C-19 Chat Post – September 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

If you have outdoor plans today, you can likely pull them off with no more than the potential for a minor interruption from a passing shower if you are in southeastern MA, and without any interruption anywhere else. Some of our guidance has advertised a more gloom & doom scenario making it look like at least a partial wash-out for today with that wave of low pressure. These forecasts will not be accurate and even some of those models have now backed off and are showing a more reasonable solution. How this thing evolves is that the front crawled into the region yesterday, sitting right over our eastern coastal waters now, will be the focus for some redevelopment of showers with the diurnal heating that takes place today. These will be scattered and relatively small, moving northward along the frontal boundary. But as a low pressure circulation to the south gets organized and starts its northward movement, the first thing we will see is that frontal boundary come back to the west, but it’s not going to do so all that quickly. I think any shower activity that occurs will be confined to Cape Cod and parts of southeastern MA through dusk with any other shower activity offshore, and a more widespread area of showers developing west of the low pressure wave, but still to the south of New England. The main impact from this is likely to be during the overnight hours to the sunrise hour of Sunday, with most widespread rainfall in RI and eastern MA, perhaps southeastern NH eventually. But while that frontal boundary has never really been in a hurry to move, the wave of low pressure moving up along it will be cruising at a good clip, and once beyond our latitude it will finally swing that frontal boundary eastward and outta here, and after the iffy start Sunday morning, the rest of the day will feature great weather with incoming dry air – something many of you have been waiting for after several days of higher humidity! It is at this point that we will see a westerly flow take over the weather pattern with some nice dry air in the region for Monday. However, with a trough of low pressure moving through the Northeast, a wave of low pressure is going to be traveling through it, and will bring a warm front / cold front combination across our area Monday night and Tuesday, with again some opportunities for showers. There will be some timing tweaks needed for the fronts and shower threats as we get closer to it. When we reach Wednesday, with the trough still over us but high pressure over the Great Lakes and the surface front having departed, we will receive a delivery of fresh polar air via Canada and it will be a genuine “feel of fall” kind of day.

TODAY: Early morning valley, swamp, and bog fog dissipating by mid morning. Sunniest eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH with variable clouds RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH into afternoon then a cloudier trend all areas by later in the afternoon. Isolated showers this afternoon mainly MA South Coast to South Shore. Humid, especially eastern areas. Highs 71-78. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers during the evening. Numerous to widespread showers overnight. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with lingering showers eastern MA and southeastern NH. Sun and passing clouds from mid morning on. Drying. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of a shower late. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SW to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

There are a lot of uncertainties at play in this portion of the forecast. I remain cautiously optimistic that high pressure will keep us generally dry with the feel of early fall to start, then a bit of a warm-up to follow that. However, there will be some “weather bullies” hanging around outside the “playground”. We’ll need to keep an eye specifically on the evolution of low pressure to the south of New England. Whether tropical or non-tropical, this system could end up further north than much guidance has, and suddenly our fair weather outlook would not be so fair anymore. We also need to keep an eye on tropical activity further out in the Atlantic, not for direct impact but for interactions, and of course ocean / coastal impacts as well. And even by the end of the period the jet stream says “hey don’t forget about me!” and may try to send a disturbance our way.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

A continuation of the same general idea. There are still some high pressure favorings on the guidance, but enough “things that can go wrong” out there. I lean toward the dry pattern but this could very well change.

C-19 Chat Post – September 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

A forecast tweak appears on this update. Up through midday into afternoon Saturday, the expectation remains the same. A slow-moving cold front crossing the region and coming to a stop near the coast. A band of scattered to broken showers (and a few thunderstorms, a couple of which may be strong), take place along this boundary but with a gradual weakening trend as it moves to the east, then a break in the shower activity for the first half of Saturday. The difference is there is a little more emphasis for a ripple of low pressure moving up along the frontal boundary to enhance shower activity again for the region from later in the day Saturday to early morning Sunday from south to north, favoring eastern areas, before a stronger push of drier air arrives. There is still another disturbance to swing through from the west late Sunday / Sunday night with its own chance of shower activity. With all of this, it may sound like a washed-out weekend upcoming, but it is far from that. Just choose your outside times wisely and keep an eye on radar. A shot of cooler Canadian air visits us early next week, with mostly dry weather, but there is the chance of a passing shower with a disturbance coming along in a trough over the region most likely sometime on Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Numerous to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring eastern areas. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy remainder of day with isolated to scattered showers, especially RI and eastern MA. Humid, especially eastern MA and RI. Highs 70-77. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered to numerous showers. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early favoring eastern MA and southeastern NH. Chance of late day showers favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 67-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Cautious optimism that we enter a dry and seasonable pattern, governed by high pressure, but given our recent history, don’t lock this in. There are indications of broad low pressure hanging around to the south of the region which we always have to watch, and tropical activity in the western Atlantic which can also impact the weather pattern, even if systems do not directly impact the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

For now the same idea carries into this period as well. High pressure is indicated as a controller by a lot of guidance, but that doesn’t mean it will hold the entire time with a dry pattern. Stay tuned…

C-19 Chat Post – September 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

High pressure hangs on just enough to today to keep the region’s weather similar to yesterday, even with a little more sun and less shower activity, kind of a taste of late summer weather on this first full day of autumn. Finally, that slow-moving front we’ve been talking about all week pushes in from west to east during Friday with more numerous showers and a few heavier downpours and even rumbles of thunder possible, but the overall area of rainfall should be undergoing a weakening trend as it moves through, so I’m not looking for prolonged heavy rain / flooding issues with this particular system. The frontal boundary itself will be very slow to exit the coastal areas where there is still a chance of a few showers early Saturday, but overall the weekend should be on the dry side between that front and the approach of a swirl of low pressure via the Great Lakes. That feature does increase our shower chances again later Sunday, especially later in the day or at night, before exiting Monday with dry weather again.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Brief passing showers possible, mainly this afternoon favoring RI and eastern CT through interior MA and southwestern NH. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of a passing shower. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring eastern areas. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers from RI and eastern-southeastern MA to the NH Seacoast. Humid eastern areas, drying to the west. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly late-day favoring western areas. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 67-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

A trough will be moving across the region the last few days of September with a disturbance bringing shower chances mainly later September 28 into part of September 29 based on current timing. High pressure is expected to build in with fair weather for the start of October along with more seasonably cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

This remains a lower-than-average confidence forecast with major differences in guidance, but for now staying with the idea of high pressure dominant with a fairly dry and seasonable to mild weather pattern.

C-19 Chat Post – September 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

An area of high pressure centered east of New England and south of the Canadian Maritime Provinces will deliver warm and humid air to our region the next few days. There will be only a minimal chance of a passing shower from time to time through Thursday from the tropical moisture feed, and a more widespread shower episode will take place as a slow-moving cold front enters the region from the west Thursday night and creeps eastward through Friday night, finally making it just offshore by the weekend, but close enough that a shower threat lingers near eastern coastal areas Saturday. Another disturbance approaching from the west brings another scattered shower threat from the west by the end of the weekend…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower favoring interior locations in the afternoon. More humid. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 59-66. Wind S 5-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower mainly well inland during the afternoon. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers especially overnight. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring eastern areas. Patchy fog. Slightly less humid. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower favoring eastern coastal areas. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly late-day favoring western areas. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Watch for shower chances early September 27, later September 28 into early September 29 with passing disturbances / fronts. The temperature trend will be cooling.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Still not a high confidence forecast going out in time but leaning toward high pressure being the dominant player with a fairly dry and seasonable pattern in early October.

C-19 Chat Post – September 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure slides offshore east of New England today and tries to hold on but gradually loses its grip through midweek. The air flow around the high and ahead of a slowly approaching trough from the west will be southeast to south, allowing the humidity and shower chances to increase, although the chance of any rainfall for one specific location at any given time will still be quite low through the daylight hours of Thursday. It is when the frontal system associated with the trough from the west gets closer that the shower chance will increase to more likely and more widespread, and right now the timing of this is favoring later Thursday night through the middle of the day Friday. Again there remains some differences in fairly reliable guidance, with some moving the showers out by late Friday and at least one model holding the shower threat in our region into the start of the weekend. Leaning toward the drying trend late Friday. This is a more optimistic outlook for drier weather for Saturday, but not high confidence.

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear early. Variably cloudy late evening and overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower favoring interior locations in the afternoon. More humid. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 59-66. Wind S 5-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower mainly well inland during the afternoon. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers especially overnight. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Based on the low confidence at the end of the 5-day period the confidence in this portion of the outlook remains low as well. Current idea is that a trough from the west and accompanying cold front will bring a shower chance on September 26 then drier and cooler weather September 27-28. After that we have to keep an eye out for a bit of a blocking pattern with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south or southwest. Assuming this pattern evolves, whether we are on the drier side with high pressure in control or wetter side with the low pressure area in control remains to be seen. So the end-of-month weather is highly uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

This forecast segment also remains low confidence as we’ve seen a couple different scenarios depicted by guidance during the last few days for early October. The idea previously was for more westerly flow. Today’s guidance suggests a continuation of a slower-moving blocked type pattern. For now I’m leaning toward the west-to-east flow idea over the slower movement setup, with high pressure in control more often than not, with fairly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – September 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

High pressure will be the dominant force in our weather through Wednesday, and at least into if not all the way through Thursday too. As the high center, which is just to the north of our area now, slides offshore toward midweek, the transition will be from low dew point weather with cool nights and mild days early week to a more humid southerly air flow by midweek. The biggest weather question remains the timing of the next trough and frontal system from the west. At one point, guidance was aiming at Wednesday / Thursday for this, and as we’ve gotten a little closer the guidance remains spread on timing with the quickest model bringing the most rainfall through the region Thursday, and the slowest guidance indicating most of the rainfall will occur later Friday through Friday night. For this update, I am making no changes in the timing from yesterday’s post, but don’t be surprised if additional tweaks are going to be needed. For now, just “reserve” late Thursday through Friday as the potential unsettled time period. Rewinding back a bit, a reminder that summer ends and fall arrives with the autumnal equinox at 3:20 p.m. EDT Wednesday September 20, and back a bit more, look for the rise of the full Harvest Moon tonight just after 7 p.m., reaching it’s “peak fullness” at 7:55 p.m. as it sits low in the eastern sky on its rise and will light the landscape brightly all night.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except patches of ground fog forming in lowest elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations again. Lows 55-62. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 68-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

The weekend forecast depends highly on the speed of the frontal system moving in late this week and how quickly it departs the region. Leaning toward the potential for early showers September 25 with the departure of that system on the slower side, and late-day showers September 26 with the approach of the next one from the west, with rain-free weather for the bulk of the weekend in between. Still adjustments are likely to be needed. Potentially unsettled weather into September 27 and one more shower threat near the end of the period as we start a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

More west-to-east flow is expected, with a bit more northwesterly flow possible, which means minor shower threats with passing fronts and an overall cooling trend. With uncertainties in the pattern leading up to this, this is still a low confidence forecast at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – September 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

High pressure builds into our region today then hangs around for 5 days. Currently favoring a slower-changing pattern so high pressure once it moves from just north of to just east of the area should be able to hold fair weather in place for this entire 5-day period. The autumnal equinox occurs at 3:20 p.m. Wednesday.

TODAY: Early clouds southern and eastern areas otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

A trough from the west should arrive September 24 with shower chances. High pressure attempts to build in behind this for the September 25-26 weekend but with the trough still nearby and weakening we may end up in a mild to warm southerly air flow rather than a drier westerly one. This leaves the end of the period less certain as guidance now shows dry weather where it showed unsettled weather yesterday, so will re-evaluate this going forward..

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

The overall weather pattern should feature a general west-to-east flow but with the uncertainty at the end of the period before this, the timing of any systems beyond that is also uncertain. Still eyeing a quick cool-down somewhere during this time.

C-19 Chat Post – September 19 2021