DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A disturbance moves through the region today with lots of clouds and some snow showers as the air continues to trend colder. The best chance of snow showers will be south and west of Boston where a small accumulation may occur. This energy will ignite an ocean storm south and east of New England which will pull even colder air in tonight. A broad low pressure area will track north of the region Thursday and Friday pushing a warm front through the region Thursday followed by a cold front on Friday. A tiny bit of light snow may occur with the warn front but most of the energy and moisture for that will pass to our north, and then the cold front may be good for a rain or snow shower Friday as it turns briefly milder between the two fronts. Once the cold front is through, it’s dry and windy for the coming weekend along with the coldest air we’ve had for quite some time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston where a coating to 1/2 inch may accumulate. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with brief very light snow possible northern MA and southern NH. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible, mainly afternoon and west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW late in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

While there is some uncertainty remaining regarding the passage of a storm system in the late January 25 to early January 27 time frame, odds favor this system passing far enough south for little or even no impact, with generally cold and dry weather being dominant throughout this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

The pattern seems stubborn to watch to change much, and while there is another “window-of-opportunity” around January 30-31 where we need to watch for a possible storm system, again odds favor more dry weather to dominate as we go from January to early February, perhaps with a temperature moderation getting underway.

C-19 Chat Post – January 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

The next 3 days will show a cooling trend as a couple disturbances in a west northwesterly air flow bring only minor snow shower threats but serve to bring in colder air from Canada. We may moderate slightly on Friday ahead of a cold front which will arrive by evening and introduce even colder air by the weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Late-day snow showers, especially west of Boston. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

Dry/cold January 24 as high pressure builds just north of the region. Watching for a storm threat in the later January 25 to early January 27 time-frame as low pressure likely passes to the south of our area, but uncertain on how close it will be. Dry/cold for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Still a lot of uncertainty in the overall pattern though still leaning toward a weakened blocking pattern but weather that is mostly on the dry side with a cold start and then a possible moderating trend.

C-19 Chat Post – January 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

Today will be the mildest day of the week before we start a colder trend. Don’t look for an arctic blast though. This will be a gradual process as the large scale features shift to a allow a little more cold into the Northeast than we have seen for the entire month so far. The weather pattern will still be active, but quiet. How is that possible? Active but quiet? Yes. About 3 disturbances will pass by, one today, one later Tuesday to early Wednesday, and another Thursday, but none of them will result in any meaningful precipitation. That is how we can be active but quiet. 🙂

TODAY (MLK JR. DAY): More sun than clouds morning. More clouds than sun with a risk of a passing light rain or snow shower during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower in the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Blocking continues. Colder, dry weather is expected for the January 23-24 weekend. There is a storm threat in the January 25-27 window but it is too soon to know any detail.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Blocking may weaken or break down. Will have to watch for additional storm threat, but odds favor cold/dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

Many times we talk about a “break in the action” in reference to a short quiet period of weather in the middle of an active stormy pattern, but this time we had the opposite, a short-lived stormy period, i.e., one important storm system moving through yesterday, and now it’s back to a quiet pattern in which only minor disturbances cause minimal precipitation chances but otherwise it remains generally dry. The blocking pattern we’ve been in now for about a week will remain in place. The difference this time is it adjusts itself enough to allow a trend to colder weather here – not the brutal cold that much of Asia & Europe have seen in recent days, but a trend to a near to below normal temperature pattern.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Blocking continues. A weak system may produce a few snow showers early in the period. We will watch for a storm system to survive a little better as it approaches later in the period, but it’s far too soon to have any certainty on this threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

Jury’s out on blocking. We may see it weaken or even break down, although odds still favor seasonably cold to slightly colder than normal and on the drier side. It’s a very low confidence outlook and will continue to monitor the pattern drivers.

C-19 Chat Post – January 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

In comparison to our weather over the last few weeks, this is a pretty wild day, starting out with moderate to heavy rainfall and some decent wind. The passing potent low pressure area causing this is the exception to the rule of what will continue to be a fairly benign pattern going forward. Upon the passage of this low, which will cut northeastward across New England today, will arrive drier air once again that will be with us into the middle of the coming week. So, as of the writing of this blog update, a few more hours of rain at most, ending from southwest to northeast by the early afternoon. An additional passing rain shower is possible during the afternoon, and an even lesser risk that a stray snow shower makes it into the WHW forecast area tonight as colder air arrives in the wake of the departing low pressure area. A few rain/snow showers may cross the region on Monday (MLK Jr. Day) as some of the lingering energy from the original low pressure area crosses the Northeast. The next energy looks like it is going to be kept from organizing and also held mostly to the south as our blocking pattern goes on, so heading into the middle of next week the most we’d see is some clouds and a few snow showers as it will be colder at that time.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with rain, heavy at times, and a slight chance of thunder. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind ESE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH morning, shifting to S 5-15 MPH midday then SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts again later in the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Blocking continues. Minor, weak systems may produce a few snow showers at times as the overall temperatures will average near to below normal. It doesn’t look like any organized storm systems will impact the region at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Blocking may weaken. This change may allow for a better chance of being impacted by a more organized low pressure area sometime during this period, but that is far from certain. The odds still favor a drier pattern overall.

C-19 Chat Post – January 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Very little wind allowed low level moisture to hang around overnight with lots of clouds, but the temperature slipping below freezing in many locations has resulted in some black ice formation where surfaces did not dry off from yesterday’s precipitation, so be aware of that if venturing outside this morning! As the morning goes on we will see the temperature rise sufficiently to eliminate this problem, and enough dry air work in from a small high pressure area to the north of us to bring some sun today. A broad area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will send an occluding frontal system our way on which a new low will form and move over the region Saturday morning and midday. This will result in a solid area of rainfall, not that wide, but moderate to heavy, moving across the region from the pre-dawn hours to the midday hours of Saturday, before a dry slot moves in during the afternoon to put an end to the wet weather. A period of moderate and gusty southeasterly winds will take place with the rainfall, so driving will be a little bit of a challenge Saturday morning before conditions improve. A drier, colder westerly wind will evolve after the low’s passage, and snow showers will be occurring in the mountains to our west with only the slight chance that a few of them survive in snow flurry form into the WHW forecast area Saturday night. Expect a dry and chilly day Sunday with a gusty westerly breeze, and similar conditions for Monday, Dr. MLK Jr. Day, with the addition of a snow or rain shower risk a low pressure trough moves across the region. Another small area of high pressure should provide fair and chilly weather Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun and cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives west to east toward dawn. Lows 30-37 evening, rising toward 40 overnight. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH evening, increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas overnight.

SATURDAY: Overcast into midday with rain, possibly heavy at times. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SSE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH morning, shifting to SW 5-15 MPH midday then W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts again later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (DR. MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

What we know: Blocking pattern continues. What we don’t know for sure: Day-to-day details. Best guess on sensible weather: Best storm chance January 22-23, but may be a smaller system if one forms ahead of it offshore on January 20, which is quite possible. This could result in the second system being weaker and further south. Still much to iron out.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Biggest question here: Status of blocking pattern – does it stay in place, weaken, or break down? Still working on that. Because of this uncertainty and normal uncertainty at medium range, can’t get detailed, but can say that expected indices are more indicative of near to below normal temperatures and leaning slightly drier versus stormy at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – January 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

A disturbance passing through the region today will result in a very minor precipitation event with a touch of rain and snow at times, but with surface temperatures above freezing, any snow that falls will not cause any issues. Drier weather moves back in tonight and Friday as a small area of high pressure noses into the region. A large area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region on Friday will send an occluding frontal system toward the East Coast late Friday into Saturday, on which a new low pressure area will form and bring some enhanced rainfall into the region to start the 3-day weekend. This will move out later Saturday and be followed by drier weather for Sunday before the energy associated with the original low pressure area comes across the region Monday, along with colder air, with the potential for some scattered snow shower activity on Dr. MLK Jr. Day.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few periods of light rain & snow likely. Highs 35-42. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thin out. Lows 29-36. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning and midday. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (DR. MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

We will still be under the influence of a blocking pattern and as has been the case for some time, anything beyond a few days is rather low confidence. So outside of knowing that the blocking pattern goes on, the day-to-day details are nearly impossible to even approach. Recent guidance has shown two potential storm systems, but I’d lean toward January 22-23 as being the “best” opportunity for a storm to impact the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Weakening and possible breaking down of the blocking pattern should begin during this period which may increase our risk for a couple of low pressure impacts as a southern storm track shifts a little bit more to the north. Still low confidence but feel this is the most likely scenario at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – January 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

The quiet stretch of weather continues for another 3 days, although we have a tiny bit to watch for Thursday as low pressure passing well south of us will be raced by a disturbance passing through here, and their distant connection may help generate a bit of light rain and snow in our area. Finally a more potent system will make its way into the Northeast Friday night and Saturday, first as a broad area of low pressure entering the Great Lakes, and as its frontal system nears the East Coast we’ll see a new low form on it. There should be enough mild air around that the meaningful precipitation from this system falls as rain during the morning and midday hours of Saturday, based on current timing. While the exact track of that low is not nailed down yet, it should be close to or right over southeastern New England, and assuming it’s not moving more slowly than currently expected, we should see a drier end to Saturday, along with more wind, as snow showers stack up in the mountains west and north of our region. Probably should not rule out a stray snow shower making it into the WHW forecast area Saturday night. Sunday, expect a chilly day with a gusty wind but fair weather as low pressure drifts away via the Maritime Provinces of Canada and a sliver of high pressure approaches from the west.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period or two of very light rain and/or snow possible. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning and midday. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Lingering low pressure in the Great Lakes region finally moves eastward through New England while a storm generates offshore, but probably too far offshore for direct impact here on Monday (Dr. MLK Jr. Day), leaving our region with just a chance of snow showers with seasonably cold air. Blocking pattern continues and chilly/dry weather should dominate the middle of next week with any additional disturbances passing to the south, but we may need to watch for an approaching low pressure area by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Still low confidence, but a bit more indication that we’ll start to see the blocking pattern break down, or at least weaken. Watching for potential storm systems to impact the region to start the period, and again late in the period.