slightly leaning toward the slower scenario for now but with low confidence, and fine-tuning will definitely be needed in the days ahead…

TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms can be locally strong to severe with wind damage being the greatest threat. Highs 88-95 except 81-88 some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH but some east coastal sea breezes possible. Variable winds with moderate to strong gusts possible around any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point around 70. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

High pressure builds in with cooler, drier weather to start the period, seasonably warm and dry weather for the August 13-14 weekend, then the high pushes offshore with an increase in humidity and possibly shower chances early in the following week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

Still leaning toward a little more up and down with temperature, zonal flow pattern but allowances of cooler / drier air to come down out of Canada. Despite upcoming rain chances, not seeing a longer-term wetter pattern to end the ongoing drought, but will continue to watch for this.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-7-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

A short update today to start your weekend. Basically more of the same for our area this weekend and to start the week with a weak zonal flow aloft and a Bermuda High in place – classic summertime pattern for heat and humidity and daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The percentage chance and coverage of activity today and Sunday will be a little lower than yesterday, but still that doesn’t mean that areas that were missed by yesterday’s activity could not be hit by something today and/or Sunday. It’s just a hit and miss kind of thing that we don’t really know until there are storms developed, and then we can track in real time. So if you have weekend outdoor plans, don’t cancel them for rain / lightning risk, but be very weather-aware not only for these possibilities, but the certainty of the danger from higher heat and humidity. Stay out of direct sun when possible, use sun screen, and most importantly, stay hydrated! A cold front presses closer to the region Monday and probably moves into and slowly through the region Tuesday when our shower and thunderstorm chances go up again. This at least brings some chance of a more widespread beneficial rainfall event for the region, although one such event will not be a drought buster. These can set the table for better relief if a more promising rainfall pattern follows it, and I can’t promise that at this point. Beyond Tuesday, there is some possibility that the front may be slow enough to allow a wave of low pressure to bring additional shower activity to the region Wednesday, but confidence is lower on this. One thing I am pretty sure of is that by then, the heatwave will be a memory.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 82-89. Dew point around 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

High pressure pushes in during the period with mostly dry weather expected for much of the period, more seasonable temperatures as well, and lower humidity at least for the first part of the period before it may increase again. The very end of the period may feature unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

A little more opening up of air flow from Canada may allow one or two pushes of cooler/drier air, but still low confidence on this at this point.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-6-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

A hot spell continues as the Bermuda High set up remains dominant through at least Monday, possibly into Tuesday, before breaking. So this also includes the coming weekend. While down the road there are stronger signs of a break in the heat, while I previously said this pattern reminds me a little bit of one we evolved into in 1988, it won’t last quite as long as that spell of hot August weather did, so while this is a good old fashioned stretch of hot summer weather, it’s far from unprecedented. We’ve seen a few records fall recently, but we’re not exactly picking them off like a shooting gallery this summer either, which ran near to below for temperature until the middle of July before we flipped to a warmer / hotter regime. Anyway, of more immediate concern is the continuation and slow expansion of our drought, as areas that do see rainfall often see it in short-lived heavier bursts from showers and thunderstorms, and it doesn’t really absorb well, just running off, and being low coverage in terms of the entire region. And with somewhat limited opportunities for shower and thunderstorm activity, I’m not looking for any improvement in the drought situation either. What looked like a more productive day today will be anything but, with just pop up storms that don’t have the ability to sustain themselves for long, and just rain themselves out without moving all that far, and again low coverage. This chance will diminish as we enter and go through the coming weekend. But it will return again during Monday with the approach of a frontal boundary from the north. This front may take until Tuesday to fully enter and cross the region so the shower and storm threat will continue then too.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Isolated to scattered midday and afternoon showers and thunderstorms, any of which can produce torrential downpours, cloud-to-ground lightning, and possibly brief gusty winds. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 immediate coastal areas, especially South Coast. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 82-89. Dew point around 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

An area of high pressure moves in during the middle of next week with fair weather, lower humidity, and more seasonable warmth, then slides to the south with a spike in humidity and a shower and thunderstorm chance later in the week before a drier trend toward the middle of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

Continued hints that the hotter weather heads back toward the Midwest / Plains of the US and leaves the door open for a couple shots of cooler air from eastern Canada, but with continued below normal rainfall.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-5-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

A hot spell is ours for the next 5 days. The hottest day is likely to be today, and there were be locations that catch some breaks from the heat, though the humidity is going to reside in the high category for most of us for the entire period, only knocked down almost unnoticed when a weakening cold front comes through the region late Friday and washes out over the region early in the weekend. Overall, there are no real changes to yesterday’s ideas. I’ve wrestled with the idea of whether or not thunderstorms from NY would reach the northwestern WHW forecast area later today, and yesterday I took them out of my forecast, but today I have to include the chance that one or two make it there this evening. Not looking for any severe storms, just remnant activity. Friday carries our greatest thunderstorm potential with the approach of the frontal boundary, which then diminishes to only widely scattered Saturday and isolated for Sunday as that boundary washes out over the region, but the approach of another front from the northwest by Monday increase the chance again later that day, based on current expected timing.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of an evening shower and brief thunder southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially mid to late afternoon. Highs 90-97 except below 90 along the South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon. Highs 85-92, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 86-93, coolest southern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89-96. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

The front that approaches late August 8 may take the entirety of August 9 to pass through so there will be a shower and thunderstorm chance that day. High pressure moves in with fair and warm but lower humidity weather August 10-11 before the humidity and thunderstorm chances increase later in the period, at least briefly. Watching for a possible push of drier air from the north at the very end of the period, but low confidence on that right now.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

A few hints starting to show up that we may see some pattern retrogression, putting the high pressure and hot weather back toward the middle of the US. If this takes place, the door may open to drier and somewhat cooler air from eastern Canada. Either way, rainfall pattern looks below normal allowing drought to continue.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-4-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

Classic summertime pattern for New England over the next 5 days. First, high pressure sits over us today with warm air but lower humidity behind a weak cold front that passed by our region during yesterday. This front produced a few showers and thunderstorms, but most locations went without. Everybody gets the humidity break today though, and many areas will fail to reach 90, though some interior locations may touch it this afternoon. Expect a coastal sea breeze to provide natural air conditioning for the beaches. The Bermuda High heat pump takes hold for Thursday through the weekend, but the hottest day, temperature-wise, will be Thursday when dew points start out lower and give the atmosphere a chance to heat up more rapidly. The thunderstorms that I previously mentioned to watch for late in the day for the northwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area will probably take place a little further west and an hour or two later than I envisioned previously, so I am removing this chance from the forecast other than us seeing a deck of clouds on the horizon that may blot out the sun before it reaches the horizon Thursday. Friday and the weekend will be very warm to hot and humid, with highest dew points likely on Friday. They may come down just a bit for the weekend as what used to be a cold front moving into the region on Friday will wash out and dissipate as it runs into the influence of the Bermuda High, but will have brought with it every-so-slightly less humid air. Many won’t notice a big difference though, except possibly along the coast where a few sea breeze may take place on the weekend – more likely Saturday than Sunday. Also, I expect that the weekend will be largely a rain-free time period, but I cannot rule out a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms popping up. There may also be a little bit more in the way of mid level cloudiness at times during the course of the weekend from some air lifting over what used to be that frontal boundary, and a couple very weak disturbances coming along in the southwesterly air flow over the Northeast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially mid to late afternoon. Highs 90-97 except below 90 along the South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon. Highs 83-90, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 83-90, coolest southern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

High humidity and very warm to hot weather with a thunderstorm threat as a cold front moves into and across the region during August 8. High pressure builds in with fair weather, lower humidity but still moderate, and temperatures near to above normal August 9-11 before humidity and shower chances go up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head through the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry in terms of rainfall.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-3-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

Some summer heat and humidity will be around during this 5 day period, but there are moderating factors and breaks built into this pattern as well. So despite some media making you think otherwise, this won’t be a sustained stretch of weather brutality. In fact, today starts out rather comfortable but it does heat up and the humidity goes up during the day as we get a southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Like many systems this season, this front will struggle to produce much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity (even though guidance in previous days showed otherwise – gee what a surprise!). The areas that do see something can get a downpour with thunder, so be on the look out for that later today / early this evening. That’s outta here tonight and the humidity drops a few notches. With high pressure centered to our north for Wednesday we’ll find ourselves in a more comfortable northerly to easterly air flow and just above everybody staying under 90 for high temps, with coolest on the coast. But the heat and humidity comes back for Thursday as that high center slips to the southeast and turns out the heat pump. That will be the day that most areas will easily exceed 90, and some locations will make a run for the upper 90s. I don’t think we’ll find any triple-digit temperatures that day, however, and most record high temperatures for the date will stand unbroken. We’ll have to watch for a batch of thunderstorms coming out of NY State late in the day or the evening but those are likely to run out of steam before having much of an impact on our region. If anything does make it into the WHW forecast area, it would be the northwesterly portions (central MA and southwestern NH) late-day or evening. More likely our shower and thunderstorm threat will be on Friday as a cold front moves into and slowly across the region. That day will still also be quite humid and rather warm to hot. The front will push through by early Saturday and my current thoughts for that day allow for lingering showers near the South Coast early in the day, otherwise high pressure providing drier weather, less heat, and moderate to high humidity (but a bit lower than Friday) to start the first weekend of August. We may have to deal with some cloudiness however with the front sitting not too far to the south.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible west to east late afternoon to early evening. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An slight chance of an evening thunderstorm well north and west of Boston. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Highs 81-88, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

The front just to the south likely dissipates by later in the weekend (August 7) so expect some clouds around but dry weather and moderate humidity. Southwesterly air flow provides a shot of heat and humidity and approaching cold front adds a thunderstorm threat for August 8. High pressure should build in behind that with fair weather, modest humidity, and temperatures near to above normal August 9-11, maybe a bit hotter by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head into the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-2-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

August opens with a disturbance passing by to our south, but close enough that it has brought a few periods of rain to the South Coast region and some showers to the north of there. It’s no drought-buster by any stretch, far from it, but any raindrops are welcomed right now. Our problem is, we haven’t been able to string together several beneficial events in this part of the country of late, and that pattern is going to continue, as it looks right now, for some time into August. But first, focusing on the month’s first 5 days, we see that disturbance exit today, replaced later by weak high pressure and partial clearing, modest humidity, and not too hot a day to open the month. The high shifts offshore Tuesday as a low pressure trough and weak cold front approach. This allows it to be very warm and more humid Tuesday, along with a shower and thunderstorm chance mainly later in the day. This boundary passes by and a new high pressure area takes hold Wednesday. This day will feature lower humidity but still very warm to hot air. As that high slides offshore by Thursday, this is when we can expect our hottest weather for the week with many areas easily exceeding 90 for high temps and some areas reaching the middle to upper 90s. As far as any thunderstorm chances go on Thursday, we’ll have to watch for the development of a line or cluster of storms to the west of the WHW forecast area that afternoon, closer to an approaching trough of low pressure, to see if it can manage to survive into parts of the region by later in the day or in the evening. By Friday, that trough of low pressure takes the edge of the high heat, but it still will be a very warm to hot and humid day, and add to that a better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches.

TODAY: Clouds most dominant morning, less so afternoon. Periods of rain early in the day South Coast region with scattered to isolated showers elsewhere, diminishing through the morning. Additional showers or drizzle South Coast this afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms west to east mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 86-93. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An evening thunderstorm possible favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly north and west of Boston. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

The front that approaches late week will be moving out of the region during the first part of the August 6-7 weekend but may be close enough for lingering showers South Coast to start the weekend and a potential return of those showers by the end of the weekend, otherwise most areas look dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures and modest humidity. Higher heat/humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm chance August 8 with high pressure offshore and an approaching frontal boundary. If current timing holds, high pressure moves in with slightly drier and seasonably warm weather toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head into the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-1-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

We may be in a drought situation but we’ve been getting some great vacation weather around here this year. Always a price to pay, it seems. With no end in sight to the drought, we do look for any drop of rain we can get, and there are not a lot of drops in the forecast over the next 5 days as we end July and begin August. If you were up early today, temperatures in the 50s greeted you if you went outside, thanks to low humidity, a clear overnight sky, and calm wind, setting up a nice radiational cooling episode. But today with high pressure over us we’ll see about 100% of the possible sun, maybe briefly blotted out by a few fair weather clouds and then filtered by some high clouds this afternoon. We can also enjoy low humidity and light wind with some coastal sea breezes developing. High pressure moves offshore tonight. Monday, low pressure passes south of New England but may be just close enough to bring heavier clouds and perhaps some shower activity to the South Coast before it moves away. Tuesday, humidity spikes ahead of an approaching cold front which brings us the chance of a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or the evening. A new bubble of high pressure via the Great Lakes brings slightly drier air for Wednesday, with fair weather, before it moves offshore and we get a spike of higher heat and humidity for Thursday. While many areas get to 90 or higher that day, some of the astronomical readings guidance has been showing us for many days leading up to this are highly unlikely to occur. The next potential thunderstorm threat can come later Thursday pending the speed of approach of the next cold front and whether or not there is an active pre-frontal trough, which would be the most likely trigger and most likely north and west of Boston. But it’s far too early for any timing / detail.

TODAY: Mainly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast where it can fall back to the 70s. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers South Coast. Partly to mostly sunny elsewhere with most sun further north. Highs 83-90, warmest interior northern MA and southern NH. Dew point passing 60 on its way up. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms late-day or evening, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

This is where my forecast starts to diverge from what medium range guidance shows as I feel most medium range models are performing very poorly. August 5 is a muggy day with a shower / thunderstorm threat as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. High pressure brings warm, dry weather for August 6 into August 7 but an attempt at humidity returning brings clouds back for the end of that weekend eventually leading to a shower / thunderstorm chance around August 8 before another shot of drier air arrives for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal for average, but no extreme heat at least in any prolonged fashion.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry. Basically “typical” August weather in New England.