High pressure will continue to keep control of our weather through Saturday with fair weather and a continued moderating temperature trend. An inverted trough of low pressure to the south New England will poke its nose into our business before the weekend is over, though, ending our run of nice weather. While some guidance is barging the rain in here by early Sunday, my current feeling is that while the clouds will overtake the region hastily, we may not see much in the way of rainfall that early unless you are south of Boston, which may be wet as early as the morning or midday with an initial burst of moisture. Areas to the west and north may not see it until the end of the day or evening hours. This detail will need fine-tuning. For now, just expect the weather to go downhill for the second half of the weekend in terms of at least cooler air with an easterly air flow, and lots of clouds, and wet weather arriving sooner or later. The unsettled weather continues into Monday with the inverted trough still bringing an onshore flow and periods of rain and drizzle to the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain possible mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Chance of rain further north later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 53-58. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

The weather may remain somewhat unsettled early in the period as the trough over the region weakens but hangs in place, waiting to be swept offshore by a cold front from the west sometime in the October 26-27 window. So the possibility of rain showers will be around during this time. Brief drying follows, but another low pressure system may bring additional rainfall to the region by the end of the period. This is a different outlook than what it appeared to be previously, and is not a high confidence forecast at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Very low confidence outlook. Leaning toward dry, cool weather to end the month, and another bout of unsettled weather from a low pressure system in the first days of November.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-20-2022

High pressure provides fair weather with a moderating temperature trend into the weekend, as the high center settles to the south and east of New England. During Sunday we’re going to see a wind shift to northeast and an increase in clouds from south to north (and maybe some lower ocean clouds near the coast) as low pressure approaches from the south.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45.Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Low pressure brings a good chance of rain October 24 then decays and lifts through the region with additional rain showers possible on October 25. A frontal boundary from the west may bring a rain shower at some point in the October 26-27 window otherwise the trend is back to fair and mild weather for the waning days of the month as the mean trough stays to the west and high pressure off the US East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

The large scale pattern doesn’t change all that much but may start to get a little more amplified, so we’ll have to watch for a more important storm system to start taking shape somewhere in the eastern US and our weather as a result will depend on where it is in proximity to this location. Right now I see an opportunity for one or two spokes of moisture to reach the region with rain chances but no full-fledged storm arrival. Something to watch the evolution of in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-19-2022

A few hours of unsettled weather to start the day today as a slow-moving cold front clears the coast. By later in the day, drier air will be making its return, and high pressure then takes over at the surface while a low pressure trough remains to our west from mid to late week. Initially, we cool down with the return of dry air for midweek, then warm up again as surface high pressure shifts to the southeast of New England by late week.

TODAY: Cloudy into midday with occasional rain showers and patchy fog. Breaking clouds leading to periods of sun afternoon – more sun by late day. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, becoming more gusty by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42.Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

High pressure hangs on with fair and mild weather expected to finish off the weekend October 23. Low pressure from the south brings the chance of rain for October 24 then weakens over the region while a frontal boundary moves in from the west with a chance of rain showers during October 25. The end of this forecast period is more uncertain. The pattern will still feature a trough of low pressure Midwest and Great Lakes and high pressure to the east. For our area this can mean either fair weather or additional unsettled weather as disturbances from the trough eject eastward, but can be thwarted by the high pressure area. For now, leaning toward fair weather over foul, but will have to keep an eye on it.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

The uncertainty that presents itself later in the 6-10 day period continues into the 11-15 day period as well with no big change in the overall weather pattern, so while we have some unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures it’s not possible to even attempt to nail down any details this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-18-2022

Our one bout of unsettled weather comes in the early part of this week. The large scale weather pattern still features a trough that spends most of its time center to our west in the Great Lakes and Midwest but sends the occasional disturbance our way. One such is moving in today and will take until about the middle of the day Tuesday to complete its journey across our region, bringing occasional wet weather with it this afternoon through Tuesday morning. High pressure approaches by midweek with cooler air but a return to dry weather. The high starts to shift to the east with continued fair weather but a late-week moderating temperature trend getting underway.

TODAY: Clouds thicken up – occasional rain showers arriving this afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and periods of rain showers. Thunderstorms also possible. Lows 46-53. Wind S up to 15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy into midday with occasional rain showers and patchy fog. Breaking clouds leading to periods of sun afternoon – more sun by late day. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, becoming more gusty by late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42.Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Mean trough position stays to the west for this period with surface high pressure in control here providing fair weather and moderating temperatures through the October 22-23 weekend. Continuing to watch potential low pressure to the south early the following week and a frontal system / disturbance moving in from the west as well later in the period with the next threat of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

No big changes in the pattern with the mean trough position oscillating between the Great Lakes / Upper Midwest and the Northeast. Except one or two fairly brief periods of unsettled weather here but dry weather much of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-17-2022

A simple Sunday forecast as high pressure brings fair and mild weather. Next, a broad trough of low pressure crosses the region from west to east Monday and Tuesday, bringing unsettled weather in the form of 2 main batches of rain, one Monday afternoon and a second one early Tuesday. This trough lifts out gradually but delivers a shot of cool, dry air for the middle of the coming week as high pressure builds back in at the surface.

TODAY: Sun, giving way to more clouds late. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers arrive overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind SE to S up to 15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy start with widespread rain showers, then a sun/cloud mix midday on. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42.Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Mean trough position stays to the west for this period with surface high pressure in control here providing fair weather and moderating temperatures, but we’ll still need to watch low pressure to the south later in the period. Right now the medium range guidance trends are to keep this system south of the region, but that’s not a certainty at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

No big changes in the pattern with the mean trough position oscillating between the Great Lakes / Upper Midwest and the Northeast. We should end up with one brief unsettled episode around a mid period air mass change, but it’s too soon for more precise timing and details.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-16-2022

Early this morning there are some “after-effects” of the weather system that went through yesterday. We have patchy stratus and fog both near the NH Seacoast and in interior valley locations, while a plume of high clouds behind the offshore frontal system crosses Cape Cod and the Islands. All of these are temporary and we’ll end up with a day of abundant sun and mild air as high pressure dominates the region. A weak and nearly dissipated cold front will cross the region from west to east tonight, but it will hardly be noticeable other than maybe any given location being 1 or 2 degrees cooler for a high temp on Sunday – another day dominated by high pressure with fair weather. You will notice though an increase in the high cloudiness later in the day, this being in advance of our next unsettled weather system. This system will be rotating around a low pressure trough to our west, and will bring a period of showers and rain to the region Monday, especially during the afternoon and night, before it exits the region on Tuesday. With the trough nudging eastward, we’ll have an indirect delivery of much cooler air later Tuesday and Wednesday, along with dry weather conditions.

TODAY: Limited sun early to mid morning Cape Cod, patchy clouds NH Seacoast and patchy fog and low clouds interior valleys early, then sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: A few clouds pass by. Lows 45-52. Wind SW-W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, becoming filtered later in the day. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely evening and a chance of rain showers overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 47-54. Wind SE to S up to 15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds with an early rain shower chance, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Mean trough position stays to the west for this period with surface high pressure in control here providing fair weather, below normal temperatures to start then a moderating trend. By the end of the period we may need to watch low pressure getting closer to our area from the south.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)

The greatest chance for unsettled weather comes at the start of the period pending the position of low pressure to the south and the expecting timing of a disturbance moving through from the west. A trough from the west and a stronger push of cooler / colder air from Canada may be ours later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-15-2022

A wave of low pressure has moved by us overnight as a cold front slowly approached, helping to enhance a fairly healthy rainfall event for most of the region, which will help to further reduce the drought. The final push of showers will move through this morning from west to east, including an additional downpour with possible gusty winds for a brief period of time. Behind this, we’ll dry out with breaking clouds, more sun, and a gusty breeze, although it will be a mild day and even a bit on the relatively humid side for several hours before drier air arrives from the west and southwest. So improvement does come and sets us up for a fairly nice weekend. The guaranteed nicest day is Saturday with lots of sun, a few clouds, and mild air with a west to southwest breeze at modest speeds. On Sunday we still may see some additional cloudiness in advance of another low pressure trough, but I’m pretty confident any rain showers stay away and it’s another nice day. Things change quickly later Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system, first warm front, then eventually slow moving cold front, brings rainfall back to the region during Monday (steadiest rainfall likely in the afternoon / evening) and lingering into Tuesday (in the form of showers). Still have to fine-tune that bout of unsettled weather for the forecast and will do so over the next few days…

TODAY: Cloudy with rain showers including some downpours ending from west to east later this morning except lingering near the MA East Coast and NH Seacoast into early afternoon and Cape Cod until about mid afternoon. Clouds break for sun southwest to northeast midday and afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely evening and a chance of rain showers overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SE to S up to 15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to variably cloudy with a good chance of rain showers. Highs 61-68. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Progression of a trough of low pressure to the east brings drier but much cooler air to the region during the middle of next week with continued mainly dry weather and slight temperature moderation toward the end of the period including the October 22-23 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)

The mean trough position stays in the Great Lakes to Northeast into late month. Early in this period it should be far enough west to allow additional unsettled weather including a potential significant rain event. Later on it should shift east with an early season shot of cold potentially arriving here – maybe even initiating the first snow showers of the season for at least some areas, or at least nearby.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-14-2022

A low pressure trough traversing the region from west to east through Friday will bring us a period of unsettled weather. If you step outside this morning you’ll already notice there has been a spike in humidity as a warm front passed the region during the early morning hours, boosting dew points. We’ll have a healthy southerly air flow in this warm air mass today and as the upper pattern pushes a surface cold front slowly into and across the region later today through the first half to two thirds of Friday, we’ll have an increase in rain shower activity, becoming most widespread tonight and early Friday when there can be downpours and even some thunder. A little low pressure area forming on the frontal boundary may delay its departure for a few hours during the day on Friday, but it looks like all of the rainfall should be offshore by mid afternoon, exiting Cape Cod lastly. In will flow drier air behind that for the upcoming weekend, but it will be a mild weekend as we maintain a southwesterly air flow both at the surface and aloft. Look for the sunniest day of the two weekend days Saturday. Sunday may feature more cloud cover at times as a disturbance approaches. For now, I am keeping that day’s forecast rain-free, although some guidance has hinted at the chance for some shower activity before the day is over, especially to the west, so this will be something to keep an eye on. Unsettled weather more certainly returns early next week as another trough and frontal system approach and move in from the west…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with intervals of sun during this morning. Generally overcast with an increased chance for showers southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some likely heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, above 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers including some downpours ending from west to east in the morning except lingering near the MA East Coast and NH Seacoast into early afternoon and Cape Cod until about mid afternoon. Clouds break for sun west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Low pressure trough overhead brings cooler air but still a rain shower chance October 18 then departs with dry/cool weather following that, until a moderating trend in temperature later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Progressive pattern but with the mean trough position Great Lakes to Northeast on the larger scale. This does mean a couple precipitation threats exist, but no long-lasting unsettled weather. Temperatures near to below normal.