7:38PM

Unsettled pattern! This will be highlighted by a complex storm arriving late Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday with a combination of precipitation across southeastern New England. Lingering unsettled weather is expected after this, through the upcoming weekend, though this time we may escape a weekend storm threat for a change.

The focus for now will be on the upcoming storm, as it will have the most impact this week. It will be evolving as a big upper level low pressure area and surface system, with a sprawling warm front trying to push northward into New England later Tuesday into Wednesday but getting stuck, allowing cold air to hold on. The bulk of the precipitation will likely fall as rain along the immediate coast and across southeastern MA, but inland, and especially areas north and west of Boston, snow is expected at least at the start of the event late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A rain/snow line should push northwestward during the storm on Wednesday, but it may have a tough time doing so over areas well northwest of  Boston and especially higher elevations, and even closer to I-95 if precipitation comes down heavy enough. We also have to watch interior valleys where cold air may be trapped at surfaces, allowing icing to take place when rain starts to fall. I’m still not sure where exact transitions will take place and when, but this will be given a first guess in this forecast and tweaked as needed through the event.

Once we get to Thursday, milder air should have overtaken all levels so that we are seeing scattered areas of rain for the first half of the day, but as upper level low pressure drifts overhead, the upper levels will cool enough that some snowflakes may mix back in at times by later in the day. Not expecting any significant snowfall from this part of the system.

The first 3 days of March will likely feature lots of clouds, maybe some spotty rain or snow showers Friday with less of a chance of these over the weekend. Though some guidance suggest more sunshine by the weekend, I’m going to remain on the pessimistic side for now, and forecast clouds to dominate, along with below normal temperatures. This will probably continue into early next week as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 22-32 interior to coast. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partial sun morning then becoming mostly cloudy again. Highs around 40. Wind light variable becoming E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation developing toward dawn as mix/snow inland, mix/rain coast, rain Cape Cod. Lows upper 20s well northwest of Boston to middle 30s Cape Cod. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Islands.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain coast and southeastern MA, mix of rain/snow possibly alternating from just west to just north of  Boston, snow/mix further to the northwest may become more rain during the day. Some snow accumulation, up to several inches, possible but mainly well northwest of Boston. Highs 33-43 from northwest to southeast. Wind E to ESE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with numerous rain showers changing to scattered snow showers. Low 33. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow or rain showers. Low 32. High 39.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 41.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 27. High 44.

10:18PM

And now the slow wind-down of a long, drawn-out, complex weekend storm system comes as snow gradually tapers off from northwest to southeast as of the writing of this blog late Sunday evening. After all of it, not a whole lot of snow fell in much of the forecast area, but amounts did build up to greater than 6 inches in parts of north central MA into southern NH, with some double-digit snowfall amounts further north in east central NH into Maine.

During the overnight hours as the final flakes end and the clouds break, watch for some freezing of newly fallen wet snow and slush. Icy spots on untreated surfaces will develop overnight and last through much of Monday morning. Monday itself will be a nice day with sun & some clouds as low pressure moves away and high pressure builds in. This high will hold on into Tuesday before giving way to approaching low pressure late  Tuesday into Wednesday. Enough cold air will be in place so that some snow falls in north central MA, interior northeastern MA, and southern NH  Tuesday night into Wednesday. But eventually milder air will take over so that rain falling elsewhere will overtake the snow areas as well. The problem is that cold enough air may be trapped at the surface over inland areas, resulting in a set up for icing. This storm system will lead into a long period of unsettled weather as February ends and March begins. It’s hard to time precipitation and specifics on movement and strength of disturbances this far away. That will be fine tuned as the week goes on.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Snow ends, clouds break, icy areas develop. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind light N to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs around 40. Wind light variable to E.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix/snow interior northeastern MA into southern NH away from coast eventually changing to rain but possibly freezing rain if cold air remains trapped, with rain elsewhere. Low 28. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 33. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 31. High 38.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Low 30. High 37.

9:02AM

What happens today…

Cold works southward, as does a rain/snow line, across a precipitation area that will be fed through this evening by an inverted trough between offshore low pressure and an old storm to our north. Steadiest and heaviest precipitation will occur from the Boston area northward, and these areas will also see snow the longest as it is already snowing in many areas outside I-495 as of 8AM. As mentioned above, change of rain to snow is expected in other areas with time, lastly in RI and southeastern MA. All of it pulls east and out to sea tonight.

What happens this coming week…

2 decent days to start the week, then a long stretch of unsettled weather which will include a wet Wednesday (white for some briefly?) and a colder trend later in the week with episodes of mix/snow. More on this with The Week Ahead post this evening!

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Overcast. Mix/snow far NW of Boston and rain elsewhere (lightest in southeastern MA and RI) all turning back to snow but taking several hours to do this from north to south. Snow may be moderate to heavy in some sections north of Boston into southern NH (not everywhere!). Temperatures cooling through the 30s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, strongest along the coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast through midnight with snow continuing, steadiest from Boston northward, all ending from west to east by shortly after midnight, followed by breaking clouds. Snow accumulations from today through tonight (NOT including what fell in some areas Saturday), traces Cape Cod / Islands through RI except 1 or 2 inches possible northern RI across interior southeastern MA up to about the Mass Pike, and from around 2 to as much as 5 inches anywhere north of there (keep the range in mind, not the top #), and a few greater than 5 inch amounts possible especially parts of northern Middlesex County and Essex County of MA into southern NH (not everywhere will see this either!!). Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny day. Cloudy at night with snow/mix/rain developing late. Low 22. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain north, rain to rain showers south. Low 33. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 32. High 41.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

10:15AM

I thought of titling this “Storm Fizzles” or something, but that would be a lie. A storm cannot fizzle that hasn’t even really developed yet. This would be an inaccurate description. What is going on (short answer), is we are not seeing a merging of 2 streams of energy as model forecasts and sensible meteorology had steered me (and most of us) to conclude. As is usual, I tried to hold back on numbers until at most 48 hours out from what I considered to be the start of the event later today (hence first numbers posted late Thursday). These numbers are going to end up too high. I made one adjustment yesterday when reliable guidance and other signs were suggesting the new storm would be weaker and a bit further offshore. And as those trends continued to the point it’s now apparent that we’ll be dealing with a much weaker system, there will be further adjustment. That said, it’s not like I’m expecting a few snow flurries. It still is going to snow this weekend in a good portion of southeastern New England, and this snow may linger for quite a few hours into Sunday night as an elongated upper level disturbance traverses the region.

Beyond this, we will still see a tranquil break to start the new week on Monday into Tuesday, followed by a long stretch of unsettled weather. This appears to want to evolve as a very large scale and complex upper level trough or closed off low pressure area, and a series of surface disturbances resulting. Lots of puzzle pieces sitting out there with set up of large and smaller scale systems, temperature profiles, etc. – so the approach here will be to come at it carefully and not try to tell too much too soon. I’ll make a first decent stab at this in  Sunday night’s “The Week Ahead” post. For now, forecast wording beyond Monday will be very generalized.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain and snow (snow mainly interior MA and southern NH). Highs around 40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain coast and south of Boston, mix/snow elsewhere. Little snow accumulation. Lows 30-36. Wind NE up to 15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Steadier precipitation mainly rain/mix South Coast of RI & MA including Cape Cod & Islands, mix to snow interior RI and southeastern MA, snow elsewhere, continuing into the evening before eventually tapering off. Snow accumulations by the end of the event at night: Nothing to coatings closer to the South Coast, Cape Cod, Islands, building to 1-3 inches interior RI & southeastern MA and just inland from the coast from Boston north, 3-5 inches further northwest especially north of the Mass Pike and along and outside Route 495, with isolated 6 inch amounts still possible in higher elevations. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N up to 20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH coast.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 36. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 40.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 29. High 37.

5:48PM

Yes it’s still coming, despite some of you hearing over-reacting media saying one thing then another then back and forth again like a bungee cord holding a rock spray painted with the word “hype”. I hate to bust on the media but it just gets frustrating sometimes. Oh well. Enough rant and now onto the weather… 🙂

It looks like the developing storm will be a little weaker than previously expected, but still fully capable of throwing a moderate amount of precipitation across the forecast area, with a large area of it seeing several inches of heavy, wet snow, especially Saturday night and Sunday. This will still potentially impact the region with busted tree limbs and power lines, and will also be tough to move around (at least it’s not a foot plus of the heavy stuff). Areas most likely to be snow longest and see most of the accumulation will be away from the immediate coast and along and north of the Mass Pike. The overall idea of the storm and timing are still there, just to a little lesser degree than described in the last blog entry. Though minor coastal flooding issues may take places on east-facing shores Saturday night and north-facing shores Sunday morning, I’m not expecting anything too significant.

Still looks like a break early in the week between the weekend event and what may be a long-duration winter weather event as we head toward the beginning of March. I’ll discuss this a little more over the weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows from 20 southern NH and interior MA valleys to 30 coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Precipitation developing late in the day – mainly snow near and north of the Mass Pike except mix/rain immediate coast, mainly mix/rain to the south. Highs 35-40. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow northern areas, rain/mix to the south eventually turning to snow and may be slow to taper off during Sunday night. Accumulation of snow from under 1 inch Nantucket and outer Cape Cod to around 1 inch coastal RI and remainder of Cape Cod, 1-3 inches remainder of southern MA and central RI, 2-4 inches northern RI with isolated higher amounts possible in higher elevations, 3-6 inches across the balance of east central to northeastern MA into southern NH with a few 2 inch amounts immediate coast and a few 6+ inch amounts possible mainly in higher elevations interior MA and southern NH. Temperatures generally in the 30s. Wind backing from E to N averaging 10-20 MPH, some higher gusts possible mainly Cape Cod and the Islands.

MONDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Low 25. High 38.

TUESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Low 20. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix possible. Low 32. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Few rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix possible. Low 30. High 36.

6:26PM

As I heard someone say earlier, we’re going to hit the Weekend Trifecta in regards to winter storms. We are not hitting any trifecta with computer models, as the 3 main ones are in great disagreement only 48 hours out from the storm. So, as I did previously, I’m sticking closer to the one most consistent and proven most accurate in recent events (though it has made some adjustments on the latest run which I am taking into account).

Before we get to the storm, we first have what’s left of a windy/cold Thursday to finish off and the winds will finally slacken as the night goes on and we’ll end up with a mostly clear and cold night, leading into a pleasant, bright, and chilly Friday (sometimes referred to as a “weather breeder day” or more commonly known as “the calm before the storm”). Whatever nature is breeding will be coming in lazily on Saturday in the form of a cloudy sky at first. The process taking place will be a  primary storm moving northeastward into the Great Lakes and a secondary storm being born on the Mid Atlantic Coast. The track of this secondary storm will be the key in determining how much precipitation falls, the positioning and movement of a rain/snow line, and ultimately the end result in terms of snowfall amounts. Whatever happens, I do not expect a whole lot of snow to be on the ground before midnight Saturday night. The bulk of the precipitation, in whatever form, will take place Sunday morning (in the 12 hours between midnight and noon), with it all winding down during Sunday afternoon and evening. With decent confidence I will say that heaviest snow amounts will take place north of the Mass Pike. I think spotty precipitation will take place any time from later Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening before growing steadier. Where rain is mostly is along and south of the Mass Pike and especially close to the coastal areas. As steadier precipitation gets underway later at night, this rain/snow line will be tough to determine and will become a now-casting situation, but what I expect is that it will hang on right along the South Shore of MA and across Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly coastal RI as well. Some mixing is possible in an area between this and an all snow area mainly along and north of Route 2. Eventually the rain/snow line will collapse to the southeast and areas that are raining will turn to snow. The amount of snow in these areas will depend on the timing of the change to snow. Taking all this into account and sticking to my general rule of not putting out snow #’s until about 48 hours prior to the start of an event, I will issue a best guess on final accumulations here…and keep in mind this will not fall all at once, it is a total amount of snow expected from the onset of spotty precipitation Saturday to the end of snow on Sunday night. Amounts may be nothing like what fell in the blizzard 2 weeks prior, but impact could be greater since it will be a heavier, wetter snow, tougher to move and more conducive to producing damage to trees and power lines. Accumulations expected from the Saturday night through Sunday evening event: 1-3 inches Cape Cod and the islands and right on the coastline of RI and Plymouth County MA, 3-6 inches elsewhere south of the Mass Pike, 6-9 inches north of the Mass Pike including southern NH, with isolated 10+ inches mainly in higher elevations.

A break comes Monday as the weekend storm will be gone and the atmosphere will be in the process of thinking about what to do with us for the end of February and to welcome March. I hear that it may be thinking about hiring a lion for the party… More later!

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 17-26, coldest inland valleys. Wind NW to N diminishing to around 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40,  coolest in the hills northwest of Boston. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Mostly cloudy late. Lows 20-26. Wind light E.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Cloudy afternoon with spotty light rain or snow. Highs 35-42, mildest Cape Cod area. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to NE late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation becoming steadier, light to moderate early, moderate to heavy overnight, mostly rain/mix south of the Mass Pike, mix/snow to the north. Rain/snow line may move southeastward rapidly toward dawn. Temperatures falling slowly, mainly middle to lower 30s, some upper 20s well north and west of Boston. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH especially along the coast. Some coastal flooding possible east-facing shores around the 10PM high tide.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix becoming all snow, possibly heavy at times morning, tapering off in the afternoon and evening (see expected snow amounts above). Temperatures steady mainly upper 20s to lower 30s northwest to southeast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH especially along the coast. Some coastal flooding possible at north-facing shores late morning high tide.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow/mix/rain at night. Low 25. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix likely. Low 32. High 36.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Mix/snow likely. Low 30. High 34.

7:32AM

Quick forecast update for now – full discussion later today.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain late. Low 22. High 40.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Mix/snow ending late. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 22. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers. Low 31. High 42.

2:12AM

A milder day Tuesday ended with a decent slug of rain across southeastern New England. This is now gone and upper level low pressure will slide west to east across the area today and Thursday, along with the passage of a secondary surface cold front during today. This front, along with the upper low hanging around, may result in a few snow showers, and will also be responsible for delivering a new cold air mass to the region. High pressure will make Friday a more tranquil late winter day, setting the stage for another probable weekend storm, the details of which are not quite yet known. That said, there is some potential for another significant snow event in at least parts of southern New England, especially Sunday. Fair weather returns early  next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy – sun dominating morning and clouds dominating afternoon. Scattered snow showers, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 34-39. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers.  Lows 20-25. Wind W 10-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy – clouds dominating morning, sun dominating afternoon. Isolated snow showers, mainly in the morning. Highs 31-36. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 40.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow afternoon, heavier at night. Low 27. High 40.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Mix/snow likely. Low 30. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 22. High 41.

7:23AM

Making a few changes to timing and a minor forecast tweak, which is the reason for this update. Highlights include…

* Low pressure passing north of the area tonight/Wednesday with enough warm air for a rain event mainly tonight.

* 2 cold fronts passing on Wednesday, the second possibly producing snow showers as cold air returns.

* Unsettled weekend but precipitation may hold off until Saturday night and Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 42-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH early shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, may be briefly moderate to heavy, ending west to east by around or shortly after midnight (a bit later Cape Cod). Breaking clouds west to east after the rain. Lows 32-37. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Temperatures steady 32-37. Wind W 15-30 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 36.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain at night. Low 24. High 38.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 28. High 34.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

4:42PM

The strong wind behind the departing ocean storm continued to blow on Presidents Day Monday which was otherwise a very bright day. They will relax during tonight and shift to south, only to increase again on Tuesday, but this time blowing milder air into the region. Approaching low pressure will throw clouds in, but it appears that precipitation will hold off until later in the day when it should have warmed sufficiently for rain in the region. This will mean a wet but mild Tuesday night before the low’s cold front passes by, and returns a chilly wind to the region for midweek. Still watching the end of the week for a return to unsettled weather and potential for another storm to develop and impact the region.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain late in the day from west to east. Highs 40-45. Wind S increasing to 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, may end as a mix or snow briefly especially inland areas toward dawn. Lows 32-37. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-37. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 16. High 34.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 24. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow early. Low 32. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

10:19PM

Powerful winds have been blowing across southeastern New England during Sunday night behind the departing beast of a storm that exploded just offshore, close enough for light to locally moderate snow and just too far offshore to really dump on the region. There have been some lingering bands of snow near the coast of Cape Ann and Cape Cod MA during the evening hours but these will be moving out overnight. The clouds will depart too, and when the sun rises on Presidents Day Monday, the wind will still be with us, maybe not with the ferocity of the night preceding it, but still strong and gusty. This will create the continuation of blowing and some drifting of the snow that fell on Sunday. It will also be pretty chilly for mid February, with a mid winter feel to the air including a low wind chill. Winds finally slacken at night as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves overhead, but this gets out of the way for the passage of low pressure on Tuesday. This low will be minor in nature, and occurring with milder conditions will result in more rain than mix/snow, though some frozen precipitation may start it and end it, especially over interior areas. As we get to mid week, upper level low pressure will hang around and bring colder air back in, especially by Thursday. Mostly dry weather will also dominate for Wednesday and Thursday. By the time we reach the end of the week, there are signs of a prolonged precipitation event from late Friday into the weekend, the details of which won’t be known for a few days.

I’d also like to take a moment to tell you about a new Facebook page called New England Regional Weather Service. It is run by a staff of 6 from Lyndon State College in Vermont, including one of the regular blog participants here, Scott. If you are on Facebook, please check it out!

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows ranging from around 10 suburbs to 20 on outer Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH. Wind chill often around or below zero. Blowing and drifting snow.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-30 MPH and gusty. Additional blowing snow.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding up in the morning. Chance of light snow/mix mainly well north and west of Boston midday. Chance of rain elsewhere mostly the mid to late afternoon hours. Highs reaching around 40. Wind S increasing to 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 37.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 16. High 34.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 24. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow early. Low 32. High 40.

3:03AM original discussion

11:59AM edit for time period and final snow amounts

You know that classic video game, Pac-Man? Think of Pac-Man as the dry air coming in from the north and west, eating away at the edges of the developing ocean monster. This has been the basis of the sharp drop off in forecast snow totals as you move inland away from the coast. We’ve been seeing this play out in the early stages of part 2 of the weekend snow event, as dry air has been making it very difficult for snow from the leftover frontal snow band to reach the ground, and will continue to do so with the western flank of the developing storm. The moisture will finally become enough to throw accumulating snow into the region, but again with a very sharp gradient. There is basically no change to the amounts posted in the last update, though with the dry air in play, it’s possible that a few of these amounts may not be reached. The wind will be a more significant factor in the storm, with gusts in the 45-55 MPH range from the north to northwest as the storm bombs out over the water while passing not that far east of New England. The strong and gusty winds will continue through Sunday night and well into Presidents Day Monday before relaxing. Dry air which completely takes over and shuts the snow off during Sunday afternoon (lastly on Cape Cod where some ocean-effect snow will linger) will dominate the region Sunday night through Monday.

The next weather system arrives Tuesday with a chance of some light snow/mix/rain and as it wraps up in eastern Canada it drags more cold air for midweek which will also be windy.

Watching yet another low pressure area which may bring snow/mix to the region by Friday night and Saturday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Snow gradually tapers off from west to east in eastern areas while to the west clouds may thin and break to allow partial sun. Final snow accumulations ranging from 1-4 inches inland to 4-8 inches coast, highest amounts RI and parts of SE MA especially the coastline and Cape Cod. Temperatures steady 20-25. Wind N to NNW 15-35 MPH with gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest along the coast. Blowing and drifting snow.

TONIGHT: Clearing west to east. Lows 14-19. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. PM snow/mix to rain. Low 20. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered PM snow showers. Low 18. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated AM snow showers. Low 13. High 33.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish, chance of snow at night. Low 11. High 34.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 21. High 35.

3:17PM

No big changes here, just a few minor adjustments. Another update later!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy with snow showers mainly RI and southeastern MA with minor accumulation. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow developing from south to north mainly after 10PM, may be moderate to heavy for a while before tapering off toward dawn. Snow accumulation 1-4 inches except 4-8 inches eastern Cape Ann and coastal Plymouth County MA southeastward through Cape Cod and the Islands. Some blowing and drifting snow. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH along the coast with higher gusts in all areas.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with lingering snow showers especially coastal locations, with another fluffy inch or two possible on Outer Cape Cod, then some breaking clouds from the west later. Highs struggle to reach the upper 20s. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Additional blowing snow.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny & windy. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow/mix midday to mix/rain showers later. Low 20. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy & windy. Scattered snow showers. Low 14. High 31.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy & breezy. Isolated snow showers. Low 13. High 33.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 12. High 32.

5:17PM

Let’s cut to the chase. The stupid computer models have been all over the place with this one. Why can’t it all be easy like the blizzard? Well it doesn’t work that way. The complexities of the atmosphere often overwhelm our man-made weather predictors. It’s just the nature of it. So when you have one model predicting traces to an inch or 2 of snow, another predicting a foot, and most of the others somewhere in between, what do you do? Throw darts? Roll dice? Guess? … You apply meteorology and hope for the best. That’s what I have done in thinking about what to forecast for this weekend’s weather.

After a mild Friday, a hint of the coming of Spring to some, a cold front will amble west to east across the region overnight and early Saturday, bringing a band of snow and rain showers to the region. The best chance of snow taking place will be over inland areas where it will cool sufficiently tonight before the clouds grow too thick. A slower temperature drop closer to the coast may leave the air marginal for supporting snow for a while. Either way, I’m only expecting minor snow accumulations where snow does occur from the first of this 2-part event. It’s the second part, Saturday night and early Sunday, that has many meteorologists in a tizzy, but a cooler head is going to prevail at WHW. Calmly forecasting the second part, in the form of a developing low pressure area, to explode over the water into a beast, but JUST too far east to give much of the area a huge snowstorm. And it will become cold enough for snow in all areas very quickly as it draws much colder air down from the north as it intensifies. There will likely be accumulating snow in all areas of eastern MA, RI, and southern NH, but for now all of the snow amounts in this forecast will be underneath double-digits. With such a close pass expected, there is virtually no margin for error and a slight jog either direction can potentially have drastic impact on snow amounts. So please stay tuned…

After the madness ends, late Sunday will just be plain windy and very cold, Monday (Presidents Day) will continue more of the same, but Tuesday will see rapid moderation in temperature and a chance of a minor precipitation event later in the day into the night, followed by a mostly dry but windy and colder middle of next week, based on current expected timing of weather systems.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Chance of snow and rain showers. Lows drop to the upper 20s inland and lower 30s coast. Wind SW around 10 MPH decreasing to calm for a while then NW up to 10 MPH toward dawn.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers becoming mostly snow showers during the morning, accumulating anywhere from a coating to 1 inch. Partial sunshine possible around midday before clouds thicken again in the afternoon. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow developing early, may be moderate to heavy for a while before tapering off toward dawn. Snow accumulation 2-5 inches except 5-9 inches eastern Cape Ann and coastal Plymouth County MA southeastward through Cape Cod and the Islands. Some blowing and drifting snow. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH along the coast with higher gusts in all areas.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds to start with lingering snow showers especially coastal locations, then some increasing sun from west to east during the afternoon. Highs struggle to reach the upper 20s. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Additional blowing snow.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny & windy. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of mix/rain showers late. Low 20. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy & windy. Scattered snow showers. Low 14. High 31.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy & breezy. Isolated snow showers. Low 13. High 33.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 12. High 32.

7:25AM

Hi everybody! Sorry for the short discussion & forecast following this. Bigger update later today… Leaning toward more of a miss than a hit for Saturday at this point. Some lighter snow during the day. Bigger punch of precip. stays offshore at night (if it comes further west we’ll have much more snow but leaning away from this at the moment).

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow and rain with up to a couple inches accumulation of snow mainly away from the coast. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 18. High 28.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 34.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 28. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.